2025 Draft prospects - thread 2

[drosestruts]

big game for Ben Saraf in the playoffs over the weekend - 20 points and 7 assists

Most of his scoring comes at the line, his scoring efficiency leaves a lot to be desired - you do wonder what he'd look like playing against his peers if he went to college rather than playing against adults in professional leagues.

handles, change of pace, passing all look good. I feel like he can get where he wants, can create separation on the perimeter off the dribble - but big questions about his ability to finish and score efficiently. None of which will get easier when moving to the NBA.

U18 Euro championships he posted 28, 5, and 5 (along with 4 steals a game) on 45/36/76 shooting splits

pros:
handles
change of pace
passing
pesky defender

cons:
efficiency
finishing
meh athleticism
size (6'5")

Watch on YouTube

[Chi town]

I like Saraf if we got a later pick. He’s Ginobili lite. Plays hard and competes. If his 3 ball develops he could be a solid scorer on all 3 levels

[rosenthall]

...


It's really hard to game those numbers. His floor seems like a Morris twin level player, and upside maybe in a Julius Randle / Zach Randolph mode if he's able to break through.

Oof, CMB upside Julius Randle or Z Bo? That's awfully generous. I think those upside comps more closely describe Queen. IMO, CMB's absolute maximum offensive ceiling is Draymond Green-- an occasional 3, mainly a passer, finish around rim type player.

As a best case scenario I don't see why the comps don't work. Stylistically he has a lot in common with both. CMB was better offensively than either of them as a freshman too.

[Red Larrivee]

...


It's really hard to game those numbers. His floor seems like a Morris twin level player, and upside maybe in a Julius Randle / Zach Randolph mode if he's able to break through.

Oof, CMB upside Julius Randle or Z Bo? That's awfully generous. I think those upside comps more closely describe Queen. IMO, CMB's absolute maximum offensive ceiling is Draymond Green-- an occasional 3, mainly a passer, finish around rim type player.

For some reason it seems some people think that because CMB is a poor shooter, they believe he's a non-threat on offense or at best limited.

I don't think him and Draymond have a ton in common offensively. CMB is a good shot creator and a very competent playmaker. Shot creator, playmaker and play finisher. He was the primary and secondary reason a garbage South Carolina team had a chance in a bloodbath SEC.

If he ever develops an even decent jump shot, you're talking a very high level and versatile two-way forward.

[Chi town]

...


It's really hard to game those numbers. His floor seems like a Morris twin level player, and upside maybe in a Julius Randle / Zach Randolph mode if he's able to break through.

Oof, CMB upside Julius Randle or Z Bo? That's awfully generous. I think those upside comps more closely describe Queen. IMO, CMB's absolute maximum offensive ceiling is Draymond Green-- an occasional 3, mainly a passer, finish around rim type player.

For some reason it seems some people think that because CMB is a poor shooter, they believe he's a non-threat on offense or at best limited.

I don't think him and Draymond have a ton in common offensively. CMB is a good shot creator and a very competent playmaker. Shot creator, playmaker and play finisher. He was the primary and secondary reason a garbage South Carolina team had a chance in a bloodbath SEC.

If he ever develops an even decent jump shot, you're talking a very high level and versatile two-way forward.

Dude can score and creat his own shot but in the NBA they will play off him and he won’t be able to bully ball against team defense and athleticism.

If he can’t shoot I don’t see how he will be a threat to score. Maybe in PNR? Also think NBA length will hurt his efficiency in the paint.

Like you said though… if he does get an average shot he’d be a very impactful player.

[Red Larrivee]

Dude can score and creat his own shot but in the NBA they will play off him and he won’t be able to bully ball against team defense and athleticism.

If he can’t shoot I don’t see how he will be a threat to score. Maybe in PNR? Also think NBA length will hurt his efficiency in the paint.

He's 6'8, 240 with a 7'1 wingspan. I'm not sure why the concern is that he can't handle NBA length and size.

