2025 NBA Draft (2)

[ProcessDoctor]

Personally, I’m only considering VJ, Tre, and Kasparas for the third pick. Ace isn’t really in the conversation for me, by doing that Im eliminating the noise to make me less overthink.

It's very difficult for me to pick between the three. Kasparas on paper looks the best but his 1 dunk on the season and the eye test of him looking smaller than he is out there concerns me. Even Tre dunked it 7 times on 11 attempts and he barely even see the basket that close up.

VJ's defense is very overblown, he's totally clueless off ball. Very frustrating to watch when he's ball watching for an entire possession and he gets cooked on a backdoor cut. Or when he overcommits on a close out and gets pump faked. He has all the tools but he uses them in chaotic ways. Even his shot is a little wonky. The handles are mechanic even though he does show flashes of legit navigation in traffic. Him being pretty bad at the rim in halfcourt situations is hard for me to reconcile too. If he had a 7'ft wingspan, I'd grit my teeth, shrug my shoulders, and say he's the pick.

Tre's shot diet is disqualifying in itself (much like A** Ba****). Shot 18% of his FG at the rim. His FTr is also a bit too low for my liking (but I can actually hold my nose and work with .265 FTr). Mix in that his defense is a complete dumpster fire and it's so hard for me to get on board with him.

It's the tale of elite production vs athleticism vs size. Not saying the others don't produce, but Kasparas hits all the markers of a superstar scorer at the next level. VJ on tape is obviously the superior athlete by what seems like a substantial margin of the three. And Tre has a 6'10 W/S and a decent frame to add weight which is usually what you'd see from the stars of the league.

It's really just taking a gamble on what traits you think have the best chance of translating into stardom at the next level.

If only there was a player with two of these things: an offensive initiator who was 6'10+ with a 7'+ wingspan and had fairly elite offensive production (particularly at the end of the year).

Watch on YouTube

Also, just wanted to put this out there as far as athleticism goes:

Queen: 39 dunks

Flagg: 36 dunks
Harper: 11 dunks
Bailey: 24 dunks
Edgecombe: 33 dunks
Fears: 9 dunks
Tre: 7 dunks
Kon: 2 dunks
Kasparas: 1 dunk
Maluach: 81 dunks
CMB: 26 dunks

So the only guy outdunking him in this top 10 is the 7'2 guy with a 7'7 wingspan.

Come on man, you're using dunks to gauge athleticism between bigs, forwards, and guards?

[Negrodamus]

It's very difficult for me to pick between the three. Kasparas on paper looks the best but his 1 dunk on the season and the eye test of him looking smaller than he is out there concerns me. Even Tre dunked it 7 times on 11 attempts and he barely even see the basket that close up.

VJ's defense is very overblown, he's totally clueless off ball. Very frustrating to watch when he's ball watching for an entire possession and he gets cooked on a backdoor cut. Or when he overcommits on a close out and gets pump faked. He has all the tools but he uses them in chaotic ways. Even his shot is a little wonky. The handles are mechanic even though he does show flashes of legit navigation in traffic. Him being pretty bad at the rim in halfcourt situations is hard for me to reconcile too. If he had a 7'ft wingspan, I'd grit my teeth, shrug my shoulders, and say he's the pick.

Tre's shot diet is disqualifying in itself (much like A** Ba****). Shot 18% of his FG at the rim. His FTr is also a bit too low for my liking (but I can actually hold my nose and work with .265 FTr). Mix in that his defense is a complete dumpster fire and it's so hard for me to get on board with him.

It's the tale of elite production vs athleticism vs size. Not saying the others don't produce, but Kasparas hits all the markers of a superstar scorer at the next level. VJ on tape is obviously the superior athlete by what seems like a substantial margin of the three. And Tre has a 6'10 W/S and a decent frame to add weight which is usually what you'd see from the stars of the league.

It's really just taking a gamble on what traits you think have the best chance of translating into stardom at the next level.

If only there was a player with two of these things: an offensive initiator who was 6'10+ with a 7'+ wingspan and had fairly elite offensive production (particularly at the end of the year).

Watch on YouTube

Also, just wanted to put this out there as far as athleticism goes:

Queen: 39 dunks

Flagg: 36 dunks
Harper: 11 dunks
Bailey: 24 dunks
Edgecombe: 33 dunks
Fears: 9 dunks
Tre: 7 dunks
Kon: 2 dunks
Kasparas: 1 dunk
Maluach: 81 dunks
CMB: 26 dunks

So the only guy outdunking him in this top 10 is the 7'2 guy with a 7'7 wingspan.

Come on man, you're using dunks to gauge athleticism between bigs, forwards, and guards?

