2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[ProcessDoctor]

Harper’s college metrics are pretty damn similar to Fultz. Key difference being FT%.

[youngcrev]

How many times have I ended up on the losing side of a “told you so”? Too many to count, and honestly, I don’t mind. Why? Sometime Haliburton drops 40 and the next game he only scores 14pts on 5 of 16 shooting. Life is up and down.

And if we draft Ace Bailey and he ends up being a star, why would I be mad when he’s on our team?

And if I end up being right this time, I’m not going to throw it back with a “Weren’t you the Bailey guy? So everything you said must be wrong.” What do I gain not being able to hear your opinion and just talk to myself here?

I’m just here to share my thoughts and enjoy the conversation. I’m not here to convince anyone, except if you are Daryl Morey then you can just PM me. I don’t gain anything from people agreeing with me. In fact, I’d rather hear the takes that challenge mine, they help me learn, or at least see things from another angle.

At the end of the day, I think most of us here know there are no certainties in life. We’ve seen it all the weird sh*t as Sixers fans. In the end, we’re all just making our own projections, shaped by our own biases.

Let’s just talk hoops. Don’t be afraid to voice your opinions.

I don't worry about I told you so because I told you so on another player.

Yuck. That's the vibe.

But I keep saying it's just my opinion.

Yet it doesn't match the tone. It seems like you are trying to present yourself as an authority on this ****.

Just be regular! Talking hoops, hell yes! I don't even disagree with the Ace stance. I'm just turned off by what I see as your approach.

Or maybe I'm out of line, in which case, I apologize.

[zaz102]

Harper’s college metrics are pretty damn similar to Fultz. Key difference being FT%.

Fultz was a damn good prospect. If Harper stays away from the Sixers, he'll probably be fine

[Jojothewhale]

Michael Beasley doesn't bust every time. Jaylen Brown doesn't boom. Chauncey Billups is a star right away sometimes. Others he never figures it out.
It's not just players themselves. It's not even where they go. It's the player plus the environment at a specific time in their careers.

Way back in this thread, I said something like Bailey needs to make an incredibly difficult mental conversion from star scorer mentality to role player at some point in his career. The team that drafts him needs to be a capable shepherd. I don't think that support system exists here.

[MVP1992]

I'd be sceptical of the Spurs being willing to trade back with us. How sick would you feel if it came out they weren't going to pick Harper at #2 anyway. Fultz <->Tatum vibes.

[sixers hoops]

That is to say... If the draft process hasn't humbled you yet, I don't actually trust your opinion.

No one is actually good at drafting. Every one of us and every team is just different shades of incompetent. It's an unsolvable problem.

I've said nothing but negative things about Ace. I still have him on a 7/8 tier because he's as big as he is. I learned my Hachimura lesson. He's a solid bet to stick in the league for a long time in a role that's incredibly difficult to fill with a strong net positive player. There's a point at which that makes him a good pick. For me, that's after the guys with star equity that doesn't require 99th percentile outcomes.

I was just reading about Sam Presti’s draft record. He has a really good track record in the lottery. He has some misses in the bottom half of the round, and Cam Payne at 14 wasn’t great. DraftExpress had Harden going 5 and ESPN had him going 8, but Presti hit on the future MVP at 3. NBAdraft.net and Chad Ford had Westbrook going 6, and Presti hit on the future MVP at 4. Durant was a no-brainer at 2. Steven Adams, Chet, Jalen Williams, and Cason Wallace were very good as well. And he really hit on SGA as a rookie.

He has a really good track record of not botching top 5 picks. Meanwhile, Thabeet, Beasley, and OJ Mayo were picked before his selections. I think he often looks for guys who are excellent athletes, have the ability to handle the ball, and metrics that indicate shooting potential. Basically, players who have a long developmental runway, and from there he trusts his development team.

Looking at his tendencies I could see Edgecombe as a Presti target. However, Morey has drafted very similar with the Sixers. Even Springer fit the bill, but just did develop like they hoped. It’s risky to hope a player develops a jumper, but if it happens like it did with Maxey, then you have a steal.

[youngcrev]

Imagine if Fultz made the developmental jump Maxey made from a shooting perspective.

[Kobblehead]

I'd be sceptical of the Spurs being willing to trade back with us. How sick would you feel if it came out they weren't going to pick Harper at #2 anyway. Fultz <->Tatum vibes.

The wishful thinking stems from the possibility that the Spurs could view redundancy with Castle/Harper and elect to secure a knockdown shooter instead.

[Jojothewhale]

I was just reading about Sam Presti’s draft record. He has a really good track record in the lottery. He has some misses in the bottom half of the round, and Cam Payne at 14 wasn’t great. DraftExpress had Harden going 5 and ESPN had him going 8, but Presti hit on the future MVP at 3. NBAdraft.net and Chad Ford had Westbrook going 6, and Presti hit on the future MVP at 4. Durant was a no-brainer at 2. Steven Adams, Chet, Jalen Williams, and Cason Wallace were very good as well. And he really hit on SGA as a rookie.

