Official 2025 Offseason Thread

[eyriq]

"Timeline" is bunk...look at our own roster or any roster in the league.

Some guys get it quickly, some guys don't ever get it...the ones that take well into their extension to get it are rarer than either of the former two groups. The whole idea of a magic age where everyone "enters their prime" is just...

Contenders like Denver, Boston, and OKC were built by letting their cores grow into that 24-27 sweet spot, not by Gabriel-style flipping every 18 months. Blow your chips early and you end up like post-Gabriel Orlando, capped out, thin on talent, and still waiting to win.

[BadMofoPimp]

"Timeline" is bunk...look at our own roster or any roster in the league.

Some guys get it quickly, some guys don't ever get it...the ones that take well into their extension to get it are rarer than either of the former two groups. The whole idea of a magic age where everyone "enters their prime" is just...

Contenders like Denver, Boston, and OKC were built by letting their cores grow into that 24-27 sweet spot, not by Gabriel-style flipping every 18 months. Blow your chips early and you end up like post-Gabriel Orlando, capped out, thin on talent, and still waiting to win.

But, Magic fans here want to Gamble away the future with unlikely to make high risk moves being they only want to win now!!!

Remember losing Oladipo for that chump which never worked out aka panic moves.

[eyriq]

"Timeline" is bunk...look at our own roster or any roster in the league.

Some guys get it quickly, some guys don't ever get it...the ones that take well into their extension to get it are rarer than either of the former two groups. The whole idea of a magic age where everyone "enters their prime" is just...

Contenders like Denver, Boston, and OKC were built by letting their cores grow into that 24-27 sweet spot, not by Gabriel-style flipping every 18 months. Blow your chips early and you end up like post-Gabriel Orlando, capped out, thin on talent, and still waiting to win.

But, Magic fans here want to Gamble away the future with unlikely to make high risk moves being they only want to win now!!!

Remember losing Oladipo for that chump which never worked out aka panic moves.

Exactly, surviving the Hennigan era should have burned it into every Magic fan’s brain that pushing in early chips (hello, Oladipo-for-Ibaka) can crater a rebuild faster than any draft miss. Win-now trades are fine, but mistiming them just reloads the same pain we spent a decade digging out of.

[BadMofoPimp]

Contenders like Denver, Boston, and OKC were built by letting their cores grow into that 24-27 sweet spot, not by Gabriel-style flipping every 18 months. Blow your chips early and you end up like post-Gabriel Orlando, capped out, thin on talent, and still waiting to win.

But, Magic fans here want to Gamble away the future with unlikely to make high risk moves being they only want to win now!!!

Remember losing Oladipo for that chump which never worked out aka panic moves.

Exactly, surviving the Hennigan era should have burned it into every Magic fan’s brain that pushing in early chips (hello, Oladipo-for-Ibaka) can crater a rebuild faster than any draft miss. Win-now trades are fine, but mistiming them just reloads the same pain we spent a decade digging out of.

Also being a Pistons fan I remember how they conducted their builds in fantastic ways.

Back in the 80's, they traded Fan Favorite and leading scorer Adrian Dantley for Mark Aguirre, who was much better defensively and a system player and this was after they had success in the playoffs.

Then, in the early 2000's, the Pistons traded for Sheeeeed! once they reached a Playoff pinnacle and were patient enough to wait for the perfect deal. That catipulted them to Contenders.

Patience is key. Team is not required to make major moves this off-season, but make smart patient moves for the future.

[Idiosyncratic]

How does the same timeline argument happen once a week lol. Usually your best player needs to be extremely good/ borderline MVP level to win a title. Usually that takes some time. Evident by a ton of examples through the course of history. Yes we can point to some outliers and say it is possible to win it young, of course it is. We could have 7th year Shai/Brunson or 5th year Haliburton/Ant win it this year, that is pretty young, not crazy young, but still probably young compared to history. Thunder team as a whole is very young, but that team is so uniquely stacked with players and assets I don't even know if there is a historical comparison. I mean the Celtics and Cavs got knocked out of the playoffs in part because of injuries, we are already living somewhat in outlier land. Also there absolutely could be a shift in the new apron NBA.

Regardless of timeline are we really looking at Paolo and Franz and thinking they put the ball in the basket efficiently enough to say they missed any kind of contending window yet? Haliburton was averaging 18-10 on a 63 TS% his 1st season on the Pacers, that team sucked BTW so don't blame teammates for our guys shooting efficiency. Dude is modern day Chris Paul. It has taken Shai winning an MVP to be on the cusp of winning a title.

