I expect CMB falls -- and if so I see him as too good to pass up. I disagree with the Jared Vanderbilt slight. His stats don't compare to Vanderbilt's Kentucky stats. His freshman and sophomore years are a doppelganger of Draymond's sophomore and junior years. Except while Dray was an outlier passer, CMB is a far more efficient scorer on much higher usage, and fouled less than Dray.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/collin-murray-boyles-1.htmlhttps://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/draymond-green-1.htmlI don't see the scoring as 'small conference big bully'. He scored even though everyone knew he was his team's sole option. Thus he got to the line at a remarkable rate. This, even though he was often playing center as a 6'7" fireplug. Yes he can't go right, yes he has no jump shot, didn't matter. He scored anyway. Or got to the line. Or made the smart pass when stopped. Or all of the above like in the 1st game against the big front line of eventual NCAA champs Florida. (FG 6-9, 1-1 from 3, 8 assists, 5 boards, 3 blocks in a 1pt loss).
He scored efficiently not because he's bigger and stronger than anyone else. He scored because of an understanding of the angles and opportunities that is seconds ahead of the everyone else. The player he reminds me of in this respect is James Harden. I recall wondering how in hades Harden was able to score so efficiently despite not being quicker or more athletic than anyone on either team. He had a pot belly and that plumber's strength, but didn't really have all the moves he later developed. He was just smarter than his defenders. Knew what to do when.
This to me is a thing I saw in Dray in college, when he popped up on my stat searches. He too was just smarter than everybody. Didn't matter that he had no real position on court, you could see he just read the game better. Now I don't expect CMB to be Dray in the NBA, I'm saying I liked Dray's stats back then, how he played, and would argue for him today if he were in this draft. Even as a soph and jr, despite his meh 3pt % and sub 70% FT shooting, you could see he knew the game inside out. Likewise I think CMB is too savvy to fail. He has a skill set that will translate in ways that commute to wins. A plus minus champion. That's a guy I want on this team.
For that reason I'm 100% in disagreement that CMB stunts team development. To my reckoning, he's a near ideal fit here. Ok sure he'd be better if he could reliably hit a jumper from the FT line and out. Yes we need shooters. Ok he doesn't project as a great one. I think he will work at it, as Dray did, to the point where he will hit an open shot often enough to make a difference. But that's not the role I see him in.
Anyway we have those guys. Or are trying to grow them. The ideal is if Sarr actually develops that 3-ball as a real threat and forces teams to send bigs to chase him. Too, Kyshawn looks like he can become that 6'10" outside shooting 3&D forward. Key is not going to be a power player on the interior but he will be tall enough to force long armed 3's and 4's to be sent at him if his shot starts falling. IF Vuk proves playable, same thing. Bigs will chase to outside, leaving the interior soft.
So rather than add an additional lanky outside shooting forward, more than anything we need an upgrade in defensive smarts, we need rebounding, junk scoring in the front court, situational intelligence, toughness. We need a screen setter and playmaker at the hub position. We need an offensive rebounder who can anticipate and track down the misses we generate from 3. We need a clean-up guy in the paint who can score with opportunistic buckets and rebound in traffic.
And for our guards we need a big who can play big. Screen setters and heavy picks. Bub hit 60% from mid-range for much of the year. And a high % from long two. He hits open shots, and can get himself open. He's a master of using screens and picks to get himself free. He needs a partner in the 2-man game to get those open looks. I expect his clean shooting to translate into a pretty-looking 3pt % over time. His stepback already looks nice. If he has a dirty work guy to smear opponents with a pick and force them under, he can get daylight for that developing threeball. A smart savvy utility player will open his game wide.
Double that need if we do get a guy like Tre Johnson who can run off ball all game long, and is a remarkable catch and shoot player. You want a guy who can lead the league in screen assists. We don't have that guy here and can't grow one. Kyshawn is not setting a heavy pick. Sarr would fold like origami.
But what we do have in our forwards and bigs are smooth passers with smart read/react ability. CMB adds to and enhances that. His game smarts is unsettling. Not just his scoring, but passing and offball play. Check his initiation from the top of the key in dribble drive or passing off the short roll. He has some of the same dribble attack that DQ has, same smarts, with quicker feet.
This role is not unique. Draymond Green did not invent the high post offense, he just took advantage of the fact that he had players around him that played well in motion. He started out playing as a connector from the FT. Didn't add range until teams consistently started leaving him open. Until then he was playing a pretty traditional high post offense, passing to guards in motion and Iggy on the backdoor cut. We have motion guards in Poole/Bub. We have a potential Iggy in Bilal. Yes we need shooters, but shooters are available in every draft. I want a true Pivot player.
I'll take that player in Sorber if we can get him. He's smart, young and legit huge. Longer than most centers in wingspan, heaviest player in this draft with a frame strong enough to hold at a standstill your Embiid/Joker/Edey goliaths. (Or at least check them up long enough for Sarr to come in with a weakside block). As a freshman he showed high end passing and smarts, with the makings of a solid jumpshot. If we don't take Maluach early, then Sorber is my guy mid-draft. But on defense while he may be effective at his position he would be less versatile than CMB.
On defense CMB adds a defensive captain we need most. A defender who can play both large and small as needed, who can box out multiple players on a single possession, switch 1-5, wreak havoc in passing lanes by anticipation and reach without having to jump out of position. In this draft only Cedric Coward and Rasheer Fleming had both wider wingspan and better lane agility. (Freaks the both of them). Neither of those guys had the two-way smarts I see in CMB though. He's an instant veteran. We spend a roster spot every year on a guy like Anthony Gill at the back end of our roster, instead of a young talented leader who can grow with the team. Why spend that slot on a guy who is #15 on the roster and only plays in garbage time. If you want your young players to get better, get them a peer who can exemplify the play while elevating the efficiency of your starters. I like Justin Champagnie just fine, our team plays better with his rebounding and energy. My sense is CMB would do the same for the team, only as a player who is bigger, longer, more solid and a better defender. I see him as our Al Horford. PJ Tucker. Udonis Haslem. Lu Dort. That indispensable guy on winning teams who doesn't get the credit for the work they do, but leads the team in Plus/Minus every minute they are out there.
At 6? Not where I want to take him. I think he slips since his game doesn't show up in workouts and measurements. But if I could steal him outside the lottery? Get an extra pick? I'm happy for it.
