2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[eyeatoma]

Posted this in a thread on the Draft Board, but throwing it here. Nothing really new if you read my ramblings on these threads, but really wanted to hammer home that Ace shares little with NBA All Stars when they were coming into the league.

I mean the people you said hit the mark are nearly all guards (for all three hitting the mark) apart form Tatum. Bailey is an SF/PF. Would be interesting if you included current players who play his position. The FTr and passing rate are typical of high scoring and good passing guards.

I went to the all time all stars wikipedia page, filtered by most recent, and chose all non-C players for the past 4 years until I saw Mike Conley's name and felt the point had been made.

For some reason it's considered cherry picking to choose a distribution stat, a foul generating stat, and FT% (which has historically been a good indicator of future jumpshot shooting in the NBA) when trying to figure out which of these prospects has superstar traits. What current players who play his position are you looking for? Non All Stars?

Just think data of all Forwards would be more pertinent. They probably exist, I just don't think gaurds who play a completely different position should really be compared with a 6-8 player, who is always going to be slower, and handle the ball less. That's not cherry picking, it's common sense. Also let's note that Bailey was not the one with the ball in his hands the most, that was Harper. The majority of players you've listed here are the center of the offense. I'd be more interested in seeing it compared to a 2nd or 3rd star. Not saying Bailey can't be a #1 player on a team, just think that is how he produced in college, and that was his role.

If you want to do this comparison I think there is value to also comparing his Highschool numbers which were through the roof. Could also compare the other players high school numbers just to be consistent..

[Negrodamus]

Here you guys go:

Paul George: .364 FTr, 22.4 AST%, 91% FT (3/3)
Kevin Durant: .396 FTr, 8.6 AST%, 82% FT (2/3)
Draymond Green: .367 FTr, 24.2 AST%, 72% FT (2/3)
Gordon Hayward: .579 FTr, 12.1 AST%, 83% FT (3/3)
Jimmy Butler: .628 FTr, 13.2 AST%, 78% FT (3/3)
Klay Thompson: .336 FTr, 25.0 AST%, 84% FT (3/3)
Danny Granger: .585 FTr, 17.8 AST%, 76% FT (3/3)

Is Danny Granger far enough back or should I keep going until I find an all star forward who is 0/3 like Ace Bailey?

[Arsenal]

Here you guys go:

Paul George: .364 FTr, 22.4 AST%, 91% FT (3/3)
Kevin Durant: .396 FTr, 8.6 AST%, 82% FT (2/3)
Draymond Green: .367 FTr, 24.2 AST%, 72% FT (2/3)
Gordon Hayward: .579 FTr, 12.1 AST%, 83% FT (3/3)
Jimmy Butler: .628 FTr, 13.2 AST%, 78% FT (3/3)
Klay Thompson: .336 FTr, 25.0 AST%, 84% FT (3/3)
Danny Granger: .585 FTr, 17.8 AST%, 76% FT (3/3)

Is Danny Granger far enough back or should I keep going until I find an all star forward who is 0/3 like Ace Bailey?

Every single one of those guys except Kevin Durant was an upperclassman.

For some reason you don't think age matters. Ace will only be 18.9 years old at draft time. Being 2, 3, or 4 years younger than some of these guys on your list is a very important factor you seem to discount.

[Negrodamus]

Just think data of all Forwards would be more pertinent. They probably exist, I just don't think gaurds who play a completely different position should really be compared with a 6-8 player, who is always going to be slower, and handle the ball less. That's not cherry picking, it's common sense. Also let's note that Bailey was not the one with the ball in his hands the most, that was Harper. The majority of players you've listed here are the center of the offense. I'd be more interested in seeing it compared to a 2nd or 3rd star. Not saying Bailey can't be a #1 player on a team, just think that is how he produced in college, and that was his role.

If you want to do this comparison I think there is value to also comparing his Highschool numbers which were through the roof. Could also compare the other players high school numbers just to be consistent..

He had a 27.5 USG% which is good for 5th in guys I see projected in the top 20 (Only Fears, Tre, Flagg, Harper are ahead of him). He just didn't create looks for guys. What's worse is that he was tunnel vision without drawing fouls either.