I agree we could have added better pieces on the fringes to help maybe win a playoff series and have a more competent offense. That is undeniable. But abandoning development and potentially getting up near the aprons sooner to do so and starting the clock would have made no sense. Our guys just are not on this level yet. But I do think there will be a shift in mindset this year, with year 4 Paolo, year 5 Franz that is still extremely young.

[Skybox]

"Timeline" is bunk...look at our own roster or any roster in the league.

Some guys get it quickly, some guys don't ever get it...the ones that take well into their extension to get it are rarer than either of the former two groups. The whole idea of a magic age where everyone "enters their prime" is just...

Contenders like Denver, Boston, and OKC were built by letting their cores grow into that 24-27 sweet spot, not by Gabriel-style flipping every 18 months. Blow your chips early and you end up like post-Gabriel Orlando, capped out, thin on talent, and still waiting to win.

that's a fun theory to cling to but the very teams you list as objections got there by making significant trades to augment their picks. DEN had to wait because their two stars weren't anywhere near as developed as Paolo & Franz in the same time span (that's an advantage for ORL-not something to ignore because of some half-baked theory that you want to impose on the player population in general). Even OKC, everyone's FO darling, with the youngest team in the league, got there by adding PERFECT vets (both tactically overpaid because they were able to jump on them BEFORE their kids -Chet & JayW & Cason got to extensions).

That's just a terrible choice of examples that do not support your point at all...and you left out IND, NYK, MIN, who built their teams quickly with good drafting (at the top of the draft-like us and BOS) and, especially, BIG courageous moves as soon as the window presented itself.

[eyriq]

"Timeline" is bunk...look at our own roster or any roster in the league.

Some guys get it quickly, some guys don't ever get it...the ones that take well into their extension to get it are rarer than either of the former two groups. The whole idea of a magic age where everyone "enters their prime" is just...

Contenders like Denver, Boston, and OKC were built by letting their cores grow into that 24-27 sweet spot, not by Gabriel-style flipping every 18 months. Blow your chips early and you end up like post-Gabriel Orlando, capped out, thin on talent, and still waiting to win.

that's a fun theory to cling to but the very teams you list as objections got there by making significant trades to augment their picks. DEN had to wait because their two stars weren't anywhere near as developed as Paolo & Franz in the same time span (that's an advantage for ORL-not something to ignore because of some half-baked theory that you want to impose on the player population in general). Even OKC, everyone's FO darling, with the youngest team in the league, got there by adding PERFECT vets (both tactically overpaid because they were able to jump on them BEFORE their kids -Chet & JayW & Cason got to extensions).

That's just a terrible choice of examples that do not support your point at all...and you left out IND, NYK, MIN, who built their teams quickly with good drafting (at the top of the draft-like us and BOS) and, especially, BIG courageous moves as soon as the window presented itself.

Shoving assets out the door before Paolo and Franz even reach their efficiency prime isn’t “courageous,” it’s rerunning the Oladipo-for-Ibaka disaster and calling it strategy.

[Idiosyncratic]

"Timeline" is bunk...look at our own roster or any roster in the league.

Some guys get it quickly, some guys don't ever get it...the ones that take well into their extension to get it are rarer than either of the former two groups. The whole idea of a magic age where everyone "enters their prime" is just...

Contenders like Denver, Boston, and OKC were built by letting their cores grow into that 24-27 sweet spot, not by Gabriel-style flipping every 18 months. Blow your chips early and you end up like post-Gabriel Orlando, capped out, thin on talent, and still waiting to win.

that's a fun theory to cling to but the very teams you list as objections got there by making significant trades to augment their picks. DEN had to wait because their two stars weren't anywhere near as developed as Paolo & Franz in the same time span (that's an advantage for ORL-not something to ignore because of some half-baked theory that you want to impose on the player population in general). Even OKC, everyone's FO darling, with the youngest team in the league, got there by adding PERFECT vets (both tactically overpaid because they were able to jump on them BEFORE their kids -Chet & JayW & Cason got to extensions).

That's just a terrible choice of examples that do not support your point at all...and you left out IND, NYK, MIN, who built their teams quickly with good drafting (at the top of the draft-like us and BOS) and, especially, BIG courageous moves as soon as the window presented itself.

2nd year Jokic was better than Paolo and Franz are now IMO, certainly 3rd year Jokic. We are overestimating how good our guys are because of an OK record one year in a terrible terrible conference. Top teams of the East are fine, but so many free wins against bottom feeders to inflate record.

