Official Scottie All Star Barnes Thread 9

[tsherkin]

Players who averaged 7+ rebounds, 6+ assists, 1+ block, 1+ steal in the NBA last season:

Wemby
Scottie



Scottie was probably a bit overrated after his rookie season but it's completely gone the other way and he's become underrated.

I don't think partitioning the league by raw per-game averages does anyone any serious favors, to be honest.

Since and including 99-00, with players playing 40+ games, we've seen 5 guys manage those specific averages. I don't think anyone sane is ready to compare him to Lebron, KG, or Giannis. And he isn't as good a defender as Draymond yet, though that's a lot more attainable.

It's impressive stuff, but it's important to look at the assist production with SOME nod to context.

[Tripod]

Do you have a choice? You don't get to see players play hundreds of games in high pressure situations to get an entirely accurate gauge for how they perform under those conditions before you draft them or give them a Max Contract.

With the draft? No, but like I said, that's a large part of why the draft is considerably more volatile than it was in decades past. The sample is horridly insufficient.

Bro...scottie has never won anything.

Take a gander at Fred's real plus/minus. Second season to his sixth season. He was a beast of winning basketball. The bench mob was building 10 point leads on a regular basis.

Go even look at Fred's real plus minus in Houston.

His O-EPM is fairly underwhelming until his 4th season. Likewise basically all of his other measures. His shot was useful, and he's been a smart playmaker basically his whole career; non-elite, but still sensible. He's a good player; not one to wildly overvalue, though.

Oh yah...where is Fred in career real plus minus?

We're talking about winning basketball right? Real plus minus is a pretty good stat. Where is Fred career wise?

This isn't a FVV thread

[OakleyDokely]

Scottie's one of the few guys in the league defensively who has the capabilities to defend 1 through 5 like OG can, which is a very unique quality.

This past season:

Scottie:
% guarding Gs (34.9%): Opponents had a 52.5 TS%
% guarding Fs (49.6%): Opponents had a 51.5 TS%
% guarding Cs (15.5%): Opponents had a 58.1 TS%
Overall: Opponents had a 52.8 TS%

OG:
% guarding Gs (55.6%): Opponents had a 53.6 TS%
% guarding Fs (35.2%): Opponents had a 46.1 TS%
% guarding Cs (9.1%): Opponents had a 56.7 TS%
Overall: Opponents had a 52.0 TS%


Scottie was one of the best all-around defenders in the league last year but it sorta got lost in the shuffle.

[TakeYourHeart]

We need some new Raptors news because we are regurgitating the same info every few weeks...lol

We need some footage of Scottie doing drills with his highschool trainer.

Don't look at his IG story from yesterday, he's back with that same trainer in the gym, along with his highschool buddies.

That is actually disastrous if he has the same trainer from high school for the 5th straight year, my dude is grinding for xp in the tutorial area.

[OakleyDokely]

Players who averaged 7+ rebounds, 6+ assists, 1+ block, 1+ steal in the NBA last season:

Wemby
Scottie



Scottie was probably a bit overrated after his rookie season but it's completely gone the other way and he's become underrated.

I don't think partitioning the league by raw per-game averages does anyone any serious favors, to be honest.

Since and including 99-00, with players playing 40+ games, we've seen 5 guys manage those specific averages. I don't think anyone sane is ready to compare him to Lebron, KG, or Giannis. And he isn't as good a defender as Draymond yet, though that's a lot more attainable.

It's impressive stuff, but it's important to look at the assist production with SOME nod to context.

It's not about comparing him to hall of famers, it's about stating the obvious, not many players have the diversified skillset to fill the stat sheet like Scottie can.

[tsherkin]

Scottie's one of the few guys in the league defensively who has the capabilities to defend 1 through 5 like OG can, which is a very unique quality.

That is certainly true; his defensive potential is the area where he shines, and it's the part of his game which is most exciting going forward. I am very much ready to put discussions of his scoring aside this year if we can get him back to a more reasonable volume and possession selection, and to just focus on having him as a defensive keystone who can also move the ball well.

[tsherkin]

It's not about comparing him to hall of famers, it's about stating the obvious, not many players have the diversified skillset to fill the stat sheet like Scottie can.