And I'm sorry, but high school is purely to prove you're a blue chip recruit. The stats there mean less than zero to me. Even if he was a 100% FT shooter in the high school setting, it could just mean that he wasn't rattled by the small crowds and only started missing when he had 15k fans screaming at him. What he does against kids isn't interesting when there's a large enough sample size of him playing against men on a national stage is sitting right there.

[Black Mage]

Posted this in a thread on the Draft Board, but throwing it here. Nothing really new if you read my ramblings on these threads, but really wanted to hammer home that Ace shares little with NBA All Stars when they were coming into the league.

Would love someone who hits 10+ AST%, >.300 FTr, >75% FT (Disclaimer: I usually evaluate more than just these numbers but I do feel they are good markers)

Recent wing(ish) all stars college stats (AST%, FTr, FT) the year they went to the draft:

All Three hit mark:
Cade Cunningham: 20.4 AST%, .390 FTr, 85% FT
Jalen Williams: 22.6 AST%, .330 FTr, 81% FT
Jalen Brunson: 26.6 AST%, .313 FTr, 80% FT
Tyrese Maxey: 18.7 AST%, .322 FTr, 83% FT
Ant Edwards: 17.9 AST%, .339 FTr, 77% FT
Shai Gilgeous: ​​28.8 AST%, .464 FTr, 82% FT
Darius Garland*: 25.7 AST%, .296 FTr, 75% FT (I'll give it to him for being close with FTr)
Ja Morant: 51.8 AST%, .512 FTr, 81% FT
Fred VanVleet: 39.6 AST%, .393 FTr, 82% FT
Trae Young: 48.6 AST%, .443, 86% FT
Jayson Tatum: 12.4 AST%, .381 FTr, 85% FT

Hit 2 of the marks:
Brandon Ingram: 11.4 AST%, .351 FTr, 68% FT
Ben Simmons: 27.4 AST%, .769 FTr, 67% FT
Devin Booker: 10.9 AST%, .223 FTr, 83% FT
Donovan Mitchell: 16.0 AST%, .243 FTr, 81% FT
Pascal Siakam: 12.1 AST%, .396 FTr, 68% FT
Zion Williamson: 14.9 AST%, .467, 64% FT
Julius Randle: 10 AST%, .739 FTr, 70% FT
Jaylen Brown: 15.3 AST%, .574 FTr, 65% FT
Andrew Wiggins: 9.2 AST%, .538 FTr, 78% FT
Dejounte Murray: 25.6 AST%, .345 FTr, 66% FT
De’Aaron Fox: 28.6 AST%, .474 FTr, 74% FT
Tyrese Haliburton: 35.3 AST%, .184 FTr, 82% FT
Tyler Herro: 15 AST%, .231 FTr, 94% FT
Paolo Banchero: 17.5 AST%, .366 FTr, 73% FT
Scottie Barnes: 31.6 AST%, .338 FTr, 62% FT

Hit only 1 of the marks:
Zach LaVine: 12.6 AST%, .236 FTr, 69% FT

(*Only 5 games)


This year’s draft

Hit all three:
Cooper Flagg: 26.8 AST%, .429 FTr, 84% FT
Dylan Harper: 27.1 AST%, .419 FTr, 75% FT
VJ Edgecombe: 19.2 AST%, .373 FTr, 78% FT
Jeremiah Fears: 28.6 AST%, .518 FTr, 85% FT
Kon Knueppel: 15.7 AST%, .339 FTr, 91% FT
Kasparas Jaku: 26.0 AST%, .496 FTr, .85% FT
Derik Queen: 11.6 AST%, .546 FTr, 77% FT

Hit 2:
Tre Johnson: 16.5 AST%, .265 FTr, 87% FT


Hit None:
Ace Bailey: 8.3 AST%, .243, 69% FT

I mean the people you said hit the mark are nearly all guards (for all three hitting the mark) apart form Tatum. Bailey is an SF/PF. Would be interesting if you included current players who play his position. The FTr and passing rate are typical of high scoring and good passing guards.

