2025 NBA Draft (2)

[Negrodamus]

It's a good thing we have the 3rd draft pick in the draft where 3-10 are chock full of flaw prospects.

Even better to have 35 when all of the depth in this draft announced they were returning to college today.

Read on Twitter

The most Sixers **** ever.

[Negrodamus]

The FTr discussion has had me thinking, so I looked at the guys who made an All-NBA team this year. Of the 15 guys who made it, 7 were below 0.300 FTr for the season.

Mitchell, Mobley, Curry, LeBron, Haliburton, Cunningham, and J. Williams were below that threshold.

Tatum was at exactly .300 and Edwards was at .308, but has a career FTr of .276.

Even though it's a misinterpretation of the stats, I'll play along.

Peep their playoff FTr when the jumpshots are harder to come by, and, you know, the game is most important:

Edwards: .296 FTr
Tatum: .309 FTr
Cunningham: .326 FTr
Mitchell: .459 FTr
LeBron: .455 FTr

Haliburton: .238 FTr
Williams: .255 FTr
Curry: .215 FTr

Haliburton has always been a unique case and is obviously more the exception, not the rule. Jalen Williams is more off ball than a typical superstar like the ones above. Curry is also unique and is the greatest shooter to ever walk the earth, so he finds a way to get his shot off.

[Negrodamus]

Just watching this OKC vs Min game and seeing Terrence Shannon out there. Not that it matters, because it really doesn't, but VJ Edgecombe 100% could not play in this game. He is just way too clueless on defense to not be totally exposed over and over again. It would be a tall ask for a lot of these guys: Tre, probably Kasparas. Malauch definitely couldn't play a minute right now.

I think Ace could maybe play purely as a role player if he put on weight and completely cut out any freelancing with the ball. CMB would also be playable as there would be no real expectation to score.

[Black Mage]

The FTr discussion has had me thinking, so I looked at the guys who made an All-NBA team this year. Of the 15 guys who made it, 7 were below 0.300 FTr for the season.

Mitchell, Mobley, Curry, LeBron, Haliburton, Cunningham, and J. Williams were below that threshold.

Tatum was at exactly .300 and Edwards was at .308, but has a career FTr of .276.

Like any stat, it can be misleading without context. You need to marry a stat to what you see on the court. We've seen low FTR players that when you watch them they drive to the lane but fade away or try to avoid contact which then results in a lower at rim success.

You could have a guy with a high FTR which seems great until you realize they're getting that by barreling into the paint trying to draw fouls and looking less to score or worse getting exposed to turnovers.

My take on Ace, and this applies equally to Tre, is they were two guys that were comfortable pulling up in the midrange because they could and they felt that was a better shot than trying to ram into a defensive wall. Why enter the double or triple team trap waiting for them and risk a turnover or a blocked shot or a bad off balance shot at the rim when they can just pull up and shoot the midrange.

Watching enough Ace tape you can see his plan of action was to get to his spot or open space in the midrange rather than attack the 2 defenders stationed behind his man waiting for him. This lead to a lot of lateral motion rather than straight-line drives.

Some might ask, but why didn't Kon do this? Because he had the benefit that if he drove and got trapped by the defense he could just throw the ball high into the air and let the monster Maluach snatch it and slam it. Neither Tre or Ace had any such outlet valve that if they got in trouble forcing a drive they had an easy lob target. Somerville, the "center" on Rutgers, was awful and half the time he ended up stumbling to the floor. I'm not even kidding about that, watch 24 on the tape in Ace's vids and you often see him literally stumbling, losing his balance or outright falling backwards to the floor after tripping over his own feet.

[Negrodamus]

I'm warming up to CMB quite a bit. I could be talked into him being a top 5 pick. Need to watch more perimeter defense from him, but I don't think that shot is a lost cause. 77% FT in Feb and March. The form isn't great, but it doesn't look like MKG bad. Has good vision and deceptively good handle. Defense appears to be elite, but I was also told VJ was too. I'll keep watching.

