2025 NBA Draft Discussion Part 8

[RoteSchroder]

Before next season starts, Cedric Coward will be 22 years old. He played 2 seasons (66 games) at Eastern Washington (Big Sky Conference) and 1 season (6 games) at Washington State (West Coast Conference).

Can you or anyone else on this board name at least ten (10) players who played against sub-par competition in weak college conferences who were 22 years old before their rookie season began that have earned at least one (1) All-Star appearance OR one (1) All-NBA team nomination OR one (1) All-Defense team nomination OR one (1) end of season NBA award (Most Improved Player, Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Valuable Player) during their career?

Here's at least 14:

Larry Johnson
John Starks
Derrick White
Damian Lillard
Danny Granger
Bruce Bowen
Ben Wallace
Kyle Korver
George Hill
C.J. McCollum
Paul Millsap
Pascal Siakam
Robert Convington
Hassan Whiteside

OK... so during the past 37 drafts only 14 of the more than 2,000 players drafted fit the criteria.

Since 1988, that's still less than 1% of the players drafted.

How many of those players were drafted in the lottery?

LJ
Lillard
McCullom

That's only 3 of the more than 2,000 players drafted, or a 1 in 666 chance that a player aged 22 years or older before the season starts who played in a weak conference is able to achieve those accolades.

How much are you willing to bet that Cedric Coward is going to become the fourth?

Your calculations includes a whole bunch of busts under 22 and/or from better conferences.

1) ~2220 players drafted in the last 37 years (37*60)

2) In the past 15 years (pre-2024), there were only 30 players drafted who were over 22.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5513010/2024/05/30/does-age-matter-in-the-nba-draft-plus-bronny-james-draft-status-and-the-nuggets-cba-problem/

If we extrapolate that to 37 years, you get an approximation of 74 players who were over 22 at draft time.

3) Among these 74 players, there are ~14 good players who were over 22 yrs old and from weak conferences.

14/74 = 18.9% (this is an underestimation, we're dividing from a pool of ANY player over 22. Yet, the list of 14 players doesn't include players from stronger conferences. e.g. Norman Powell is not up there, David Robinson not up there, etc.)

4) If we estimate that 7 good players come out of each draft, that's 259 good players in total within the last 37 years.

That leaves us with 245 good players out of 2146 players (11.4%), who were under 22 at the time of draft.

[dohboy_24]

Here's at least 14:

Larry Johnson
John Starks
Derrick White
Damian Lillard
Danny Granger
Bruce Bowen
Ben Wallace
Kyle Korver
George Hill
C.J. McCollum
Paul Millsap
Pascal Siakam
Robert Convington
Hassan Whiteside

OK... so during the past 37 drafts only 14 of the more than 2,000 players drafted fit the criteria.

Since 1988, that's still less than 1% of the players drafted.

How many of those players were drafted in the lottery?

LJ
Lillard
McCullom

That's only 3 of the more than 2,000 players drafted, or a 1 in 666 chance that a player aged 22 years or older before the season starts who played in a weak conference is able to achieve those accolades.

How much are you willing to bet that Cedric Coward is going to become the fourth?

I'm not sure if you understand how statistical probability works but the argument that only “3 of over 2,000” players drafted meet the criteria wrongly assumes that every one of those 2,000 players fits the specific background of being 22+ years old before their rookie season and playing in a weak conference. That’s a false denominator.

The accurate probability must be based only on players who fit the same profile as Cedric Coward, not all draftees.

Imagine someone says that only 4 players from San Diego State have ever made the NBA. Out of over 4,500 total players in NBA history, that’s less than 0.1%. So, clearly, any San Diego State player has basically no chance of making the league. That sounds convincing at first — but it’s deeply misleading.

Why? Because the proper comparison isn’t between San Diego State players and all NBA players. It should be between San Diego State players who were serious NBA prospects and the number who made it. If only 15 players from San Diego State have been drafted since the 1980s, and 4 made the NBA, that’s a 26.7% success rate — not 0.1%.

So the right question is: What proportion of [______] prospects were successful in the NBA?” Not: "What proportion of all NBA players come from [______] group?”

I'd imagine the number of players who were 22 or older entering their rookie years who won some sort of accolades is probably pretty high within that narrow sub group given that the total group who were even worthy of NBA consideration in the first place was itself very small.

