Official Scottie All Star Barnes Thread 9

[Tripod]

We need some new Raptors news because we are regurgitating the same info every few weeks...lol

[tsherkin]

We need some new Raptors news because we are regurgitating the same info every few weeks...lol

After the draft, we'll start to get a little bit of fresh conversation. And if Masai makes any moves. This is the trouble every offseason, when there's nothing new to say because nothing else has changed.

[anotherhomer]

We need some new Raptors news because we are regurgitating the same info every few weeks...lol

After the draft, we'll start to get a little bit of fresh conversation. And if Masai makes any moves. This is the trouble every offseason, when there's nothing new to say because nothing else has changed.

so you want to start talking about gain 10 lbs of muscle conversation now

[OakleyDokely]

This alpha scorer thing is so overblown. There's like 5-6 guys in the entire league I'd trust to be a #1 championship option consistently year after year and all those guys are going to be in the hall of fame and some of them are among the best players of all-time. Putting those type of expectations on anyone is ridiculous.

"Overblown" is the wrong word, as is "ridiculous." Those are the kind of players you need in order to compete for a title, the kind of player you hope to get with a top-4 pick, and it is a role which the franchise was attempting to force on Scottie.

That he isn't such a player, and that he indeed isn't a very good on-ball scorer or shooter at all, also does not preclude him from being a useful piece to a quality team, as discussed. They are not concepts inextricably wed together. Scottie can be useful to us without being an elite scoring threat, for sure. It just means we need to seek some of those things elsewhere. And because we lack a HoF-level talent on the team, we will need to pursue a more distributed offense, and then sink hard into defense. And there, Scottie can help us quite a bit.

True alpha scorers are hard to get even with #1 picks, let alone top 4 picks. A lot of them are hiding in the mid 1st round or later, and they aren't so obvious as prospects.


I don't know what Scottie did in college to make people believe he'd be Kevin Durant or something along those lines. He hasn't ever displayed that type of offensive skill even in his rookie year.

The Raps have let him try different things offensively during rebuild/tanking seasons, but he's been his most effective playing behind guys like Siakam who are able to carry bigger offensive load. Bringing in a scorer like Ingram pushes Scottie down the pecking order, and he can focus more on things he excels at.

Casting Barnes as a #1 option is like casting Mobley, or JJJ as a primary option. It's just bad casting.

[tsherkin]

True alpha scorers are hard to get even with #1 picks, let alone top 4 picks. A lot of them are hiding in the mid 1st round or later, and they aren't so obvious as prospects.

Absolutely.

I don't know what Scottie did in college to make people believe he'd be Kevin Durant or something along those lines. He hasn't ever displayed that type of offensive skill even in his rookie year.

I don't know either. None of his pre-draft reports indicated it was possible. The franchise, however, seemed intent on trying, which was obviously an error.

The Raps have let him try different things offensively during rebuild/tanking seasons, but he's been his most effective playing behind guys like Siakam who are able to carry bigger offensive load. Bringing in a scorer like Ingram pushes Scottie down the pecking order, and he can focus more on things he excels at.

I agree.

Casting Barnes as a #1 option is like casting Mobley, or JJJ as a primary option. It's just bad casting.

Yup, with you so far.

I imagine it's frustration from seeing him positioned in this role, and after we got rid of better scorers (which is what enabled him to be featured thus) which is causing the consternation. It should have been perfectly obvious from the word 'go' that it was dumb as sin to feature him that way, and the results have been quite predictable.

[PushDaRock]

True alpha scorers are hard to get even with #1 picks, let alone top 4 picks. A lot of them are hiding in the mid 1st round or later, and they aren't so obvious as prospects.

Absolutely.

I don't know what Scottie did in college to make people believe he'd be Kevin Durant or something along those lines. He hasn't ever displayed that type of offensive skill even in his rookie year.

I don't know either. None of his pre-draft reports indicated it was possible. The franchise, however, seemed intent on trying, which was obviously an error.

The Raps have let him try different things offensively during rebuild/tanking seasons, but he's been his most effective playing behind guys like Siakam who are able to carry bigger offensive load. Bringing in a scorer like Ingram pushes Scottie down the pecking order, and he can focus more on things he excels at.

I agree.

Casting Barnes as a #1 option is like casting Mobley, or JJJ as a primary option. It's just bad casting.

Yup, with you so far.

I imagine it's frustration from seeing him positioned in this role, and after we got rid of better scorers (which is what enabled him to be featured thus) which is causing the consternation. It should have been perfectly obvious from the word 'go' that it was dumb as sin to feature him that way, and the results have been quite predictable.

