2026 FRP swap details

[Skybox]

NOBODY seems to have their head wrapped around this... lets try to collectively get it straight:

"WAS has the right to swap its 2026 1st round pick, protected for selections 9-30, for PHX's 2026 1st round pick; ORL then has the right to swap its 2026 1st round pick for the less favorable of the PHX pick and the WAS pick if conveyable; MEM then has the right to swap its 2026 1st round pick for the least / less favorable of the PHX pick, the WAS pick if conveyable and the ORL pick and CHA will receive the least favorable of these; if the WAS pick is not conveyable, then the commitment to WAS will be lifted and ORL will instead have the right to swap its pick for the PHX pick (via PHX to CHA)"

I've read 10 explanantions and ...I guess I'm just tired. This could be Weltman's best move...I'd still consider offering it in trade this summer, but it's a BIG chip

My read
...WAS ONLY has swap rights IF PHX pick is 9th or later...if that conveys to WAS, then ORL has the option to swap their own pick for WAS's
...If the PHX pick lands 1-8, ORL has the right to a direct swap and WAS isn't in the equation.

anyone see it differently?

[Knightro]

NOBODY seems to have their head wrapped around this... lets try to collectively get it straight:

"WAS has the right to swap its 2026 1st round pick, protected for selections 9-30, for PHX's 2026 1st round pick; ORL then has the right to swap its 2026 1st round pick for the less favorable of the PHX pick and the WAS pick if conveyable; MEM then has the right to swap its 2026 1st round pick for the least / less favorable of the PHX pick, the WAS pick if conveyable and the ORL pick and CHA will receive the least favorable of these; if the WAS pick is not conveyable, then the commitment to WAS will be lifted and ORL will instead have the right to swap its pick for the PHX pick (via PHX to CHA)"

I've read 10 explanantions and ...I guess I'm just tired. This could be Weltman's best move...I'd still consider offering it in trade this summer, but it's a BIG chip

My read
...WAS ONLY has swap rights IF PHX pick is 9th or later...if that conveys to WAS, then ORL has the option to swap their own pick for WAS's
...If the PHX pick lands 1-8, ORL has the right to a direct swap and WAS isn't in the equation.

anyone see it differently?

Wizards have the right to swap with the Suns provided the Wizards own pick is inside the top 10. If it's not, they owe that pick to the Knicks.

The Magic then have the right to swap next, either with the Suns directly or with the Wizards after they have already swapped with the Suns.

[Idiosyncratic]

My understanding is that if the Suns pick is better than the Wizards the Wizards can swap. The Wizards only lose their right to swap if they pick 9 or worse. I believe the Wizards outright lose their pick to the Knicks if they pick 9 or worse. Don't consider this option, it very very likely isn't happening. Maybe if they got Flagg?

We get next chance to swap. Wizards pick 8, Suns pick 1 then the Wizards would get 1 and we would get 8.

[Knightro]

My understanding is that if the Suns pick is better than the Wizards the Wizards can swap. The Wizards only lose their right to swap if they pick 9 or worse. I believe the Wizards outright lose their pick to the Knicks if they pick 9 or worse. Don't consider this option, it very very likely isn't happening. Maybe if they got Flagg?

We get next chance to swap. Wizards pick 8, Suns pick 1 then the Wizards would get 1 and we would get 8.

Ok now that I've re-read it... you are correct. The Wizards pick is technically protected 9-30 in the hypothetical swap with the Suns because they owe their 2026 1st to the Knicks top 10 protected.

Basically if you're the Magic, you want the Wizards to be awful and the Suns to be *slightly* less awful.

Best case scenario for the Magic would be the Wizards ending up with the 1st pick and the Suns ending up with the 2nd pick and the Magic then swap up from wherever to 2nd.

[Knightro]

The good news for Orlando is that this swap is very likely going to end up being a highly valuable asset for them, either as a trade chip or as a player to add to the roster.

Both Washington and Phoenix are unlikely to be good in 2025-2026. The Magic should be better than both of them and should be able to swap up into the lotto from outside the lotto.

[ORLMagicGirl15]

You should not be allowed to trade the same draft pick to multiple teams. I still don’t get it but whatever, we’ll either have a second draft pick or not in 2026.

[eyriq]

True or false

Wizards pick is top 8 protected. If they pick > 8 Knicks get their pick and they lose swap rights. If they lose swap rights we have exclusive swap rights with the Suns. If the Wizards pick < 8, they get first swap rights and we get leftovers.