You missed the "ish!" See, Negro was squinting really hard to drive home his narrative which is how Maxey is a wing"ish."

Also, Bailey and Harper both committed to Rutgers BEFORE the majority of experienced players entered the transfer portal. Rather than cash out, both honored their commitments. There was no excuse though for the Rutgers coaching staff being about as talented as a J.V. version of Doc Rivers.

I'm guessing Negro is slowly pulling the curtain closed over Queen's lower block rate and blocks per 40 compared to Ace since we all know SF's should rarely if ever be better at blocks than a center.

[Negrodamus]

Here you guys go:

Paul George: .364 FTr, 22.4 AST%, 91% FT (3/3)
Kevin Durant: .396 FTr, 8.6 AST%, 82% FT (2/3)
Draymond Green: .367 FTr, 24.2 AST%, 72% FT (2/3)
Gordon Hayward: .579 FTr, 12.1 AST%, 83% FT (3/3)
Jimmy Butler: .628 FTr, 13.2 AST%, 78% FT (3/3)
Klay Thompson: .336 FTr, 25.0 AST%, 84% FT (3/3)
Danny Granger: .585 FTr, 17.8 AST%, 76% FT (3/3)

Is Danny Granger far enough back or should I keep going until I find an all star forward who is 0/3 like Ace Bailey?

Every single one of those guys except Kevin Durant was an upperclassman.

For some reason you don't think age matters. Ace will only be 18.9 years old at draft time. Being 2, 3, or 4 years younger than some of these guys on your list is a very important factor you seem to discount.

Let me ask you a question, do you think I'm intentionally leaving off some all star forwards who declared for the draft after their freshman year because I have a vendetta against Ace and I'm pushing some kind of agenda? These are the forwards from the all star list. I also had Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum in the previous list.

I wish Ace had a .500 FTr, 25.0 AST%, and 90% FT so we didn't have to discuss this ad nauseam.

[Black Mage]

Posted this in a thread on the Draft Board, but throwing it here. Nothing really new if you read my ramblings on these threads, but really wanted to hammer home that Ace shares little with NBA All Stars when they were coming into the league.

I mean the people you said hit the mark are nearly all guards (for all three hitting the mark) apart form Tatum. Bailey is an SF/PF. Would be interesting if you included current players who play his position. The FTr and passing rate are typical of high scoring and good passing guards.

I went to the all time all stars wikipedia page, filtered by most recent, and chose all non-C players for the past 4 years until I saw Mike Conley's name and felt the point had been made.

For some reason it's considered cherry picking to choose a distribution stat, a foul generating stat, and FT% (which has historically been a good indicator of future jumpshot shooting in the NBA) when trying to figure out which of these prospects has superstar traits. What current players who play his position are you looking for? Non All Stars?

I mean, ESPN kinda does this every night. Player X is the first player in NBA history to have exactly this randomly chosen stat markers that we decided what they would be so we could have this headline!

[Negrodamus]

I mean the people you said hit the mark are nearly all guards (for all three hitting the mark) apart form Tatum. Bailey is an SF/PF. Would be interesting if you included current players who play his position. The FTr and passing rate are typical of high scoring and good passing guards.

I went to the all time all stars wikipedia page, filtered by most recent, and chose all non-C players for the past 4 years until I saw Mike Conley's name and felt the point had been made.

For some reason it's considered cherry picking to choose a distribution stat, a foul generating stat, and FT% (which has historically been a good indicator of future jumpshot shooting in the NBA) when trying to figure out which of these prospects has superstar traits. What current players who play his position are you looking for? Non All Stars?

I mean, ESPN kinda does this every night. Player X is the first player in NBA history to have exactly this randomly chosen start markers that we decided what they would be so we could have this headline!

Feel free to ignore the consideration of distribution, free throw rate, and FT% of all stars when they were in college as statistics worthy of evaluation for a top 3 pick. I choose to view them as important. We can all choose our own path on this journey!