Give me your top three from that list of most athletic prospects.

[76ciology]

Personally, I’m only considering VJ, Tre, and Kasparas for the third pick. Ace isn’t really in the conversation for me, by doing that Im eliminating the noise to make me less overthink.

It's very difficult for me to pick between the three. Kasparas on paper looks the best but his 1 dunk on the season and the eye test of him looking smaller than he is out there concerns me. Even Tre dunked it 7 times on 11 attempts and he barely even see the basket that close up.

VJ's defense is very overblown, he's totally clueless off ball. Very frustrating to watch when he's ball watching for an entire possession and he gets cooked on a backdoor cut. Or when he overcommits on a close out and gets pump faked. He has all the tools but he uses them in chaotic ways. Even his shot is a little wonky. The handles are mechanic even though he does show flashes of legit navigation in traffic. Him being pretty bad at the rim in halfcourt situations is hard for me to reconcile too. If he had a 7'ft wingspan, I'd grit my teeth, shrug my shoulders, and say he's the pick.

Tre's shot diet is disqualifying in itself (much like A** Ba****). Shot 18% of his FG at the rim. His FTr is also a bit too low for my liking (but I can actually hold my nose and work with .265 FTr). Mix in that his defense is a complete dumpster fire and it's so hard for me to get on board with him.

It's the tale of elite production vs athleticism vs size. Not saying the others don't produce, but Kasparas hits all the markers of a superstar scorer at the next level. VJ on tape is obviously the superior athlete by what seems like a substantial margin of the three. And Tre has a 6'10 W/S and a decent frame to add weight which is usually what you'd see from the stars of the league.

It's really just taking a gamble on what traits you think have the best chance of translating into stardom at the next level.

If only there was a player with two of these things: an offensive initiator who was 6'10+ with a 7'+ wingspan and had fairly elite offensive production (particularly at the end of the year).

Watch on YouTube

Also, just wanted to put this out there as far as athleticism goes:

Queen: 39 dunks

Flagg: 36 dunks
Harper: 11 dunks
Bailey: 24 dunks
Edgecombe: 33 dunks
Fears: 9 dunks
Tre: 7 dunks
Kon: 2 dunks
Kasparas: 1 dunk
Maluach: 81 dunks
CMB: 26 dunks

So the only guy outdunking him in this top 10 is the 7'2 guy with a 7'7 wingspan.

Nothing against Queen, I actually like him. I was one of the people hyping him up early, maybe even too early and too much. But man… the bar for bigs to become stars in the NBA is just really high.

Look at guys like Chet and Zion, both were absolutely dominant in college and put up godlike numbers. Yet in the NBA, Chet’s averaging just 16 PPG, and Maxey is averaging more points than Zion. That says a lot. The path to stardom is simply wider and more forgiving for perimeter players than for bigs.

That’s why I’m not spending a top asset on a big unless I truly believe he has generational upside. And to be one, you need both freakish size and star perimeter player skillset. I don’t see that with Queen. He’s capped at 20ppg like Siakam and Sabonis. That and with a questionable defensive capability.

[ProcessDoctor]

If only there was a player with two of these things: an offensive initiator who was 6'10+ with a 7'+ wingspan and had fairly elite offensive production (particularly at the end of the year).

Watch on YouTube

Also, just wanted to put this out there as far as athleticism goes:

Queen: 39 dunks

Flagg: 36 dunks
Harper: 11 dunks
Bailey: 24 dunks
Edgecombe: 33 dunks
Fears: 9 dunks
Tre: 7 dunks
Kon: 2 dunks
Kasparas: 1 dunk
Maluach: 81 dunks
CMB: 26 dunks

So the only guy outdunking him in this top 10 is the 7'2 guy with a 7'7 wingspan.

Come on man, you're using dunks to gauge athleticism between bigs, forwards, and guards?

Give me your top three from that list of most athletic prospects.

Not Derik Queen, and my point is he lives in the paint, so he obviously will end up with more dunks than players like Edgecombe or Bailey.

I guess Maluach is twice as athletic as Queen?

[Negrodamus]

Come on man, you're using dunks to gauge athleticism between bigs, forwards, and guards?

Give me your top three from that list of most athletic prospects.

Not Derik Queen, and my point is he lives in the paint, so he obviously will end up with more dunks than players Edgecombe or Bailey.

I guess Maluach is twice as athletic as Queen?

You're reading into this way wrong.

This isn't an athletic ranking based on dunks. It's pointing out that he is dunking at a greater rate than the most athletic guys, so he's not some under the rim, unathletic chud that everyone makes him out to be on here. I thought that was pretty obvious here.

