2024-25 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V1.0

[mdenny]

If one looked at the draft purely rationally and logically.....there SHOULD be multiple trades by teams moving up and down the draft every single year.

Especially given the increasing variance of big boards in recent years.

One would THINK that teams would be swapping 2 for ones and 3 for ones ALL THE TIME.

But they don't. Very curious. I think it may be the same phenomena that the moneyball book brilliantly identified.

It's purely because of public relations. Trades that move up or down in the draft have a greater potential to be perceived as extremely bad than extremely good.

The moneyball book used the following example: suppose a manager KNOWS that employing a bunt given a specific situation is NOT the optimum decision (given the mathematical probability) but is also aware that the public perception and popular tradition is to employ it.

If he employs the bunt (even tho it was not the optimum approach) and it succeeds all is well. If it fails than the public disappointment is moderate.

However...if he does not bunt and it succeeds....all is well. If he doesn't bunt and it fails than the public disappointment is severe. (Ie CLEARLY HE SHOULD HAVE BUNTED!!!!)

So the book goes on to identify that managers and decision makers are biased by popular opinion INDEPENDENT of the raw probability.

An example might be Masai picking scotty over suggs. If that choice failed....it would be a HUGE story and his critics would be relentless in talking about it for years. But when it succeeds (as it did)....the appreciation or credit received for taking the chance is not equally appreciated to the inverse. And as time passes...it doesn't even seem like a big risk in retrospect (but it was!l

If suggs exploded out the gate and won rookie of the year....masai's choice to draft Barnes would have been the dominant theme on this board to this day. We would NEVER hear the end of it. But masai's risk paid off.....and the risk he took is NOT a dominant theme on the board. It's kinda taken for granted. We all know it was hugely controversial at the time...but the amount of risk involved in that pick has faded with time. And as time passes...masai is given less and less credit for taking that risk.

So the risk is not rewarded to the same degree that it is punished in the inverse.

All this to say....I think the reason NBA teams don't trade up and down in the draft as much as they should.....is because the failures of such moves are criticized more than the successes are praised.

We know that the big boards of nba teams are wildly different from each other. So it stands to reason that EVERY team thinks they can benefit from moving up or down. But they rarely do.

These are the things that interest me lol. It's also one of the reasons I respect Masai so much. He's still willing to take risks knowing that they aren't rewarded equally to how severely they are punished. The moneyball book noted that the "bias towards the safe PR choice" was a huge detriment to many franchises.

[treerollins]

Bobby/Masai made it clear that they need to bolster the front court this summer.

If you look at the four Eastern Conference finalists - Cavs, Celtics, Knicks, Pacers - they all have a stretch big (i.e., Mobley, Porzingis, KAT, Turner).

If we don't draft Maluach, I expect us to be very active in the trade market in order to acquire a capable shooting front-court partner for Scottie.

Poeltl is great but he isn't gonna cut it, especially when the rest of the starting line up consists of average to below average 3pt shooters (Ingram, RJ, Scottie).

luke kornet would be a nice get as back up 5 if we can find the $$.
i’m also on board with drafting carter bryant, i think he offers a lot of what ochai gives us but scaled up to bigger wings. potentially use our second on a pg prospect and then go into the year with our glut of sg’s for potential trades.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Some guys that are nearing their RFA or are currently RFA, and who their teams may not want to extend:

Ben Mathurin
Walker Kessler
Day’Ron Sharpe
Tre Mann
Ousmong Dieng

[CazOnReal]

Naz Reid is the guy, been wanting him for YEARS man.

Also one trade I saw that could benefit us is a IQ for Jamal Murray swap.

We don't have the cap space to sign Naz so unless it's a sign and trade that's not going to work - and even then, the KAT trade was done specifically so they could retain depth pieces like Naz and NAW. As for the other option, frankly, I think the IQ/Murray swap i've seen floated around is one of the dumbest suggestions for a trade for the Raptors under the new CBA.

Jamal Murray is...
-Averaging the same stats almost point for point compared to IQ on about the same efficiency and PER
-Is older than Quickley
-Is significantly more expensive, to the point where it would likely need to be IQ + Ochai or something like that just make the money work
-Is far more injury-prone, having missed big chunks of, if not, entire seasons due to injury whereas Quickley has only had one notable season where injury was an issue
-Frequently coasts in the regular season when his team needs him to step up
-Has been remarkably inconsistent in the playoffs recently despite having the reputation of being a playoff riser

Some guys that are nearing their RFA or are currently RFA, and who their teams may not want to extend:

Ben Mathurin
Walker Kessler
Day’Ron Sharpe
Tre Mann
Ousmong Dieng

The only one on that list I see as being a potential option is Sharpe. Toronto has been rumored to have interest in him for some time though with what cap space they'll sign him with...yeah, not a clue unless they do trade RJ to a team with cap space or they make some other trade in the draft or at the opening of free agency.