I wouldn't say it was an error to put him in that position. He put up a 20/8/6 season on 56.6 TS% the previous season. I don't think it was insane to think he could have improved upon that in year 4 with a bigger role as a 23 year old that should still be ascending. I would say it's more surprising that he regressed so badly instead if anything.

[OakleyDokely]

True alpha scorers are hard to get even with #1 picks, let alone top 4 picks. A lot of them are hiding in the mid 1st round or later, and they aren't so obvious as prospects.

Absolutely.

I don't know what Scottie did in college to make people believe he'd be Kevin Durant or something along those lines. He hasn't ever displayed that type of offensive skill even in his rookie year.

I don't know either. None of his pre-draft reports indicated it was possible. The franchise, however, seemed intent on trying, which was obviously an error.

The Raps have let him try different things offensively during rebuild/tanking seasons, but he's been his most effective playing behind guys like Siakam who are able to carry bigger offensive load. Bringing in a scorer like Ingram pushes Scottie down the pecking order, and he can focus more on things he excels at.

I agree.

Casting Barnes as a #1 option is like casting Mobley, or JJJ as a primary option. It's just bad casting.

Yup, with you so far.

I imagine it's frustration from seeing him positioned in this role, and after we got rid of better scorers (which is what enabled him to be featured thus) which is causing the consternation. It should have been perfectly obvious from the word 'go' that it was dumb as sin to feature him that way, and the results have been quite predictable.

The Raps really had nothing to lose by giving him a large offensive role in the off chance he figures it out. But the trade for Ingram signals to me that the experiment is over at least for now. That's not a bad thing imo because Scottie has so many skills that can still be unlocked, especially defensively.

[Raps in 4]

We need some new Raptors news because we are regurgitating the same info every few weeks...lol

We need some footage of Scottie doing drills with his highschool trainer.

[Raps in 4]

This alpha scorer thing is so overblown. There's like 5-6 guys in the entire league I'd trust to be a #1 championship option consistently year after year and all those guys are going to be in the hall of fame and some of them are among the best players of all-time. Putting those type of expectations on anyone is ridiculous.

"Overblown" is the wrong word, as is "ridiculous." Those are the kind of players you need in order to compete for a title, the kind of player you hope to get with a top-4 pick, and it is a role which the franchise was attempting to force on Scottie.

That he isn't such a player, and that he indeed isn't a very good on-ball scorer or shooter at all, also does not preclude him from being a useful piece to a quality team, as discussed. They are not concepts inextricably wed together. Scottie can be useful to us without being an elite scoring threat, for sure. It just means we need to seek some of those things elsewhere. And because we lack a HoF-level talent on the team, we will need to pursue a more distributed offense, and then sink hard into defense. And there, Scottie can help us quite a bit.

True alpha scorers are hard to get even with #1 picks, let alone top 4 picks. A lot of them are hiding in the mid 1st round or later, and they aren't so obvious as prospects.


I don't know what Scottie did in college to make people believe he'd be Kevin Durant or something along those lines. He hasn't ever displayed that type of offensive skill even in his rookie year.

The Raps have let him try different things offensively during rebuild/tanking seasons, but he's been his most effective playing behind guys like Siakam who are able to carry bigger offensive load. Bringing in a scorer like Ingram pushes Scottie down the pecking order, and he can focus more on things he excels at.

Casting Barnes as a #1 option is like casting Mobley, or JJJ as a primary option. It's just bad casting.

I'm higher on JaKobe becoming an alpha scorer than Scottie at this point.

[tsherkin]

I wouldn't say it was an error to put him in that position. He put up a 20/8/6 season on 56.6 TS% the previous season. I don't think it was insane to think he could have improved upon that in year 4 with a bigger role as a 23 year old that should still be ascending. I would say it's more surprising that he regressed so badly instead if anything.

The 56.6% TS was an aberration based on a shortened season and below-average 3pt shooting in volume, based on a sample consistent with his usual "month or two of competent 3pt shooting" trend which has born out over each season of his career thus far. I don't think it is surprising that he regressed at all. He'd shot 28.1% the year prior and 30.1% from 3 as a rookie, shooting like crap from the corners and not showcasing real 3pt range at any level. His pre-draft scouting reports all noted his jumper as a major issue. Obviously, SOMEtimes, guys improve. So it was certainly worth running him some more 3s per game to see what was what. But he was still crap from the corners, and still didn't shoot well overall.