I'm not going to waste my time trying to figure out how many of those 2,000 players fit the criteria of being 22 years old and from a weak conference.

Feel free to figure it out though...

[dohboy_24]

Here's at least 14:

Larry Johnson
John Starks
Derrick White
Damian Lillard
Danny Granger
Bruce Bowen
Ben Wallace
Kyle Korver
George Hill
C.J. McCollum
Paul Millsap
Pascal Siakam
Robert Convington
Hassan Whiteside

OK... so during the past 37 drafts only 14 of the more than 2,000 players drafted fit the criteria.

Since 1988, that's still less than 1% of the players drafted.

How many of those players were drafted in the lottery?

LJ
Lillard
McCullom

That's only 3 of the more than 2,000 players drafted, or a 1 in 666 chance that a player aged 22 years or older before the season starts who played in a weak conference is able to achieve those accolades.

How much are you willing to bet that Cedric Coward is going to become the fourth?

Your calculations includes a whole bunch of busts under 22 and/or from better conferences.

1) ~2220 players drafted in the last 37 years (37*60)

2) In the past 15 years (pre-2024), there were only 30 players drafted who were over 22.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5513010/2024/05/30/does-age-matter-in-the-nba-draft-plus-bronny-james-draft-status-and-the-nuggets-cba-problem/

If we extrapolate that to 37 years, you get an approximation of 74 players who were over 22 at draft time.

3) Among these 74 players, there are ~14 good players who were over 22 yrs old and from weak conferences.

14/74 = 18.9% (this is an underestimation, we're dividing from a pool of ANY player over 22. Yet, the list of 14 players doesn't include players from stronger conferences. e.g. Norman Powell is not up there, David Robinson not up there, etc.)

4) If we estimate that 7 good players come out of each draft, that's 259 good players in total within the last 37 years.

That leaves us with 245 good players out of 2146 players (11.4%), who were under 22 at the time of draft.

What is the definition of a good player?

Is your conclusion that group A (22 years or older and from a weak conference) has a higher success rate than group B (any age or conference) of meeting the criteria (All-Star or All-NBA, etc)?

[mademan]

I can get behind other prospects, but im against not drafting Coward over his age. He's shown a propensity for great improvement and ill take that over a hope and a wish on a 19 year old.

[RoteSchroder]

OK... so during the past 37 drafts only 14 of the more than 2,000 players drafted fit the criteria.

Since 1988, that's still less than 1% of the players drafted.

How many of those players were drafted in the lottery?

LJ
Lillard
McCullom

That's only 3 of the more than 2,000 players drafted, or a 1 in 666 chance that a player aged 22 years or older before the season starts who played in a weak conference is able to achieve those accolades.

How much are you willing to bet that Cedric Coward is going to become the fourth?

Your calculations includes a whole bunch of busts under 22 and/or from better conferences.

1) ~2220 players drafted in the last 37 years (37*60)

2) In the past 15 years (pre-2024), there were only 30 players drafted who were over 22.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5513010/2024/05/30/does-age-matter-in-the-nba-draft-plus-bronny-james-draft-status-and-the-nuggets-cba-problem/

If we extrapolate that to 37 years, you get an approximation of 74 players who were over 22 at draft time.

3) Among these 74 players, there are ~14 good players who were over 22 yrs old and from weak conferences.

14/74 = 18.9% (this is an underestimation, we're dividing from a pool of ANY player over 22. Yet, the list of 14 players doesn't include players from stronger conferences. e.g. Norman Powell is not up there, David Robinson not up there, etc.)

4) If we estimate that 7 good players come out of each draft, that's 259 good players in total within the last 37 years.

That leaves us with 245 good players out of 2146 players (11.4%), who were under 22 at the time of draft.

What is the definition of a good player?

Is your conclusion that group A (22 years or older and from a weak conference) has a higher success rate than group B (any age or conference) of meeting the criteria (All-Star or All-NBA, etc)?

No, cause there's a bunch of guesstimates being done. E.g. 7 good players from each draft might be unrealistic if the marker for "good player" is that they need to be MVP/all-star/DPOY/all-NBA/etc. I think you'll be hard pressed to find 7 in each draft.