[causal_fan]

Keegan Murray had a down year and is a RFA - How do posters feel about a possible sign & trade with the Kings or does BI make Murray redundant?

[Spida888]

Keegan Murray had a down year and is a RFA - How do posters feel about a possible sign & trade with the Kings or does BI make Murray redundant?

I'd be interested depending on what they want back and how much Keegan is looking for. I'm not sure Kings will give up on him considering they don't have many good young pieces.

An RJ-Murray swap of some sort would be ideal for us to get more shooting for the team. I can see SAC being more interested in IQ though since they don't have a starting PG after trading Fox.

I don't think BI makes Murray redundant. I see BI as our best shot creator and Murray as a 3&D player.

Sabonis may be someone else we'd be interested in for RJ + Poeltl + sweetener. It gives us more cap wiggle room while getting an upgraded center. SAC saves some long term money with RJ and Poetl expiring soon.

[YogurtProducer]

Keegan Murray had a down year and is a RFA - How do posters feel about a possible sign & trade with the Kings or does BI make Murray redundant?

I'd be interested depending on what they want back and how much Keegan is looking for. I'm not sure Kings will give up on him considering they don't have many good young pieces.

An RJ-Murray swap of some sort would be ideal for us to get more shooting for the team. I can see SAC being more interested in IQ though since they don't have a starting PG after trading Fox.

I don't think BI makes Murray redundant. I see BI as our best shot creator and Murray as a 3&D player.

Sabonis may be someone else we'd be interested in for RJ + Poeltl + sweetener. It gives us more cap wiggle room while getting an upgraded center. SAC saves some long term money with RJ and Poetl expiring soon.

Maybe I am a Sabonis hater, but I dont see this team having more upside with Sabonis instead of Poeltl.

Sabonis sucks at everything that you need a center to be good at (namely, defense)

[Mattatron]

Keegan Murray had a down year and is a RFA - How do posters feel about a possible sign & trade with the Kings or does BI make Murray redundant?

I'd be interested depending on what they want back and how much Keegan is looking for. I'm not sure Kings will give up on him considering they don't have many good young pieces.

An RJ-Murray swap of some sort would be ideal for us to get more shooting for the team. I can see SAC being more interested in IQ though since they don't have a starting PG after trading Fox.

I don't think BI makes Murray redundant. I see BI as our best shot creator and Murray as a 3&D player.

Sabonis may be someone else we'd be interested in for RJ + Poeltl + sweetener. It gives us more cap wiggle room while getting an upgraded center. SAC saves some long term money with RJ and Poetl expiring soon.

Maybe I am a Sabonis hater, but I dont see this team having more upside with Sabonis instead of Poeltl.

Sabonis sucks at everything that you need a center to be good at (namely, defense)

I'm not a fan of Sabonis' fit here too, but its a bit of myth that sabonis is bad at defense, he was literally 10th in dpoy voting last year and is having ++ on def stats... he maybe not lateral and quick enough to defend outside the zone, but he's pretty good in the paint.

[Mattatron]

Keegan Murray had a down year and is a RFA - How do posters feel about a possible sign & trade with the Kings or does BI make Murray redundant?

I'd be interested depending on what they want back and how much Keegan is looking for. I'm not sure Kings will give up on him considering they don't have many good young pieces.

An RJ-Murray swap of some sort would be ideal for us to get more shooting for the team. I can see SAC being more interested in IQ though since they don't have a starting PG after trading Fox.

I don't think BI makes Murray redundant. I see BI as our best shot creator and Murray as a 3&D player.

Sabonis may be someone else we'd be interested in for RJ + Poeltl + sweetener. It gives us more cap wiggle room while getting an upgraded center. SAC saves some long term money with RJ and Poetl expiring soon.

Keegan a 3&D lol 3 yeah, but d ? He'll no, he can't defend anyone.

[Psubs]

Bobby/Masai made it clear that they need to bolster the front court this summer.

If you look at the four Eastern Conference finalists - Cavs, Celtics, Knicks, Pacers - they all have a stretch big (i.e., Mobley, Porzingis, KAT, Turner).

If we don't draft Maluach, I expect us to be very active in the trade market in order to acquire a capable shooting front-court partner for Scottie.

