2024-2025 College Basketball / NBA Draft

[Black Mage]

It was thanks to these boards and our diehard fans and talent evaluators that I ever bothered to try my hand at evaluating players and writing up my own findings (which I posted here to several TLDR good effort bro responses ). I went back and looked at those posts and the year that jumped out at me was the Mikal Bridges year. I nailed the Shai/Mikal/Zhaire and a few other takes.

However, the one I totally whiffed on was Kevin Knox. Concerning, a lot of Knox' weaknesses/question marks that I saw and argued could be polished up or coached up, sound vaguely familiar to those we're talking about with Ace (folks might want to go back and google Knox draft scouting reports). It's made me think I want to go back and rewatch both Knox and Ace to see if there's a similar player hiding there.

If anyone has the same interest as me; I'd welcome their views on this comparison. Gonna try to watch the film for each next weekend and then give some thoughts here.

[Negrodamus]

Every single one of those guys except Kevin Durant was an upperclassman.

For some reason you don't think age matters. Ace will only be 18.9 years old at draft time. Being 2, 3, or 4 years younger than some of these guys on your list is a very important factor you seem to discount.

Let me ask you a question, do you think I'm intentionally leaving off some all star forwards who declared for the draft after their freshman year because I have a vendetta against Ace and I'm pushing some kind of agenda? These are the forwards from the all star list. I also had Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum in the previous list.

I wish Ace had a .500 FTr, 25.0 AST%, and 90% FT so we didn't have to discuss this ad nauseam.

I'd bet money that Ace's assist rate jumps up into your desired range if he was playing on Duke like Ingram and Tatum did. Yes, I get that Ace chose Rutger's but it's also just fact that you're going to get more assists when your have a group of players who can shoot and play coherent basketball.

If I surrounded Stockton/Magic/Nash with 4 Ben Simmons' I'm not sure any of them could get more than 4-5 assists a game.

Ironically, Ben Simmons surrounded himself with one 40% 3FG shooter at LSU and everyone else was 34% or worse and he averaged 5 assists per game at LSU (27 AST%). Tim Quarterman the Dylan Harper to Ben's Ace Bailey. That team was total poop. Still put up obnoxiously good numbers.

[Black Mage]

Let me ask you a question, do you think I'm intentionally leaving off some all star forwards who declared for the draft after their freshman year because I have a vendetta against Ace and I'm pushing some kind of agenda? These are the forwards from the all star list. I also had Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum in the previous list.

I wish Ace had a .500 FTr, 25.0 AST%, and 90% FT so we didn't have to discuss this ad nauseam.

I'd bet money that Ace's assist rate jumps up into your desired range if he was playing on Duke like Ingram and Tatum did. Yes, I get that Ace chose Rutger's but it's also just fact that you're going to get more assists when your have a group of players who can shoot and play coherent basketball.

If I surrounded Stockton/Magic/Nash with 4 Ben Simmons' I'm not sure any of them could get more than 4-5 assists a game.

Ironically, Ben Simmons surrounded himself with one 40% 3FG shooter at LSU and everyone else was 34% or worse and he averaged 5 assists per game at LSU (27 AST%). Tim Quarterman the Dylan Harper to Ben's Ace Bailey. That team was total poop. Still put up obnoxiously good numbers.

Rutger's had one other player that shot 34% or better. The rest of the starters shot below 26%. That's an astronomical difference.

[Negrodamus]

I'd bet money that Ace's assist rate jumps up into your desired range if he was playing on Duke like Ingram and Tatum did. Yes, I get that Ace chose Rutger's but it's also just fact that you're going to get more assists when your have a group of players who can shoot and play coherent basketball.

If I surrounded Stockton/Magic/Nash with 4 Ben Simmons' I'm not sure any of them could get more than 4-5 assists a game.

Ironically, Ben Simmons surrounded himself with one 40% 3FG shooter at LSU and everyone else was 34% or worse and he averaged 5 assists per game at LSU (27 AST%). Tim Quarterman the Dylan Harper to Ben's Ace Bailey. That team was total poop. Still put up obnoxiously good numbers.

Rutger's had one other player that shot 34% or better. The rest of the starters shot below 26%. That's an astronomical difference.

