2025 NBA Draft (2)

[ProcessDoctor]

https://bsky.app/profile/franciszomes.bsky.social/post/3lq5ohmtd7k2n

I don't know what kind of sources Russillo, Bill, or Hollinger have when it comes to the draft.

Hollinger is THE advanced stats, guy so that makes sense.

FWIW, Simmons has a pretty good track record calling the draft. He loved our McCain pick last year, despite being a Celtics homer.

I really think V.J. is who we pick if we stay at #3. And I think we'd draft Harper in a heartbeat if SAS passes on him. We are so lucky to land the 3rd pick, but I'll be greedy and say I wish we landed at #1 or #2 for a surer thing here.

[Negrodamus]

I was just doing a little bit of a dive into VJ Edgecombe's stats and man, what a ride.

It seems like when one aspect of his game goes down, another area goes up.

Nov (7 gms) seems like everything was going to hell for him except for blocks. He got like little more than half his blocks in the month of Nov.

Dec (3 gms) he goes nuclear inside the arc (78% 2FG) but is still struggling from outside and from FT.

Jan (8 gms) he goes nuclear from 3 (48% 3FG) and FT (87% FT), both on volume, but his 2FG goes to **** (44% 2FG). Also highest ppg with 18.5ppg.

Feb (7 gms) and Mar (7 gms) the 3FG falls off a cliff (29% and 26% respectively) but 2FG jump up again (56%, 53%). FT begins a steady decline (85% Feb, 74% Mar). Feb sees highest assist per game for the year (3.9 apg), and while that drops in Mar (2.4 apg), the rpg balloons to a season high 7.1rpg.

Not sure what to take away from this since the NBA is a league of consistency for survival. On the one hand, the numbers are all over the place which suggest chaos, but on another hand, he's always a contributor in some way to the teams success. Just one of the weirder month by month splits that I've seen of the top prospects.

[the_process]

Kon is the guy whose tape I love. He always stood out during my Duke watches this year. I think they lost the last game because they went away from him imo.

Just don't know if you can hide him on defense and I wish we was a bit taller and more capable of playing the 3. Him skipping testing was smart lol because if he can hold up on defense (never will be a stopper of course ) then that kinda makes him the pick in terms of what we need skillset wise. He's kinda like a bigger McCain in a sense.

Bodner in his big board show said Kon will need to be hidden on defense. That's great! So he can go hide in the closet with Maxey and McCain and we'll just have 2 guys on the floor playing defense against 5.

I was so disappointed in Bodner admitting you need to hide Kon on defense. In today's NBA if you can't be passable in defense you're not in a playoff rotation. The only way you are is if you're at the level of a Dame Lillard or James Harden who both score and set the table for the rest of the team at HOF levels of skill. That's the kind of player Kon would need to become if he's going to be a defensive liability.

I'm not quite buying what Derek is saying here. While you can't throw Kon on an island with SGA and say stop him, he should be a perfectly fine team defender.

And when he proves at least mediocre, he's big enough that teams will target elsewhere.

And let's be honest. Two years from now, it's very likely one of Maxey and McCain will no longer be here.

[Black Mage]

Kon is the guy whose tape I love. He always stood out during my Duke watches this year. I think they lost the last game because they went away from him imo.

Just don't know if you can hide him on defense and I wish we was a bit taller and more capable of playing the 3. Him skipping testing was smart lol because if he can hold up on defense (never will be a stopper of course ) then that kinda makes him the pick in terms of what we need skillset wise. He's kinda like a bigger McCain in a sense.

Bodner in his big board show said Kon will need to be hidden on defense. That's great! So he can go hide in the closet with Maxey and McCain and we'll just have 2 guys on the floor playing defense against 5.

I was so disappointed in Bodner admitting you need to hide Kon on defense. In today's NBA if you can't be passable in defense you're not in a playoff rotation. The only way you are is if you're at the level of a Dame Lillard or James Harden who both score and set the table for the rest of the team at HOF levels of skill. That's the kind of player Kon would need to become if he's going to be a defensive liability.

I'm not quite buying what Derek is saying here. While you can't throw Kon on an island with SGA and say stop him, he should be a perfectly fine team defender.

And when he proves at least mediocre, he's big enough that teams will target elsewhere.

And let's be honest. Two years from now, it's very likely one of Maxey and McCain will no longer be here.

How many playoff series have we been in where our opponent hunted one guy on PNR and murdered us over and over?

How many playoff series have we watched now where we see an opponent just run PNR to hunt the other team's weak defender and do it almost every play b/c the other team can't hide their weak defender?

How many times have we seen slower unathletic players get played off the floor? Now add to that a player with teeny tiny baby t-rex arms?