Poeltl is great but he isn't gonna cut it, especially when the rest of the starting line up consists of average to below average 3pt shooters (Ingram, RJ, Scottie).

luke kornet would be a nice get as back up 5 if we can find the $$.
i’m also on board with drafting carter bryant, i think he offers a lot of what ochai gives us but scaled up to bigger wings. potentially use our second on a pg prospect and then go into the year with our glut of sg’s for potential trades.

I think a trade for Bitadze and/or signing Luke Kornet would be helpful additions.

[Psubs]

Would you trade RJ for Collins?

I would trade RJ in a package to consolidate assets for say KD. I'd rather sign Luke Kornet that can play C than John Collins, who has negative trade value.

[douggood]

If one looked at the draft purely rationally and logically.....there SHOULD be multiple trades by teams moving up and down the draft every single year.

Especially given the increasing variance of big boards in recent years.

One would THINK that teams would be swapping 2 for ones and 3 for ones ALL THE TIME.

But they don't. Very curious. I think it may be the same phenomena that the moneyball book brilliantly identified.

It's purely because of public relations. Trades that move up or down in the draft have a greater potential to be perceived as extremely bad than extremely good.

but trade up and downs happen so regularly in nfl and nhl, i assume because they have so many more draft picks to make trades, its probably easier to construct trades only using picks.

in nfl especially we see blockbuster trades for top picks.

[YogurtProducer]

I'd be interested depending on what they want back and how much Keegan is looking for. I'm not sure Kings will give up on him considering they don't have many good young pieces.

An RJ-Murray swap of some sort would be ideal for us to get more shooting for the team. I can see SAC being more interested in IQ though since they don't have a starting PG after trading Fox.

I don't think BI makes Murray redundant. I see BI as our best shot creator and Murray as a 3&D player.

Sabonis may be someone else we'd be interested in for RJ + Poeltl + sweetener. It gives us more cap wiggle room while getting an upgraded center. SAC saves some long term money with RJ and Poetl expiring soon.

Maybe I am a Sabonis hater, but I dont see this team having more upside with Sabonis instead of Poeltl.

Sabonis sucks at everything that you need a center to be good at (namely, defense)

I'm not a fan of Sabonis' fit here too, but its a bit of myth that sabonis is bad at defense, he was literally 10th in dpoy voting last year and is having ++ on def stats... he maybe not lateral and quick enough to defend outside the zone, but he's pretty good in the paint.

Being 10th in DPOY voting means getting a single vote, which came from Ignacio Garcia of "MARCA.com".

IDK if that really qualifies as anything to use in a pro-Sabonis defense discussion

[Mattatron]

Maybe I am a Sabonis hater, but I dont see this team having more upside with Sabonis instead of Poeltl.

Sabonis sucks at everything that you need a center to be good at (namely, defense)

I'm not a fan of Sabonis' fit here too, but its a bit of myth that sabonis is bad at defense, he was literally 10th in dpoy voting last year and is having ++ on def stats... he maybe not lateral and quick enough to defend outside the zone, but he's pretty good in the paint.

Being 10th in DPOY voting means getting a single vote, which came from Ignacio Garcia of "MARCA.com".

IDK if that really qualifies as anything to use in a pro-Sabonis defense discussion

C'mon you single out one argument and ignoring all the other facts/stats.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Never happening, but I was trying to think of an RJ trade that worked and snowballed into this concoction

Raps:
Get off RJ contract, save about 5 million this year and more when we don't resign Collins (or maybe we do). We lose Poeltl but get a pretty decent replacement that is younger and can be resigned for cheaper. We pick up 2 additional picks that can be consolidated to move up (a combo of 21+39+43+LAL 2026 SRP can either get us back into the top 15-20 or another good current player). Reunion with JV to come off the bench but I also see the Raptors using one of their firsts in this scenario to get a big (Malauch/Sorber/Yang/Wolf) making JV a cheap asset that we can move later and a mentor for the young guys.

We'd probably start IQ/Walter/Ingram/Scottie/Kessler

Shead/Dick/Ochai/Collins/JV/pick 9/pick 21/pick 39

Kings
Get to move off of Derozan and Sabonis in one deal. They are going nowhere without Fox on the roster with Sabonis and Lavine. They don't get any picks because that Sabonis contract isn't that great for next season and 2 more after that, but they're able to at least get a name in RJ, a young recent lottery pick in Hendricks (coming off an injury) and move Valuncionas in exchange for 2 starter quality bigs. I don't foresee any team trading a top pick for Sabonis so I doubt they can trade him for anyone they can build around immediately along with picks.

