2025 NBA Draft (2)

[MVP1992]

Has anyone scouted next year's draft class?

Seems to be a plethora of 6'7" thru 6'10" (likely in shoes) players coming through.

Who will be the NBAs worst 4 teams next year?

[M2J]

Something to consider with Ace Bailey.. while his 4% block rate and 1.3 blocks per game look solid on paper, the film and numbers shows he’s essentially acting as Rutgers’ lone rim protector. I’m pretty sure he’s even the one jumping for the opening tip at center court.

The second best shot blocker on the team is Somerville, with just 18 blocks all season, that’s only one more than Dylan Harper, who’s 3rd in total blocks for Rutgers. Both Somerville and Harper averaged a combined 1.2 bpg. The numbers clearly show Bailey is carrying the rim protection burden.

Now, if you project him into a lineup with a rim protector, it’s reasonable to expect his block numbers to drop. And when you factor in his low steal rate, nearly identical to Tre Johnson’s, you start to see a more limited defensive profile.

Tape shows him to essentially be playing weakside help, not primary, but he uses that length when defending perimeter to block 3s and getting shots from behind if beaten too. But secondary rim protection has been a want since Ben and Al were in Philly. Whether he gets the block or not, his length can change shots

[M2J]

The 3rd pick is the worst spot in the draft, it’s the only spot where there’s almost 0 chance at landing a steal, and there’s like 2 to 3 picks below that has a high chance of being better than the guy you’re picking at 3rd.

[LeonJordanJr24]

The 3rd pick is the worst spot in the draft, it’s the only spot where there’s almost 0 chance at landing a steal, and there’s like 2 to 3 picks below that has a high chance of being better than the guy you’re picking at 3rd.

No you're overthinking... Take Ace at 3

[76ciology]

Something to consider with Ace Bailey.. while his 4% block rate and 1.3 blocks per game look solid on paper, the film and numbers shows he’s essentially acting as Rutgers’ lone rim protector. I’m pretty sure he’s even the one jumping for the opening tip at center court.

The second best shot blocker on the team is Somerville, with just 18 blocks all season, that’s only one more than Dylan Harper, who’s 3rd in total blocks for Rutgers. Both Somerville and Harper averaged a combined 1.2 bpg. The numbers clearly show Bailey is carrying the rim protection burden.

Now, if you project him into a lineup with a rim protector, it’s reasonable to expect his block numbers to drop. And when you factor in his low steal rate, nearly identical to Tre Johnson’s, you start to see a more limited defensive profile.

Tape shows him to essentially be playing weakside help, not primary, but he uses that length when defending perimeter to block 3s and getting shots from behind if beaten too. But secondary rim protection has been a want since Ben and Al were in Philly. Whether he gets the block or not, his length can change shots

Yes, he’s playing a weakside help role but also serving as the primary rim protector.

My point isn’t whether he can contest shots; it’s that his block numbers are inflated because he’s the only one on the team athletic and long enough (and possibly given the greenlight) to fly around and hunt blocks from the weak side.

[M2J]

Something to consider with Ace Bailey.. while his 4% block rate and 1.3 blocks per game look solid on paper, the film and numbers shows he’s essentially acting as Rutgers’ lone rim protector. I’m pretty sure he’s even the one jumping for the opening tip at center court.

The second best shot blocker on the team is Somerville, with just 18 blocks all season, that’s only one more than Dylan Harper, who’s 3rd in total blocks for Rutgers. Both Somerville and Harper averaged a combined 1.2 bpg. The numbers clearly show Bailey is carrying the rim protection burden.

Now, if you project him into a lineup with a rim protector, it’s reasonable to expect his block numbers to drop. And when you factor in his low steal rate, nearly identical to Tre Johnson’s, you start to see a more limited defensive profile.

Tape shows him to essentially be playing weakside help, not primary, but he uses that length when defending perimeter to block 3s and getting shots from behind if beaten too. But secondary rim protection has been a want since Ben and Al were in Philly. Whether he gets the block or not, his length can change shots

Yes, he’s playing a weakside help role but also serving as the primary rim protector.

My point isn’t whether he can contest shots; it’s that his block numbers are inflated because he’s the only one on the team athletic and long enough (and possibly given the greenlight) to fly around and hunt blocks from the weak side.

Hmmm

[M2J]

The 3rd pick is the worst spot in the draft, it’s the only spot where there’s almost 0 chance at landing a steal, and there’s like 2 to 3 picks below that has a high chance of being better than the guy you’re picking at 3rd.

No you're overthinking... Take Ace at 3

[76ciology]

The 3rd pick is the worst spot in the draft, it’s the only spot where there’s almost 0 chance at landing a steal, and there’s like 2 to 3 picks below that has a high chance of being better than the guy you’re picking at 3rd.