Kon won't have an elite Flagg or a monstrous mobile Maluach to clean up his failures. It'll be open season on him in the playoffs.

[Negrodamus]

Kasparas being 37% assisted from 3 is pretty insane. 26.3% assisted at the rim (67.3% FG!). 0.0% assisted from 2FG jumpers. If his jumpers weren't falling because of an arm injury (and his FT% suggest it was), then there needs to be a real discussion about him in the top 5. Those are elite numbers for a guard.

[the_process]

Bodner in his big board show said Kon will need to be hidden on defense. That's great! So he can go hide in the closet with Maxey and McCain and we'll just have 2 guys on the floor playing defense against 5.

I was so disappointed in Bodner admitting you need to hide Kon on defense. In today's NBA if you can't be passable in defense you're not in a playoff rotation. The only way you are is if you're at the level of a Dame Lillard or James Harden who both score and set the table for the rest of the team at HOF levels of skill. That's the kind of player Kon would need to become if he's going to be a defensive liability.

I'm not quite buying what Derek is saying here. While you can't throw Kon on an island with SGA and say stop him, he should be a perfectly fine team defender.

And when he proves at least mediocre, he's big enough that teams will target elsewhere.

And let's be honest. Two years from now, it's very likely one of Maxey and McCain will no longer be here.

How many playoff series have we been in where our opponent hunted one guy on PNR and murdered us over and over?

How many playoff series have we watched now where we see an opponent just run PNR to hunt the other team's weak defender and do it almost every play b/c the other team can't hide their weak defender?

How many times have we seen slower unathletic players get played off the floor? Now add to that a player with teeny tiny baby t-rex arms?

Kon won't have an elite Flagg or a monstrous mobile Maluach to clean up his failures. It'll be open season on him in the playoffs.

If all that was completely true, his defensive numbers would suck. They do not.

Also for the record, I'm not advocating for Kon, and certainly not at 3. I am just guessing who Morey has. If they traded back to 5, 6, 7 and took him and got another asset or two that's acceptable.

Also, discussing these guys in a playoff setting is premature. If Joel is toast, they aren't getting out of the play-in for a couple years here.

[zaz102]

That Tik Tok was good. The cutting and movement shooting is potentially crazy with McCain.

Watched the Tik Tok. Was Rutgers offense just hey, run around and try and get open? His teammates were terrible too. In order to succeed at Rutgers last year, you needed to be a guy who could break you man off the dribble and get to the rim to create either your own offense or kickouts. That's obviously more of a game Harper plays than Bailey and something that he needs to work on. I don't know why these two guys didn't go to blue blood schools.

From what I understand, they went to Rutgers as they used all their NIL money in the two prospects. According to Derek and Kyle, the Rutgers coaching is trash. They indicated they just told Ace to go out there and make something happen instead of developing him.

If you're a Bailey-ver, you'd argue the NIL makes this situation unique and the coaching didn't show Ace at his full potential. If you're not a Bailey-ver, you'd say thay he chose the bad situation for money over development and got the ball a lot in his hands and didn't show some of the skills you'd hope for.

[youngcrev]

Kasparas being 37% assisted from 3 is pretty insane. 26.3% assisted at the rim (67.3% FG!). 0.0% assisted from 2FG jumpers. If his jumpers weren't falling because of an arm injury (and his FT% suggest it was), then there needs to be a real discussion about him in the top 5. Those are elite numbers for a guard.

Ah, didn't know there was an injury question. Early on he was the guy I was interested in if we kept the pick based off the playmaking highlights. Desperate for a big primary playmaker to go next to Maxey. And just a plus passer in general.

Egor Demin was a just an early season flash against light competition, right?

[Negrodamus]

Kasparas being 37% assisted from 3 is pretty insane. 26.3% assisted at the rim (67.3% FG!). 0.0% assisted from 2FG jumpers. If his jumpers weren't falling because of an arm injury (and his FT% suggest it was), then there needs to be a real discussion about him in the top 5. Those are elite numbers for a guard.

Ah, didn't know there was an injury question. Early on he was the guy I was interested in if we kept the pick based off the playmaking highlights. Desperate for a big primary playmaker to go next to Maxey. And just a plus passer in general.

Egor Demin was a just an early season flash against light competition, right?

Hurt his left arm somewhat early in the season and his percentages started going down after. Still have a few concerns about him but his playmaking is undeniable. Would be easily top 3 if his wingspan was Harper’s size.

[Jojothewhale]

Egor Demin was a just an early season flash against light competition, right?

Yes. Laughed out loud when I read the rumor that the Nets love him at 8.

[LeonJordanJr24]

We talking Ace . We need star upside and shot making not Victor Olidipo. Wth all this debate at 3 for considering Gerald Honeycomb as a option is just plain boredom...

