The Ace Bailey Thread

[wilson115]

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[JDR720]

floor vs ceiling; risk vs reward

out of ace, vj, kon, tre who has highest/lowest floor and highest/lowest ceiling
exercise. on scale 1 to 10. 1 being out of league in 3 years, 10 being future all-nba, 5 is average starter. what is everyone's range 3-5 years from now.

key
1 = out of league in 3 years
2 = end of bench / bouncing around league
3 = end of rotation
4 = solid rotation guy
5 = avg starter
6 = high level starter
7 = borderline all-star
8 = consistent all-star
9 = all nba
10 = mvp level

rought thoughts

floor/ceiling

ace = 3 to 9
vj = 5 to 8
tre = 4 to 8
kon = 5 to 7

agree or disagree?

Ace - 2/9. Low floor because of his potential maturity issues and can he play a role that isn't ball dominant? Likes midrange jumpers in a league that largely doesn't. Of these guys, he needs to rework his game the most.
VJ - 4-8. Should at least be a good defender off the bench. Bigger Davion Mitchell or something like that, better Oladipo on the high end. Jaylen Brown/ Jaylin Williams maxed out. (probably spelled wrong, the guy on OKC)
Tre 3-8. If he can't defend or get to the rim, he's a 3pt specialist whose a bad defender. If he can do one of those, he can be a Kemba-level All-Star.
Kon - 4-6. Don't know that he can be an All-Star (maybe one or two in the East) but I think he's a safe pick. Smart skilled players are safe, especially when they play both sides of the ball.

[JMAC3]

Stay with me here, but I think a lot of the Ace Bailey will be a bust talk is overstated. The reason people think he will be a bust is that he thinks he is better than he is, won't be able to handle the shocking news that he isn't a superstar at the next level and will not adjust his playstyle. Does this happen? How many guys are kicked out of the league because they are purposefully going rogue and playing losing basketball because they refuse to pass or refuse to take good shots?

How many previous examples are of this? If there are 5-10 I might take it seriously. However imo most guys bust in the NBA simply because they aren't talented enough and do not work hard enough. There is plenty of former top prospects that got to the NBA and weren't superstars and have turned into great role players.

Harrison Barnes (#1 ranked)
Jaden McDaniels (#7 ranked)
MPJ (#2 ranked)
Jabari Smith (#4 ranked)
Wiggins (#1 ranked)
Jonathan Issac (#7 ranked)
PJ Washington (#14 ranked)
Austin Rivers (#2 HS ranked).

Ace is still going to be 6'8'', good defender, good three point shooter if the handle/drive game never progress from where it is at age 18. Why can he not be an Obi Toppin, Rui Hachimura, Jabari Smith, Harrison Barnes type of player in those outcomes? Why is it immediately he is either awesome or out of the league in 3 years?

[HornetJail]

if we suffered through these last two years only to acquire Tidjane Salaun and [Harrison Barnes or PJ Washington], we are **** with a capital F

[fatlever]

one argument FOR ace - not to play next to miller - BUT to hedge against miller not developing much more, or his wrist injury really slowing his progress over next 2 yrs.

the argument for them together took a hit when ace's measurements came in lower - most likely pushing him to sf from potentially a pf, at least for his first 3-5 yrs.

i dont really like miller as a sg. i think miller needs to be a sf long term.

[JustBuzzin]

This Ace talk is fun, but I'm 90% confident the Sixers are taking him if they stay at #3.

The real debate should be Tre or VJ.


I'm leaning Tre tbh I desperately want another scorer and Tre seems like the best option after Ace.

I know it looks like I'm a VJ hater, but I'm not. I just view him specifically as a role player/fit guy. We need much more than a role player at this moment. We lack guys who can get their own bucket. Just look at this team when Melo is out. Nobody outside of Miles can get their own bucket. It's a major problem we will still have even if we draft VJ imo.

[Rich4114]

one argument FOR ace - not to play next to miller - BUT to hedge against miller not developing much more, or his wrist injury really slowing his progress over next 2 yrs.

the argument for them together took a hit when ace's measurements came in lower - most likely pushing him to sf from potentially a pf, at least for his first 3-5 yrs.

i dont really like miller as a sg. i think miller needs to be a sf long term.

I want Miller at SF. He's not a SG, no matter what anyone says. He is the prototypical SF IMO. I get that positions aren't as static as they used to be as well, so I'm sure we could make Ace work but get ready to watch our #4 pick come off the bench all season if that were to happen.