I don't think there's that big of a difference between teams in 3pt shooting. Both teams sucked ass. Ben found ways of getting to the rim and generating fouls/assists.

[Negrodamus]

Last thing I'll say is forget all the stats, Bodner and Kyle Neubeck talked about how they watched almost every minute of every Rutgers game this year and came away feeling like Ace couldn't get by his man which led to difficult jumpers instead of getting to the rim. That's their "eye test". It was on their Friday podcast. Feel free to dismiss their opinions as "agenda" driven, too.

[eyeatoma]

Last thing I'll say is forget all the stats, Bodner and Kyle Neubeck talked about how they watched almost every minute of every Rutgers game this year and came away feeling like Ace couldn't get by his man which led to difficult jumpers instead of getting to the rim. That's their "eye test". It was on their Friday podcast. Feel free to dismiss their opinions as "agenda" driven, too.

And Jonathan Givony, who has spent his entire career evaluating prospects, and founded Draft Express thinks Ace is a can't miss star. I really like Kyle and Derek, but Givony usually knows what he's talking about. He hated Simmons.

[Negrodamus]

Last thing I'll say is forget all the stats, Bodner and Kyle Neubeck talked about how they watched almost every minute of every Rutgers game this year and came away feeling like Ace couldn't get by his man which led to difficult jumpers instead of getting to the rim. That's their "eye test". It was on their Friday podcast. Feel free to dismiss their opinions as "agenda" driven, too.

And Jonathan Givony, who has spent his entire career evaluating prospects, and founded Draft Express thinks Ace is a can't miss star. I really like Kyle and Derek, but Givony usually knows what he's talking about. He hated Simmons.

I also hated Simmons and preferred Ingram over Ben (and Tatum/Fox/Mitchell over Fultz, SGA over Bridges/almost everyone in that draft) and I'm some dip **** posting on RealGM.

[76ciology]

I don't care about all these advanced stats in NCAA ... THose are for role players ... All I care about Ace Bailey is his work ethic and bball IQ cos obviously the potential is there no matter what you try to say.

He doesn’t seem to be good on both work ethic and IQ.

I’d be alarmed if he already have both good work ethic and good basketball IQ and yet he is still this bad.

[eyeatoma]

Last thing I'll say is forget all the stats, Bodner and Kyle Neubeck talked about how they watched almost every minute of every Rutgers game this year and came away feeling like Ace couldn't get by his man which led to difficult jumpers instead of getting to the rim. That's their "eye test". It was on their Friday podcast. Feel free to dismiss their opinions as "agenda" driven, too.

And Jonathan Givony, who has spent his entire career evaluating prospects, and founded Draft Express thinks Ace is a can't miss star. I really like Kyle and Derek, but Givony usually knows what he's talking about. He hated Simmons.

I also hated Simmons and preferred Ingram over Ben (and Tatum/Fox/Mitchell over Fultz, SGA over Bridges/almost everyone in that draft) and I'm some dip **** posting on RealGM.

So what would you have us do with the pick if we're not taking Ace?

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[Negrodamus]

And Jonathan Givony, who has spent his entire career evaluating prospects, and founded Draft Express thinks Ace is a can't miss star. I really like Kyle and Derek, but Givony usually knows what he's talking about. He hated Simmons.

I also hated Simmons and preferred Ingram over Ben (and Tatum/Fox/Mitchell over Fultz, SGA over Bridges/almost everyone in that draft) and I'm some dip **** posting on RealGM.

So what would you have us do with the pick if we're not taking Ace?

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Trade down, get future picks since we're draft poor in coming years. I discussed players I'd be interested in in the Ace Bailey thread on the draft board.

Kasparas at 6ish would make sense to me: a 6'6 PG who generates fouls, assists, high FG at the rim, has a great form which suggests upside as a shooter. And he's turning 19 in 3 days, so he's most importantly YOUNG!!!!!!!

[76ciology]

I don’t think any of the players we’re considering at No. 3 will be ready to contribute meaningful playoff minutes. Just look at the Timberwolves, Leonard Miller, Terrence Shannon, and Rob Dillingham were all glued to the bench. The game’s evolving, and based on recent trends, the only rookie who’s really played a role deep in the playoffs is Dereck Lively, and that’s because his job is simple.. catch lobs, protect the rim, rebound.