Nuggets added Grant before Jokic's 5th season, Gordon in Jokic's 6th season
Pacers added Siakam during Haliburton's 4th season
Knicks traded for everyone and attracted Brunson in FA because New York/ his dad, their build is nothing like ours.
OKC signed Hartenstein and traded for Caruso before Shai's 7th season. I don't even consider these as high magnitude moves, on par with our Caldwell-Pope signing, but obviously much smarter fits.
Minnesota traded for Gobert before Ant's 3rd season, but also had ALL-NBA KAT already on roster.

Paolo has not started his 4th season. Even if you look at those gutsy moves, they on average happened later than we currently are on our timeline. If they make a major move this offseason then they did stuff before even those teams. If they wait til next season then they are on like the same schedule. Also just ignoring windows, I just don't think our stars are good enough yet, you can guard them by letting them shoot. Mose's defense does the heavy lifting for our wins, but everyone can defend in the playoffs. I really don't think they have been developing too long. I respect the view of those who think they have, but I really don't think they've missed out on much.

I can agree that our offense is uniquely bad and could have been addressed to some degree instead of re-treading Harris, Cole, Fultz etc. Jett pick was also horrible. I don't think the FO has been perfect or even great, but I just don't think there has been too much development. Still so early.

[Skybox]

Contenders like Denver, Boston, and OKC were built by letting their cores grow into that 24-27 sweet spot, not by Gabriel-style flipping every 18 months. Blow your chips early and you end up like post-Gabriel Orlando, capped out, thin on talent, and still waiting to win.

that's a fun theory to cling to but the very teams you list as objections got there by making significant trades to augment their picks. DEN had to wait because their two stars weren't anywhere near as developed as Paolo & Franz in the same time span (that's an advantage for ORL-not something to ignore because of some half-baked theory that you want to impose on the player population in general). Even OKC, everyone's FO darling, with the youngest team in the league, got there by adding PERFECT vets (both tactically overpaid because they were able to jump on them BEFORE their kids -Chet & JayW & Cason got to extensions).

That's just a terrible choice of examples that do not support your point at all...and you left out IND, NYK, MIN, who built their teams quickly with good drafting (at the top of the draft-like us and BOS) and, especially, BIG courageous moves as soon as the window presented itself.

2nd year Jokic was better than Paolo and Franz are now IMO, certainly 3rd year Jokic. We are overestimating how good our guys are because of an OK record one year in a terrible terrible conference. Top teams of the East are fine, but so many free wins against bottom feeders to inflate record.

Nuggets added Grant before Jokic's 5th season, Gordon in Jokic's 6th season
Pacers added Siakam during Haliburton's 4th season
Knicks traded for everyone and attracted Brunson in FA because New York/ his dad, their build is nothing like ours.
OKC signed Hartenstein and traded for Caruso before Shai's 7th season. I don't even consider these as high magnitude moves, on par with our Caldwell-Pope signing, but obviously much smarter fits.
Minnesota traded for Gobert before Ant's 3rd season, but also had ALL-NBA KAT already on roster.

Paolo has not started his 4th season. Even if you look at those gutsy moves, they on average happened later than we currently are on our timeline. If they make a major move this offseason then they did stuff before even those teams. If they wait til next season then they are on like the same schedule. Also just ignoring windows, I just don't think our stars are good enough yet, you can guard them by letting them shoot. Mose's defense does the heavy lifting for our wins, but everyone can defend in the playoffs. I really don't think they have been developing too long. I respect the view of those who think they have, but I really don't think they've missed out on much.

I can agree that our offense is uniquely bad and could have been addressed to some degree instead of re-treading Harris, Cole, Fultz etc. Jett pick was also horrible. I don't think the FO has been perfect or even great, but I just don't think there has been too much development. Still so early.

Grossly disagree with most of this and raise you a

"How big a deal was the second apron during that slow development in DEN ?"
"They traded for Shai, his odometer wasn't turned back upon the trade"
You don't think Caruso and Hartenstein signings are high magnitude...ok, but they are very expensive, timely, perfect fits...finishing moves to contend
"MIN is loaded with vets...but their best player, by a mile, is a kid...they might not be a playoff team without Ant. He's not just along for the ride on a vet team"
"NYK build is nothing like ours - correct...they didn't get there by being patient and slowly growing like a lawn"

Paolo and Franz are way ahead of these guys in terms of where they are at 3 and 4 years in (3 and 4 - not newcomers anymore) and, even if they weren't, new CBA changes things. Pumping the brakes is death while you're giving massive extensions to your home-grown core.