A drafted 22 year old, whether from a weak/strong conference, may have a higher chance of being an NBA rotation player compared to the field based on the context:

1) Most players with NBA aspirations will declare for the draft before 22 years old

2) Some players prolong their college years because they want/need to get better in order to be drafted. If they don't get better, they won't be drafted or won't even declare.

3) 22 year old players will never be drafted without on-court production.

4) Because they will already have proven that they've improved or can play, there's a higher chance they don't bust. Whereas a ton of picks under 22 are based on "potential/upside", and a lot of the time it never works out.

It's a pretty basic principle that applies to prospects across the board, players who have shown they can play and have good instincts on the court are safer bets than players who are projects. The bigger the project, the bigger the risk. If we look at past risers or hyped up players, many have busted because their ability was only theoretical..they've never proven it on the court.

So rather focusing on age, I would focus on what Cedric can actually do. For me, the question isn't whether he can be a ball-handler, but whether he can generate elite off-ball shooting in the likes of Korver, Ray and Klay. Is he a movement shooter, can he hit side step 3's, 2 dribble shots, etc. If his game tape shows he's mainly a catch and shoot type of 3 point shooter, I think his value goes down. Struggling against better opponents (maybe who guard him tighter) is also a yellow flag.

[S.W.A.N]

Your calculations includes a whole bunch of busts under 22 and/or from better conferences.

1) ~2220 players drafted in the last 37 years (37*60)

2) In the past 15 years (pre-2024), there were only 30 players drafted who were over 22.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5513010/2024/05/30/does-age-matter-in-the-nba-draft-plus-bronny-james-draft-status-and-the-nuggets-cba-problem/

If we extrapolate that to 37 years, you get an approximation of 74 players who were over 22 at draft time.

3) Among these 74 players, there are ~14 good players who were over 22 yrs old and from weak conferences.

14/74 = 18.9% (this is an underestimation, we're dividing from a pool of ANY player over 22. Yet, the list of 14 players doesn't include players from stronger conferences. e.g. Norman Powell is not up there, David Robinson not up there, etc.)

4) If we estimate that 7 good players come out of each draft, that's 259 good players in total within the last 37 years.

That leaves us with 245 good players out of 2146 players (11.4%), who were under 22 at the time of draft.

What is the definition of a good player?

Is your conclusion that group A (22 years or older and from a weak conference) has a higher success rate than group B (any age or conference) of meeting the criteria (All-Star or All-NBA, etc)?

No, cause there's a bunch of guesstimates being done. E.g. 7 good players from each draft might be unrealistic if the marker for "good player" is that they need to be MVP/all-star/DPOY/all-NBA/etc. I think you'll be hard pressed to find 7 in each draft.

A drafted 22 year old, whether from a weak/strong conference, may have a higher chance of being an NBA rotation player compared to the field based on the context:

1) Most players with NBA aspirations will declare for the draft before 22 years old

2) Some players prolong their college years because they want/need to get better in order to be drafted. If they don't get better, they won't be drafted or won't even declare.

3) 22 year old players will never be drafted without on-court production.

4) Because they will already have proven that they've improved or can play, there's a higher chance they don't bust. Whereas a ton of picks under 22 are based on "potential/upside", and a lot of the time it never works out.

It's a pretty basic principle that applies to prospects across the board, players who have shown they can play and have good instincts on the court are safer bets than players who are projects. The bigger the project, the bigger the risk. If we look at past risers or hyped up players, many have busted because their ability was only theoretical..they've never proven it on the court.

So rather focusing on age, I would focus on what Cedric can actually do. For me, the question isn't whether he can be a ball-handler, but whether he can generate elite off-ball shooting in the likes of Korver, Ray and Klay. Is he a movement shooter, can he hit side step 3's, 2 dribble shots, etc. If his game tape shows he's mainly a catch and shoot type of 3 point shooter, I think his value goes down. Struggling against better opponents (maybe who guard him tighter) is also a yellow flag.

this whole conversation is wierd and pointless.

A covid year and now NIL money are going to change all the age dynamics.

Anyone looking at his age is looking at the wrong things

[SpezNc]

What is the definition of a good player?

Is your conclusion that group A (22 years or older and from a weak conference) has a higher success rate than group B (any age or conference) of meeting the criteria (All-Star or All-NBA, etc)?