He has a really good track record of not botching top 5 picks. Meanwhile, Thabeet, Beasley, and OJ Mayo were picked before his selections. I think he often looks for guys who are excellent athletes, have the ability to handle the ball, and metrics that indicate shooting potential. Basically, players who have a long developmental runway, and from there he trusts his development team.

Looking at his tendencies I could see Edgecombe as a Presti target. However, Morey has drafted very similar with the Sixers. Even Springer fit the bill, but just did develop like they hoped. It’s risky to hope a player develops a jumper, but if it happens like it did with Maxey, then you have a steal.

I'm a VJ at 3 guy, so there's definitely going to be some bias on my part. For me, the star equity in VJ depends on how much you can improve a handle. I think so many of his faults as a prospect stem from specifically that skill. I would really like to see one of the popular podcasts dig into specific skills like that and what is or isn't fixable.

I was also a Maxey and Springer guy, but I thought Maxey would be a better point of attack defender than he has been so far with a good shot and floater touch. Instead, his shooting exploded and the defense never really came. I'm not sure that even counts as being right!

Presti is about as low on the incompetence scale as it gets, but I think this is also a great example of how hard it is to draw specific lines. In your post, the Top 5 clause is carrying a hell of a lot of weight. Giddey over Franz Wagner at 6 was a disaster. Like you said, the developmental team a GM hands these guys over to matters so damn much. If Utah takes Cason Wallace at 9, where is he now? I'd bet significantly worse off. How much of Presti's success is him making good decisions in who to draft? How much of it is in who he hired as coaches and trainers? We'll never know. That's what makes it fun to me.

[FireMorey]

I think Bailey's a better ball handler than VJ. It's just Bailey looks more awkward because he's bigger and not the athlete VJ is. I think it's harder for players to develop handles than it is a jumper. The number of guys who come into the league unimpressive ball handlers who eventually become stud ball handlers, you'd be hard pressed to find one. Usually those guys max out at serviceable. However, we've seen guys come into the league who don't shoot very well become very good shooters.

I think ball handling is more important for a guard than a wing, though ideally you'd love it no matter what the position. And even as a wing I think Bailey is better at it than VJ. The problem with Bailey is does he have the explosiveness to where when he polishes it up, he can use it to get by defenders. It's a weird dynamic.

You have one guy in Bailey who I think has ball handling potential who might not have the elite athleticism to maximize it if he develops it.

And in VJ you have a guy who does have the athleticism, but its use might be limited by not being a guy who can break defenders down off the dribble.

[ProcessDoctor]

I'd be sceptical of the Spurs being willing to trade back with us. How sick would you feel if it came out they weren't going to pick Harper at #2 anyway. Fultz <->Tatum vibes.

Yea I wouldn’t even be entertaining a trade up at this point. Take whoever’s left or trade back. I don’t know that Harper is as much of a sure thing as people say, anyways.

[Jailblazers7]

I feel a little more comfortable with the idea of Ace after witnessing the Justin Edwards leap this year. If they’re able to get him to buy-in the same way Edward’s did, then I’d be very optimistic about having the two of them as our core young wings.

[Sixerfever216]

The Ace talk is weird because at 3 who else woulf u take. Cool u may not be high on Ace who else do you really like at the spot.

[Jojothewhale]

The number of guys who come into the league unimpressive ball handlers who eventually become stud ball handlers, you'd be hard pressed to find one. Usually those guys max out at serviceable.

But is serviceable enough? That's the tricky part. Jaylen Brown went from worse than VJ is now to fine. That's been more than good enough. He's an outlier for sure, but you need an outlier outcome to hit a star at 3 in this draft. VJ gives you a hell of a lot more than just initiation and driving. Otherwise he's not even in the discussion at 3.

[Doramas]

Harper’s college metrics are pretty damn similar to Fultz. Key difference being FT%.

Maybe, but it also depends a lot on personality. Fultz's biggest problem was himself and his mental block, apart from the physical and his shoulders. Harper I think has more personality.

[ivysixer2000]

Well the thing we discount is how will these young guys react to all that money.

Will they be in the gym all the time like Maxey? Or will they lay back in their mansion, with 7 girls. The inexact science of drafting as I see it, is how that person actually thinks after being rich.

Kawhi drove the same car for years after the draft, think he still has it. Least LeBusta married his high school sweetheart instead of a Kardashian, ala Ben trying. It does depend on the guy and if he wants to live that 'lifestyle'. Trust me, working in a club for a decade, I can tell you some prefer the lifestyle over any daily work.

Bottomline, all of them need to work on their games, which ones will and which ones will not is the real question.

[sixers hoops]

I was just reading about Sam Presti’s draft record. He has a really good track record in the lottery. He has some misses in the bottom half of the round, and Cam Payne at 14 wasn’t great. DraftExpress had Harden going 5 and ESPN had him going 8, but Presti hit on the future MVP at 3. NBAdraft.net and Chad Ford had Westbrook going 6, and Presti hit on the future MVP at 4. Durant was a no-brainer at 2. Steven Adams, Chet, Jalen Williams, and Cason Wallace were very good as well. And he really hit on SGA as a rookie.