[Black Mage]

I think on/off is a bit misleading for Ace since the consensus is that Rutgers was essentially a JV team with a brain dead coach. I’m glad the numbers show impact there but context is important.

I’m finding Ace very difficult to evaluate because of the whole Rutgers situation. I can’t decide if it a bad thing that makes me want to avoid him or something that makes me comfortable ignoring some of his statistical blemishes.

I think it does give us some valuable information. First, let's make this statement as our baseline, Ace had a disappointing offensive season at Rutgers. If he performed as expected we wouldn't even be having these debates. With that being said, the on/off numbers suggest Bailey impacted the game positively on defense.

Second, the drastic difference in the on/off does indicate that even in a year where Ace didn't scorch it on offense all season long; he was still able to provide a significant positive for the immense offensive load he was asked to carry at Rutgers.

Ace is probably one of the hardest players I've tried to evaluate, but the on/off numbers do suggest that he overall is a good player that positively affected his team's performance. What we're all left trying to figure out is does the situation at Rutgers explain why Ace didn't meet the lofty expectations placed on him going into the season.

[Black Mage]

Just watching this OKC vs Min game and seeing Terrence Shannon out there. Not that it matters, because it really doesn't, but VJ Edgecombe 100% could not play in this game. He is just way too clueless on defense to not be totally exposed over and over again. It would be a tall ask for a lot of these guys: Tre, probably Kasparas. Malauch definitely couldn't play a minute right now.

I think Ace could maybe play purely as a role player if he put on weight and completely cut out any freelancing with the ball. CMB would also be playable as there would be no real expectation to score.

A lot of those players on OKC were just as clueless when they first started and also in last year's playoffs. This is why Bodner's desire to "maximize current contention window" is so utterly stupid and short-sighted that I'm shocked he even said it.

OKC, Boston, Pacers are masterclasses on finding guys that fit into the roster to allow them to get playing time as fast as possible so they can gain experience and polish up their IQ and processing. Skills are things that should be worked on a little bit during the season and the majority of it in the off-season.

[Da Doctor]

It's a good thing we have the 3rd draft pick in the draft where 3-10 are chock full of flaw prospects.

Even better to have 35 when all of the depth in this draft announced they were returning to college today.

Read on Twitter

The most Sixers **** ever.

As opposed to not having a pick, right?

[Negrodamus]

It's a good thing we have the 3rd draft pick in the draft where 3-10 are chock full of flaw prospects.

Even better to have 35 when all of the depth in this draft announced they were returning to college today.

Read on Twitter

The most Sixers **** ever.

As opposed to not having a pick, right?

That's a completely separate thought from what I was saying.

[Black Mage]

It's a good thing we have the 3rd draft pick in the draft where 3-10 are chock full of flaw prospects.

Even better to have 35 when all of the depth in this draft announced they were returning to college today.

Read on Twitter

The most Sixers **** ever.

Not many drafts where picks 3+ don't have some kind of flaw. Looking on the bright side, the only reason we're all struggling to figure this out is b/c there are so many guys with strengths and good traits that we're left arguing over which flaw scares us more. Even Dwayne Wade had flaws in his draft scouting report. Imagine having pick 3 in 2003 and fighting over Carmelo (no defense), Bosh (raw) and Wade (short no outside shot).

The reality is, there's a lot of good things that VJ, Tre, Ace, Kon all bring to the table; very few 18 and 19 yr olds are polished studs. I said it early on, none of us are going to have the critical "intangibles" information that the team will get from speaking to coaches and doing private interviews and workouts. Who we pick at 3 very likely comes down to which prospect presents the best "intangibles" to Morey and the team.

[Negrodamus]

I'm warming up to CMB quite a bit. I could be talked into him being a top 5 pick. Need to watch more perimeter defense from him, but I don't think that shot is a lost cause. 77% FT in Feb and March. The form isn't great, but it doesn't look like MKG bad. Has good vision and deceptively good handle. Defense appears to be elite, but I was also told VJ was too. I'll keep watching.

I could 100% trade back a few spots to get a few more assets and just take CMB.