So, no, the number of dunks does not correlate to how many "athletic points" I'm awarding to each player.

[ProcessDoctor]

Give me your top three from that list of most athletic prospects.

Not Derik Queen, and my point is he lives in the paint, so he obviously will end up with more dunks than players Edgecombe or Bailey.

I guess Maluach is twice as athletic as Queen?

You're reading into this way wrong.

This isn't an athletic ranking based on dunks. It's pointing out that he is dunking at a greater rate than the most athletic guys, so he's not some under the rim, unathletic chud that everyone makes him out to be on here. I thought that was pretty obvious here.

So, no, the number of dunks does not correlate to how many "athletic points" I'm awarding to each player.

His combine metrics are on par with some of the worst bigs in recent draft memory.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/1klu7yl/derik_queen_combine_comps/

If you want to argue he's going to be a savvy Sengun-like player, then sure, but let's not pretend he's athletic by any means. On top of that, he has a low motor and will be 21 years old a few months into his NBA rookie season. I just don't see the ceiling you're seeing here.

[ProcessDoctor]

Player A (18-year-old freshman):
34.6 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 47% FG (10.4 FGA), 44.7% 3P (4.1 3PA), 69.7% FT (3.9 FTA), 1.9 AST, 6.2 REB, 1.0 BLK, 1.7 STL, 2.3 TOV

Player B (18-year-old freshman):
33.3 MPG, 17.6 PPG, 46% FG (14.7 FGA), 34.6 3P% (4.5 3PA), 69.2% FT (3.6 FTA), 1.3 AST, 7.2 REB, 1.3 BLK, 1.0 STL, 2.0 TOV

[Black Mage]

Something to consider with Ace Bailey.. while his 4% block rate and 1.3 blocks per game look solid on paper, the film and numbers shows he’s essentially acting as Rutgers’ lone rim protector. I’m pretty sure he’s even the one jumping for the opening tip at center court.

The second best shot blocker on the team is Somerville, with just 18 blocks all season, that’s only one more than Dylan Harper, who’s 3rd in total blocks for Rutgers. Both Somerville and Harper averaged a combined 1.2 bpg. The numbers clearly show Bailey is carrying the rim protection burden.

Now, if you project him into a lineup with a rim protector, it’s reasonable to expect his block numbers to drop. And when you factor in his low steal rate, nearly identical to Tre Johnson’s, you start to see a more limited defensive profile.

How does that even make sense? Hey, Ben Wallace is now playing next to Draymond; one's defensive power cancels the other one's out!

On the flip side of this interesting take; you could look at it that Ace was so athletic and long that he could actually beat centers for jump balls. He was good enough of an athlete with BBIQ and defensive awareness to play as the rim protector without fouling or getting into foul trouble. And his defensive numbers showing low shooting percentages when he guarded them shows just how high his defensive ceiling potential is.

How about, this is just another example of how utterly pathetic that situation was that Ace was being relied upon to carry the offense while also trying to serve as the last line of protection at the rim on defense? He did ALL of that while playing at age 17 to start the season.

Imagine if Cooper Flagg or Kon or Tre or Kasper or VJ or Maluach were told hey kid not only are we gonna need you to carry the offense with no help but also anchor the defense at the rim.

[Black Mage]

The 3rd pick is the worst spot in the draft, it’s the only spot where there’s almost 0 chance at landing a steal, and there’s like 2 to 3 picks below that has a high chance of being better than the guy you’re picking at 3rd.

Or, this is great we are assured that we'll get the guy we think is best of this group and don't have to panic that the guy we really love gets taken right in front of us or another team jumps up and beats us to them.

You should always want to be in the driver's seat and trust that you can accurately evaluate the prospects.

[Jailblazers7]

Player A (18-year-old freshman):
34.6 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 47% FG (10.4 FGA), 44.7% 3P (4.1 3PA), 69.7% FT (3.9 FTA), 1.9 AST, 6.2 REB, 1.0 BLK, 1.7 STL, 2.3 TOV

Player B (18-year-old freshman):
33.3 MPG, 17.6 PPG, 46% FG (14.7 FGA), 34.6 3P% (4.5 3PA), 69.2% FT (3.6 FTA), 1.3 AST, 7.2 REB, 1.3 BLK, 1.0 STL, 2.0 TOV

Who is Player A? I’d take his statline over Ace because of the 3P% & stocks but curious who it is.