[Idiosyncratic]

that's a fun theory to cling to but the very teams you list as objections got there by making significant trades to augment their picks. DEN had to wait because their two stars weren't anywhere near as developed as Paolo & Franz in the same time span (that's an advantage for ORL-not something to ignore because of some half-baked theory that you want to impose on the player population in general). Even OKC, everyone's FO darling, with the youngest team in the league, got there by adding PERFECT vets (both tactically overpaid because they were able to jump on them BEFORE their kids -Chet & JayW & Cason got to extensions).

That's just a terrible choice of examples that do not support your point at all...and you left out IND, NYK, MIN, who built their teams quickly with good drafting (at the top of the draft-like us and BOS) and, especially, BIG courageous moves as soon as the window presented itself.

2nd year Jokic was better than Paolo and Franz are now IMO, certainly 3rd year Jokic. We are overestimating how good our guys are because of an OK record one year in a terrible terrible conference. Top teams of the East are fine, but so many free wins against bottom feeders to inflate record.

Nuggets added Grant before Jokic's 5th season, Gordon in Jokic's 6th season
Pacers added Siakam during Haliburton's 4th season
Knicks traded for everyone and attracted Brunson in FA because New York/ his dad, their build is nothing like ours.
OKC signed Hartenstein and traded for Caruso before Shai's 7th season. I don't even consider these as high magnitude moves, on par with our Caldwell-Pope signing, but obviously much smarter fits.
Minnesota traded for Gobert before Ant's 3rd season, but also had ALL-NBA KAT already on roster.

Paolo has not started his 4th season. Even if you look at those gutsy moves, they on average happened later than we currently are on our timeline. If they make a major move this offseason then they did stuff before even those teams. If they wait til next season then they are on like the same schedule. Also just ignoring windows, I just don't think our stars are good enough yet, you can guard them by letting them shoot. Mose's defense does the heavy lifting for our wins, but everyone can defend in the playoffs. I really don't think they have been developing too long. I respect the view of those who think they have, but I really don't think they've missed out on much.

I can agree that our offense is uniquely bad and could have been addressed to some degree instead of re-treading Harris, Cole, Fultz etc. Jett pick was also horrible. I don't think the FO has been perfect or even great, but I just don't think there has been too much development. Still so early.

Grossly disagree with most of this and raise you a

"How big a deal was the second apron during that slow development in DEN ?"
"They traded for Shai, his odometer wasn't turned back upon the trade"
You don't think Caruso and Hartenstein signings are high magnitude...ok, but they are very expensive, timely, perfect fits...finishing moves to contend
"MIN is loaded with vets...but their best player, by a mile, is a kid...they might not be a playoff team without Ant. He's not just along for the ride on a vet team"
"NYK build is nothing like ours - correct...they didn't get there by being patient and slowly growing like a lawn"

Paolo and Franz are way ahead of these guys in terms of where they are at 3 and 4 years in (3 and 4 - not newcomers anymore) and, even if they weren't, new CBA changes things. Pumping the brakes is death while you're giving massive extensions to your home-grown core.

They traded for Shai, but a rebuilding trade, not a whole lot different than us trading for the pick that led to Franz.

I'm just saying all those "gutsy" moves happened on average later than if our FO does something this offseason. I feel like that is worth mentioning Suddenly if our FO makes a big trade, Caldwell-Pope and a big trade back to back years means we have uber aggressive FO trying to win with young core. If they don't do anything sure, complaints are valid, well unless of course they make a big deadline move. I still say let's wait and see, I mean we don't really have a choice anyway.

[Skybox]

Contenders like Denver, Boston, and OKC were built by letting their cores grow into that 24-27 sweet spot, not by Gabriel-style flipping every 18 months. Blow your chips early and you end up like post-Gabriel Orlando, capped out, thin on talent, and still waiting to win.

that's a fun theory to cling to but the very teams you list as objections got there by making significant trades to augment their picks. DEN had to wait because their two stars weren't anywhere near as developed as Paolo & Franz in the same time span (that's an advantage for ORL-not something to ignore because of some half-baked theory that you want to impose on the player population in general). Even OKC, everyone's FO darling, with the youngest team in the league, got there by adding PERFECT vets (both tactically overpaid because they were able to jump on them BEFORE their kids -Chet & JayW & Cason got to extensions).

That's just a terrible choice of examples that do not support your point at all...and you left out IND, NYK, MIN, who built their teams quickly with good drafting (at the top of the draft-like us and BOS) and, especially, BIG courageous moves as soon as the window presented itself.