No you're overthinking... Take Ace at 3

Personally, I’m only considering VJ, Tre, and Kasparas for the third pick. Ace isn’t really in the conversation for me, by doing that Im eliminating the noise to make me less overthink.

[76ciology]

Tape shows him to essentially be playing weakside help, not primary, but he uses that length when defending perimeter to block 3s and getting shots from behind if beaten too. But secondary rim protection has been a want since Ben and Al were in Philly. Whether he gets the block or not, his length can change shots

Yes, he’s playing a weakside help role but also serving as the primary rim protector.

My point isn’t whether he can contest shots; it’s that his block numbers are inflated because he’s the only one on the team athletic and long enough (and possibly given the greenlight) to fly around and hunt blocks from the weak side.

Hmmm

I’d like to add that it probably explains why his on/off defensive numbers is good, because he’s the only decent weakside shot helper on the team.

There’s a big difference in opponent’s shot quality when you have Yabusele as weakside help defender than Adem Bona.

Some wanted context to go along with numbers, now you get it.

[phifans]

Yes, he’s playing a weakside help role but also serving as the primary rim protector.

My point isn’t whether he can contest shots; it’s that his block numbers are inflated because he’s the only one on the team athletic and long enough (and possibly given the greenlight) to fly around and hunt blocks from the weak side.

Hmmm

I’d like to add that it probably explains why his on/off defensive numbers is good, because he’s the only decent weakside shot helper on the team.

There’s a big difference in opponent’s shot quality when you have Yabusele as weakside help defender than Adem Bona.

Some wanted context to go along with numbers, now you get it.

It's quite impressive that how you use double standard when evaluating Ace Bailey's offensive and defensive impact.

[LeonJordanJr24]

Ace not being in consideration for 3rd pick is just plain...

[76ciology]

Kasparas being 37% assisted from 3 is pretty insane. 26.3% assisted at the rim (67.3% FG!). 0.0% assisted from 2FG jumpers. If his jumpers weren't falling because of an arm injury (and his FT% suggest it was), then there needs to be a real discussion about him in the top 5. Those are elite numbers for a guard.

Every time I dig into Kasparas’ numbers, I end up in a rabbit hole wondering why he isn’t a clear top-3 pick.

He’s an efficient and LEGIT 3 level scorer with a really promising shooting profile. He’s probably top 3 in playmaking and feel in this class. The downside is his lack of length, but he makes up for it with strong rebounding for a guard and a defensive profile that reminds me of guys like Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard, or Quentin Grimes that can guard 1&2 and some 3.

[Stanford]

The 3rd pick is the worst spot in the draft, it’s the only spot where there’s almost 0 chance at landing a steal, and there’s like 2 to 3 picks below that has a high chance of being better than the guy you’re picking at 3rd.

Sounds like #1 is the worst spot in the draft.

[76ciology]

I’m also out on Maluach. Most of his production and impact come from by just having 9’6” standing reach, mobility, and athleticism. He can catch lobs, rebound and get blocks mostly because he’s against smaller players, and as long as he’s not up against physical bigs who know how to seal and establish position.

I’ve thought about his upside too. His best-case scenario might be a Chet Holmgren type, but honestly, he’s a long way from that level, both skill wise and feel wise. Maybe he’s be as good one day, but from what I’ve seen, I’d rather let someone else take that bet.

[SixersSince82]

Something to consider with Ace Bailey.. while his 4% block rate and 1.3 blocks per game look solid on paper, the film and numbers shows he’s essentially acting as Rutgers’ lone rim protector. I’m pretty sure he’s even the one jumping for the opening tip at center court.

The second best shot blocker on the team is Somerville, with just 18 blocks all season, that’s only one more than Dylan Harper, who’s 3rd in total blocks for Rutgers. Both Somerville and Harper averaged a combined 1.2 bpg. The numbers clearly show Bailey is carrying the rim protection burden.

Now, if you project him into a lineup with a rim protector, it’s reasonable to expect his block numbers to drop. And when you factor in his low steal rate, nearly identical to Tre Johnson’s, you start to see a more limited defensive profile.

Tape shows him to essentially be playing weakside help, not primary, but he uses that length when defending perimeter to block 3s and getting shots from behind if beaten too. But secondary rim protection has been a want since Ben and Al were in Philly. Whether he gets the block or not, his length can change shots

Yes, he’s playing a weakside help role but also serving as the primary rim protector.

My point isn’t whether he can contest shots; it’s that his block numbers are inflated because he’s the only one on the team athletic and long enough (and possibly given the greenlight) to fly around and hunt blocks from the weak side.