Ideally, I’d like us to trade down or at least seriously explore it. We could target a high upside prospect while also picking up another 1st rounder to draft someone more NBA ready who can help immediately. A combo like Tre Johnson and Rasheer Fleming or Cedric Coward, both Rasheer and Cedric would likely give you more value than Ace in the next 2-3 seasons, would be good balancing long-term potential with short term value, and giving us more flexibility whether we stay competitive or pivot to a rebuild.

[Negrodamus]

I don’t think any of the players we’re considering at No. 3 will be ready to contribute meaningful playoff minutes. Just look at the Timberwolves, Leonard Miller, Terrence Shannon, and Rob Dillingham were all glued to the bench. The game’s evolving, and based on recent trends, the only rookie who’s really played a role deep in the playoffs is Dereck Lively, and that’s because his job is simple.. catch lobs, protect the rim, rebound.

Ideally, I’d like us to trade down or at least seriously explore it. We could target a high upside prospect while also picking up another 1st rounder to draft someone more NBA ready who can help immediately. A combo like Tre Johnson and Rasheer Fleming or Cedric Coward, both Rasheer and Cedric would likely give you more value than Ace in the next 2-3 seasons, would be good balancing long-term potential with short term value, and giving us more flexibility whether we stay competitive or pivot to a rebuild.

I'd also, unsurprisingly, take Derik Queen since he would be a great role player immediately next year. Great rebounder last year who would be a nice dual big option and small ball C. But I'll stop bringing him up here since he's "fat" and that's grounds of instant dismissal.

I know you're a Maluach guy and I'll say this, I'd be more interested in trading back and taking him than drafting Ace at 3. And I've been one of your biggest debate partners on this subject.

[Black Mage]

Last thing I'll say is forget all the stats, Bodner and Kyle Neubeck talked about how they watched almost every minute of every Rutgers game this year and came away feeling like Ace couldn't get by his man which led to difficult jumpers instead of getting to the rim. That's their "eye test". It was on their Friday podcast. Feel free to dismiss their opinions as "agenda" driven, too.

I love both Kyle and Derek, getting that out of the way first. Derek's reasoning is absolutely the worst kind to have. He opens talking about wanting to "maximize this contention window" IF Joel is healthy. He argues in his view Ace is 3 yrs away from reaching his potential, and won't give you anything this yr if Joel is healthy and you make a playoff run. You do not waste a 3rd overall pick on a lower upside guy b/c you're worried the higher upside guy is on a different timeline. News flash, even Tim Duncan, one of the all-time greatest players and an absolute stud of a rookie, couldn't get the Spurs out of the 2nd round. That was while playing with Robinson who finished in the MVP voting, DPOY voting and All-NBA voting, in Duncan's rookie year.

The Celtics took Brown (a complete project) and Tatum in back to back years b/c they fit holes on the roster and could get immediate playing time to develop while playing next to established stars who could take the pressure off them. Brown played 17 mins and scored 6.6 pts, 2.8 rbs and .8 assists and the Celtics still made the Eastern Conf Finals. By the way, the year before Brown the Celtics got bounced in the 1st rnd. Ace can't match those averages, seriously?

In Tatum's rookie year he played 30 mins a game and averaged 13.9 pts, 5 rbs and 1.6 asts. His ftr was .309; assist rate was 8%. Do we really think Ace can't avg 5 boards and 1.6 assists per game as a rookie? Really? Celtics went to the East Conf Finals that year.

There was no way Celtics thought Brown or Tatum were going to be "playoff" contributors. They took best available that fit their roster makeup and then allowed those two guys to play through their lumps and bumps to get crucial experience. That is exactly how the Heat do it as well. So Bodner's concern of who he projects could help more right now is a crap shoot and an awful mentality for determining who you draft.

Second, Joel is unlikely to even be healthy enough. So if Ace needs 3 yrs as Bodner thinks, that means he's coming into his full powers at same time as McCain and Grimes while Maxey is still in his prime. Shai is about to hit 27; Maxey would be 26 turning 27 as the team enters that 3rd year.