Shoving assets out the door before Paolo and Franz even reach their efficiency prime isn’t “courageous,” it’s rerunning the Oladipo-for-Ibaka disaster and calling it strategy.

Like home-grown Giddey for Caruso?
Like home-grown Marcus Smart for Porzingis?
Like home-grown Quickley and Barrett for OG?
Like home-grown KAT for journeymen Randle and DDV?
Like 3 frps and junk for Siakim?
Like 5 frps for Bridges?
*lots of courageous moves that are working. Some don't, some do - you're painting with a broad brush...Like OrlandoNo. some trades are bad. Not all trades are bad trades.

Do you think Presti cares that Giddey is doing well in CHI? Team first!

[eyriq]

that's a fun theory to cling to but the very teams you list as objections got there by making significant trades to augment their picks. DEN had to wait because their two stars weren't anywhere near as developed as Paolo & Franz in the same time span (that's an advantage for ORL-not something to ignore because of some half-baked theory that you want to impose on the player population in general). Even OKC, everyone's FO darling, with the youngest team in the league, got there by adding PERFECT vets (both tactically overpaid because they were able to jump on them BEFORE their kids -Chet & JayW & Cason got to extensions).

That's just a terrible choice of examples that do not support your point at all...and you left out IND, NYK, MIN, who built their teams quickly with good drafting (at the top of the draft-like us and BOS) and, especially, BIG courageous moves as soon as the window presented itself.

Shoving assets out the door before Paolo and Franz even reach their efficiency prime isn’t “courageous,” it’s rerunning the Oladipo-for-Ibaka disaster and calling it strategy.

Like home-grown Giddey for Caruso?
Like home-grown Marcus Smart for Porzingis?
Like home-grown Quickley and Barrett for OG?
Like home-grown KAT for journeymen Randle and DDV?
Like 3 frps and junk for Siakim?
Like 5 frps for Bridges?
*lots of courageous moves that are working. Some don't, some do - you're painting with a broad brush...Like OrlandoNo. some trades are bad. Not all trades are bad trades.

Giddey-for-Caruso, Smart-for-KP, Quickley/Barrett-for-OG—all came after those teams had already proven they could win playoff series, so they were polishing a window, not forcing one open.

[Skybox]

Shoving assets out the door before Paolo and Franz even reach their efficiency prime isn’t “courageous,” it’s rerunning the Oladipo-for-Ibaka disaster and calling it strategy.

Like home-grown Giddey for Caruso?
Like home-grown Marcus Smart for Porzingis?
Like home-grown Quickley and Barrett for OG?
Like home-grown KAT for journeymen Randle and DDV?
Like 3 frps and junk for Siakim?
Like 5 frps for Bridges?
*lots of courageous moves that are working. Some don't, some do - you're painting with a broad brush...Like OrlandoNo. some trades are bad. Not all trades are bad trades.

Giddey-for-Caruso, Smart-for-KP, Quickley/Barrett-for-OG—all came after those teams had already proven they could win playoff series, so they were polishing a window, not forcing one open.

You're just digging in...taking CLE to 7 games last year was evidence enough - led by a killer in his 2nd year. Heading into the same summer with all of your picks + a couple extra and more cap than anybody...Add in the fact that the East could be wide open for a short time and, again, the CBA wasn't as punitive just a couple of years ago...the GM game has changed. Windows are much smaller...when you get close, you need to smash it in before it slams.

[BadMofoPimp]

Like home-grown Giddey for Caruso?
Like home-grown Marcus Smart for Porzingis?
Like home-grown Quickley and Barrett for OG?
Like home-grown KAT for journeymen Randle and DDV?
Like 3 frps and junk for Siakim?
Like 5 frps for Bridges?
*lots of courageous moves that are working. Some don't, some do - you're painting with a broad brush...Like OrlandoNo. some trades are bad. Not all trades are bad trades.

Giddey-for-Caruso, Smart-for-KP, Quickley/Barrett-for-OG—all came after those teams had already proven they could win playoff series, so they were polishing a window, not forcing one open.

You're just digging in...taking CLE to 7 games last year was evidence enough - led by a killer in his 2nd year. Heading into the same summer with all of your picks + a couple extra and more cap than anybody...Add in the fact that the East could be wide open for a short time and, again, the CBA wasn't as punitive just a couple of years ago...the GM game has changed. Windows are much smaller...when you get close, you need to smash it in before it slams.

Not to mention that the Magic already have Suggs, Franz and Paolo whereas Knicks really only had Brunson and Randle on that team. Thus, they could add a bunch of large contracts.

