2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[76ciology]

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[M2J]

Literally only KD has come into college this ready to make these types of shots. Not Carmelo. Tatum was close...very skilled and used his strength (like Carmelo with some of the similar iso features to get to the basket). Jaylen Brown figured it out in recent years only, and MPJ and Jabari Smith could learn from him today.

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[M2J]

VJ over me?

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Seriously can't understand the thought that this kid isn't top 3 easily. Only things truly to say about him is his shot selection wasn't great, and I think that's because his team required him to space where Dylan could drive and create for their mid major teammates. I've seen him get to the room pretty well. But the big issue there isn't really his ball handling, I think it's his strength and lack of spacing on Rutgers and that is something that comes naturally

[FireMorey]

My position is that drafting Ace Bailey with the third overall pick is simply a bad bet, not because he can’t become a star, but because the odds of him reaching that level are very low. As a prospect, he reminds me of Jaylen Brown, someone whose early metrics didn’t project stardom, yet he beat the odds. But at the end of the day, all prospects are like crypto… you can do all the technical analysis, but the truth is no one really knows how it will play out. All you can do is manage risk versus reward, and with Bailey, the risk feels too high for a pick this valuable. And this is just my own preference and like in investing, we all have our own styles.

That said, keep in mind I don’t hate the guy, and I’m not claiming with certainty that he won’t reach his upside, it’s just a matter of probability. For me, he’s simply a bad bet at this spot in the draft.

That's your opinion though. Before you respond with "Obviously, that's my opinion" it comes off as if you're suggesting that metrics can indicate stardom probability, and they can't. It's impossible to project the probability any player can become a star definitively. No metric can. It's all feel and opinion, nothing more. Morey may feel he doesn't have a low probability to become a star for all we know.

[76ciology]

My position is that drafting Ace Bailey with the third overall pick is simply a bad bet, not because he can’t become a star, but because the odds of him reaching that level are very low. As a prospect, he reminds me of Jaylen Brown, someone whose early metrics didn’t project stardom, yet he beat the odds. But at the end of the day, all prospects are like crypto… you can do all the technical analysis, but the truth is no one really knows how it will play out. All you can do is manage risk versus reward, and with Bailey, the risk feels too high for a pick this valuable. And this is just my own preference and like in investing, we all have our own styles.

That said, keep in mind I don’t hate the guy, and I’m not claiming with certainty that he won’t reach his upside, it’s just a matter of probability. For me, he’s simply a bad bet at this spot in the draft.

That's your opinion though. Before you respond with "Obviously, that's my opinion" it comes off as if you're suggesting that metrics can indicate stardom probability, and they can't. It's impossible to project the probability any player can become a star definitively. No metric can. It's all feel and opinion, nothing more. Morey may feel he doesn't have a low probability to become a star for all we know.

Yes, that’s my opinion, something I’ve consistently said from the start. Everything I’ve posted is simply my reasoning to support that stance.

I’m not here to convince anyone, just sharing my perspective.

Where’s the fun when we are all just rooting for the same guy?

Im not even just rooting for one guy. I have Maluach, Tre and Kasaparas as my options.

[76ciology]

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[M2J]

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Might I ask why you compare him to j Brown?

[76ciology]

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Might I ask why you compare him to j Brown?

Poor numbers overall and bad free throw percentage.

[M2J]

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Might I ask why you compare him to j Brown?

Poor numbers overall and bad free throw percentage.

Gotcha, but Ace doesn't have bad numbers and the free throw thing was addressed here, but I hear you... Because when it comes to their games... Brown wishes when he was in college. I saw him in person a few times as a client had Cal tickets and my wife was in school there.

Another recent comparison I would give for Ace is Brandon Miller. I'm an Alabama alum and actually did watch his games with care. He was on a great team, and he may be a bit of a better pure shooter than Ace (but I'm not sure of that). I think he was a solid passer coming down hill, on a good team... But his handles were looser and he struggled getting to the rim too, had bad footwork in getting his own shots and was forced to take terrible shots too and they looked terrible and he looked lost. When defense creates a tough look for Ace, he looks like he knows the counter to create the look he is comfortable with.

