Celtics, Mavericks, Washington - Jrue

[brackdan70]

Dallas sint giving up any two of PJ/Naji/Gaff for Jrue Holiday at this juncture of his career and contract. Completely nonsensical. The dude is close to washed

Washed?
He might be in two years but he is still really solid on both ends of the floor.
The first point is legit though.

[psman2]

Dallas sint giving up any two of PJ/Naji/Gaff for Jrue Holiday at this juncture of his career and contract. Completely nonsensical. The dude is close to washed

Washed?
He might be in two years but he is still really solid on both ends of the floor.
The first point is legit though.

IF Jrue was a FA he wouldn't get his current contract. He would likely be viewed similar to how Klay was this past offseason, a former great player that might have some juice left for the right team. Even with the little cap space available this year, teams will find ways to pay desired players via a SNT and salary dumps. IMO Jrue likely would get something like a 3/65-70m from a team that really wants him still if he was a FA. So some 30-35 million overpaid to a team that wants him, 25-30% overpaid would be my estimation to the team that would want him the most.

Like if he was a FA right now, and Boston was determined to resign him what would you want that contract to look like? The money issues Boston find itself in is going to be hard to ignore, but other teams are likely going to face those some money issues too with that contract too eventually.

[nate33]

Dallas sint giving up any two of PJ/Naji/Gaff for Jrue Holiday at this juncture of his career and contract. Completely nonsensical. The dude is close to washed

Washed?
He might be in two years but he is still really solid on both ends of the floor.
The first point is legit though.

IF Jrue was a FA he wouldn't get his current contract. He would likely be viewed similar to how Klay was this past offseason, a former great player that might have some juice left for the right team. Even with the little cap space available this year, teams will find ways to pay desired players via a SNT and salary dumps. IMO Jrue likely would get something like a 3/65-70m from a team that really wants him still if he was a FA. So some 30-35 million overpaid to a team that wants him, 25-30% overpaid would be my estimation to the team that would want him the most.

Like if he was a FA right now, and Boston was determined to resign him what would you want that contract to look like? The money issues Boston find itself in is going to be hard to ignore, but other teams are likely going to face those some money issues too with that contract too eventually.

I think even this estimate is generous given that he will be 35 years old in 3 weeks. Maybe he could fetch 2-years at $20M per, but any longer deal would have to reflect that he will likely be pretty useless 3 years from now. A 3-year deal would probably only get him roughly MLE money.

[penbeast0]

If the Celtics can't move Jrue, they could probably move White for a decent package. He's a similar but lesser player but younger and healthier. Move Pritchard up in minutes, limit how much you rely on Jrue.

[hugepatsfan]

I think you guys are really underrating Jrue. He's still really, really good. If his contract was only 2 years, $67.2M (exactly like it is now without the last year tacked on) we'd be talking about BOS getting expiring money and a 1st round pick in the 20s. Maybe in the teens if there was a right mix of teams that expected to be potential deep playoff run and had multi year salary to send back.

The problem is that he does have that 3rd year and BOS is very inflexible in terms of the salary matching they can take back. Very few teams don't run into tax/apron concerns if you just plop $37.2M onto their cap sheet in 3 years, especially for someone who will be 37. BOS also needs to save short term money in the deal so it's really rigid. So with that 3rd year attached and making a deal in BOS's overall financial situation he becomes very tough to move.

[nate33]

I think you guys are really underrating Jrue. He's still really, really good.

I really don't think so.

Jrue posted a TS% of just .565 despite a very low USG% of 15.8%. He was only shooting when wide open and still managed a TS% 2.5% below the team average. Likewise his 3P% was just 35% despite only shooting when wide open.

At this point, he is mostly just a one-way defensive player - still elite as an on-ball defender against guards, but too short to be an impact help defender. Basically, he is not quite as good as Caruso, and Caruso just signed an extension for $20M a year. Why would anyone want to pay Jrue $30M+?

[daoneandonly]

His offense is decent, but defense was his calling cars. His D this postseason, when it matters most, was between nonexistent and pedestrian.

[brackdan70]

Washed?
He might be in two years but he is still really solid on both ends of the floor.
The first point is legit though.

IF Jrue was a FA he wouldn't get his current contract. He would likely be viewed similar to how Klay was this past offseason, a former great player that might have some juice left for the right team. Even with the little cap space available this year, teams will find ways to pay desired players via a SNT and salary dumps. IMO Jrue likely would get something like a 3/65-70m from a team that really wants him still if he was a FA. So some 30-35 million overpaid to a team that wants him, 25-30% overpaid would be my estimation to the team that would want him the most.