They now have Carter/Lavine/RJ/Murray/Poeltl as their starting 5 with the ability to move Monk to get more rotational pieces to round out the bench.

Jazz
Move guys that were not part of their longterm plans (assuming this since they still haven't extended Kessler, JC is likely not back after he takes his PO) and one young guy who is coming off a major injury for an established all star they can afford to keep. They get to keep pick 5 as well to take someone like Tre Johnson or Fears to kickstart their team back into being competitive again.

Mavs
Move Gafford and filler for a playmaker that can score in the clutch while they await Kyrie's return. Takes pressure off of Cooper to be a scorer immediately. Once Kyrie is back Derozan gets his minutes reduced

Derozan/Christie/Klay/Cooper/AD likely to start with Max guarding 1's on defense and Derozan playing PG the same way he did for the Spurs. If they really wanted to cover Derozan on defense they could start Lively instead of Klay (Derozan/Christie/Cooper/AD/Lively).

George/Sexton/Johnson?/Larui/Sabonis

[Tripod]

Keegan Murray had a down year and is a RFA - How do posters feel about a possible sign & trade with the Kings or does BI make Murray redundant?

I'd be interested depending on what they want back and how much Keegan is looking for. I'm not sure Kings will give up on him considering they don't have many good young pieces.

An RJ-Murray swap of some sort would be ideal for us to get more shooting for the team. I can see SAC being more interested in IQ though since they don't have a starting PG after trading Fox.

I don't think BI makes Murray redundant. I see BI as our best shot creator and Murray as a 3&D player.

Sabonis may be someone else we'd be interested in for RJ + Poeltl + sweetener. It gives us more cap wiggle room while getting an upgraded center. SAC saves some long term money with RJ and Poetl expiring soon.

Keegan a 3&D lol 3 yeah, but d ? He'll no, he can't defend anyone.

And his 3 has dramatically dropped the last 2 year after shooting 41% as a rookie.

Last 2 years is shooting around 35%. Rj has actually shot better from 3 as a Raptor the last 2 years just as a comparison to the 2. Or to extend it further, Gradey has shot slightly better from 3 than Murray has the last 2 years.

We don't need him.

[douggood]

I'd be interested depending on what they want back and how much Keegan is looking for. I'm not sure Kings will give up on him considering they don't have many good young pieces.

An RJ-Murray swap of some sort would be ideal for us to get more shooting for the team. I can see SAC being more interested in IQ though since they don't have a starting PG after trading Fox.

I don't think BI makes Murray redundant. I see BI as our best shot creator and Murray as a 3&D player.

Sabonis may be someone else we'd be interested in for RJ + Poeltl + sweetener. It gives us more cap wiggle room while getting an upgraded center. SAC saves some long term money with RJ and Poetl expiring soon.

Keegan a 3&D lol 3 yeah, but d ? He'll no, he can't defend anyone.

And his 3 has dramatically dropped the last 2 year after shooting 41% as a rookie.

Last 2 years is shooting around 35%. Rj has actually shot better from 3 as a Raptor the last 2 years just as a comparison to the 2. Or to extend it further, Gradey has shot slightly better from 3 than Murray has the last 2 years.

We don't need him.

rj barret is just 2 months older than keegan
rj barret contract is similar if not cheaper than keegan new contract. rj has 2 year 28.5 aav left on his deal,
keegan probably gets 4 year 112 (trey murphy contract $28aav) or jalen johnson/suggs 5 year 150 range ($30 aav).

plus lets not forget the byc rules which makes s&t for him a little complicated. not to mention what position does he play here?

[PushDaRock]

These RJ trades are getting out of hand. The likelihood of getting an upgrade for RJ is very low, that player type is an All-Star/All-NBA level player. We also aren't going to trade him for a downgrade when we are still in talent accumulation mode. If the fit looks bad next season and/or someone else on the roster makes a big leap that causes him to be more expendable, we can worry about it then. For now, it's about seeing how all the pieces fit and going from there.

[Tripod]

These RJ trades are getting out of hand. The likelihood of getting an upgrade for RJ is very low, that player type is an All-Star/All-NBA level player. We also aren't going to trade him for a downgrade when we are still in talent accumulation mode. If the fit looks bad next season and/or someone else on the roster makes a big leap that causes him to be more expendable, we can worry about it then. For now, it's about seeing how all the pieces fit and going from there.

And as I said before, BI will miss games as will IQ and Barnes. Having a 20+ point guy in RJ around will very much like needed.

[CazOnReal]

Keegan Murray had a down year and is a RFA - How do posters feel about a possible sign & trade with the Kings or does BI make Murray redundant?

That isn't an option until 2026