He's a physical player, but he wasn't getting by on bully ball in college. He was facing up and taking players off the dribble and finishing. Yes, the jump shot will open his game up further, but he can absolutely score and be a threat without it. Let's not act like he's Bismack Biyombo on offense because he isn't a good shooter.

[Rose2Boozer]

2025 NBA First Round Mock

Mavs: Cooper Flagg
Spurs: Dylan Harper
Sixers: Ace Bailey
Hornets: Tre Johnson
Jazz: VJ Edgecombe
Wizards: Derik Queen
Pelicans: Kon Knueppel
Nets: Jeremiah Fears
Raptors: Khaman Maluach
Rockets: Kasparas Jakucionis
Blazers: Cedric Coward
Bulls: Thomas Sorber
Hawks: Rasheer Fleming
Spurs: Collin Murray-Boyles
Thunder: Maxime Raynaud
Magic: Egor Demin
Wolves: Carter Bryant
Wizards: Jase Richardson
Nets: Asa Newell
Heat: Noa Essengue
Jazz: Liam McNeeley
Hawks: Nique Clifford
Pacers: Danny Wolf
Thunder: Will Riley
Magic: Ben Saraf
Nets: Joan Beringer
Nets: Walter Clayton Jr.
Celtics: Adou Thiero
Suns: Hansen Yang
Clippers: Nolan Traore

[kulaz3000]

...


It's really hard to game those numbers. His floor seems like a Morris twin level player, and upside maybe in a Julius Randle / Zach Randolph mode if he's able to break through.

Oof, CMB upside Julius Randle or Z Bo? That's awfully generous. I think those upside comps more closely describe Queen. IMO, CMB's absolute maximum offensive ceiling is Draymond Green-- an occasional 3, mainly a passer, finish around rim type player.

For some reason it seems some people think that because CMB is a poor shooter, they believe he's a non-threat on offense or at best limited.

I don't think him and Draymond have a ton in common offensively. CMB is a good shot creator and a very competent playmaker. Shot creator, playmaker and play finisher. He was the primary and secondary reason a garbage South Carolina team had a chance in a bloodbath SEC.

If he ever develops an even decent jump shot, you're talking a very high level and versatile two-way forward.

Agreed. He may never be an elite defensive player that Draymond is/was, but he will be a plus defender, but offensively he has a lot more tools than Draymond - he is a capable scorer, can score on drives, and is pretty crafty. Shot needs a little work though. As you mentioned, he is a very smart player, and can make the right reads and passes.

As I've said in the other thread, a lot of teams are going to regret passing up on him, and though in my opinion, he projects to be a really good role player, a connective type of role player at that, someone who could make a similar type of impact like Caruso as a role player which at number 12 wouldn't be a terrible option.

That said, I think the Bulls will opt to take a risk on a higher upside player though, but I definitely wouldn't be mad if we selected CMB, because he is a player who is going to make the right plays, and won't demand the ball or need the ball to make an impact on the floor. I'd prefer him, over Patrick any day of the week, and our team would immediately improve just by replacing Patrick with CMB at the power forward spot. And I could totally see a lineup with CMB and Matas, where they can switch between SF and PF demanding on the matchups.

[ThisGuyFawkes]

I'm still an Essengue guy if he's there. CMB would also intrigue me, as we'll need someone to defend the heavier guys that Matas can't deal with.

Based on who's "probably" going to be available, my list would look something like:

Essengue
CMB
Demin

My main interest in Essengue is the fact that he gets the line at an amazing rate in a league full of men. He doesn't shy away from contact. With his size, athleticism, and fearlessness, he could become something like Giannis (if he can add 20 lb of muscle). With the #12 pick, I'll take a swing at a 5% chance of that happening.