[pepe1991]

Skybox is smacking them

Some people simply can't get through their heads that after 2025-26 Magic will have $120M in books for Suggs, Franz and Paolo alone.

And all those alleged "big moves down the road" will be impossible without trading one.

All the cheap years of Franz and Suggs are already wasted. They start next season at $35M & 41,7M price tage.

Paolo's can also get kicker from designed rookie max where his average salary can skyrocket to $60M a year, in that case 3 of them would cost around $130-135M.
Paolo can make over 5 years around $294M i think ( 5% bonus kicker)


Some people simply don't get it. by the time "TIMELINE " fits you, you can be in situation where all you can afford are bums who you kept re-singing because you can't afford anything else.
Like, why Suns are so bad? Because of Booker, Durant and Beal? No, but because they are too expensive to have good cast around them.
Why Wolves had to let Towns go? Because he sucks? Nop. Too expensive.


This is why Presti's move was so brilliant, this is why Wolves cashing chips with young Edwards was smart and why not waiting for ages for Haliburton worked for Pacers.

People need to forget old nba ways. Second apron will make teams break stars in their mid/ late 20s, especially as we approach super-max contracts that will go to $70M.

In new nba erea you will have raise and fall within several years. Celtics will be first victim of it, title in 2024, and probably retool and little rebuild due Tatum injury and salary hell.

I still don't see how Magic can avoid first apron this year.

[Idiosyncratic]

Skybox is smacking them

Some people simply can't get through their heads that after 2025-26 Magic will have $120M in books for Suggs, Franz and Paolo alone.

And all those alleged "big moves down the road" will be impossible without trading one.

All the cheap years of Franz and Suggs are already wasted. They start next season at $35M & 41,7M price tage.

Paolo's can also get kicker from designed rookie max where his average salary can skyrocket to $60M a year, in that case 3 of them would cost around $130-135M.
Paolo can make over 5 years around $294M i think ( 5% bonus kicker)


Some people simply don't get it. by the time "TIMELINE " fits you, you can be in situation where all you can afford are bums who you kept re-singing because you can't afford anything else.
Like, why Suns are so bad? Because of Booker, Durant and Beal? No, but because they are too expensive to have good cast around them.
Why Wolves had to let Towns go? Because he sucks? Nop. Too expensive.


This is why Presti's move was so brilliant, this is why Wolves cashing chips with young Edwards was smart and why not waiting for ages for Haliburton worked for Pacers.

People need to forget old nba ways. Second apron will make teams break stars in their mid/ late 20s, especially as we approach super-max contracts that will go to $70M.

In new nba erea you will have raise and fall within several years. Celtics will be first victim of it, title in 2024, and probably retool and little rebuild due Tatum injury and salary hell.

I still don't see how Magic can avoid first apron this year.

With all due respect, you weren't winning crap led by year 2-3 Paolo.

I agree maybe we could see windows sped up partially because of the aprons, but I think your argument works better with regard to modern big 3s being bad. Luckily the rookie max is smaller and Suggs' deal is descending.

I would rather go all-in with my window with my players in their 5th-8th years with all my assets intact than to try to make some crazy moves to win when my whole core is in their 2-4th seasons and be left with less to trade to support their prime/likely title years, is that crazy? They still could do that and keep all 3, they could even acquire an expensive guard and eat the apron for a couple of years if they really truly thought it was time to go all-in on a 2-3 year window. Believe it or not teams will still try to have sustained success.

Also again Haliburton was in year 4 when they acquired Siakam, Turner their 2nd highest paid player was in year 9. Paolo hasn't even reached year 4 yet, if the Magic make a move this summer it is literally before the Pacers made a big move, what are we even arguing here? Thunder made their moves with Shai going into year 7, JDub and Chet the exact same season as Paolo, again we would have made a move before them if we make a major one this summer. We haven't even passed when these teams made their moves yet, why are we arguing about something that hasn't happened?

Most here are OK with win-now moves going forward, probably would be some divide on adding a max guy like Trae and forcing a true 2-3 year window, but most want some win-now acquisitions.

[Idiosyncratic]

Also the fact that we have 3 expensive young players makes our situation unique anyway. Hard to just plop a Siakam in and avoid aprons. Wolves I don't even think are a good example because they were adding Gobert not just to Ant, but to Kat who was an older all-nba level player himself. They didn't win together and already had to trade KAT for financial flexibility. We'll see what happens this year.