Lol, know we are knocking Ace for being athletic and long. smh.

[Jojothewhale]

To me, the playoffs become more and more about high feel players every year. Maybe that changes in the future. There are always going to be teams that win by zagging. But I’m just not interested in taking someone at 3 whose feel for the game gives me major concern.

I’m also out on Maluach. Most of his production and impact come from by just having 9’6” standing reach, mobility, and athleticism. He can catch lobs, rebound and get blocks mostly because he’s against smaller players, and as long as he’s not up against physical bigs who know how to seal and establish position.

I’ve thought about his upside too. His best-case scenario might be a Chet Holmgren type, but honestly, he’s a long way from that level, both skill wise and feel wise. Maybe he’s be as good one day, but from what I’ve seen, I’d rather let someone else take that bet.

I feel like this is the actual “don’t overthink it” guy. It’s not the bet I want to make either, but there is absolutely a world in which we look back and wonder how everyone missed on him. The rim protection + PnR defense gives him so much of a base that being a lob threat on the other end could be enough without adding anything else major.

[Negrodamus]

Read on Twitter

This is the most compelling argument I've seen for Ace and would actually help me come to terms with him at #3 if we ended up selecting him. Acknowledges his shortcomings, gives numbers to back up his upside, gives clips to show his special moments, describes the path to becoming a very good, possibly star level player. His ability to recognize backdoor cuts and get himself open has not been talked about much on here despite it being one of his more alluring traits on offense, particularly on a team with Embiid, PG, and Maxey needing the ball. Way more willing to listen to pro-Ace takes like this.

Have you not read anything I've written? I said Ace had really good awareness on offense and could catch and movement and make cuts. No one apparently listened.

I was about to say....3 of us have had better breakdowns and stats with better video in this conversation. From his defense and where his length at 7'1 means more than where his head is located (you don't block shots with your head)...to movement off ball shooting and cutting, his 2nd half ft shooting resurgence.

I think this video failed to showcase how he got those mid-range shots and that is more than just one dribble pull-up. His footwork is excellent and that's how he creates shots. Screw dribbling....you can create a system for him to be a shot creator... Matter of fact 76ers already have a system where he can be a mid range dho hub or off ball shooting recipient to get to the rim or get to his spots like oubre... Or cut baseline.

My bad gentlemen; between the endless throwaway posts telling me to not overthink it (or a derivation of that thought) and my ADHD, the substantive Ace posts must have been auto-filtered in my brain.

[Negrodamus]

Kasparas being 37% assisted from 3 is pretty insane. 26.3% assisted at the rim (67.3% FG!). 0.0% assisted from 2FG jumpers. If his jumpers weren't falling because of an arm injury (and his FT% suggest it was), then there needs to be a real discussion about him in the top 5. Those are elite numbers for a guard.

Every time I dig into Kasparas’ numbers, I end up in a rabbit hole wondering why he isn’t a clear top-3 pick.

He’s an efficient and LEGIT 3 level scorer with a really promising shooting profile. He’s probably top 3 in playmaking and feel in this class. The downside is his lack of length, but he makes up for it with strong rebounding for a guard and a defensive profile that reminds me of guys like Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard, or Quentin Grimes that can guard 1&2 and some 3.

Yea, you just have to know you're not getting him for his defense. He is an opportunistic disruptor though. He averaged 1.7 spg in the FIBA U18 games, which weren't a massive sample size but was definitely full of talent. His volume at the rim, the FTr, his FT%, and 3FG volume suggests he's going to be an electric scorer at the next level.

[mjkvol]

The 3rd pick is the worst spot in the draft, it’s the only spot where there’s almost 0 chance at landing a steal, and there’s like 2 to 3 picks below that has a high chance of being better than the guy you’re picking at 3rd.

Exactly my POV during this whole process. I'm happy to be in the game on draft night, but would feel a lot better with pick 5-8 and something later, which in the best of all worlds we get an offer to trade down to. My thinking about this draft is that the "stars" will end up being players from the late lottery or even in the mid first round.

My top 3 are Jaku and Kon, both of whom I've loved all along, and Maluach, whose potential seems through the roof but who I'd only consider with a pick in the teens. And there are a bunch of mid and late 1st round players who have star potential as well.

[Negrodamus]

Speaking of the FIBA U18 games, the MVP was Ben Saraf and his numbers were insane:

28.1 ppg (2.4/6.7 36.2% 3FG, 48.6% 2FG, 6.3/8.3 75.9% FT), 5rpg, 5.3apg, 4 spg, 1 bpg

At 6'6, maybe he should be getting more buzz. I've watched a minute of his highlights from his 7 games there and he's already dunked twice which is two more times than I saw Kasparas dunk the ball.