Right, but granularly looking at per-game averages does only so much. If I wanted to see who averaged more than 10.75 ppg and 5 farts on a Tuesday in March, that doesn't tell me a lot of information.

Scottie's passing is good, but that particular assist output means only so much for a guy who is receiving reams and reams of possessions AND doesn't like to shoot, is what I was saying. He IS a good passer, but that statline is a bit arbitrary and lacks a lot of useful information. Almost no one has put up that specific statline, but that says more about the extremely specific nature of said line instead of the value it evinces.

[OakleyDokely]

It's not about comparing him to hall of famers, it's about stating the obvious, not many players have the diversified skillset to fill the stat sheet like Scottie can.

Right, but granularly looking at per-game averages does only so much. If I wanted to see who averaged more than 10.75 ppg and 5 farts on a Tuesday in March, that doesn't tell me a lot of information.

Scottie's passing is good, but that particular assist output means only so much for a guy who is receiving reams and reams of possessions AND doesn't like to shoot, is what I was saying. He IS a good passer, but that statline is a bit arbitrary and lacks a lot of useful information. Almost no one has put up that specific statline, but that says more about the extremely specific nature of said line instead of the value it evinces.

Put together any list you want, with any criteria you want involving the key counting stats and Barnes' name will be most likely be on it, with a select few other individuals.

His minutes and usage aren't abnormally high either. He played 32 minutes and had a 27 USG last year.

[tsherkin]

Put together any list you want, with any criteria you want involving the key counting stats and Barnes' name will be most likely be on it, with a select few other individuals.

Sure. But it all means the same thing: he's a good defender and rebounder, a solid passer, and has been given the keys to control the play. The passing should come down noticeably this year. The defense and rebounding should still be strong.

[OakleyDokely]

Put together any list you want, with any criteria you want involving the key counting stats and Barnes' name will be most likely be on it, with a select few other individuals.

Sure. But it all means the same thing: he's a good defender and rebounder, a solid passer, and has been given the keys to control the play. The passing should come down noticeably this year. The defense and rebounding should still be strong.

I think the passing increases, or at least is comparable with a play finisher like Ingram in the lineup.

[tsherkin]

I think the passing increases, or at least is comparable with a play finisher like Ingram in the lineup.

I guess it depends on how we use him.

Ingram is at least as good a playmaker, plus we'll have Quick and RJ, and Shead off the bench. There isn't a lot of need to ram playmaking possessions to Scottie, and a lot of incentive to give them to BI instead because of how dramatically superior he is as a scoring weapon.

[OakleyDokely]

I think the passing increases, or at least is comparable with a play finisher like Ingram in the lineup.

I guess it depends on how we use him.

Ingram is at least as good a playmaker, plus we'll have Quick and RJ, and Shead off the bench. There isn't a lot of need to ram playmaking possessions to Scottie, and a lot of incentive to give them to BI instead because of how dramatically superior he is as a scoring weapon.

I think Scottie will still feature as the hub of the offense. IQ can play a lot off ball because of his shooting, and I see a lot of two man action with Scottie/Ingram.

Where I think we see the biggest difference in the offense is that Ingram will take most of those iso shots at the end of the shot clock when the offense breaks down that Scottie took last year. And Ingram is a lot better in that role as he's been one of the better iso scorers over the years.

[Clay Davis]

Scottie's one of the few guys in the league defensively who has the capabilities to defend 1 through 5 like OG can, which is a very unique quality.

This past season:

Scottie:
% guarding Gs (34.9%): Opponents had a 52.5 TS%
% guarding Fs (49.6%): Opponents had a 51.5 TS%
% guarding Cs (15.5%): Opponents had a 58.1 TS%
Overall: Opponents had a 52.8 TS%

OG:
% guarding Gs (55.6%): Opponents had a 53.6 TS%
% guarding Fs (35.2%): Opponents had a 46.1 TS%
% guarding Cs (9.1%): Opponents had a 56.7 TS%
Overall: Opponents had a 52.0 TS%


Scottie was one of the best all-around defenders in the league last year but it sorta got lost in the shuffle.