He has a really good track record of not botching top 5 picks. Meanwhile, Thabeet, Beasley, and OJ Mayo were picked before his selections. I think he often looks for guys who are excellent athletes, have the ability to handle the ball, and metrics that indicate shooting potential. Basically, players who have a long developmental runway, and from there he trusts his development team.

Looking at his tendencies I could see Edgecombe as a Presti target. However, Morey has drafted very similar with the Sixers. Even Springer fit the bill, but just did develop like they hoped. It’s risky to hope a player develops a jumper, but if it happens like it did with Maxey, then you have a steal.

I'm a VJ at 3 guy, so there's definitely going to be some bias on my part. For me, the star equity in VJ depends on how much you can improve a handle. I think so many of his faults as a prospect stem from specifically that skill. I would really like to see one of the popular podcasts dig into specific skills like that and what is or isn't fixable.

I was also a Maxey and Springer guy, but I thought Maxey would be a better point of attack defender than he has been so far with a good shot and floater touch. Instead, his shooting exploded and the defense never really came. I'm not sure that even counts as being right!

Presti is about as low on the incompetence scale as it gets, but I think this is also a great example of how hard it is to draw specific lines. In your post, the Top 5 clause is carrying a hell of a lot of weight. Giddey over Franz Wagner at 6 was a disaster. Like you said, the developmental team a GM hands these guys over to matters so damn much. If Utah takes Cason Wallace at 9, where is he now? I'd bet significantly worse off. How much of Presti's success is him making good decisions in who to draft? How much of it is in who he hired as coaches and trainers? We'll never know. That's what makes it fun to me.

And we could say he should’ve drafted Curry over Harden, but I’m just looking at how difficult it is to hit on top 5 picks in general. Presti isn’t perfect. We went Evan Turner, Okafor, Embiid, Fultz, and Simmons over seven or eight years of top 3 picks, and getting these picks wrong are franchise crippling. Presti just identifying perennial all-stars in the top 5 is difficult.

Cavs over a similar period took Wiggins, Anthony Bennett, Dion Waiters at 4, and a no-brainer with Kyrie at 1. Wolves took Mayo, Rubio, Flynn, Dunn, Wesley Johnson, and Derrick Williams.

The reason tanking is tough is because a lot of GMs can’t even hit on top 5 picks. Unless they land #1 and have a Flagg handed to them, it’s tough to even identify stars in the top 5. Danny Ainge hitting on Tatum and Brown as third picks is pretty impressive.

[sixers hoops]

I think Bailey's a better ball handler than VJ. It's just Bailey looks more awkward because he's bigger and not the athlete VJ is. I think it's harder for players to develop handles than it is a jumper. The number of guys who come into the league unimpressive ball handlers who eventually become stud ball handlers, you'd be hard pressed to find one. Usually those guys max out at serviceable. However, we've seen guys come into the league who don't shoot very well become very good shooters.

I think ball handling is more important for a guard than a wing, though ideally you'd love it no matter what the position. And even as a wing I think Bailey is better at it than VJ. The problem with Bailey is does he have the explosiveness to where when he polishes it up, he can use it to get by defenders. It's a weird dynamic.

You have one guy in Bailey who I think has ball handling potential who might not have the elite athleticism to maximize it if he develops it.

And in VJ you have a guy who does have the athleticism, but its use might be limited by not being a guy who can break defenders down off the dribble.

I didn’t realize his handles were that bad in the videos I watched. It is a decent indicator of ability to develop a floor game. I’m assuming Springer and Matisse has no handles in college.

[mjkvol]

For all the talk of moving back and picking up an asset because of the lack of trust in the guys available at #3... what's a reasonable price to pay to move up 1 spot for Harper?

Purely from a fit perspective, a lead guard with great size (big enough to play some 3 in a 3 guard lineup) that's an elite paint toucher/finisher feels like exactly the type of guy this team needs. Putting him next to either Maxey or McCain (or both) feels like exactly what you want. And the star upside/likelihood seems a lot higher than tier we are picking from.

So turn the microscope on him. I know the shot is a question mark (which is an obvious red flag for a guard). Same for the team success we holding against Ace.

Pretend we have the #2 pick and rip him apart!

I would do #3 and McCain to move up in a heartbeat, but I wouldn't give up any more draft capital. McCain fits the Spurs' need for shooting off the bench and doesn't mess up the Fox/Castle backcourt.

[sodmoraes]

I'd be sceptical of the Spurs being willing to trade back with us. How sick would you feel if it came out they weren't going to pick Harper at #2 anyway. Fultz <->Tatum vibes.

Yea I wouldn’t even be entertaining a trade up at this point. Take whoever’s left or trade back. I don’t know that Harper is as much of a sure thing as people say, anyways.

Im probably just a homer, but i dont think Harper is that much better of a prospect than Bailey. And we already have a nice backcourt with Maxey, Mccain and Grimes, so im not that enamored with Harper. I just dont think he has that kind of potential, i even like Tre more than him.