[76ciology]

Player A (18-year-old freshman):
34.6 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 47% FG (10.4 FGA), 44.7% 3P (4.1 3PA), 69.7% FT (3.9 FTA), 1.9 AST, 6.2 REB, 1.0 BLK, 1.7 STL, 2.3 TOV

Player B (18-year-old freshman):
33.3 MPG, 17.6 PPG, 46% FG (14.7 FGA), 34.6 3P% (4.5 3PA), 69.2% FT (3.6 FTA), 1.3 AST, 7.2 REB, 1.3 BLK, 1.0 STL, 2.0 TOV

Just looking at the stats alone:

Player A

He averaged almost 1.4 points per shot compared to 1.2, with a higher FTr, higher 3PTr, and clearly better shooting upside.

Defensively, I also think 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game is a more promising profile than just 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks.

Does not tell the entire picture. Need to know the archetype. Not points are equal. Is he getting it just merely on transition or creation?

[ProcessDoctor]

Player A (18-year-old freshman):
34.6 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 47% FG (10.4 FGA), 44.7% 3P (4.1 3PA), 69.7% FT (3.9 FTA), 1.9 AST, 6.2 REB, 1.0 BLK, 1.7 STL, 2.3 TOV

Player B (18-year-old freshman):
33.3 MPG, 17.6 PPG, 46% FG (14.7 FGA), 34.6 3P% (4.5 3PA), 69.2% FT (3.6 FTA), 1.3 AST, 7.2 REB, 1.3 BLK, 1.0 STL, 2.0 TOV

Just looking at the stats alone:

Player A

He averaged almost 1.4 points per shot compared to 1.2, with a higher FTr, higher 3PTr, and clearly better shooting upside.

Defensively, I also think 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game is a more promising profile than just 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks.

Does not tell the entire picture. Need to know the archetype. Not points are equal. Is he getting it just merely on transition or creation?

Player A is Paul George’s freshman season at Fresno State.

If we’re gonna get hung up on 3.9 FTA in 34.6 MPG vs 3.6 FTA in 33.3 MPG then the anti-Ace crowd truly can’t be convinced.

Edit: also, now STOCKs in the form of steals are more important than blocks? This is becoming dishonest.

[76ciology]

Player A (18-year-old freshman):
34.6 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 47% FG (10.4 FGA), 44.7% 3P (4.1 3PA), 69.7% FT (3.9 FTA), 1.9 AST, 6.2 REB, 1.0 BLK, 1.7 STL, 2.3 TOV

Player B (18-year-old freshman):
33.3 MPG, 17.6 PPG, 46% FG (14.7 FGA), 34.6 3P% (4.5 3PA), 69.2% FT (3.6 FTA), 1.3 AST, 7.2 REB, 1.3 BLK, 1.0 STL, 2.0 TOV

Just looking at the stats alone:

Player A

He averaged almost 1.4 points per shot compared to 1.2, with a higher FTr, higher 3PTr, and clearly better shooting upside.

Defensively, I also think 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game is a more promising profile than just 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks.

Does not tell the entire picture. Need to know the archetype. Not points are equal. Is he getting it just merely on transition or creation?

Player A is Paul George’s freshman season at Fresno State.

If we’re gonna get hung up on 3.9 FTA in 34.6 MPG vs 3.6 FTA in 33.3 MPG then the anti-Ace crowd truly can’t be convinced.

Oh, its not just the FTA. Low efficiency (shot 53 TS% vs 58% for PG). Poor shot diet (low 3pt and FT volume). Is a bad passer (only 8 ast%). He’s inefficient black hole scorer with low feel for the game.

Im over Ace Bailey. I think a lot of it is covered in the other thread.

I dont consider him an option at all.

[ProcessDoctor]

Just looking at the stats alone:

Player A

He averaged almost 1.4 points per shot compared to 1.2, with a higher FTr, higher 3PTr, and clearly better shooting upside.

Defensively, I also think 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game is a more promising profile than just 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks.

Does not tell the entire picture. Need to know the archetype. Not points are equal. Is he getting it just merely on transition or creation?

Player A is Paul George’s freshman season at Fresno State.

If we’re gonna get hung up on 3.9 FTA in 34.6 MPG vs 3.6 FTA in 33.3 MPG then the anti-Ace crowd truly can’t be convinced.

Oh, its not just the FTA. Low efficiency (shot 53 TS% vs 58% for PG). Poor shot diet (low 3pt and FT volume). Is a bad passer (only 8 ast%). He’s inefficient black hole scorer with low feel for the game.

Im over Ace Bailey. I think a lot of it is covered in the other thread.

I dont consider him an option at all.

It’s a good thing Ace would be on an NBA team with Maxey, George, and Embiid who would prevent him from thinking he’s prime Kobe on our team.

As for inefficiency, I’d hope you’re also calling Paul George’s freshman season inefficient as well. Can’t have it both ways.