[Negrodamus]

Also, that statistical grouping was in response to "who would you be interested instead of Ace?" It wasn't an argument against Ace. So I created it as a way of showing my thought process for who I'd consider. I look at a top 3, and really a top 10, pick as a guy you swing for who is a creator for themselves and others while not being a complete zero on defense. Every superstar in the NBA is that way, so we should swing for a superstar when given such a high pick.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

You guys can keep pushing your Anti-Ace agendas. If Philly drafts him, you can expect him to be a C&S wing for the time being. He'll have some time to work on his flaws. I don't see the colossal bust that some of you see. It should be a three man race at this point between Bailey, Edgecombe, and Johnson. Pick your NBA ready traits and the pick your poison. Bailey has the highest upside, Johnson is already a great knockdown shooter, and Edgecombe is the best athlete in this draft and already hitting the marks you want from an analytics perspective.

[Black Mage]

Regardless of stats, I think its clear that Ace's glaring weakness is playmaking. And I think the AST% and FTR match that.

I'm less worried about the free throw percentage as it could've just been a bad year especially since it's been reported that his senior year percentage was 90%.

However, his stats also show a lot of potential on shooting, defense, rebounding, and its clear that he has athleticism and length.

I feel like his likely floor if he doesn't develop playmaking skill would something like LaVine with better defense, Anunoby or Mikal with his ceiling if he did develop playmaking skill being something like Tatum or prime PG.

And if Ace just blindly dribbled into the 2 player secondary wall behind his man to try and force his way through and grift for a foul only to not get calls or turn it over; we'd all be killing him as showing a lack of IQ by driving wildly into double and triple teams rather than pulling up.

Similarly, if he always passed out to the scrubs left open at the arc and they blew shots all year long; we'd be killing him for not trying to take it upon himself to go get a bucket when he knows his teammates can't shoot/score.

Sometimes a team situation just sucks. Even Maxey struggled, especially early, when he found himself in a depleted team situation when Joel, PG and then even McCain went down.

[Arsenal]

Here you guys go:

Paul George: .364 FTr, 22.4 AST%, 91% FT (3/3)
Kevin Durant: .396 FTr, 8.6 AST%, 82% FT (2/3)
Draymond Green: .367 FTr, 24.2 AST%, 72% FT (2/3)
Gordon Hayward: .579 FTr, 12.1 AST%, 83% FT (3/3)
Jimmy Butler: .628 FTr, 13.2 AST%, 78% FT (3/3)
Klay Thompson: .336 FTr, 25.0 AST%, 84% FT (3/3)
Danny Granger: .585 FTr, 17.8 AST%, 76% FT (3/3)

Is Danny Granger far enough back or should I keep going until I find an all star forward who is 0/3 like Ace Bailey?

Every single one of those guys except Kevin Durant was an upperclassman.

For some reason you don't think age matters. Ace will only be 18.9 years old at draft time. Being 2, 3, or 4 years younger than some of these guys on your list is a very important factor you seem to discount.

Let me ask you a question, do you think I'm intentionally leaving off some all star forwards who declared for the draft after their freshman year because I have a vendetta against Ace and I'm pushing some kind of agenda? These are the forwards from the all star list. I also had Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum in the previous list.

I wish Ace had a .500 FTr, 25.0 AST%, and 90% FT so we didn't have to discuss this ad nauseam.

Regardless of your intentions it's an apples to oranges comparison of Bailey at age 18 to Butler at age 21, Granger at age 21, Hayward at age 19, George at age 19, Thompson at age 20, and Green at age 21.

One or two or three years matters a whole lot when you're that young. If Ace came back to college next year and transferred to a stacked team, his advanced stats would improve significantly.

Age matters. Teammates matter.

[Jojothewhale]

The floor of every player each of us want to take at 3 is a 9th Man or worse. That includes my preference. Between this and the Durant comps, we’re losing touch with reasonable expectations.

[Negrodamus]

Lmfao, "my agenda". I hope Ace becomes a superstar wherever he goes. I don't know him personally but I can guarantee he worked incredibly hard to get to this point in his life and deserves whatever he achieves for himself. I'm simply looking at past indicators, comparing to this draft, and giving my evaluations. If that's an "agenda", then there are too many feelings involved in this conversation and I should sit out the Ace discussions.

