Were the Mavs better off with Luka or Flagg and AD?

[Hornet Mania]

Since like 1990 the only #1 picks that are better than Luka are Shaq, Duncan, and LeBron. The likelihood that you get a better player is extremely low.

This is trivia a bit: Flagg is not an average #1 pick, he's on tier of Oden, AD, KD, Zion, and Luka as a prospect in post-LeBron/one-and-done era. It's far from being given (Zion and Oden, AD to some extent as well), but I don't think the chances that he'll become a top3-top5 player (Luka for now) are 'extremely low'. Unless you don't believe he's this type of prospect, but it's anyways different discussion than probability of #1 pick being better than Luka.

You're much higher on him than I am. I would put Flagg below all the prospects you listed pretty easily if I'm only considering how I felt about them entering the draft.

To me Flagg is more on par with Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin or Kyrie Irving. Clear number one pick, very safe, very likely going to be an all-star and possibly All-NBA. If he ended up at KD or Luka's tier in his prime that would be above expectations imo.

[The Master]

You're much higher on him than I am. I would put Flagg below all the prospects you listed pretty easily if I'm only considering how I felt about them entering the draft.

To me Flagg is more on par with Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin or Kyrie Irving. Clear number one pick, very safe, very likely going to be an all-star and possibly All-NBA. If he ended up at KD or Luka's tier in his prime that would be above expectations imo.

Flagg is over a year younger than Rose, and almost two years younger than Griffin when they were drafted, while being a better college player, with amazing trajectory of growth (shooting) in his draft year and crazy versatility -- that's why I'm extremely high on him vs 'regular' 1st draft picks like Towns, Kyrie, Edwards, Griffin etc. People forget that Flagg reclassified and he's ~the same age as Dwight or LeBron coming out from high school.

But yeah, if you're not as high on Flagg as me (and other people), the outlook of the whole Mavs' situation (re: thread) is obviously different.

[NO-KG-AI]

You're much higher on him than I am. I would put Flagg below all the prospects you listed pretty easily if I'm only considering how I felt about them entering the draft.

To me Flagg is more on par with Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin or Kyrie Irving. Clear number one pick, very safe, very likely going to be an all-star and possibly All-NBA. If he ended up at KD or Luka's tier in his prime that would be above expectations imo.

Flagg is over a year younger than Rose, and almost two years younger than Griffin when they were drafted, while being a better college player, with amazing trajectory of growth (shooting) in his draft year and crazy versatility -- that's why I'm extremely high on him vs 'regular' 1st draft picks like Towns, Kyrie, Edwards, Griffin etc. People forget that Flagg reclassified and he's ~the same age as Dwight or LeBron coming out from high school.

But yeah, if you're not as high on Flagg as me (and other people), the outlook of the whole Mavs' situation (re: thread) is obviously different.

I think he’s weirdly in between. I don’t feel about him like I did for LeBron, Zion, Wemby, Oden/Durant, AD, but I feel way better about him than I did with Rose, Towns, Wall, Griffin… guys who I thought were pretty likely to be at least stars.

But it might just be my own biases. He’s so good, but he doesn’t have the wow athleticism or freakish tools the other guys did, so it’s easier to underrate his impact IMO.

But my point was more that even guys are supposed lock MVP level guys don’t end up like Luka. Adding 30 something year old Davis to the mix hardly shifts the needle tbh.

[dc]

But it might just be my own biases. He’s so good, but he doesn’t have the wow athleticism or freakish tools the other guys did, so it’s easier to underrate his impact IMO.

He's a good passer and improved a lot shooting the ball over the year. He's also only 18 and has the type of frame that can carry more mass. I think those things bode well.

At the NBA level, he's not a freak athlete. He's a good athlete. Clearly in college, he was physically dominant but he's not likely to have same level of physical dominance in the NBA.

I don't think it's a Tyler Hansbrough situation where a guy just physically manhandled college opponents and then wasn't able to much of that at all in the NBA, but it's also not a situation like AD where the guy can just seamlessly dominate in the pros playing the exact same way he did in college.