[76ciology]

Player A (18-year-old freshman):
34.6 MPG, 14.3 PPG, 47% FG (10.4 FGA), 44.7% 3P (4.1 3PA), 69.7% FT (3.9 FTA), 1.9 AST, 6.2 REB, 1.0 BLK, 1.7 STL, 2.3 TOV

Player B (18-year-old freshman):
33.3 MPG, 17.6 PPG, 46% FG (14.7 FGA), 34.6 3P% (4.5 3PA), 69.2% FT (3.6 FTA), 1.3 AST, 7.2 REB, 1.3 BLK, 1.0 STL, 2.0 TOV

Just looking at the stats alone:

Player A

He averaged almost 1.4 points per shot compared to 1.2, with a higher FTr, higher 3PTr, and clearly better shooting upside.

Defensively, I also think 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game is a more promising profile than just 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks.

Does not tell the entire picture. Need to know the archetype. Not points are equal. Is he getting it just merely on transition or creation?

Player A is Paul George’s freshman season at Fresno State.

If we’re gonna get hung up on 3.9 FTA in 34.6 MPG vs 3.6 FTA in 33.3 MPG then the anti-Ace crowd truly can’t be convinced.

Edit: also, now STOCKs in the form of steals are more important than blocks? This is becoming dishonest.

No, I’m specifically referring to defensive profile.

A player averaging 1.7 steals per game is top 10 in the league, like Tari Eason.
A player averaging 1.3 blocks per game is around top 20, like Yves Missi.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional?SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=A&sort=BLK

You could also argue that steals are more valuable than blocks, since a steal results in an extra possession. A block, on the other hand, is often no more impactful than a shot deterred without actually getting a hand on it.

[76ciology]

Player A is Paul George’s freshman season at Fresno State.

If we’re gonna get hung up on 3.9 FTA in 34.6 MPG vs 3.6 FTA in 33.3 MPG then the anti-Ace crowd truly can’t be convinced.

Oh, its not just the FTA. Low efficiency (shot 53 TS% vs 58% for PG). Poor shot diet (low 3pt and FT volume). Is a bad passer (only 8 ast%). He’s inefficient black hole scorer with low feel for the game.

Im over Ace Bailey. I think a lot of it is covered in the other thread.

I dont consider him an option at all.

It’s a good thing Ace would be on an NBA team with Maxey, George, and Embiid who would prevent him from thinking he’s prime Kobe on our team.

As for inefficiency, I’d hope you’re also calling Paul George’s freshman season inefficient as well. Can’t have it both ways.

Freshman season
Paul George 58TS%
Ace Bailey 53TS%

I already posted it earlier

[ProcessDoctor]

Oh, its not just the FTA. Low efficiency (shot 53 TS% vs 58% for PG). Poor shot diet (low 3pt and FT volume). Is a bad passer (only 8 ast%). He’s inefficient black hole scorer with low feel for the game.

Im over Ace Bailey. I think a lot of it is covered in the other thread.

I dont consider him an option at all.

It’s a good thing Ace would be on an NBA team with Maxey, George, and Embiid who would prevent him from thinking he’s prime Kobe on our team.

As for inefficiency, I’d hope you’re also calling Paul George’s freshman season inefficient as well. Can’t have it both ways.

Freshman season
Paul George 58TS%
Ace Bailey 53TS%

Ah, so at 18 years old, that’s the difference between being a multi-time all-star/MVP candidate and complete scrub.

Ignore everything else. Got it.

[Stanford]

This **** is borderline numerology

[76ciology]

It’s a good thing Ace would be on an NBA team with Maxey, George, and Embiid who would prevent him from thinking he’s prime Kobe on our team.

As for inefficiency, I’d hope you’re also calling Paul George’s freshman season inefficient as well. Can’t have it both ways.

Freshman season
Paul George 58TS%
Ace Bailey 53TS%

Ah, so at 18 years old, that’s the difference between being a multi-time all-star/MVP candidate and complete scrub.

Ignore everything else. Got it.

Well, i already responded to the defensive profile aspect.

PG also is a better passer at 12 ast%, and went as high as 22% on his second year.

INEFFICIENT BLACKHOLE SCORER

[76ciology]

Although Jaku’s raw %’s don’t show a high level shooter, plenty of indicators do and context is needed. Jakucionis was shooting 41% from 3 pre injury; along with boasting a high FT%.

Jaku has a variety of ways to get a shot off, whether it be with a stepback 3 (67/171 attempts this season), drive and stop, and going in different directions. Jaku made 35.8% of his stepback 3’s, going 12/23 on “side step backs”.