No, cause there's a bunch of guesstimates being done. E.g. 7 good players from each draft might be unrealistic if the marker for "good player" is that they need to be MVP/all-star/DPOY/all-NBA/etc. I think you'll be hard pressed to find 7 in each draft.

A drafted 22 year old, whether from a weak/strong conference, may have a higher chance of being an NBA rotation player compared to the field based on the context:

1) Most players with NBA aspirations will declare for the draft before 22 years old

2) Some players prolong their college years because they want/need to get better in order to be drafted. If they don't get better, they won't be drafted or won't even declare.

3) 22 year old players will never be drafted without on-court production.

4) Because they will already have proven that they've improved or can play, there's a higher chance they don't bust. Whereas a ton of picks under 22 are based on "potential/upside", and a lot of the time it never works out.

It's a pretty basic principle that applies to prospects across the board, players who have shown they can play and have good instincts on the court are safer bets than players who are projects. The bigger the project, the bigger the risk. If we look at past risers or hyped up players, many have busted because their ability was only theoretical..they've never proven it on the court.

So rather focusing on age, I would focus on what Cedric can actually do. For me, the question isn't whether he can be a ball-handler, but whether he can generate elite off-ball shooting in the likes of Korver, Ray and Klay. Is he a movement shooter, can he hit side step 3's, 2 dribble shots, etc. If his game tape shows he's mainly a catch and shoot type of 3 point shooter, I think his value goes down. Struggling against better opponents (maybe who guard him tighter) is also a yellow flag.

this whole conversation is wierd and pointless.

A covid year and now NIL money are going to change all the age dynamics.

Anyone looking at his age is looking at the wrong things

Agree

Like you mentioned NIL money is a game changer

[Clutch0z24]

Kawhi was projected to be more a 3&D, so I think it depends.
But we definitely missed Siakam, where our Barnes (bottom 20 efficiency in the league who so called 20PPG), Poeltl (hardly able to create), Quickley and Dick can really create and get you points (particularly in playoffs).

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

;t

Kawhi wasn't really just a 3&D guy he had a mid range jumper and a solid ability to create his own shot + A post up fade or attack game....Kinda like Coward in a way.....I don't see Bryant/Noa/Fleming at this kinda level....

Kawhi should have went higher in the draft but if my memory is correct people questioned his athletic ability since he wasn't the best leaper in college and looked a little slow footed....And his jumpshot did not look the smoothest....But he looked like he had the ability to be a 3 level scorer in college And had a little bit of a dribble package...

At 9th i don't see a "Big wing Defender" in this class having that trait....Noa looks more like a slasher without much of an offnsive package, Bryant to me looks like a Catch & Shoot Corner guy without a Middy or get to the basket skills, Fleming who i like out of all the 3&D guys looks like he can't really self create as well...

Think at 9th the defenders are all pretty raw on the offensive side of things but i like Fleming the most if i had to choose one...

Think at 9 if a guy who can self create and looks to have 3 level scoring upside + Defend i think its worth it more to gamble on that...

Leonard can't create his shot. He might able to get to his spot and take a jump shot in his second year, but his shooting was rather bad. His TS% was 51% in college.

You have to look at film....Rather than the %s.....Film shows that he shows the ability to create his own shot in college....If you show flashes of it at the lower levels means it has a good chance to translate to the NBA.....Guys like Noa/Bryant have not shown they can do these things at the lower level (College) On film....It would take a wild development curve for a player who can't do it in college to all of sudden do it in the NBA is what im saying....Kawhi showed flashes of it in college ....He was not just a 3&D guy....Thats why it developed in the NBA to where he is a very good self creator now....

[Clutch0z24]

First of all, I want to make clear that Im not a CB bandwagoner, not sure if I would take him at 9 or whatever. But let's play.

I think dynamic scorers are more valuable than a utility player....For example....What does Bryant for example do better on the court than Coward/Jase.....How many things can you name he is better at?....

Guard big wings. Not sure about the shooting but I did see all his attempts and quite liked that he would shoot whether he was guarded or not and the mechanics seemed very very close. If he's any better shooter than Jase or Coward not sure. You including Coward there makes it difficult for me to make the point since he is closer to CB than he is to Jase,

Bryant has height (Has nothing to do with on court production)....Maybe a little tad bit better defense....But its not like Bryant has best wing defender in the league upside here....