You can choose to characterize it as something else. I can see a semi-legit argument that after the trade, the team went "ah screw it, we're done-zo" and used Scottie volume shooting as a way to tank. But RJ was scoring quite well and Quick was healthy, so that doesn't feel well-supported to me. And in the absence of that motivation, we circle back to it being an error.

A guy for whom shooting (and scoring) was a known issue prior to the draft, never projected as being a major scoring threat, having underwhelmed for two years as a shooter and scorer, being thrust into a higher-usage role in the ABSENCE of the desire to just throw the chips down where they fell in a lost season seems like an error to me. To my thinking, the only way it wasn't was if they'd conceded the season and then the trade pieces overperformed expectations. Which, of course, RJ did. Quick, less so.

[tsherkin]

The Raps really had nothing to lose by giving him a large offensive role in the off chance he figures it out.

Other than games, sure. But of course, the trade appears to have been pulled off in the first place to enable that option. Which is also a worrisome factor for the franchise's odd belief in his potential there.

But the trade for Ingram signals to me that the experiment is over at least for now. That's not a bad thing imo because Scottie has so many skills that can still be unlocked, especially defensively.

I hope so, yes. Scottie is a very good defender, a strong wing rebounder and he's got some playmaking ability as well (though that's less relevant with Ingram inbound, Quick back, RJ's development, Shead and so forth). So hopefully we'll see him more as an undersized 4, running out in transition, moving off-ball and never shooting ATB 3s. That would be ideal. He needs a nice, small role as a scorer so he can focus on his evident and noteworthy strengths.

We spend a lot of time talking about his scoring, so it sometimes gets lost, but you can very much not believe in him as a scorer and still think he's a good player who can be a valuable piece if deployed correctly.

[PushDaRock]

I wouldn't say it was an error to put him in that position. He put up a 20/8/6 season on 56.6 TS% the previous season. I don't think it was insane to think he could have improved upon that in year 4 with a bigger role as a 23 year old that should still be ascending. I would say it's more surprising that he regressed so badly instead if anything.

The 56.6% TS was an aberration based on a shortened season and below-average 3pt shooting in volume, based on a sample consistent with his usual "month or two of competent 3pt shooting" trend which has born out over each season of his career thus far. I don't think it is surprising that he regressed at all. He'd shot 28.1% the year prior and 30.1% from 3 as a rookie, shooting like crap from the corners and not showcasing real 3pt range at any level. His pre-draft scouting reports all noted his jumper as a major issue. Obviously, SOMEtimes, guys improve. So it was certainly worth running him some more 3s per game to see what was what. But he was still crap from the corners, and still didn't shoot well overall.

You can choose to characterize it as something else. I can see a semi-legit argument that after the trade, the team went "ah screw it, we're done-zo" and used Scottie volume shooting as a way to tank. But RJ was scoring quite well and Quick was healthy, so that doesn't feel well-supported to me. And in the absence of that motivation, we circle back to it being an error.

A guy for whom shooting (and scoring) was a known issue prior to the draft, never projected as being a major scoring threat, having underwhelmed for two years as a shooter and scorer, being thrust into a higher-usage role in the ABSENCE of the desire to just throw the chips down where they fell in a lost season seems like an error to me. To my thinking, the only way it wasn't was if they'd conceded the season and then the trade pieces overperformed expectations. Which, of course, RJ did. Quick, less so.

He didn't have a hot shooting month at all this year, so are we expecting a hot shooting month or 2 going forward or will this be the new trend that he just chucks up bricks every month?

The point is we only see last year's shooting as more of a fluke because we now have the benefit of hindsight. Before this season happened, there was more reason for optimism that he had actually improved his shooting rather than it being a hot streak and that he could actually develop into a decent 3 point shooter.

[tsherkin]

He didn't have a hot shooting month at all this year, so are we expecting a hot shooting month or 2 going forward or will this be the new trend that he just chucks up bricks every month?

Technically, he shot over 35% from 3 in April. It was, of course, only 5 games, but it was there.

The point is we only see last year's shooting as more of a fluke because we now have the benefit of hindsight.

Speak for yourself; I was saying it the whole time and have been saying it the entire time since.

Before this season happened, there was more reason for optimism that he had actually improved his shooting rather than it being a hot streak and that he could actually develop into a decent 3 point shooter.

For some, sure. Was not my stance, remains not my stance.

[djsunyc]

True alpha scorers are hard to get even with #1 picks, let alone top 4 picks. A lot of them are hiding in the mid 1st round or later, and they aren't so obvious as prospects.