If Scottie's offense becomes as good as his defense, we'll have a top 10 player on our hands. If he even gets to league average, he's top 20-25. His rizz is limited, but there's a good foundation. If you go to the earlier parts of this thread you'll see some posts about how good his midrange was to start the season. If he's even average from 3 and his midrange gets back to that level, is offense will have caught up, by my reckoning.

[tsherkin]

I think Scottie will still feature as the hub of the offense.

Christ, I hope not.

Where I think we see the biggest difference in the offense is that Ingram will take most of those iso shots at the end of the shot clock when the offense breaks down that Scottie took last year. And Ingram is a lot better in that role as he's been one of the better iso scorers over the years.

Sure. But we need to also ensure Scottie never takes another ATB 3, because that was a HUGE part of why he was so profoundly incompetent at scoring efficiently last year. He's tolerable as a -1% rTS guy, but last year he was the worst guy in the league scoring 19+, and that's a problem. We need to reduce his volume and very much stop him from shooting ATB 3s. If he wants to handle in transition after getting a DRB and the like, great; he excels there. But once we get into set offense in the halfcourt, we have loads of other options right now which are of at least comparable total value, once you factor in scoring potential.

[Scase]

I agree it's a pretty poor group of people to compare Scottie to, just wanted to provide additional context for what they did while they were Scottie's age instead of including their prime seasons and peaks. None of these guys had their best seasons on their rookie contracts, and I don't see any reason to believe Scottie will either. There's more reason to believe he'll continue to develop than to believe he'll stagnate and have no improvement in efficiency throughout the rest of his career IMO.

I don't think it's overrating Scottie to say he's around a Top 50 player in the league at 23. If that doesn't point to 'large future success', what does? What do you define as 'so-so success'? If he can improve that to ~Top 25 during his prime years, that's gotta be significantly better than 'so-so', right?

For sure, and I agree. He's going to continue to develop, but the level at which he will is something I think most people need a reality check for. Case in point, TheGeneral using AD/Embiid/Giannis etc as examples to hold him up to. The level of expectations people have are way out of whack, all of the players (again, save for JJJ) used have shown way more offensive prowess from even year 1 or 2 than Scottie has even in year 4.

Scottie has to improve pretty drastically to just be average, those guys were above average in the same time frame, it's a way wider of a gap than most people care to admit. Starting from a 7/10 makes an 8, 9, 10 much more attainable, than starting at a 4 or 5.

Scottie has his flaws with efficiency and is a misfit as a primary creator, but he's already a Top 50 player in the league. I think saying Scottie has to "improve pretty drastically to just be average" is about as far from reality as comparing him to AD/Embiid/Giannis.

Are we talking average for all-stars?

No, we're talking league average TS%, he is 5.9% points below it, and a couple % points in TS% is huge, 5.9% is the difference between league average and elite.

[HangTime]

I think Scottie will still feature as the hub of the offense.

Christ, I hope not.

Where I think we see the biggest difference in the offense is that Ingram will take most of those iso shots at the end of the shot clock when the offense breaks down that Scottie took last year. And Ingram is a lot better in that role as he's been one of the better iso scorers over the years.

Sure. But we need to also ensure Scottie never takes another ATB 3, because that was a HUGE part of why he was so profoundly incompetent at scoring efficiently last year. He's tolerable as a -1% rTS guy, but last year he was the worst guy in the league scoring 19+, and that's a problem. We need to reduce his volume and very much stop him from shooting ATB 3s. If he wants to handle in transition after getting a DRB and the like, great; he excels there. But once we get into set offense in the halfcourt, we have loads of other options right now which are of at least comparable total value, once you factor in scoring potential.

I hope he attempts like 4-6 threes per game next season.

Last season, we know why he struggled to shoot, (eye, ankle, hand injuries) but he was willing to take them, and that's the key.
That's why I think the 27% is fooling everyone.

In 2023-24, before OG was traded, he was shooting 39.5% (70/177).

So if he's healthy, I can see him shoot like 37%, as along as he doesn't have to go all out as a POA defender (that's where dip happened after the OG trade)

[tsherkin]

I hope he attempts like 4-6 threes per game next season.