Hard to say if he has best in league potential... let's assume he's OG... height definitively works for defense so I'd say he will always be a better defender than Jase so his defense is way way more than "a tad bit better" than 6'0 Jase. Coward, again, much more difficult to compare.

Now lets see what he doesn't have....Does not attack the basket, Does not have a good handle to get past or break down defenders, Does not get to the FT line, Can not really self create at all....

Again, in my view not everybody ought to do everything (OG)... you can be a hell of player defending the oppo best player and sticking open threes, You can play that role on a championship team (see, Danny Green)

Now so many negatives ^ Hes also not a better shooter than Jase or Coward....So you can't use that one....So what does Bryant do better on the basketball court exactly?....If a good defender lets say Alex Caruso/Jaden McDaniels etc takes away Bryants 3 point shot?....What does he have in his offensive bag to combat that?....He does not have the ball handling skills to put the ball on the floor against these type of defenders or a mid range game...And is horrible at finishing in the paint ...(Fast break dunks not included or cutting dunks im talking about self created finishing in the paint)

If a Caruso-level defender left your best player to take your corner man's three you are winning. All he need to do is pass it out, looks like he can do that.

So at that point he becomes kind of useless on the court and a fast break guy....Our teams been the worst in Half court offense, Offense in general....Bryant does not really help our negatives enough to warrrent picking him 9th when there could be a guy available that can help them...

Two sides of the ball.

Thats my thought process on it anyways...

The only thing we're sure about is that there is no sure-fire way of knowing these things, take professionals with all the resources and their record is as close to 50% as it gets. I'd like to think Masai is a little better so I'll go with his stuff and try to see what he saw. In the meantime im absolutely certain I have 50% chance to be right about this.

My point is...

Jase is better at Self creating, Shots off the dribble, Ball handling, Attacking the rim, Getting to the FT line, Finishing around the basket, Passing, Foot work, Breaking defenders down, 3 Point shooting, 3 Point % , While also not being far behind on the defensive end compared to Bryant (Jase is still a pretty great defender despite his size he is very capable of defending PGs/SGs at an elite level)....Jase just has the superior game overall...

Same could be said about Coward since Coward showed he can get to his spots on the floor and make shots....Bryant in college had a very limited Role...With higher usage he could get worse....Which means he might be a utility player his whole career....At 9th for me personally id take the swing on a player who has more overall skills on the basketball court because them are the players that usually break out to being more than just a role player...

[Indeed]

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

;t

Kawhi wasn't really just a 3&D guy he had a mid range jumper and a solid ability to create his own shot + A post up fade or attack game....Kinda like Coward in a way.....I don't see Bryant/Noa/Fleming at this kinda level....

Kawhi should have went higher in the draft but if my memory is correct people questioned his athletic ability since he wasn't the best leaper in college and looked a little slow footed....And his jumpshot did not look the smoothest....But he looked like he had the ability to be a 3 level scorer in college And had a little bit of a dribble package...

At 9th i don't see a "Big wing Defender" in this class having that trait....Noa looks more like a slasher without much of an offnsive package, Bryant to me looks like a Catch & Shoot Corner guy without a Middy or get to the basket skills, Fleming who i like out of all the 3&D guys looks like he can't really self create as well...

Think at 9th the defenders are all pretty raw on the offensive side of things but i like Fleming the most if i had to choose one...

Think at 9 if a guy who can self create and looks to have 3 level scoring upside + Defend i think its worth it more to gamble on that...

Leonard can't create his shot. He might able to get to his spot and take a jump shot in his second year, but his shooting was rather bad. His TS% was 51% in college.

You have to look at film....Rather than the %s.....Film shows that he shows the ability to create his own shot in college....If you show flashes of it at the lower levels means it has a good chance to translate to the NBA.....Guys like Noa/Bryant have not shown they can do these things at the lower level (College) On film....It would take a wild development curve for a player who can't do it in college to all of sudden do it in the NBA is what im saying....Kawhi showed flashes of it in college ....He was not just a 3&D guy....Thats why it developed in the NBA to where he is a very good self creator now....