Absolutely.

I don't know what Scottie did in college to make people believe he'd be Kevin Durant or something along those lines. He hasn't ever displayed that type of offensive skill even in his rookie year.

I don't know either. None of his pre-draft reports indicated it was possible. The franchise, however, seemed intent on trying, which was obviously an error.

The Raps have let him try different things offensively during rebuild/tanking seasons, but he's been his most effective playing behind guys like Siakam who are able to carry bigger offensive load. Bringing in a scorer like Ingram pushes Scottie down the pecking order, and he can focus more on things he excels at.

I agree.

Casting Barnes as a #1 option is like casting Mobley, or JJJ as a primary option. It's just bad casting.

Yup, with you so far.

I imagine it's frustration from seeing him positioned in this role, and after we got rid of better scorers (which is what enabled him to be featured thus) which is causing the consternation. It should have been perfectly obvious from the word 'go' that it was dumb as sin to feature him that way, and the results have been quite predictable.

The Raps really had nothing to lose by giving him a large offensive role in the off chance he figures it out. But the trade for Ingram signals to me that the experiment is over at least for now. That's not a bad thing imo because Scottie has so many skills that can still be unlocked, especially defensively.

this is it. they wanted to let scottie try anything and everything on offense once they traded pascal and og. mind you, it was just one calendar year and they saw they needed another scorer. and he was hurt for a good portion of that time too. it's not as if they sacrificed 2 or 3 seasons on letting scottie jack it up. we didnt even go a full season in a tank year to make that determination.

i think next year is going to see a lot of tweaks on offense as we are going to try to win next year. i personally hope we have a bigger emphasis in the post for scottie but we will see. alot of stuff can change before the season starts.

[PushDaRock]

He didn't have a hot shooting month at all this year, so are we expecting a hot shooting month or 2 going forward or will this be the new trend that he just chucks up bricks every month?

Technically, he shot over 35% from 3 in April. It was, of course, only 5 games, but it was there.

The point is we only see last year's shooting as more of a fluke because we now have the benefit of hindsight.

Speak for yourself; I was saying it the whole time and have been saying it the entire time since.

Before this season happened, there was more reason for optimism that he had actually improved his shooting rather than it being a hot streak and that he could actually develop into a decent 3 point shooter.

For some, sure. Was not my stance, remains not my stance.

Sure, if you want to consider that 5 game sample size at 35% a hot streak, have at it.

21/22 0.8 makes on 30.1%
22/23 0.8 makes on 28.1%
23/24 1.7 makes on 34.1%
24/25 1.2 makes on 27.1%

He made over twice the amount of threes per game the previous season than he did in his first 2 years at a much improved percentage. Improved shooting on significantly higher volume usually correlates to at least some level of improvement in skill level. I think it would make a lot more sense to expect him to only slightly regress, maintain that percentage or improve upon it than it would be for him to shoot a career worse 27% instead after the improvement he showed the previous season.

[tsherkin]

He made over twice the amount of threes per game the previous season than he did in his first 2 years at a much improved percentage. Improved shooting on significantly higher volume usually correlates to at least some level of improvement in skill level. I think it would make a lot more sense to expect him to only slightly regress, maintain that percentage or improve upon it than it would be for him to shoot a career worse 27% instead after the improvement he showed the previous season.

His first three seasons look pretty similar as far as three point shooting months. His 4th season looked a lot like his 2nd season. I don't honestly think much of the outlier from his shortened 2024, personally.

[dTox]

We need some new Raptors news because we are regurgitating the same info every few weeks...lol

We need some footage of Scottie doing drills with his highschool trainer.

Don't look at his IG story from yesterday, he's back with that same trainer in the gym, along with his highschool buddies.

[PushDaRock]

He made over twice the amount of threes per game the previous season than he did in his first 2 years at a much improved percentage. Improved shooting on significantly higher volume usually correlates to at least some level of improvement in skill level. I think it would make a lot more sense to expect him to only slightly regress, maintain that percentage or improve upon it than it would be for him to shoot a career worse 27% instead after the improvement he showed the previous season.

His first three seasons look pretty similar as far as three point shooting months. His 4th season looked a lot like his 2nd season. I don't honestly think much of the outlier from his shortened 2024, personally.

121 made threes on 29% in 151 games in Year 1 & 2 Combined
101 made threes on 34% in 60 games in Year 3

If I'm looking at that, I'm thinking that's more likely a skill improvement rather than outlier shooting. That's a pretty clear difference in not only accuracy but willingness to take more threes in year 3 compared to his first 2 seasons.