[Negrodamus]

My position is that drafting Ace Bailey with the third overall pick is simply a bad bet, not because he can’t become a star, but because the odds of him reaching that level are very low. As a prospect, he reminds me of Jaylen Brown, someone whose early metrics didn’t project stardom, yet he beat the odds. But at the end of the day, all prospects are like crypto… you can do all the technical analysis, but the truth is no one really knows how it will play out. All you can do is manage risk versus reward, and with Bailey, the risk feels too high for a pick this valuable. And this is just my own preference and like in investing, we all have our own styles.

That said, keep in mind I don’t hate the guy, and I’m not claiming with certainty that he won’t reach his upside, it’s just a matter of probability. For me, he’s simply a bad bet at this spot in the draft.

That's your opinion though. Before you respond with "Obviously, that's my opinion" it comes off as if you're suggesting that metrics can indicate stardom probability, and they can't. It's impossible to project the probability any player can become a star definitively. No metric can. It's all feel and opinion, nothing more. Morey may feel he doesn't have a low probability to become a star for all we know.

We should probably stop talking about it and twiddle our thumbs until the draft.

[youngcrev]

I think people are putting themselves in a weird spot where they're potentially going to be rooting against a guy we pick just to say "I told you so."

There's enough red flags with Ace that I don't feel comfortable taking him at #3. The measurements are good, but not quite what he was billed at. The YouTube doesn't look great to my eye in terms of feel for the game. The team success is rough. A lot of the of the online draft guys whose opinions I trust don't love him.

That said... "Don't love him" in Ace's case means they have him like 5th or 6th on their board. The tough shot making, size, athleticism and age are all intriguing enough to overlook the other stuff, and maybe even moreso, it's easy to talk yourself out of ANY of these guys when look with a critical enough eye.

I'm also just a dude that crams a bunch of different scouting videos/reports this time of year and doesn't watch college basketball outside of the tournament. The best people in the world at scouting these guys are wrong most of the time about these guys, because projecting how a 19 will develop from a skill and physical perspective and how they will translate to the next level is not an easy business.

That is to say... If the draft process hasn't humbled you yet, I don't actually trust your opinion.

Honestly, the biggest "I told you so" from a scouting skill perspective for me wont be if he ends up as a bust, but rather if the NBA talent evaluators see the same thing and Ace falls to like 8th overall.

But that doesn't line up with "this guy bust AND someone will pay us a ton to move up to get him!" logic that we are hoping for.

[youngcrev]

Short version of my post: let's be a little more humble about the process and not set this place up for a toxic situation on the off chance we do end up taking Ace.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Short version of my post: let's be a little more humble about the process and not set this place up for a toxic situation on the off chance we do end up taking Ace.

I said the same thing earlier last week. We don't need the division and bickering here. It's not bad now, but God help this forum if we do draft him.

[Jojothewhale]

That is to say... If the draft process hasn't humbled you yet, I don't actually trust your opinion.

No one is actually good at drafting. Every one of us and every team is just different shades of incompetent. It's an unsolvable problem.

I've said nothing but negative things about Ace. I still have him on a 7/8 tier because he's as big as he is. I learned my Hachimura lesson. He's a solid bet to stick in the league for a long time in a role that's incredibly difficult to fill with a strong net positive player. There's a point at which that makes him a good pick. For me, that's after the guys with star equity that doesn't require 99th percentile outcomes.

[mjkvol]

Short version of my post: let's be a little more humble about the process and not set this place up for a toxic situation on the off chance we do end up taking Ace.

I love the back and forth because that's what these boards are created for - debating and sharing opinions. I don't go on X much or watch any sports podcasts or TV aside from games, and I find out more news and places to see scouting videos on players here from you guys than anywhere else, and I respect the opinions of many of our posters.