[fatlever]

one argument FOR ace - not to play next to miller - BUT to hedge against miller not developing much more, or his wrist injury really slowing his progress over next 2 yrs.

the argument for them together took a hit when ace's measurements came in lower - most likely pushing him to sf from potentially a pf, at least for his first 3-5 yrs.

i dont really like miller as a sg. i think miller needs to be a sf long term.

I want Miller at SF. He's not a SG, no matter what anyone says. He is the prototypical SF IMO. I get that positions aren't as static as they used to be as well, so I'm sure we could make Ace work but get ready to watch our #4 pick come off the bench all season if that were to happen.

right, he's a wing/forward... not a guard. never a guard.

[JMAC3]

if we suffered through these last two years only to acquire Tidjane Salaun and [Harrison Barnes or PJ Washington], we are **** with a capital F

I mean we are picking 4th, expecting that pick to be a franchise player is likely a big reach. However, Ace has about as good a shot of being that type of player you are going to get at 4 and as mentioned if not you still have a 6-8 guy who can shoot and defend. It is not like Ace is a 6-1 scorer and if he can't score he is useless. Guys that are Ace size that can shoot and defend will always have value in the NBA.

[JMAC3]

I have no issue with Brandon Miller being the 2. If you put him at the 3, he is the same height as the guys guarding him but probably lighter/weaker. If you play him at the 2 he is probably similar strength but taller than everyone.

I am never going to complain about being oversized at a position, Miller playmaking is already improving too. Tatum averaged 1.6 apg as a rookie, 2.1 in 2nd yr. Miller 2.4 as a rookie, 3.6 in the 2nd yr. -- you have to be patient with him as a primary ball handler, wings don't just figure that out in a year or 2 unless you are Luka.

[Bassman]

Ideally Miller should be a SF, but that assumes a few things. He will need to get stronger to defend well, screen, and handle tougher bigger defenders. I do think he can play the 2 but his D will suffer for it. It’s why VJ fits so well here, at least on paper. I do believe Ace can play with our current core.

From earlier post my take on floor and ceiling:

Ace - 4/9. A guy with this talent will at minimum be solid rotation, and that would be a surprisingly low. Even if he struggles early, he will adapt to be a reasonable starter IMO. Ceiling he could indeed be all NBA if everything comes together.
VJ - 4-8. Agree with this assessment, Possible All-Star ceiling but most likely a high level quality starter.
Tre 3-6. A number of elements have to come together for Tre but I really think his stretch best is high level starter. At worst he could be a microwave bench shooting specialist that never figures out/gives effort on D.
Kon - 4-7. I see a solid rotation player at minimum. Top reach could get an all-star nod once, but not perennially.

[JustBuzzin]

I have no issue with Brandon Miller being the 2. If you put him at the 3, he is the same height as the guys guarding him but probably lighter/weaker. If you play him at the 2 he is probably similar strength but taller than everyone.

I am never going to complain about being oversized at a position, Miller playmaking is already improving too. Tatum averaged 1.6 apg as a rookie, 2.1 in 2nd yr. Miller 2.4 as a rookie, 3.6 in the 2nd yr. -- you have to be patient with him as a primary ball handler, wings don't just figure that out in a year or 2 unless you are Luka.

Yeah I don't get the is he a 2 or 3 debate. They clearly want him playing the 2 so it is what it is.

That assist stat is pretty cool I would have never thought Miller averaged more assists than Tatum in their first 2 years. Gives me hope he can improve in that area of his game.

[fatlever]

I'm not sure why you assume they want Miller playing shooting guard. Josh Green effectively was the teams shooting guard last year. Positions are more about who you can defend

The positional size of Miller at shooting guard is a nice bonus but everything else is suboptimal. Who is defending that list of quick guards in the Eastern Conference if you have the lineup of Miller at 2:and ace at 3? Who else is putting pressure on the rim? It's certainly not coming from Miller or Ace who have proven to be very bad in that particular department so far in their careers. Who is going to be the secondary ball handler on the team? As I mentioned in a different thread that would fall to miles.

This lineup needs some more quickness and better ball handlers next to melo.. and most certainly someone who can defend the other teams quickest guard. And we desperately need more rim pressure.

Ace Miller solves none of that.

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[JustBuzzin]

Im fine either way. I don't really care if he plays 2 or 3. It's positionless basketball in today's era. I consider Miller a wing. He can play 2 or 3.

You say the lineup needs more quickness and ball handlers next to Melo. That seems like your guy should be Fears not VJ as he doesn't bring the ball handling/playmaking aspect you're looking for.

I view Ace as a scoring wing. If Miller goes down with injury we have a player who can do similar things at the wing. They can play together it's just not ideal because neither are great ball handlers. I think both have potential to get better in that area of their game. I just love the idea of having 2 long scoring wings for the future.