[nomorezorro]

essengue to me is basically a rawer matas with a more concrete single skill (foul drawing). lots of question marks, but also not a lot of definite "he can't do that" weaknesses in his game.

i know doug posted a lot about how matas's makeup gave him a lot of different plausible paths to becoming a useful nba player - he could become a good shooter, or he could develop his handle and use his athleticism to become someone who could effectively attack off the bounce, or he could become a plus defender, etc. similar thing going on with essengue — i might be more skeptical of his handle and shooting, but also as referenced above, i feel better about his ability to get to the line than i did about any one aspect of matas's game, so that kind of balances out.

let him start out by feasting in transition and picking some opportunistic cutting/rolling/driving opportunities, and give him the space to feel out where else his strengths will lie in the nba. i'd be all over him at 12 if he's there

[arusinov]

big game for Ben Saraf in the playoffs over the weekend - 20 points and 7 assists

Most of his scoring comes at the line, his scoring efficiency leaves a lot to be desired - you do wonder what he'd look like playing against his peers if he went to college rather than playing against adults in professional leagues.

handles, change of pace, passing all look good. I feel like he can get where he wants, can create separation on the perimeter off the dribble - but big questions about his ability to finish and score efficiently. None of which will get easier when moving to the NBA.

U18 Euro championships he posted 28, 5, and 5 (along with 4 steals a game) on 45/36/76 shooting splits

pros:
handles
change of pace
passing
pesky defender

cons:
efficiency
finishing
meh athleticism
size (6'5")

Watch on YouTube

How being 6'5+" is cons for PG ?

Saraf's efficiency (53.8% TS%) is actually rather good for a guard which started season in good pro-league as 18 y/o - it's not like he had 47.9 as LaMelo in Australia, not even 51.2 like Traore this year. Saraf is more or less the best overall player and the leader of Ulm in majority of important games, and Ulm this season is really good team (it really wasn't in Killian Hayes' season there for example) - 50% W/L (missed playoff in last round of season) in EuroCup, finished regular season 2nd in German BBL. Teenager playing such important role for good team in Europe basically never happens (not counting Luka of cause).

And mentioning that he was 28 ppg in Euro 18 - it should be said that noone scored 28 ppg in Euro 18 championship (annually tournaments) for over 25 years (scoring leader in 1998 had same 28.1 as Saraf in 2024), and no one scored more than Saraf's 28.1 for 40+ years.



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[2weekswithpay]

If CMB has to play center, which is a possibility, there's a chance that his scoring abilities don't translate. TJD is similar in size to CMB, and this season he couldn't finish at the rim. CMB is only effective driving and finishing with his left hand. Teams can easily scout and adjust to something like this, as we've seen with Randle, who also had issues finishing at the rim in his career.

[kodo]

I think CMB's profile is different than Michigan Draymond who was actually considered a good shooter in college, he was 39% from 3 and it wasn't on negligible volume. His passing ability was already apparent, I think he had a couple of triple doubles already.

CMB is more of a traditional PF, I think he has more similarities with Paul Millsap who didn't shoot any 3s at Louisiana and was an elite defender.
And CMB is younger than either guy as a soph.

[drosestruts]

big game for Ben Saraf in the playoffs over the weekend - 20 points and 7 assists

Most of his scoring comes at the line, his scoring efficiency leaves a lot to be desired - you do wonder what he'd look like playing against his peers if he went to college rather than playing against adults in professional leagues.

handles, change of pace, passing all look good. I feel like he can get where he wants, can create separation on the perimeter off the dribble - but big questions about his ability to finish and score efficiently. None of which will get easier when moving to the NBA.

U18 Euro championships he posted 28, 5, and 5 (along with 4 steals a game) on 45/36/76 shooting splits

pros:
handles
change of pace
passing
pesky defender

cons:
efficiency
finishing
meh athleticism
size (6'5")

Watch on YouTube

How being 6'5+" is cons for PG ?

Saraf's efficiency (53.8% TS%) is actually rather good for a guard which started season in good pro-league as 18 y/o - it's not like he had 47.9 as LaMelo in Australia, not even 51.2 like Traore this year. Saraf is more or less the best overall player and the leader of Ulm in majority of important games, and Ulm this season is really good team (it really wasn't in Killian Hayes' season there for example) - 50% W/L (missed playoff in last round of season) in EuroCup, finished regular season 2nd in German BBL. Teenager playing such important role for good team in Europe basically never happens (not counting Luka of cause).