Kyle's view is he's firmly in the "trade down" which I also don't agree with. Even if the next "tier" is 8 guys, this isn't fantasy sports, your job is to evaluate and find the best player. In the Fultz year, Ainge made his decision and the only reason he traded down was b/c he KNEW which way the first two teams would draft and his guy would be there. Imagine tho if BC had a functional brain-cell and noticed Fultz blew every deep shot at the walkthrough and pivoted to Tatum? Think Ainge would still like his draft? Let's say Morey really likes Kon; I'll trade down he thinks and Kon will be sitting there. Only to find out Kon goes bewtween the picks you dropped behind. Pick your guy and don't risk losing out on him just to get a modest return (now if you get an idiot team that offers you the universe yeah trade down).

So respect both guys immensely, but that short segment you're talking about gave 2 different reasons both of which I think are flawed ways to think about how to use this pick.

[eyeatoma]

I also hated Simmons and preferred Ingram over Ben (and Tatum/Fox/Mitchell over Fultz, SGA over Bridges/almost everyone in that draft) and I'm some dip **** posting on RealGM.

So what would you have us do with the pick if we're not taking Ace?

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Trade down, get future picks since we're draft poor in coming years. I discussed players I'd be interested in in the Ace Bailey thread on the draft board.

Kasparas at 6ish would make sense to me: a 6'6 PG who generates fouls, assists, high FG at the rim, has a great form which suggests upside as a shooter. And he's turning 19 in 3 days, so he's most importantly YOUNG!!!!!!!

I think with a #3 pick you swing for the fences though. We're not going to have this chance to pick this high for the next few years.

[Negrodamus]

Last thing I'll say is forget all the stats, Bodner and Kyle Neubeck talked about how they watched almost every minute of every Rutgers game this year and came away feeling like Ace couldn't get by his man which led to difficult jumpers instead of getting to the rim. That's their "eye test". It was on their Friday podcast. Feel free to dismiss their opinions as "agenda" driven, too.

I love both Kyle and Derek, getting that out of the way first. Derek's reasoning is absolutely the worst kind to have. He opens talking about wanting to "maximize this contention window" IF Joel is healthy. He argues in his view Ace is 3 yrs away from reaching his potential, and won't give you anything this yr if Joel is healthy and you make a playoff run. You do not waste a 3rd overall pick on a lower upside guy b/c you're worried the higher upside guy is on a different timeline. News flash, even Tim Duncan, one of the all-time greatest players and an absolute stud of a rookie, couldn't get the Spurs out of the 2nd round. That was while playing with Robinson who finished in the MVP voting, DPOY voting and All-NBA voting, in Duncan's rookie year.

The Celtics took Brown (a complete project) and Tatum in back to back years b/c they fit holes on the roster and could get immediate playing time to develop while playing next to established stars who could take the pressure off them. Brown played 17 mins and scored 6.6 pts, 2.8 rbs and .8 assists and the Celtics still made the Eastern Conf Finals. By the way, the year before Brown the Celtics got bounced in the 1st rnd. Ace can't match those averages, seriously?

In Tatum's rookie year he played 30 mins a game and averaged 13.9 pts, 5 rbs and 1.6 asts. His ftr was .309; assist rate was 8%. Do we really think Ace can't avg 5 boards and 1.6 assists per game as a rookie? Really? Celtics went to the East Conf Finals that year.

There was no way Celtics thought Brown or Tatum were going to be "playoff" contributors. They took best available that fit their roster makeup and then allowed those two guys to play through their lumps and bumps to get crucial experience. That is exactly how the Heat do it as well. So Bodner's concern of who he projects could help more right now is a crap shoot and an awful mentality for determining who you draft.

Second, Joel is unlikely to even be healthy enough. So if Ace needs 3 yrs as Bodner thinks, that means he's coming into his full powers at same time as McCain and Grimes while Maxey is still in his prime. Shai is about to hit 27; Maxey would be 26 turning 27 as the team enters that 3rd year.