Like if he was a FA right now, and Boston was determined to resign him what would you want that contract to look like? The money issues Boston find itself in is going to be hard to ignore, but other teams are likely going to face those some money issues too with that contract too eventually.

I think even this estimate is generous given that he will be 35 years old in 3 weeks. Maybe he could fetch 2-years at $20M per, but any longer deal would have to reflect that he will likely be pretty useless 3 years from now. A 3-year deal would probably only get him roughly MLE money.

That’s all fair. I was repo ding to the Hyperbole comment “washed”. He is not washed. He was ranked 60th of players with over 1750 minutes last year in LEBRON and similar in other impact stats.
He is the 53rd highest paid salary next year.
Yes his contract at 3/104 is too much for him and at his age. Yes if he was a FA he gets something like 2/40 to 2/50.
I think Klay comparison is a bit low based on impact metrics.

[Michaellam1987]

Jrue is still a serviceable good player that can start, but he is clearly deteriorating, together with his big salary for 3 more years, make it a no, unless the outgoing contracts are Even, Klay + Martin + Hardy, while Klay is re-route to a 3rd team.

[BleedGreen1989]

My offer would not include Marshall. Gafford/Klay/Hardy/Powell. Dallas still would have to go out and find an offensive minded PG as that isn't Jrue. And taking on that contract, Dallas should be able to move out the small salary they want. Maybe you could talk me into Martin, but Boston owes more then too.

What about Klay/Martin/Hardy/Powell for Jrue? Isn't Martin kind of redundant on the roster since you have Lively at C which means AD mostly at PF, Washington still there, Flagg probably best off as a PF too and Marshall as that 3/4 combo. Feels like keeping Gafford as an expiring to move for value would make more sense, IMO, than keeping Martin just based on the roster construction. Sending out Martin's multi year deal helps offset the cost of Jrue. Kley/Martin/Hardy going out actually offsets the cost of Jrue for this year and next and then Martin/Hardy make up like 40% of the 3rd year too.

Jrue
(Kyrie when healthy) / Christie
Flagg / Marshall
AD / Washington
Lively / Gafford

I think Gafford as a larger expiring salary make him a better guy to hold onto to try and move for the needed backcourt scoring.

BOS can actually do this trade without anyone else even though they take back more than they send because the have a $4M TPE for Powell. Klay/Martin/Hardy make $0.1M less than Jrue so the math works.

End of the day, I think whether it was Gafford or Martin coming back BOS would dump them. Martin into SAC's MLE or TPE and Gafford into ATL's TPE would be my target deals. Solid players but we just can't afford them since I think Klay would be hard to dump. So Gafford vs. Martin wouldn't matter to me, I'm just questioning you valuing Martin over Gafford from DAL's perspective.

Would Boston consider that though. I personally think Jrue is semi-washed, but that Dallas package is a pile of poop

Yeah this defeats the entire purpose of moving Jrue.

If Boston didn’t need to shave payroll, there would be little motivation to trade him.

[zimpy27]

Seems like Boston are better off trading White.

Other teams value White like they do but Boston value Jrue more than others at this point.

[Mavrelous]

Seems like Boston are better off trading White.

Other teams value White like they do but Boston value Jrue more than others at this point.

This is a path they should explore, there is a very realistic pathway to dumping KP, White and Hauser with 0 salary coming back and some very good assets...

[hugepatsfan]

I think you guys are really underrating Jrue. He's still really, really good.

I really don't think so.

Jrue posted a TS% of just .565 despite a very low USG% of 15.8%. He was only shooting when wide open and still managed a TS% 2.5% below the team average. Likewise his 3P% was just 35% despite only shooting when wide open.

At this point, he is mostly just a one-way defensive player - still elite as an on-ball defender against guards, but too short to be an impact help defender. Basically, he is not quite as good as Caruso, and Caruso just signed an extension for $20M a year. Why would anyone want to pay Jrue $30M+?

He had the second best FG% from 0-3 feet. Well above his career mark from 3-10. At his career mark from 10-16. He had a bad shooting year. His deep midrange and his 3 point shot were low this year, no doubt. That’s not really an age skill though. That’s just year to year shot variance. There’s absolutely no reason why anyone acquiring Jrue should expect him to shoot the 35% from last year as opposed to the 39.4% he’s been the last 5 years overall if they’re putting him in a third option type role as he’s been in BOS/MIL. If you put him in an on ball role and ask him to be a primary creator like in NOP, then yeah you’re asking too much of him.

