grant101 wrote:earthtone wrote:grant101 wrote:
That’s would be a Tidjane Salaun-level blunder of a lottery pick. Ppl complain about CMB’s lack of a 3pt shot but happily ignore Essengue’s poor shooting (and horrible defense).
The pitch for Essengue is that even though he’s so young and so skinny, he’s still driving winning for his team. It’s very rare for 18 year olds to be net positives at the pro level.
Not sure why you think is defense is horrible, but Ulm is a much better team when he’s on the court, and he has great feel for rotations and being a defenisve playmaker. Also has very good stl & blk rates.
On offense he’s a very good finisher at the rim and has elite free throw rates, which is a great combo. The three and self-creation still need to come along, but for a guy to already be this productive and still have so much room for skill development is super promising.
The closer it gets to the draft, the less likely I think it is he’ll even last until #9. Size+Youth+Production is a great combo to bet on
I suppose I don’t see the defensive playmaker you’re seeing, particularly if he’s being projected as a 4. For someone who has a 9’3 standing reach and athleticism, he gets very few blocks in a league populated by guards and wings. He’s really aggressive on the ball and in passing lanes and gets a decent amount of steals because of it, but that leads to a lot of blow-bys and disadvantages for his team. I just don’t see how he holds up in the league if he’s asked to play inside, particularly on the defensive end (which will have to be the case, cause he’s not giving you much versatility on offence). I think he gets abused by NBA 4s
He was definitely a positive player for his team, and provided energy and transition offence. I think he shined in large part given the fact that he’s obviously a NBA-level athlete and plays with a decent motor (again, a lot like Salaun in this respect). But, of the rookies on the team, I actually thought Ben Saraf was the more impactful player. Noa was a role player/play finisher on the team. I also think a little too much is being made of the FTR and rim finishing given that a lot of that looks have to come off of assisted finishes and in transition (which is the majority of time he had the ball in his hand). Perhaps somebody with a synergy account can weigh in on that. In any case, he’s not SGA out there manipulating his man into fouling. More like Trayce Jackson Davis - not a bad thing, but not an indication of latent abilities either.
In the end , I think this is a case of different perspectives on what a ceiling outcome looks like for Noa and different opinions on value for draft position. I see the lottery as the place where you gamble for upside, and I just don’t see that with Noa, and instead see a lot of yellow flags that point to potential challenges in sticking. The bar to get playing time and make it as a skinny non-shooting, non playmaking 4-5 in the league is very high. I don’t think the juice is worth the squeeze at #9. I hope you’re right and somebody else bites before we pick - just means more talent to choose from
That’s definitely a fair perspective, I can understand the skepticism. I see the defence a lot differently than you, I don’t think his high steal rates are from Gary Trent Jr-esque gamble and pressures, I think he’s a very smart defender who understands team concepts super well and is always in the right place to be disruptive.
I think a little too much is made about him being skinny, he’s the second youngest player in the draft and has a ton of time to fill out. Having a 9’3” standing reach and great instincts goes a long way to mitigate strength concerns, and his youthful lack of strength didn’t stop him from being a +defender in a pro league.
SGA leads the entire league in unassisted FGs, I think that’s a pretty unreasonable bar for a guy of Essengue’s archetype. Scoring off of assists and in transition is a good thing, especially if you’re helping to create those looks through off-ball movement and defensive playmaking, which Essengue is.
He’ll probably always be a play finisher (barring some outlier development), but efficient play finisher who are +defenders are still super valuable. I think TJD is a pretty unfair comp, they don’t play the same position and Essengue is lightyears better at 18 than TJD was. I don’t really see many similarities in their games at all aside from not being guards.
I think fair high-end comps for him are guys like Jaden McDaniels/Toni Kukoc/Andrei Kirilenko, while some of the lower/median comps would be Peyton Watson/Derrick Jones Jr/Amir Johnson. Super valuable archetype and worth a Top 10 pick IMO.
