Jrue to Dallas take one billion with Kings and BOS follow up

[Texas Chuck]

Boston trades: Jrue/Hauser
Boston gets: Gafford/Thompson/top 55 SAC 2nd

Kings trade: top 55 2nd
Kings get: Marshall/Prosper

Mavs trade: Gafford/Thompson/Marshall/Prosper
Mavs get: Jrue/Hauser

Boston then follows up with LA and Brooklyn

Gafford goes to LA
Knecht/Kleber go to Brooklyn
top 55 2nd from Brooklyn goes to Boston

So Boston saves a touch under $25M this season and next and spends no assets. Klay can play minutes for 2 years as well.
Kings get a backup forward in Marshall and maybe Prosper turns into something --costs nothing but salary
Nets get a look at Knecht by taking on $11M in Kleber
Lakers get their lob threat for Luka and by not dealing with Dallas direct none of the Luka angst matters
Mavs get Jrue, a rumored target while also replacing the shooting lost in trading Klay

And if Marshall holds any minor value the Kings should be paying then either Dallas retains it or it goes to Boston depending on how one values Hauser

Edit: Eh the Celtics are due something in that 2nd trade. LA sends Brooklyn cash to help pay Kleber and Brooklyn kicks a couple future 2nds to Boston.

Double edit: Boston owes Dallas something more in the first trade lol

Guess this wasn't ready for the printer. Well you guys will tell me what else is wrong with it anyway.

[brackdan70]

I think Hauser has solid positive value. This is probably generally fair value given the Salary savings for Boston.
Personally I feel like it’s closer if we pull Hauser out of the deal. Maybe I am off but I think there will be a strong market for Jrue if he goes on the market.

[longfellow44]

I think Dallas deserves a little more value here. The kings can certainly kick in a few second round picks but I think potentially that boston is getting a little too much value.

[redslastlaugh]

All Jrue trades are tough to evaluate because we don't know if Jrue's intangible value sort of justifies his cap number to teams around the league.

You look at the players in Jrue's age bracket and they are three kinds:
1. aged into vet minimum bench roles like Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook (and paid $5 or less)
2. aged into the role of veteran rotation player making $10-$20 million (al Horford, mike conley, klay thompson)
3. stars still producing and paid as stars (Durant, Kawhi)

and then there's Jrue Holiday. Jrue is just an anomaly of a contract. so i don't know what is the value for the player given his circumstance.

and then a couple of other things:
1. Sam Hauser is, imo, a positive value player. I doubt he's added to a Jrue trade or, if he is, I think that'd be for added value coming back to Boston.

2. So many of these Jrue->Dallas trades have Gafford going to Boston. (Not your trade above, you have Gafford headed elsewhere, but quite a few of them have featured Gafford as the returning piece.)

But in my opinion, I really doubt Brad Stevens wants Daniel Gafford. Obviously the Mazzulla ball system values shooting bigs, but even predating joe Mazzulla becoming coach, Brad Stevens has only acquired bigs who shoot (Horford, Theis, Porzingis) since he became POBO. It's Brad's fundamental X's and O's belief going back to Ainge making Kelly Olynyk the 1st pick of the Stevens era -- shooting bigs draw the opposing center away from the rim. The only non-shooter centers Brad has acquired were acquired for the minimum.

When Boston trades Jrue/Sam probably a big part of the calculus is Brad just wants to open money to resign Al Horford and Luke Kornet. I really doubt Brad goes out and acquires Daniel Gafford. I'd kind of like Daniel Gafford, because I don't want to rely on a 40yr old Horford (speaking as a Celts fan) but the C's front office is so devoted to shooting that I do not expect interest in a Gafford type of player unless he's making <$5 million ...

[Texas Chuck]

Confused. Your post is mostly about not wanting Daniel Gafford and you don't end up with Daniel Gafford...he just passes through...saving you the money you want to re-sign your guys.

And I think Hauser is neutral to positive value too. It was part of the price of turning Jrue's contract into Klay's. And if Gafford returns value in a total salary dump then you would also get some minor assets on top of the financial stuff.

But its a ton of financial value so I'm not sold Boston gets short-changed in the end.

[Maverick41]

I'll be shocked if BOS can unload Jrue without attaching some form of draft compensation. Good player and good guy but that contract is one of the worst in the league at his current age and production.

[Michaellam1987]

If I am DAL, I wont take this deal. Jrue is a very good player, but he is clearly over his peak, combined with his 3 year large contract, IMO, makes him a negative asset. Hauser is at best a neutral value player, and it is very simple if I am willing to spend 10M in the FA market to find a replacement player.