I looked at both the film you posted, but I cannot claim Leonard can create his own shot on his first year. Second year he can get to his spot, but that was a low percentage shot (I am unsure if back in the day that would be acceptable, but certainly not making a lot of it). He might showed some flashes getting into his spot, but I can't say he created his shot.

Meanwhile, Leonard wasn't even a 3&D in his first year, only shooting 20% from 3.

[PhilBlackson]

I said it earlier but people really need to simmah down on the Kawhi comparison….Kawhi made an astronomical jump & improvement in his entire offensive game from dribble combinations, to footwork, to post game etc etc and the even bigger difference is he has an almost innate ability to play at his own pace. That’s a VERY rare quality that generally only the truly elite players have…just assuming Coward will add all of that it’s absolutely insane as it’s obv an anomaly.

Again I think a smaller, slower Glen Rice is a far more realistic hope for his potential even though I understand how eerily similar Coward’s jumper looks to Kawhi’s.

[Duffman100]

CMB vs Mogbo? Obviously age is the main difference, but what else?

[PhilBlackson]

CMB vs Mogbo? Obviously age is the main difference, but what else?

CMB has much more post & scoring game around the basket. I personally like him but don’t want to draft him because he obv plays the same position, style as Scottie with equally bad shooting. But he does have a better scoring ability than Mogbo. Mogbo only has some “Draymond” not the “Randle” offensive ability I think CMB does.

[Clutch0z24]

Leonard can't create his shot. He might able to get to his spot and take a jump shot in his second year, but his shooting was rather bad. His TS% was 51% in college.

You have to look at film....Rather than the %s.....Film shows that he shows the ability to create his own shot in college....If you show flashes of it at the lower levels means it has a good chance to translate to the NBA.....Guys like Noa/Bryant have not shown they can do these things at the lower level (College) On film....It would take a wild development curve for a player who can't do it in college to all of sudden do it in the NBA is what im saying....Kawhi showed flashes of it in college ....He was not just a 3&D guy....Thats why it developed in the NBA to where he is a very good self creator now....

I looked at both the film you posted, but I cannot claim Leonard can create his own shot on his first year. Second year he can get to his spot, but that was a low percentage shot (I am unsure if back in the day that would be acceptable, but certainly not making a lot of it). He might showed some flashes getting into his spot, but I can't say he created his shot.

Meanwhile, Leonard wasn't even a 3&D in his first year, only shooting 20% from 3.

I guess what im saying is on film you can clearly see a player who is much more than just a 3&D guy....Hes a player who showed flashes of being a good player at 3 levels....Bryant for example has not shown he can put the ball on the floor and create for himself, He also is very poor at getting to the rim....Hes athletic sure ....But he lacks alot of basketball skills to be anything more than a corner 3 point shooter/defender....OG even had more ability to attack the rim in his college season...

I just think at 9 there will be better players to choose from than a utility player....I think there are a few players avail that have much more skills all around.

[Clutch0z24]

I said it earlier but people really need to simmah down on the Kawhi comparison….Kawhi made an astronomical jump & improvement in his entire offensive game from dribble combinations, to footwork, to post game etc etc and the even bigger difference is he has an almost innate ability to play at his own pace. That’s a VERY rare quality that generally only the truly elite players have…just assuming Coward will add all of that it’s absolutely insane as it’s obv an anomaly.

Again I think a smaller, slower Glen Rice is a far more realistic hope for his potential even though I understand how eerily similar Coward’s jumper looks to Kawhi’s.

No one is comparing Kawhi to anyone the convo is about....In college Kawhi if you actually take the time to watch film on him in college....There are flashes you can see him creating his own shot and getting to his spots and hitting tough shots....For a player like Bryant in college not much film like that exists.....It took Kawhi who showed flashes of it to make a rare curve in becoming what he became....Imagine what it would take for a player like Bryant who has not even showed flashes of it in college what kinda super rare curve it would take....Prolly not gonna happen for him and at 9th i think we can get more than a role player....

Coward compared to Bryant at least showed flashes of it...