He might be the best defensive player in the top 10 with insane switchability on PnR. Plays a type of game that is sorely missing from our team. The athleticism/size to defend 1-5, the effort to go after rebounds on both sides of the court, and the instincts to generate 2.7 STL% and 4.9 BLK%.

Along with that, he scores 19.8 ppg per 36 minutes which is very impressive for a "defensive prospect". 21.1 AST%. Major all around game. Plays a bit loose last year, but was on the worst supporting cast of anyone in the top 10.

Maxey
Grimes
PG
CMB
Embiid

I can justify reaching for him if his ceiling is Draymond Green. That's as high as anyone else's ceiling in this draft and would also fill a gigantic need culturally and on the court.

[Mik317]

he is a non shooter

like doesn't even take shots

I have ptsd about that

[zaz102]

I wanted to do some analysis on Ace's profile based on the stats that made me interested in Ace (height, 3 point shooting, rebounding, and blocks). I compared this to the FTR and AST% that Negrodamus brought up which IMO makes sense to take into consideration. It does make me less confident in Ace, but I still might pick him as the other options don't jump off the page to me. I might do a similar analysis if I start leaning toward someone else.

Freshmen from High Major Conferences

Height ≥ 6’6”
3PA ≥ 100 / 3% ≥ 30%
DREB% ≥ 10%
BLK ≥ 1%

Ace Bailey (For Reference)
Height = 6’9”
3PA = 136 / 3P% = 34.6%
DREB% = 17.5%
BLK ≥ 4%


Notable Players with AST% ≥ 10%, FTR ≥ 30%

Cade Cunningham
Jayson Tatum
Paolo Banchero
Jabari Smith
Jaden McDaniels
Brandon Miller
Brandon Ingram
RJ Barrett
Chet Holmgren
Paul George

Notable Players with AST% ≥ 10%, FTR ≤
30%

Lonzo Ball
Aaron Nesmith
Miles Bridges
Klay Thompson
Joe Harris

Notable Players with AST% ≤ 10%, FTR ≥
30%

Andrew Wiggins
Lauri Markkanen

Notable Players with AST% ≤ 10%, FTR ≤
30%

Harrison Barnes
Terrence Ross
Sam Hauser
Saddiq Bey
Franz Wagner
Max Christie
Trey Murphy


Probably worth noting that in the list Ace was one of the best at rebounding and blocking, but pretty low on the list for 3P%.

[Negrodamus]

he is a non shooter

like doesn't even take shots

I have ptsd about that

He took 34 3FG this year. That's 31 more 3FGA than Ben took in his one year at LSU. I think he is a more willing shooter than you'd think.

He's also 30/76 39.5% on 2FG jumpers. There's potential there and the form isn't completely jacked up like Ben's.

I just see his path to success much easier than most of these guys tbh.

[Black Mage]

he is a non shooter

like doesn't even take shots

I have ptsd about that

He took 34 3FG this year. That's 31 more 3FGA than Ben took in his one year at LSU. I think he is a more willing shooter than you'd think.

He's also 30/76 39.5% on 2FG jumpers. There's potential there and the form isn't completely jacked up like Ben's.

I just see his path to success much easier than most of these guys tbh.

If we traded back and took CMB; I would quit being a Sixers fan and become a Celtics, Knicks, Nets or even a blasted Raptors fan just so I could watch a divisional team kick the Sixers' a** as the Sixers wasted the prime of another star player trying to play a guy who can't shoot and their offense ends up 4 on 5.

[Negrodamus]

he is a non shooter

like doesn't even take shots

I have ptsd about that

He took 34 3FG this year. That's 31 more 3FGA than Ben took in his one year at LSU. I think he is a more willing shooter than you'd think.

He's also 30/76 39.5% on 2FG jumpers. There's potential there and the form isn't completely jacked up like Ben's.

I just see his path to success much easier than most of these guys tbh.