I sincerely hope not.

So if he's healthy, I can see him shoot like 37%, as along as he doesn't have to go all out as a POA defender (that's where dip happened after the OG trade)

Seems unlikely. OG's last game was December 29th, which means Barnes had played 31 games during the period you're describing. That isn't really a useful, meaningful sample. That's a hot streak.

EDIT: Also, 5+ 3PA/g would imply he's shooting 15+ FGA/g, which would also be a bad idea.

[Madvillainy2004]

I think Scottie will still feature as the hub of the offense.

Christ, I hope not.

Where I think we see the biggest difference in the offense is that Ingram will take most of those iso shots at the end of the shot clock when the offense breaks down that Scottie took last year. And Ingram is a lot better in that role as he's been one of the better iso scorers over the years.

Sure. But we need to also ensure Scottie never takes another ATB 3, because that was a HUGE part of why he was so profoundly incompetent at scoring efficiently last year. He's tolerable as a -1% rTS guy, but last year he was the worst guy in the league scoring 19+, and that's a problem. We need to reduce his volume and very much stop him from shooting ATB 3s. If he wants to handle in transition after getting a DRB and the like, great; he excels there. But once we get into set offense in the halfcourt, we have loads of other options right now which are of at least comparable total value, once you factor in scoring potential.

The problem with Scottie as some sort of hub is he can't score effectively from anywhere. The best path is him developing his finishing and working more as a big than this PG fantasy he wants to try (which was silly in 2023 and is sillier now). I guess he could be used in some sort of Diaw/Draymond role but even those guys proved to be somewhat capable of scoring with efficiency. Well less so for Draymond but he's also a S-Tier defender and was a great screener (playing with Curry/Durant didn't hurt either).

I just don't see why defense would have any respect for Scotties scoring game with him having the ball. IQ/Bi should really be running the offense. I have a hard time even saying he should have touches over RJ. His skill set is unique but his lack of shooting/finishing really hinders what we can do to run an efficient offense with him. And it gets worse cause he is being paid like a guy that shouldn't be a 4th option glue guy lol

[tsherkin]

The problem with Scottie as some sort of hub is he can't score effectively from anywhere. The best path is him developing his finishing and working more as a big than this PG fantasy he wants to try (which was silly in 2023 and is sillier now). I guess he could be used in some sort of Diaw/Draymond role but even those guys proved to be somewhat capable of scoring with efficiency. Well less so for Draymond but he's also a S-Tier defender and was a great screener (playing with Curry/Durant didn't hurt either).

Yes, Diaw provided more as a scorer. Draymond... less so. He hasn't even scored 10+ ppg since 2018, after all. He also isn't a ball-handling initiator, he's more of a mid-court hub who helps swing the ball, so it's a little different in approach. And, as you noted, he's an excellent screener, which Scottie is not at this time.

I agree, developing him more as a play-finisher makes sense. If he can learn how to screen properly, he could be a pretty effective playmaker as a roll man easily enough, and that would be a great way to use his passing ability while letting others initiate and carry volume.

[Scase]

The problem with Scottie as some sort of hub is he can't score effectively from anywhere. The best path is him developing his finishing and working more as a big than this PG fantasy he wants to try (which was silly in 2023 and is sillier now). I guess he could be used in some sort of Diaw/Draymond role but even those guys proved to be somewhat capable of scoring with efficiency. Well less so for Draymond but he's also a S-Tier defender and was a great screener (playing with Curry/Durant didn't hurt either).

Yes, Diaw provided more as a scorer. Draymond... less so. He hasn't even scored 10+ ppg since 2018, after all. He also isn't a ball-handling initiator, he's more of a mid-court hub who helps swing the ball, so it's a little different in approach. And, as you noted, he's an excellent screener, which Scottie is not at this time.

I agree, developing him more as a play-finisher makes sense. If he can learn how to screen properly, he could be a pretty effective playmaker as a roll man easily enough, and that would be a great way to use his passing ability while letting others initiate and carry volume.

The fact that 4 years in he's still atrocious at screening is a concern.