[Psubs]

I said it earlier but people really need to simmah down on the Kawhi comparison….Kawhi made an astronomical jump & improvement in his entire offensive game from dribble combinations, to footwork, to post game etc etc and the even bigger difference is he has an almost innate ability to play at his own pace. That’s a VERY rare quality that generally only the truly elite players have…just assuming Coward will add all of that it’s absolutely insane as it’s obv an anomaly.

Again I think a smaller, slower Glen Rice is a far more realistic hope for his potential even though I understand how eerily similar Coward’s jumper looks to Kawhi’s.

No one is comparing Kawhi to anyone the convo is about....In college Kawhi if you actually take the time to watch film on him in college....There are flashes you can see him creating his own shot and getting to his spots and hitting tough shots....For a player like Bryant in college not much film like that exists.....It took Kawhi who showed flashes of it to make a rare curve in becoming what he became....Imagine what it would take for a player like Bryant who has not even showed flashes of it in college what kinda super rare curve it would take....Prolly not gonna happen for him and at 9th i think we can get more than a role player....

Coward compared to Bryant at least showed flashes of it...

He should be compared to a Derozan level prospect. At the time, I was like really, okay I trust that they saw more of him to take him in the top 10. Bryant shows waaaaaay more on the defensive end and a 3pt shot, with post moves and ability to catch lobs and at least PF/SF handles.

[Duffman100]

CMB vs Mogbo? Obviously age is the main difference, but what else?

CMB has much more post & scoring game around the basket. I personally like him but don’t want to draft him because he obv plays the same position, style as Scottie with equally bad shooting. But he does have a better scoring ability than Mogbo. Mogbo only has some “Draymond” not the “Randle” offensive ability I think CMB does.

That makes sense, thanks. I always forget how bad Mogbo is around the bucket

[Yallbecrazy]

CMB vs Mogbo? Obviously age is the main difference, but what else?

CMB has much more post & scoring game around the basket. I personally like him but don’t want to draft him because he obv plays the same position, style as Scottie with equally bad shooting. But he does have a better scoring ability than Mogbo. Mogbo only has some “Draymond” not the “Randle” offensive ability I think CMB does.

Mogbo is a good passer with good bbiq, but CMB is better and has higher bbiq. Mogbo jumped a little higher (3 inches) and was a little faster in the sprint, CMB quicker in the shuttle. CMB is also 15 lbs heavier and quite a bit stronger.

CMB got to the line more (.556 ftr vs .321) and was slightly less efficient overall (64.8% TS vs 63%), but carried a 4% higher usage.

Main difference is Mogbo did it in the WCC (best of the non major conferences in my opinion, but still a non major so significantly weaker competition), CMB did it 2.7 years younger in the SEC (best conference in college basketball history) and believe it or not Mogbo's teammates were quite a bit better by oBPM (which does adjust for competition) including being much better shooters than CMB's so better spacing and opportunities.


edit: I had the WCC as the best of the majors when I was scouting Podziemski per sports reference. It actually fell quite a bit in their rankings the next season with Mogbo.

[WuTang_OG]

https://hoopshype.com/lists/aggregate-2025-nba-mock-draft-6-0-post-combine-scouting-and-intel/

[Duffman100]

CMB vs Mogbo? Obviously age is the main difference, but what else?

CMB has much more post & scoring game around the basket. I personally like him but don’t want to draft him because he obv plays the same position, style as Scottie with equally bad shooting. But he does have a better scoring ability than Mogbo. Mogbo only has some “Draymond” not the “Randle” offensive ability I think CMB does.

Mogbo is a good passer with good bbiq, but CMB is better and has higher bbiq. Mogbo jumped a little higher (3 inches) and was a little faster in the sprint, CMB quicker in the shuttle. CMB is also 15 lbs heavier and quite a bit stronger.

CMB got to the line more (.556 ftr vs .321) and was slightly less efficient overall (64.8% TS vs 63%), but carried a 4% higher usage.

Main difference is Mogbo did it in the WCC (best of the non major conferences in my opinion, but still a non major so significantly weaker competition), CMB did it 2.7 years younger in the SEC (best conference in college basketball history) and believe it or not Mogbo's teammates were quite a bit better by oBPM (which does adjust for competition) including being much better shooters than CMB's so better spacing and opportunities.

Awesome thanks! Why I love this forum.

I still hesitate to draft CMB and having both him and Mogbo in our bench frontcourt seems ... bad.