We can point to the 30 game hot streak that inflated the numbers and then another 30 games which tanked his percentages, but overall 60 games isn't an insignificant sample size when the numbers are averaged out.

I don't think too much of what looks like an outlier year 3 either, but that's with the hindsight of year 4 now in the books.

[mdenny]

It is certainly true that we should return to speaking of Scottie, and let go of whatever this is about FVV.

Unfortunately, there isn't a lot to say about Scottie at the moment which hasn't already been said, which doesn't leave a lot of inspiration for new discussion around Barnes. We've all heard the positions from both sides, and now we just have to wait and see how the season goes... which, unfortunately, is months and months away.

But there are at least a bunch of environmental changes coming and some opportunities to make his life easier, so there's some hope there for us to cling to in the meantime. We could use some positivity in this moment, I suppose. We're not even in the real off-season for the league as a whole, as the playoffs are still ongoing, but it feels like we are in the dog days of summer already, hehe.

Players like Fred and Pascal had proven themselves as being worthy of optimism regarding their ability to play winning basketball by their second and third seasons.

Scotty has literally provided zero evidence that he is worthy of such optimism. Amd he's going into his 5th season.

Yet he is still way more hyped than any other prospect in raptor history lol.

Because it's a cult.

4 seasons in for all 3 players.....scotty's BEST performance would not rank in the top 10 performances of either fred or pascal.

[earthtone]

This alpha scorer thing is so overblown. There's like 5-6 guys in the entire league I'd trust to be a #1 championship option consistently year after year and all those guys are going to be in the hall of fame and some of them are among the best players of all-time. Putting those type of expectations on anyone is ridiculous.

If the Cavs made Evan Mobley the #1 option, it would be a complete disaster, but that doesn't mean he isn't/won't be a key cog of championship team. It takes different types of players to build a successful team and I'm pretty confident given Barnes' diverse skillset that he can be one of the key players on a very good team.

Yes, and there are different types of elite players.

Guys like Anthony Davis, Embiid, Jaren Jackson Jr., Giannis etc. are elite players but they are not iso closers or guys you can consistently rely on as scorers in 4th quarters.

Scottie is 23 - he's already a 20, 8 and 6 player on average efficiency which is impressive and in rare company. Can he became a 23, 9 and 7 player on above average efficiency and improve his mid-range game and 3 point shooting? Because if he does that he goes from arguably a top 30 player to a top 10 player.

There are elite iso scorers in the NBA like Durant, Steph, Lillard, Luka, Brunson, Haliburton, Booker etc. but not all of these players are the same level of impact player like others.

AD averages 24ppg on 59% TS% across his career, with peaks of 26-28ppg on 58-61% TS%. While being a DPOY level defender.
Embiid averages 28ppg on 61% TS% across his career, with peaks of 30-35ppg on 61.5-65.5% TS%.
Giannis averages 24ppg on 61% TS% across his career, with peaks of 28-30ppg on 60-65% TS%. While being a DPOY defender.
JJJ is the closest comparison, and even he exceeds Scottie by a long shot, averaging more ppg, on much better TS% AND being a DPOY player.

No one is complaining about Scottie not being a bucket as an ISO scorer in the 4th Q, the complaints are that he can't even manage LEAGUE AVERAGE efficiency. Go look at the players you gave as examples, he isn't anywhere close to 3 of them, and the 4th still was outshining him at the same age.

I don't know what you've seen to date that makes you think he can magically improve his 3 for no reason, but I don't see it.

I don't think that's the best group of players for Scottie comps, but even then the gap isn't as wide as you're making it seem.

Over their first four seasons:

AD | 20.8 PPG | 9.7 RPG | 1.7 APG | 57.4% TS
Embiid| 23.9 PPG | 11.5 RPG | 3.1 APG | 58.5% TS
Giannis | 14.9 PPG | 6.9 RPG | 3.6 APG | 56.9% TS
JJJ | 15.8 PPG | 5.1 RPG | 1.2 APG | 56.6% TS
Scottie | 17.2 PPG | 7.5 RPG | 5.0 APG | 54.1% TS.

Scottie's not a perfect player and of course the efficiency needs to improve, but I don't see the point in acting like he's finished with development. Every single one of those players above (and the vast majority of players who get rookie max extensions) improved their volume and efficiency as they enter their prime. Why is it unreasonable to project the same for Scottie?