Totally agree on avoiding the "told you so" toxic stuff, but that's part and parcel of a forum with strong opinions being exchanged. I'd rather risk some of that (and we kind of know who it will come from) and have the open dialogue with disagreements that we have here. It doesn't need to be toxic, but some people take this stuff a bit too seriously.

I'm firmly on Team Tradeout, being that my favorite players in the lottery part of the draft are Kasparis, Kon, and Maluach, none of which would be a logical 3rd pick, but would be perfect in the 5-8 range. Having said that, if we took one of them #3 I'd be thrilled.

[youngcrev]

For all the talk of moving back and picking up an asset because of the lack of trust in the guys available at #3... what's a reasonable price to pay to move up 1 spot for Harper?

Purely from a fit perspective, a lead guard with great size (big enough to play some 3 in a 3 guard lineup) that's an elite paint toucher/finisher feels like exactly the type of guy this team needs. Putting him next to either Maxey or McCain (or both) feels like exactly what you want. And the star upside/likelihood seems a lot higher than tier we are picking from.

So turn the microscope on him. I know the shot is a question mark (which is an obvious red flag for a guard). Same for the team success we holding against Ace.

Pretend we have the #2 pick and rip him apart!

[76ciology]

How many times have I ended up on the losing side of a “told you so”? Too many to count, and honestly, I don’t mind. Why? Sometime Haliburton drops 40 and the next game he only scores 14pts on 5 of 16 shooting. Life is up and down.

And if we draft Ace Bailey and he ends up being a star, why would I be mad when he’s on our team?

And if I end up being right this time, I’m not going to throw it back with a “Weren’t you the Bailey guy? So everything you said must be wrong.” What do I gain not being able to hear your opinion and just talk to myself here?

I’m just here to share my thoughts and enjoy the conversation. I’m not here to convince anyone, except if you are Daryl Morey then you can just PM me. I don’t gain anything from people agreeing with me. In fact, I’d rather hear the takes that challenge mine, they help me learn, or at least see things from another angle.

At the end of the day, I think most of us here know there are no certainties in life. We’ve seen it all the weird sh*t as Sixers fans. In the end, we’re all just making our own projections, shaped by our own biases.

Let’s just talk hoops. Don’t be afraid to voice your opinions.

[Kobblehead]

A scenario coming away with Ace Bailey at #3 and Drake Powell at #35 is exciting in the sense that we took two 19 years olds with excellent length, athleticism, and ability to contest and block shots. A vision of suffucating playoff defense if they pan out, offensively.

[76ciology]

That is to say... If the draft process hasn't humbled you yet, I don't actually trust your opinion.

No one is actually good at drafting.Every one of us and every team is just different shades of incompetent. It's an unsolvable problem.

Yes, because at the end of the day, they’re all just bets. You can win with a bad bet, that’s the nature of life. Some bets simply have better odds than others. But just because something is a low-percentage play doesn’t mean it can’t succeed. It just means you’re taking on more risk to get there.

Picking that the Celtics will win the NBA championship this year wont make you any money.

How many just “dont overthink it” and picked the Pacers to make it to the finals?

[Kobblehead]

For all the talk of moving back and picking up an asset because of the lack of trust in the guys available at #3... what's a reasonable price to pay to move up 1 spot for Harper?

Purely from a fit perspective, a lead guard with great size (big enough to play some 3 in a 3 guard lineup) that's an elite paint toucher/finisher feels like exactly the type of guy this team needs. Putting him next to either Maxey or McCain (or both) feels like exactly what you want. And the star upside/likelihood seems a lot higher than tier we are picking from.

So turn the microscope on him. I know the shot is a question mark (which is an obvious red flag for a guard). Same for the team success we holding against Ace.

Pretend we have the #2 pick and rip him apart!

It's hard to determine. Harper is an awesome prospect, but his knock is that he has a shakey shooting projection. So that makes paying a huge price to trade up for him a risky move. Tre Johnson might even be a better player with a better career than him and all we have to do is sit tight and take him when he's there.