[Black Jack]

Flagg won't get fat off beer & bbq so there's that.

[The Master]

I think he’s weirdly in between. I don’t feel about him like I did for LeBron, Zion, Wemby, Oden/Durant, AD, but I feel way better about him than I did with Rose, Towns, Wall, Griffin… guys who I thought were pretty likely to be at least stars.

But it might just be my own biases. He’s so good, but he doesn’t have the wow athleticism or freakish tools the other guys did, so it’s easier to underrate his impact IMO.

But my point was more that even guys are supposed lock MVP level guys don’t end up like Luka. Adding 30 something year old Davis to the mix hardly shifts the needle tbh.

Yeah, Flagg is such an interesting prospect because he doesn't have a 'wow effect' in any element (like AD with defense, Zion with athleticism, KD with combination of size and shooting touch, or Luka with on-ball skills) - but at the same time he's the most versatile 18yo that we've seen since LeBron perhaps (???), as he's a great defender, a very good athlete, a decent shooter, and point forward in the making on NBA level. And he's in high school age basically on top of that.

At the NBA level, he's not a freak athlete. He's a good athlete. Clearly in college, he was physically dominant but he's not likely to have same level of physical dominance in the NBA.

He'll be a great 'functional' athlete on NBA level IMHO with his skillset/athleticism/size/frame when he gets stronger. It's hard to project his scoring level and defensive impact (he'll be great, but All-NBA D level? It's not guaranteed) though.

[Deivork]

What are best case scenario player comparisons for Flagg? Naive on US college here... I heard Kirilenko...

Would you rather have 18 year old Kirilenko and 32 y.o. Davis? I voted Luka. I still hate this for Mavs fans. Such a shame.

[dc]

He'll be a great 'functional' athlete on NBA level IMHO with his skillset/athleticism/size/frame when he gets stronger. It's hard to project his scoring level and defensive impact (he'll be great, but All-NBA D level? It's not guaranteed) though.

Scoring is a bit unknown until we see how good his handle and first step are. We just didn't see much of it in college because he played as a "big". I feel good about his ability to shoot and pass.

Defensively he was a rim protector in college but he doesn't have the size to do this in the pros. As mentioned before, he could be sort of be a Lebron like "free safety" on that end of the floor and cover multiple spots on the floor.

[mademan]

What are best case scenario player comparisons for Flagg? Naive on US college here... I heard Kirilenko...

Would you rather have 18 year old Kirilenko and 32 y.o. Davis? I voted Luka. I still hate this for Mavs fans. Such a shame.

Probably Tatum.

[The Master]

What are best case scenario player comparisons for Flagg? Naive on US college here... I heard Kirilenko...

Would you rather have 18 year old Kirilenko and 32 y.o. Davis? I voted Luka. I still hate this for Mavs fans. Such a shame.

He was compared to Kirilenko or Pippen prior to the season. Then, he was shooting 39% from 3 on respectable volume and 84% from FT - and he's in different stratosphere as a prospect now. He had better shooting splits than Tatum (with shorter line) in Duke, while being younger, and that was his 'weak' point before the season.

Defensively he was a rim protector in college but he doesn't have the size to do this in the pros. As mentioned before, he could be sort of be a Lebron like "free safety" on that end of the floor and cover multiple spots on the floor.

Yeah, this is his role in the NBA, and he'll be very good at that, but hard to tell for now if his athleticism is good enough to get to the level of e.g. Thompson brothers defensively, especially considering his (potential) offensive volume.

[dc]

What are best case scenario player comparisons for Flagg? Naive on US college here... I heard Kirilenko...

Would you rather have 18 year old Kirilenko and 32 y.o. Davis? I voted Luka. I still hate this for Mavs fans. Such a shame.

There's no 1 for 1 comparison. ESPN did sort of a comparison article and it was mostly well done. Basically, you can compare elements of his game to Kawhi, Odom, Kirilenko and Tatum but he doesn't compare well as a whole to any single one of them.