Kyle's view is he's firmly in the "trade down" which I also don't agree with. Even if the next "tier" is 8 guys, this isn't fantasy sports, your job is to evaluate and find the best player. In the Fultz year, Ainge made his decision and the only reason he traded down was b/c he KNEW which way the first two teams would draft and his guy would be there. Imagine tho if BC had a functional brain-cell and noticed Fultz blew every deep shot at the walkthrough and pivoted to Tatum? Think Ainge would still like his draft? Let's say Morey really likes Kon; I'll trade down he thinks and Kon will be sitting there. Only to find out Kon goes bewtween the picks you dropped behind. Pick your guy and don't risk losing out on him just to get a modest return (now if you get an idiot team that offers you the universe yeah trade down).

So respect both guys immensely, but that short segment you're talking about gave 2 different reasons both of which I think are flawed ways to think about how to use this pick.

Yea, but what about the thing we’re talking about: their evaluation of Ace?

[Negrodamus]

So what would you have us do with the pick if we're not taking Ace?

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Trade down, get future picks since we're draft poor in coming years. I discussed players I'd be interested in in the Ace Bailey thread on the draft board.

Kasparas at 6ish would make sense to me: a 6'6 PG who generates fouls, assists, high FG at the rim, has a great form which suggests upside as a shooter. And he's turning 19 in 3 days, so he's most importantly YOUNG!!!!!!!

I think with a #3 pick you swing for the fences though. We're not going to have this chance to pick this high for the next few years.

My problem when discussing this is that I don’t know what “swinging for the fences” means in this context. Are we saying take the youngest guy who has elite length/height because we believe he will fill major holes eventually (handling, creating, foul generating, etc)? From what I’ve seen over the years, that never works. So that’s not my interpretation of “swinging for the fences”.

I’m looking at the other young guys who have shown the star attributes and have intriguing size. I’m willing to ignore a few of their flaws and hope they become adequate at those deficiencies. Queen and Kasparas have those attributes and can be had in a trade down.

[76ciology]

For me, the key difference between Tatum and Fultz as prospects came down to their free throw percentages.

Tatum shot an elite 85% from the line, while Fultz was at just 65%.

If more weight had been placed on FT% as a predictive indicator of shooting potential, especially from 3, Tatum likely would’ve been seen as the better long-term shooter. That alone could’ve flipped their draft projections, even before Fultz’s shoulder issues derailed his development.

I dont think Tatum would be this popular if he is not a very good 3pt shooter and plays for the Washington Wizards.

[Mik317]

....are we even sure Ace is the swing for the fences guy lol. I don't see the KD/PG/T-Mac ceiling. I see the Rashard Lewis or better defending MPJ. Which is nice...but the most likely outcome is Kaminga or better Oubre....with the basement being Kevin Knox and Cam Reddish.

The real galaxy brain reach is Noa ...which I wouldn't do but still.

Maybe I am first step pilled but that really is my hang up atm. You have to be an elite insane shooter and the stats don't say Ace is. And a decade of relying on that from a bigger and better player and the results being what they are..signing up for more of that.....I can't get jiggy with that **** lol.

[Mik317]

For me, the key difference between Tatum and Fultz as prospects came down to their free throw percentages.

Tatum shot an elite 85% from the line, while Fultz was at just 65%.

If more weight had been placed on FT% as a predictive indicator of shooting potential, especially from 3, Tatum likely would’ve been seen as the better long-term shooter. That alone could’ve flipped their draft projections, even before Fultz’s shoulder issues derailed his development.

I dont think Tatum would be this popular if he is not a very good 3pt shooter and plays for the Washington Wizards.

Tatum going to Boston and being on a good team forced him to get rid of the chaff from his game quickly.

thats the hope for whoever we pick here.

[the_process]

Last thing I'll say is forget all the stats, Bodner and Kyle Neubeck talked about how they watched almost every minute of every Rutgers game this year and came away feeling like Ace couldn't get by his man which led to difficult jumpers instead of getting to the rim. That's their "eye test". It was on their Friday podcast. Feel free to dismiss their opinions as "agenda" driven, too.

And Jonathan Givony, who has spent his entire career evaluating prospects, and founded Draft Express thinks Ace is a can't miss star. I really like Kyle and Derek, but Givony usually knows what he's talking about. He hated Simmons.

Giving is in the "big time" now. Meaning pushing certain players to curry agent favor for access is the name of the game, just like Shams.