Not sure what you mean about too short to help on defense. He hasn’t shrunk. His block percentage didn’t match the career high of the year before, but he matched his career mark. He’s always been an elite help defender at the guard spot and still is. He’s not a shot blocking center guarding the rim but rotates as sharp as ever and still is more than able to defend wings and even some smaller/finesse bigs, same as he always has.

He’s absolutely one million percent better than Caruso who has no scalable offensive game at all. Now economically Caruso makes more sense in a supporting role and is more feasible for more teams so of course he has way more trade value. But if Jrue is your third best player you’re probably a playoff team. If Caruso is your third best you probably suck.

[nate33]

He’s absolutely one million percent better than Caruso who has no scalable offensive game at all. Now economically Caruso makes more sense in a supporting role and is more feasible for more teams so of course he has way more trade value. But if Jrue is your third best player you’re probably a playoff team. If Caruso is your third best you probably suck.

Here are their numbers this year. Explain to me why exactly Jrue is one million percent better than Caruso - particularly in the contest of Jrue being at the tail end of his career at an age where a decline is typically pretty steep:

[brackdan70]

I think you guys are really underrating Jrue. He's still really, really good.

I really don't think so.

Jrue posted a TS% of just .565 despite a very low USG% of 15.8%. He was only shooting when wide open and still managed a TS% 2.5% below the team average. Likewise his 3P% was just 35% despite only shooting when wide open.

At this point, he is mostly just a one-way defensive player - still elite as an on-ball defender against guards, but too short to be an impact help defender. Basically, he is not quite as good as Caruso, and Caruso just signed an extension for $20M a year. Why would anyone want to pay Jrue $30M+?

This is really an uninformed take.
He guards everyone and anyone, pretty effectively for the most part, can create his own offense or for others.
He is ranked 60 in LEBRON of guys who played 1750 minutes or more, and similarly in other impact stats.
Calling him Caruso lite is hyperbole.
His shooting was down and no one is trying to say he is worth 3/104. But he will be a good player this year and likely next, maybe that third year not so much. Hard to say. People act like if a dude is 35 he can no longer play.

[Texas Chuck]

I mean one thing you left out is Caruso played under 20 mpg. Maybe he scales up minutes wise, but maybe he doesn't. He plays so hard that I'd be surprised if there wasn't some drop off.

[brackdan70]

He’s absolutely one million percent better than Caruso who has no scalable offensive game at all. Now economically Caruso makes more sense in a supporting role and is more feasible for more teams so of course he has way more trade value. But if Jrue is your third best player you’re probably a playoff team. If Caruso is your third best you probably suck.

Here are their numbers this year. Explain to me why exactly Jrue is one million percent better than Caruso - particularly in the contest of Jrue being at the tail end of his career at an age where a decline is typically pretty steep:

Look at minutes played.

[nate33]

I mean one thing you left out is Caruso played under 20 mpg. Maybe he scales up minutes wise, but maybe he doesn't. He plays so hard that I'd be surprised if there wasn't some drop off.

That's fair. I do think Caruso could play more minutes, but with so many similar types of players on the roster (Dort, Wallace) they just don't need him to. At the same time, I think it's likely that Jrue's minutes will continue to drop with age.

I still think my point stands. On an open market, Jrue probably gets a 3-year deal less than what Caruso just signed. That means Jrue is worth somewhere between $15M and $20M a year, making his current $35M-a-year contract a massive overpay that will cost Boston some real assets to unload.

[brackdan70]

Seems like Boston are better off trading White.

Other teams value White like they do but Boston value Jrue more than others at this point.

I think you mean Boston fans value him higher fans of other teams.
We will see if /when a trade goes down what the value is.

[brackdan70]

I mean one thing you left out is Caruso played under 20 mpg. Maybe he scales up minutes wise, but maybe he doesn't. He plays so hard that I'd be surprised if there wasn't some drop off.

That's fair. I do think Caruso could play more minutes, but with so many similar types of players on the roster (Dort, Wallace) they just don't need him to. At the same time, I think it's likely that Jrue's minutes will continue to drop with age.

I still think my point stands. On an open market, Jrue probably gets a 3-year deal less than what Caruso just signed. That means Jrue is worth somewhere between $15M and $20M a year, making his current $35M-a-year contract a massive overpay that will cost Boston some real assets to unload.

I expect that’s a little low. Yeah he is overpaid for sure, and if it’s a huge salary dump it will likely cost assets to move him.
He is the 53rd highest paid player next year.
15-20 million is just above mid level.
I think if he was a FA he would get a fair bit more than that. 15-20 would be 90-120th highest paid player. Caruso is on a really team friendly contract by the way, probably not the best comparison