And mentioning that he was 28 ppg in Euro 18 - it should be said that noone scored 28 ppg in Euro 18 championship (annually tournaments) for over 25 years (scoring leader in 1998 had same 28.1 as Saraf in 2024), and no one scored more than Saraf's 28.1 for 40+ years.



\\

There's things I like about Saraf for sure.

Just because other players have worse effeciency, doesn't make his good in my eyes - but I do recognize there's context here. He's not being guarded for a college kid, he's being guarded by adult professional athletes.

That's what I do think it's interesting to look at things like the U18 tournament - we judge college kids based on their performance against their peers. If we do so for Saraf, and look at things like u18 - all of a sudden you could be feeling like this kid should be a top-5 pick

[2weekswithpay]

Read on Twitter

[drosestruts]

If I magically became the GM of every lottery team in the NBA - this is how as of today, the draft would go:

Dallas - Cooper Flagg
Spurs - Dylan Harper
76ers - Kon Knueppel
Hornets - Tre Johnson
Jazz - Ace Bailey
Wizards - Kasparas Jakucionis
Pelicasn - VJ Edgecombe
Nets - Jeremiah Fears
Raptors - Khaman Maluach
Rockets - Carter Bryant
Blazers - Egor Demin
Bulls - Ben Saraf
Hawks - Derik Queen
Spurs - Rasheer Fleming

[Red Larrivee]

If CMB has to play center, which is a possibility, there's a chance that his scoring abilities don't translate. TJD is similar in size to CMB, and this season he couldn't finish at the rim. CMB is only effective driving and finishing with his left hand. Teams can easily scout and adjust to something like this, as we've seen with Randle, who also had issues finishing at the rim in his career.

TJD also just isn't as talented offensively or as good as CMB. That's the bulk of it.

I don't think there's any meaningful possibility of CMB playing center outside of occasional small ball. He's without a doubt a 4.

[MrSparkle]

I’ve liked Saraf too. Tall(ish) passing wizards are a rare spec. This draft is reminding me of 2020; we had LaMelo, Hali, Killian, Deni. We skipped them all. One was a huge bust (it happens), 2 are franchise players, 1 is now an emerging fringe star.

Lower ceilings due to 3P%, but Denim, Saraf need consideration. They won’t be fully ready for 3-5y anyway, so you don’t skip them because of Giddey. They will play off the bench. Or if they surprise and contribute immediately, you find a way to get good players minutes together. Tall playmakers are special, and this draft has a lot. Kasparas, Harper, Wolf; Queen can dish too, to a lesser extent.

I think it’d be a big mistake going for a safe 3D wing without handles. There’s a bust rate with playmakers, but that’s where the highest reward is, short of a well-rounded superstar prospect like Flagg, or a super triple-threat scorer.

[CROBulls]

Read on Twitter

I guess he did not get late lottery promise. It makes sense then to stay at college. Guy is already 22. GMs dont like to pick older prospects till early 20's at best

[Chi town]

If CMB has to play center, which is a possibility, there's a chance that his scoring abilities don't translate. TJD is similar in size to CMB, and this season he couldn't finish at the rim. CMB is only effective driving and finishing with his left hand. Teams can easily scout and adjust to something like this, as we've seen with Randle, who also had issues finishing at the rim in his career.

TJD also just isn't as talented offensively or as good as CMB. That's the bulk of it.

I don't think there's any meaningful possibility of CMB playing center outside of occasional small ball. He's without a doubt a 4.

Billy would have him at the 5 probably at least half his mins.

If he can’t play the 5 he greatly limits your lineup. You would have to play him with a 5 that can shoot 3s and space the floor. This is the main reason I don’t want him. You can’t play him with Giddey due to spacing.

If he could shoot he’d be top 5. His shot is Dalen Terry broken and it took him 3 years to become meh.