[Black Mage]

Here you guys go:

Paul George: .364 FTr, 22.4 AST%, 91% FT (3/3)
Kevin Durant: .396 FTr, 8.6 AST%, 82% FT (2/3)
Draymond Green: .367 FTr, 24.2 AST%, 72% FT (2/3)
Gordon Hayward: .579 FTr, 12.1 AST%, 83% FT (3/3)
Jimmy Butler: .628 FTr, 13.2 AST%, 78% FT (3/3)
Klay Thompson: .336 FTr, 25.0 AST%, 84% FT (3/3)
Danny Granger: .585 FTr, 17.8 AST%, 76% FT (3/3)

Is Danny Granger far enough back or should I keep going until I find an all star forward who is 0/3 like Ace Bailey?

To be fair: George, Hayward, Granger all played in weak conferences.

Also, to be fair, you are using stats for several guys from their non-freshman years. Butler and Green weren't even starting as Freshman. Several players wouldn't qualify under your minimum stat requirements if you used freshman stats.

For example, Klay Thompson's FTR was .082! He also avg'd 1.9 assists as a Freshman. OMG Klay is a scrub!

[ProcessDoctor]

Aces career is going to hold so much weight with this fanbase, whether we draft him or not.

[Black Mage]

Here you guys go:

Paul George: .364 FTr, 22.4 AST%, 91% FT (3/3)
Kevin Durant: .396 FTr, 8.6 AST%, 82% FT (2/3)
Draymond Green: .367 FTr, 24.2 AST%, 72% FT (2/3)
Gordon Hayward: .579 FTr, 12.1 AST%, 83% FT (3/3)
Jimmy Butler: .628 FTr, 13.2 AST%, 78% FT (3/3)
Klay Thompson: .336 FTr, 25.0 AST%, 84% FT (3/3)
Danny Granger: .585 FTr, 17.8 AST%, 76% FT (3/3)

Is Danny Granger far enough back or should I keep going until I find an all star forward who is 0/3 like Ace Bailey?

Every single one of those guys except Kevin Durant was an upperclassman.

For some reason you don't think age matters. Ace will only be 18.9 years old at draft time. Being 2, 3, or 4 years younger than some of these guys on your list is a very important factor you seem to discount.

Let me ask you a question, do you think I'm intentionally leaving off some all star forwards who declared for the draft after their freshman year because I have a vendetta against Ace and I'm pushing some kind of agenda? These are the forwards from the all star list. I also had Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum in the previous list.

I wish Ace had a .500 FTr, 25.0 AST%, and 90% FT so we didn't have to discuss this ad nauseam.

I'd bet money that Ace's assist rate jumps up into your desired range if he was playing on Duke like Ingram and Tatum did. Yes, I get that Ace chose Rutger's but it's also just fact that you're going to get more assists when your have a group of players who can shoot and play coherent basketball.

If I surrounded Stockton/Magic/Nash with 4 Ben Simmons' I'm not sure any of them could get more than 4-5 assists a game.

[zaz102]

The floor of every player each of us want to take at 3 is a 9th Man or worse. That includes my preference. Between this and the Durant comps, we’re losing touch with reasonable expectations.

Maybe I shouldn't have used the term floor. I meant if Ace works hard and develops his current skills, he would be like OG or Mikal. We've seen the floor for how low it can really go.

[Negrodamus]

Yea, maybe I should sit this one out. The positive evaluation for Ace is on "vibes" here and each time I provide all star F's (of similar stature) college statistics as a comparison, there is always a caveat as to why those examples don't matter. And, to be clear, I've posted all of them in the past 15 years.

So even if I dip into not quite all stars like Brandon Miller (.329 FTr, 12.9 AST%, 86% FT) or RJ Barrett (.319 FTr, 23.5 AST%, 67% FT), it doesn't matter because they aren't the exact age as Ace (RJ was 19 years old at draft time, Ace will be 2 months short of 19) or they didn't pick a total dog **** program to play for (as if that would be something that would stop a future NBA superstar).

[phifans]

I don't care about all these advanced stats in NCAA ... THose are for role players ... All I care about Ace Bailey is his work ethic and bball IQ cos obviously the potential is there no matter what you try to say.