I'm on record I don't think Ace will be an option because Philly is most likely going to draft him imo.

[yosemiteben]

My soapbox - there is not a definable difference between 2s and 3s. Are Nesmith or Nembhard different because they play the 2 vs. 3? Brown or Tatum? Bridges or Anunoby? Castle or Vassell? Beal or Allen? Hield or Podziemski? Lavine or DeRozan?

Just seems like kind of an antiquated framework to say "he's not a 2, he's a 3."

[fatlever]

My soapbox - there is not a definable difference between 2s and 3s. Are Nesmith or Nembhard different because they play the 2 vs. 3? Brown or Tatum? Bridges or Anunoby? Castle or Vassell? Beal or Allen? Hield or Podziemski? Lavine or DeRozan?

Just seems like kind of an antiquated framework to say "he's not a 2, he's a 3."

But there's a difference between wings and guard/ball handlers.

Regardless, we need a poa defender and someone else who can put pressure on the rim. We need another ball handler. A lineup of Melo Miller Ace lacks a lot of those things.

Whether we are speaking positions or not, Ace and Miller have similar strengths and weaknesses. Ace as a small ball 4 alleviates some of that.

Agree or disagree

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[JMAC3]

Spoiler:

I'm not sure why you assume they want Miller playing shooting guard. Josh Green effectively was the teams shooting guard last year. Positions are more about who you can defend

The positional size of Miller at shooting guard is a nice bonus but everything else is suboptimal. Who is defending that list of quick guards in the Eastern Conference if you have the lineup of Miller at 2:and ace at 3? Who else is putting pressure on the rim? It's certainly not coming from Miller or Ace who have proven to be very bad in that particular department so far in their careers. Who is going to be the secondary ball handler on the team? As I mentioned in a different thread that would fall to miles.

This lineup needs some more quickness and better ball handlers next to melo.. and most certainly someone who can defend the other teams quickest guard. And we desperately need more rim pressure.

Ace Miller solves none of that.

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I think this all comes back to are you drafting BPA or are you drafting for fit.

This all assumes the starting lineup of the future is LaMelo-Miller-Ace-Miles-Mark, which sure isn't perfect on paper as players who all complement each other but unless the team is committed to making two other big moves along with the draft we are going to be bad anyways, let's just be honest. So good chance at least 1 if not 2 guys outside of Miller/Ace are traded and then we have a whole new fit formula moving forward.

What good does drafting VJ do if we are going to win 28 games with LaMelo-VJ-Miller-Miles-Mark and make no other improvements to the roster outside of the draft?

[JMAC3]

Also, I think drafting Ace he is going to be big enough to log minutes at the 4 or even mins at the 2 like Miller, so you can still get to lineups like

Melo- Green-Miller-Ace- Moussa
or
Melo-Ace-Miles-Tidjane-Grant

Is there every any lineups where you would feel like VJ can play point guard based on his tape or skillset? I view him more like Josh Green where yeah he can guard either the 1 or 2 but he can't play both positions on offense, so it less valuable.

[JustBuzzin]

Also, I think drafting Ace he is going to be big enough to log minutes at the 4 or even mins at the 2 like Miller, so you can still get to lineups like

Melo- Green-Miller-Ace- Moussa
or
Melo-Ace-Miles-Tidjane-Grant

Is there every any lineups where you would feel like VJ can play point guard based on his tape or skillset? I view him more like Josh Green where yeah he can guard either the 1 or 2 but he can't play both positions on offense, so it less valuable.

Do you think Ace will realistically be available?

I can't see why the Sixers would pass him up. They already loaded at the guard spot, seems like Ace makes the most sense for them.

[fatlever]

Also, I think drafting Ace he is going to be big enough to log minutes at the 4 or even mins at the 2 like Miller, so you can still get to lineups like

Melo- Green-Miller-Ace- Moussa
or
Melo-Ace-Miles-Tidjane-Grant

Is there every any lineups where you would feel like VJ can play point guard based on his tape or skillset? I view him more like Josh Green where yeah he can guard either the 1 or 2 but he can't play both positions on offense, so it less valuable.

Do you think Ace will realistically be available?

I can't see why the Sixers would pass him up. They already loaded at the guard spot, seems like Ace makes the most sense for them.

devils advocate for why ace might not go 3rd
- sixers trade pick for win-now help, or move back. new team picking 3 passes on ace for tre/vj
- sixers loaded at guard, with scorers, but dont have a vj style energy demon
- morey falls in love with kon's analytics
- teams arent as high on ace as draft bloggers

but i dont see why they would pick tre over ace. agree on that.