Thunder will have a similar issue and we will see how they navigate it. Also while Hartenstein and Caruso were nice moves they weren't really any more expensive than our Wendell and Caldwell-Pope contracts. They picked better targets obviously, but I mean we also signed contracts like that last offseason.

You can definitely argue our targets we signed were trash (they were). But as far as making franchise propelling trades to support a young core, I don't really see us running behind other teams that much. If they do nothing this offseason then I think that argument would make a lot more sense.

[Skybox]

2nd year Jokic was better than Paolo and Franz are now IMO, certainly 3rd year Jokic. We are overestimating how good our guys are because of an OK record one year in a terrible terrible conference. Top teams of the East are fine, but so many free wins against bottom feeders to inflate record.

Nuggets added Grant before Jokic's 5th season, Gordon in Jokic's 6th season
Pacers added Siakam during Haliburton's 4th season
Knicks traded for everyone and attracted Brunson in FA because New York/ his dad, their build is nothing like ours.
OKC signed Hartenstein and traded for Caruso before Shai's 7th season. I don't even consider these as high magnitude moves, on par with our Caldwell-Pope signing, but obviously much smarter fits.
Minnesota traded for Gobert before Ant's 3rd season, but also had ALL-NBA KAT already on roster.

Paolo has not started his 4th season. Even if you look at those gutsy moves, they on average happened later than we currently are on our timeline. If they make a major move this offseason then they did stuff before even those teams. If they wait til next season then they are on like the same schedule. Also just ignoring windows, I just don't think our stars are good enough yet, you can guard them by letting them shoot. Mose's defense does the heavy lifting for our wins, but everyone can defend in the playoffs. I really don't think they have been developing too long. I respect the view of those who think they have, but I really don't think they've missed out on much.

I can agree that our offense is uniquely bad and could have been addressed to some degree instead of re-treading Harris, Cole, Fultz etc. Jett pick was also horrible. I don't think the FO has been perfect or even great, but I just don't think there has been too much development. Still so early.

Grossly disagree with most of this and raise you a

"How big a deal was the second apron during that slow development in DEN ?"
"They traded for Shai, his odometer wasn't turned back upon the trade"
You don't think Caruso and Hartenstein signings are high magnitude...ok, but they are very expensive, timely, perfect fits...finishing moves to contend
"MIN is loaded with vets...but their best player, by a mile, is a kid...they might not be a playoff team without Ant. He's not just along for the ride on a vet team"
"NYK build is nothing like ours - correct...they didn't get there by being patient and slowly growing like a lawn"

Paolo and Franz are way ahead of these guys in terms of where they are at 3 and 4 years in (3 and 4 - not newcomers anymore) and, even if they weren't, new CBA changes things. Pumping the brakes is death while you're giving massive extensions to your home-grown core.

They traded for Shai, but a rebuilding trade, not a whole lot different than us trading for the pick that led to Franz.

I'm just saying all those "gutsy" moves happened on average later than if our FO does something this offseason. I feel like that is worth mentioning Suddenly if our FO makes a big trade, Caldwell-Pope and a big trade back to back years means we have uber aggressive FO trying to win with young core. If they don't do anything sure, complaints are valid, well unless of course they make a big deadline move. I still say let's wait and see, I mean we don't really have a choice anyway.

Fair enough...but last summer would have made a lot more sense. They did make a similar move, just the wrong one, imo. It's not like KCP was brought in to grow up with our young core. He was brought in like a Caruso or Hartenstein. KCP didn't fill any gaps or "complete" any lineup, he's just a good player who really didn't bring anything new to ORL.

[Idiosyncratic]

Grossly disagree with most of this and raise you a

"How big a deal was the second apron during that slow development in DEN ?"
"They traded for Shai, his odometer wasn't turned back upon the trade"
You don't think Caruso and Hartenstein signings are high magnitude...ok, but they are very expensive, timely, perfect fits...finishing moves to contend
"MIN is loaded with vets...but their best player, by a mile, is a kid...they might not be a playoff team without Ant. He's not just along for the ride on a vet team"
"NYK build is nothing like ours - correct...they didn't get there by being patient and slowly growing like a lawn"

Paolo and Franz are way ahead of these guys in terms of where they are at 3 and 4 years in (3 and 4 - not newcomers anymore) and, even if they weren't, new CBA changes things. Pumping the brakes is death while you're giving massive extensions to your home-grown core.

They traded for Shai, but a rebuilding trade, not a whole lot different than us trading for the pick that led to Franz.