He doesn't have the freakish wingspan of Kirilenko. That guy at his peak averaged 3bpg from the SF position, which is insane but Flagg looks to have significantly more upside offensively. He doesn't have the height or handle of Odom. Kawhi going from a role playing 3-D player his rookie year to a bonafide #1 option is simply unprecedented and you can't expect a repeat of that.

Tatum is probably his best comp in terms of size and potential. Flagg looks like he can be better defensively, which is significant because Tatum is pretty good on that end. Offensively, Tatum showed more of a game of a true wing a Duke and ability to get to the basket off the dribble. We have no idea how Flagg compares in this regard because he played more as a "big" in college. But Flagg looks like a superior passer at the same stage and his shooting improved as his college season progressed.

Flagg's best case scenario is he's Tatum with better passing on offense while on the other end he's some Kawhi/Marion/Battier type multi-positional defender.

[KrAzY3]

I think you still have to go with Luka, but you give it some consideration. Flagg is not a sure thing, he's a good looking prospect but there's a long list of good looking prospects that failed to become elite at the NBA level.

Now, if Flagg becomes a superstar then things start to look a bit different, but even if Flagg is just an All-Star, losing Luka is still the most painful thing because AD is aging and injury prone, pairing him on an overpaid contract in his late 30s, even with an All-Star is still not an ideal situation. So the issue there is by the time Flagg really starts to hit his stride, AD potentially becomes an albatross. The only way this situation is actually better for the Mavs is if AD stays healthy and Flagg is an immediate and remarkable success.

Now imagine Flagg and Luka playing alongside each other and how long they'd be good.

[Texas Chuck]

Not sure why we do this thread every other day but its still Luka.

[Texas Chuck]

Flagg won't get fat off beer & bbq so there's that.

Uh he's in Texas now. We got Shiner and we got GOAT BBQ. none of that Carolina slop. So there is a chance.

[reload141]

Dallas needs to sell on AD and Kyrie as soon as they can and build around Flagg.

The timelines don’t match up currently at all.

[maxpower8888]

I don't think Flagg will come into the league as dominant as Luka was. It might take him two or three seasons to become a bona fide star, at which point AD will be 34-35. So looking at it from the next couple of seasons, they were better off with Luka and Kyrie.

[Chokic]

Luka is the better individual offensive talent but I think Flagg is easier to win a championship with for more franchises bc his two way ability skillset is easier to plug into multiple style lineups whereas Luka archetype requires a very specific roster to compete for championship.
Comparing Luka and Flagg is like comparing Harden and Pippen imo. Now w/ Lukas weight and conditioning already this early in his stage of his career with hindsight it looks like Dallas came out w/the better end of the deal.

[ball_takes23]

Luka is the better individual offensive talent but I think Flagg is easier to win a championship with for more franchises bc his two way ability skillset is easier to plug into multiple style lineups whereas Luka archetype requires a very specific roster to compete for championship.
Comparing Luka and Flagg is like comparing Harden and Pippen imo. Now w/ Lukas weight and conditioning already this early in his stage of his career with hindsight it looks like Dallas came out w/the better end of the deal.

but the mavs basically had that specific roster. they were likely the second best team in the West with a healthy Luka and were setup to compete for championships for the next 3-4 years. the vast majority of teams would be better off with Flagg + AD but I think the Mavs would have been better off if they stuck with Luka.

[bledredwine]

If Luka resembles his normal level of play next year, it’s Luka by far. Everyone lives in the moment around here. Good for you all, embracing buddhism.

[tsherkin]

If Luka resembles his normal level of play next year, it’s Luka by far. Everyone lives in the moment around here.

This is what I'm saying. We have a superstar in his mid-20s, versus an unproven teenager and an injury-riddled big man. They were just in the Finals; they've clearly downgraded. They had a shot for the next couple seasons, and then punched the reset button hard. They won't be anywhere near the Finals while AD and Kyrie are in whatever is left of their respective primes, even if he DOES ultimately pan out as a superstar.

It's just a weird coping strategy to ask this question.