If we traded back and took CMB; I would quit being a Sixers fan and become a Celtics, Knicks, Nets or even a blasted Raptors fan just so I could watch a divisional team kick the Sixers' a** as the Sixers wasted the prime of another star player trying to play a guy who can't shoot and their offense ends up 4 on 5.

That's fair. As much as I wish I could, I probably won't do that when we take a guy who I think will be a fine role player at #3.

[Black Mage]

He took 34 3FG this year. That's 31 more 3FGA than Ben took in his one year at LSU. I think he is a more willing shooter than you'd think.

He's also 30/76 39.5% on 2FG jumpers. There's potential there and the form isn't completely jacked up like Ben's.

I just see his path to success much easier than most of these guys tbh.

If we traded back and took CMB; I would quit being a Sixers fan and become a Celtics, Knicks, Nets or even a blasted Raptors fan just so I could watch a divisional team kick the Sixers' a** as the Sixers wasted the prime of another star player trying to play a guy who can't shoot and their offense ends up 4 on 5.

That's fair. As much as I wish I could, I probably won't do that when we take a guy who I think will be a fine role player at #3.

I could live with us taking just about any of the guys in the top 8 as long as they aren't complete zeroes on offense (this would rule out Maluach). I'm just so over watching junk offensive basketball.

[76ciology]

he is a non shooter

like doesn't even take shots

I have ptsd about that

He took 34 3FG this year. That's 31 more 3FGA than Ben took in his one year at LSU. I think he is a more willing shooter than you'd think.

He's also 30/76 39.5% on 2FG jumpers. There's potential there and the form isn't completely jacked up like Ben's.

I just see his path to success much easier than most of these guys tbh.

I think his archetype has limited upside. I’m not a fan of power forwards who can’t shoot. The “Draymond Green 2.0” label is clouding people’s judgment.

First of all, you don’t draft a Draymond-type player with a top 3–5 pick. Second, there’s no Draymond Green without Steph Curry, his impact is context-dependent. And there’s also the concern that his effectiveness may not fully translate to the NBA due to his size.

That said, his on/off impact is legit. His team averages just 103 points per 100 possessions on offense and gives up 106 on defense. But with him on the floor, those numbers jump to 119 ORtg and 100 DRtg, he elevates his team to play solid offense and defense. That’s a real contrast, especially compared to our friend Ace.

VJ, CMB, and KK all feel like classic Morey picks, the type of guys he usually targets in the mid-to-late first round. But with a pick this high, I think he’s going to swing for someone with real upside.

Personally, I’d rather take my chances on Kneuppel or Rasheer Flemming. I think both have higher floors, and when it comes to upside, I don’t see a significant gap between them and CMB.

[Negrodamus]

If we traded back and took CMB; I would quit being a Sixers fan and become a Celtics, Knicks, Nets or even a blasted Raptors fan just so I could watch a divisional team kick the Sixers' a** as the Sixers wasted the prime of another star player trying to play a guy who can't shoot and their offense ends up 4 on 5.

That's fair. As much as I wish I could, I probably won't do that when we take a guy who I think will be a fine role player at #3.

I could live with us taking just about any of the guys in the top 8 as long as they aren't complete zeroes on offense (this would rule out Maluach). I'm just so over watching junk offensive basketball.

I'm also mentally preparing for us to trade back to get a vet (Cameron Johnson, Herb Jones) and a back end of the top 10 pick.

[76ciology]

That's fair. As much as I wish I could, I probably won't do that when we take a guy who I think will be a fine role player at #3.

I could live with us taking just about any of the guys in the top 8 as long as they aren't complete zeroes on offense (this would rule out Maluach). I'm just so over watching junk offensive basketball.

I'm also mentally preparing for us to trade back to get a vet (Cameron Johnson, Herb Jones) and a back end of the top 10 pick.

There’s just not enough payoff in that move. What if you can sign a Cam Johnson type players in free agency?

At the very least, it makes more sense for us to draft the best player available based on long-term value, then use that piece as trade capital to go after a star.

Honestly, I’d rather swing for someone like KD with that pick and try to fill the Cam Johnson role through free agency.