Edit: meant Wizards not Suns lol

[Idiosyncratic]

True or false

Wizards pick is top 8 protected. If they pick > 8 Knicks get their pick and they lose swap rights. If they lose swap rights we have exclusive swap rights with the Suns. If the Suns pick < 8, they get first swap rights and we get leftovers.

This is correct, except simplify the last part, we just simply get the worst of the two picks (Suns/Wizards). I can't see the Wizards picking worse than 8, they will do everything in their power not to. Cooper Flagg maybe was our only hope, even then, they still would have tried hard to keep that pick.

We just need the Suns to be bad. Very possible, but they could also move KD for pieces that end up fitting better and Beal is magically healthy and be OK, or they could even be OK with KD. But it is a pretty good chance at a pick upgrade even if marginal. And there is that non-zero chance that it ends up being something crazy like top 5.

* And I see your edit, yes that is correct.

[pepe1991]

You should not be allowed to trade the same draft pick to multiple teams. I still don’t get it but whatever, we’ll either have a second draft pick or not in 2026.

Because Suns will still have 1st overall pick in a draft.
It will just be whatever is left from all the Wizards, Magic, Grizzlies swaps.

[Skybox]

Wow still fuzzy...yes or no?
-ORLGirl, I don't think we have a second frp under any circumstances, just swap rights for a better pick
-Scenario1...If WAS has the 7th pick and PHX has the 3rd and we have the 27th...we end up with #7 (because WAS grabs PHX pick)
-Scenario2...If WAS has the 10th pick and PHX has the 1st pick and we have the 25th pick...we get #1 because WAS loses their #10 to CHA
-Scenario3...If WAS has the 5th pick and PHX has the 11th pick and we have the 28th pick ...we get the 11th pick, WAS doesn't swap

do I have it?

savvy?

[MartinsIzAfraud]

True or false

Wizards pick is top 8 protected. If they pick > 8 Knicks get their pick and they lose swap rights. If they lose swap rights we have exclusive swap rights with the Suns. If the Suns pick < 8, they get first swap rights and we get leftovers.

This is correct, except simplify the last part, we just simply get the worst of the two picks (Suns/Wizards). I can't see the Wizards picking worse than 8, they will do everything in their power not to. Cooper Flagg maybe was our only hope, even then, they still would have tried hard to keep that pick.

We just need the Suns to be bad. Very possible, but they could also move KD for pieces that end up fitting better and Beal is magically healthy and be OK, or they could even be OK with KD. But it is a pretty good chance at a pick upgrade even if marginal. And there is that non-zero chance that it ends up being something crazy like top 5.

* And I see your edit, yes that is correct.

that's my worry is that Phoenix somehow finds a way to be competitive with KD Trade and other random ****. Hopefully this FO is smart enough to trade that pick at it's highest perceived value aka this summer while Suns roster is ****.

[Knightro]

True or false

Wizards pick is top 8 protected. If they pick > 8 Knicks get their pick and they lose swap rights. If they lose swap rights we have exclusive swap rights with the Suns. If the Suns pick < 8, they get first swap rights and we get leftovers.

This is correct, except simplify the last part, we just simply get the worst of the two picks (Suns/Wizards). I can't see the Wizards picking worse than 8, they will do everything in their power not to. Cooper Flagg maybe was our only hope, even then, they still would have tried hard to keep that pick.

We just need the Suns to be bad. Very possible, but they could also move KD for pieces that end up fitting better and Beal is magically healthy and be OK, or they could even be OK with KD. But it is a pretty good chance at a pick upgrade even if marginal. And there is that non-zero chance that it ends up being something crazy like top 5.

* And I see your edit, yes that is correct.

that's my worry is that Phoenix somehow finds a way to be competitive with KD Trade and other random ****. Hopefully this FO is smart enough to trade that pick at it's highest perceived value aka this summer while Suns roster is ****.

I’m not moving the 2026 swap unless it’s for a legitimate all-star.

The odds are too high that’s gonna be a top 10 pick for me to move it for a whatever player.

I don’t really see how Phoenix is good this upcoming year. They’re not going to get anything close to equal value for Durant on an expiring deal and Beal is mentally checked out.

They're one Booker injury away from being maybe the worst team in the league (assuming they do punt Durant).

[Skybox]

Still trying for some certainty...but it DOES seem that this pick is ORL's biggest trade chip...probably more valued than #16 & #25 put together, no?

this pick could be the key to a bigger trade target like D. White or Reaves or all kinds of higher-level guys than we generally discuss as realistic.

or, we could make other improvements, move into the Top 4 in the East and then watch next year's lottery, OKC-style and grab another high draft pick.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

This is correct, except simplify the last part, we just simply get the worst of the two picks (Suns/Wizards). I can't see the Wizards picking worse than 8, they will do everything in their power not to. Cooper Flagg maybe was our only hope, even then, they still would have tried hard to keep that pick.