[Negrodamus]

Just watched the U18 game where Jakucionis cooked France (Essengue, Traore, Beringer) for 37pts. He feels like 6’6 Brunson: under the basket but with an array of moves that gets him to the rim with the ability to finish with either hand. Defense was shaky, but the offense really popped. Also threw some high level passes to open guys who bricked their jumpers. I’m fairly high on him.

[Black Mage]

OMG it's a non-3rd overall pick comment.

I really want the Sixers to find a way to get the #14 or #15 pick from the Spurs or Thunder. Feels like the sweet spot to land Nique Clifford; Cedric Coward and/or Rasheer Fleming. Heck, if even 2 or 3 of those guys jump up higher we could be sitting and watching someone like Queen, Maluach, Kasper or Kon sliding down to that range.

Spurs: I'd be willing to give up a 1st with Top 5 protections and a future second.

Thunder: #35 and removal of the Top 4 protection for next year.

[ProcessDoctor]

If you had to pick 5 future All-Stars (average from any given draft) from this draft, who would they be? I'll start...

Flagg, Harper, Bailey, Essengue, & Richardson

[76ciology]

Just watched the U18 game where Jakucionis cooked France (Essengue, Traore, Beringer) for 37pts. He feels like 6’6 Brunson: under the basket but with an array of moves that gets him to the rim with the ability to finish with either hand. Defense was shaky, but the offense really popped. Also threw some high level passes to open guys who bricked their jumpers. I’m fairly high on him.

Yes, and he’s only 18.

That’s why he’s top3 in my mock from a month ago. 59TS% on elite 3PTr and FTr, also good with those stepback 3s on ISO. He also has a good history of shooting 85% FT%, I’d project him to be a good to very good 3pt shooter in the NBA. The downside is his size but he plays hard and physcial on defense like McCain, both hustles and are good rebounders. Same style on defense with Podziemski of the Warriors.

[76ciology]

If you had to pick 5 future All-Stars (average from any given draft) from this draft, who would they be? I'll start...

Flagg, Harper, Bailey, Essengue, & Richardson

Flagg
Harper
Tre Johnson
Kasparas
Jeremiah Fears

Scoring, playmaking and feel for the game.

[M2J]

Read on Twitter

This is the most compelling argument I've seen for Ace and would actually help me come to terms with him at #3 if we ended up selecting him. Acknowledges his shortcomings, gives numbers to back up his upside, gives clips to show his special moments, describes the path to becoming a very good, possibly star level player. His ability to recognize backdoor cuts and get himself open has not been talked about much on here despite it being one of his more alluring traits on offense, particularly on a team with Embiid, PG, and Maxey needing the ball. Way more willing to listen to pro-Ace takes like this.

Have you not read anything I've written? I said Ace had really good awareness on offense and could catch and movement and make cuts. No one apparently listened.

I was about to say....3 of us have had better breakdowns and stats with better video in this conversation. From his defense and where his length at 7'1 means more than where his head is located (you don't block shots with your head)...to movement off ball shooting and cutting, his 2nd half ft shooting resurgence.

I think this video failed to showcase how he got those mid-range shots and that is more than just one dribble pull-up. His footwork is excellent and that's how he creates shots. Screw dribbling....you can create a system for him to be a shot creator... Matter of fact 76ers already have a system where he can be a mid range dho hub or off ball shooting recipient to get to the rim or get to his spots like oubre... Or cut baseline.

[76ciology]

The Sixers are expected to receive “a ton” of trade calls about the 3rd-overall pick ahead of the 2025 NBA Draft.

“I think their goal is to draft at that pick. I think there’s about three players they like at No. 3, but they’re gonna get a ton of calls about No. 3.”

Watch on YouTube

16:30 mark

He sounds like the calls are for proven players, rather than trading down.

[76ciology]

The 3rd pick is the worst spot in the draft, it’s the only spot where there’s almost 0 chance at landing a steal, and there’s like 2 to 3 picks below that has a high chance of being better than the guy you’re picking at 3rd.

[76ciology]

Something to consider with Ace Bailey.. while his 4% block rate and 1.3 blocks per game look solid on paper, the film and numbers shows he’s essentially acting as Rutgers’ lone rim protector. I’m pretty sure he’s even the one jumping for the opening tip at center court.

The second best shot blocker on the team is Somerville, with just 18 blocks all season, that’s only one more than Dylan Harper, who’s 3rd in total blocks for Rutgers. Both Somerville and Harper averaged a combined 1.2 bpg. The numbers clearly show Bailey is carrying the rim protection burden.

Now, if you project him into a lineup with a rim protector, it’s reasonable to expect his block numbers to drop. And when you factor in his low steal rate, nearly identical to Tre Johnson’s, you start to see a more limited defensive profile.