I'm just saying all those "gutsy" moves happened on average later than if our FO does something this offseason. I feel like that is worth mentioning Suddenly if our FO makes a big trade, Caldwell-Pope and a big trade back to back years means we have uber aggressive FO trying to win with young core. If they don't do anything sure, complaints are valid, well unless of course they make a big deadline move. I still say let's wait and see, I mean we don't really have a choice anyway.

Fair enough...but last summer would have made a lot more sense. They did make a similar move, just the wrong one, imo. It's not like KCP was brought in to grow up with our young core. He was brought in like a Caruso or Hartenstein. KCP didn't fill any gaps or "complete" any lineup, he's just a good player who really didn't bring anything new to ORL.

Yeah, I don't even really disagree with what you guys are saying, I don't necessarily think you are wrong here. I do believe with the new CBA we could see younger teams winning titles, I do think windows could be smaller for sure. I just personally look at Paolo and Franz and to me they seem they aren't championship level yet so I have had no problem with development and making picks. Regardless of age that is just how I have felt. I am trending toward thinking it is time to buy and start making the next step. I believe both have gotten better each year and with another step forward and additions they can start making serious noise now.

But I do agree 100% Weltman could have made much better moves without messing up our salary or compromising too many picks. They could have made moves that helped them win a round in the playoffs and maybe that experience could be the difference in a future title, very possible. I agree with that stuff completely, I'm not trying to sit here and say I think he has done a great job. I just don't think we have missed any kind of window at all personally and think they should be OK assuming they start adding the right type of pieces. I am mostly content they still have most of their assets still to try and take the next step. Could be better, could be worse. Except for the Jett pick, I don't think it can be worse than that.

[Skybox]

It seems counterintuitive but, Beal expires when KCP does and when WCJ is jumping from $18m to 19.5m. It could be kind of a cyclical thing. We send out nothing but guaranteed deals for Beal's 2 insane years of $53.7m and $55m with the understanding that:
-if it works, we're a really good team. Beal doesn't suck, he's just WAY overpaid and placed horribly on PHX with KD and Booker outranking him.
-Summer of 27, we have a massive deal coming off the books or we renegotiate NEXT summmer when his one remaining year is a PO. Not saying he'll take some punitive pay cut - but maybe there's room for discussion if he likes what's happening and wants to stick around for a few more seasons.
-Very worst scenario, he's gone after two bad years...right around the time that some are arguing that our core will be "ready"
-We don't give up any picks to get him, so we're building with inexpensive guys.
-On paper, Beal is undeniably the right kind of player for our starting lineup...the contract and fit in PHX is what made him an albatross
-When Beal expires or re-negotiates, Suggs' "massive deal" will be less than $30m for three additional year
-Beal has mentioned warm weather and I can't imagine a more significant role elsewhere on a good defensive team in need of a General who scores

Not saying it's right, but we gotta think outside the box if we want to take a leap.

ORL sends: KCP ($21.6m ), Cole Anthony ($13.1m), WCJ ($10.9m), Jett ($5.5m) = $51.1m
PHX sends: Beal ($53.7 m) and #29

IF PHX is really desperate to move off Beal, we insist on follow up...
#2...completely separate deal (wink wink) after they find themselves out of the 2nd apron (move KD?) or Grayson Allen to BRK for a late frp?
ORL sends: Caleb Houstan, Goga, #46
PHX sends: Ryan Dunn, Royce O'neal

Harris, CoJo gone (if Mose/FO thinks AB ready for more or draftee feels strong on-ball)

Maxime Raynaud at #16, Walter Clayton at #25, Kam Jones, Broome, Saraf or whoever slides at #29, Tyrese Proctor at #57
(They're certainly not ALL going to make the cut, but if 1 finds their way into the rotation and 2 are on the fringe and rising...)

We use all three draft picks in hopes of 1 or so early contributors and, maybe, someone like Clayton who might even make Beal expendable in 2 seasons with a similar game. The trade leaves us thin at C...we get Raynaud at #16, pick up a vet min goon like Miles Plumlee and we have Moe due back in December (on a reduced 2 year deal after declining his $11m option). In 2 years, Moe and Beal and Goga and Black are expiring, so we can decide what's next. Honestly, I'd ship out Goga and get by with a Plumlee-type and a smaller lineup, at times with Paolo/Isaac/Franz (smaller?-all 6'10+) with Beal, AB, and Suggs pushing it more.

Plumlee, Raynaud, Isaac (Moe)
Paolo, Isaac, Dunn
Franz, O'neal, Dunn
Suggs, AB, Queen or #29
Beal, AB, Clayton