We just need the Suns to be bad. Very possible, but they could also move KD for pieces that end up fitting better and Beal is magically healthy and be OK, or they could even be OK with KD. But it is a pretty good chance at a pick upgrade even if marginal. And there is that non-zero chance that it ends up being something crazy like top 5.

* And I see your edit, yes that is correct.

that's my worry is that Phoenix somehow finds a way to be competitive with KD Trade and other random ****. Hopefully this FO is smart enough to trade that pick at it's highest perceived value aka this summer while Suns roster is ****.

I’m not moving the 2026 swap unless it’s for a legitimate all-star.

The odds are too high that’s gonna be a top 10 pick for me to move it for a whatever player.

I don’t really see how Phoenix is good this upcoming year. They’re not going to get anything close to equal value for Durant on an expiring deal and Beal is mentally checked out.

They're one Booker injury away from being maybe the worst team in the league (assuming they do punt Durant).

Not saying move it for a whatever player, I'm with you I'm trying to hit a triple here first and foremost. We've got the salaries to do that it's just up to Weltman to work for once and see what's available.

[eyriq]

Still trying for some certainty...but it DOES seem that this pick is ORL's biggest trade chip...probably more valued than #16 & #25 put together, no?

this pick could be the key to a bigger trade target like D. White or Reaves or all kinds of higher-level guys than we generally discuss as realistic.

or, we could make other improvements, move into the Top 4 in the East and then watch next year's lottery, OKC-style and grab another high draft pick.

I'd say this pick is worth a high-quality starter, the #16 is worth a starter, and the #24 is worth a key rotation player.

1 - low tier super-star
2-3 - perennial all-star
4-5 - low-tier all-star
6-10 - high-quality starter
11-14 - quality-starter
15-20 - starter
21-30 - key rotation players

[BadMofoPimp]

Wow still fuzzy...yes or no?
-ORLGirl, I don't think we have a second frp under any circumstances, just swap rights for a better pick
-Scenario1...If WAS has the 7th pick and PHX has the 3rd and we have the 27th...we end up with #7 (because WAS grabs PHX pick)
-Scenario2...If WAS has the 10th pick and PHX has the 1st pick and we have the 25th pick...we get #1 because WAS loses their #10 to CHA
-Scenario3...If WAS has the 5th pick and PHX has the 11th pick and we have the 28th pick ...we get the 11th pick, WAS doesn't swap

do I have it?

savvy?

I just don't see any scenario where Washington is still not one of the worst teams in the league. It is like they are trying to lose every year. Don't even see them being a threat in Free Agency as they rarely target anyone. I feel bad for Wizards fans for paying for players like Smart, Middleton and Poole while none of them are capable of leading a team to a better record.

[drsd]

1 - low tier super-star
2-3 - perennial all-star
4-5 - low-tier all-star
6-10 - high-quality starter
11-14 - quality-starter
15-20 - starter
21-30 - key rotation players

Lot's of statistical analysis exists on the web here. You are mostly correct for 1-5; but in general, from 6 the pick value drops like a stone.
6-14 is more in the high bench range.
15-30 is more in the rotational to scrub range.

On average.

p.s. and all rookies always suck. Orlando should not be keeping the #16 nor the #25, in my opinion. The Magic does not need "the next Jett Howard or Tristan da Silva".

[eyriq]

1 - low tier super-star
2-3 - perennial all-star
4-5 - low-tier all-star
6-10 - high-quality starter
11-14 - quality-starter
15-20 - starter
21-30 - key rotation players

Lot's of statistical analysis exists on the web here. You are mostly correct for 1-5; but in general, from 6 the pick value drops like a stone.
6-14 is more in the high bench range.
15-30 is more in the rotational to scrub range.

On average.

p.s. and all rookies always suck. Orlando should not be keeping the #16 nor the #25, in my opinion. The Magic does not need "the next Jett Howard or Tristan da Silva".

Review trades and let me know what you find

[MasterGMer]

I didn't know Magic has a future here in 2026. Very good news to hear. It changes a lot of things and decisions FO wants to do, I promise you

[Jiwol]

I didn't know Magic has a future here in 2026. Very good news to hear. It changes a lot of things and decisions FO wants to do, I promise you

Please change your handle already...