Marshall and Gafford are both positive value players, would rather keep them.

BTW, I don't see the point with SAC being in, and stealing value without give up anything.

[redslastlaugh]

No, I know... it's that this is the 1 billionth take on this trade (see thread title, lol) and most of them have Gafford ending up in Boston, so it's more a comment on that trend.

It's hard to weigh in on the trade idea itself because it's so hard to understand Jrue's value given his age, contract and Boston's financial situation.

It seems that your idea from Boston's side is Jrue + Sam Hauser going out and Klay Thompson coming back.

I don't think Boston would do that because I think the Celts value Hauser more than that. But, I really don't think Boston wants to pay draft capital at all to move Jrue. Boston just acquired Jrue 20 months ago, they paid what became #14 pick in last draft and sent out an unprotected 2029 1st. The idea that they now pay MORE to dump him, is very unpalatable to the C's front office.

If including Sam Hauser was the only way to return a player of Klay's contract, I think Boston would do it as a last resort, ie all other Jrue-cost-cutting trades are gonna take draft picks coming from Boston ...

but we just don't know what is Jrue's value around the league. 20 months ago, it was 2 potential lottery picks, Rob Williams (healthy at the time) and Malcolm Brogdon (who'd just won 6MOY) ...

Boston just overpaid Jrue, if his annual number was lower and descending $30, $27.5, $25, $22 or whatever ... but yea, just Boston overpaid on the extension and boxed themselves in knowing the tax penalties they were signing up for... very unusual situation frankly. so unusual it's hard to understand the underlying facts I need to know to assess the trade idea.

Confused. Your post is mostly about not wanting Daniel Gafford and you don't end up with Daniel Gafford...he just passes through...saving you the money you want to re-sign your guys.

And I think Hauser is neutral to positive value too. It was part of the price of turning Jrue's contract into Klay's. And if Gafford returns value in a total salary dump then you would also get some minor assets on top of the financial stuff.

But its a ton of financial value so I'm not sold Boston gets short-changed in the end.

[brackdan70]

I'll be shocked if BOS can unload Jrue without attaching some form of draft compensation. Good player and good guy but that contract is one of the worst in the league at his current age and production.

This is a common but uninformed take.
He is the 53rd highest paid player on the league next year. Likely lower the following years as new contracts become signed. He is a top 60-70 guy on impact metrics last season. Yes he is past his prime and will be 35-37 for the 3 years left on his contract. It’s not likely that he falls off a cliff. He keeps himself in good shape and is obviously a solid intelligent player.
Yeah he is overpaid a bit but not as much as the hyperbole we see here “one of the worst contracts in the league.
I do believe it would take an asset to move him if the Cs are clearing all or most of his salary. I don’t think an asset would be required if they are taking back guys with multi year salary like Klay. Maybe I am wrong but from what we are hearing he is valued highly around the league, which makes sense given his positive impact.

[Texas Chuck]

No, I know... it's that this is the 1 billionth take on this trade (see thread title, lol) and most of them have Gafford ending up in Boston, so it's more a comment on that trend.

I think that is largely because of he makes sense for Dallas as part of the matching and the thinking that Boston needs a big if Horford retires. But I have read the feedback from Celtics fans in those threads and was quite aware of their lack of love for Gafford so I sent him along his merry way. (Dallas still needs to send him out).

And I also read how they don't want to attach picks to Jrue(poor Dan has posted they won't have to two dozen times ) and Dallas needs shooting especially if they trade Klay for Jrue so I mixed in Hauser.

If the requirement is Boston saves a ton of money, doesn't get a non-shooting center, doesn't pay anything to reduce salary on Jrue to realize said savings and gets value for Hauser, well its going to take someone smarter than me to figure out if that's doable and if so how. I think Boston will have to give somewhere on something, but maybe not.

[Texas Chuck]

BTW, I don't see the point with SAC being in, and stealing value without give up anything.

I honestly don't know if Marshall holds any value on his contract. Dallas was the high bidder or he wouldn't be a Maverick so I don't think there is much excess value there and Prosper holds none.

Now we have a Kings fan saying they are willing to give a couple 2nds and I also noted that possibility in the OP. But I don't think the Kings are really stealing much value here because Knife just doesn't have that much imo.

[williambh3]

What’s hard about Jrue is his role changed drastically from MIL to BOS but BOS paid him kinda like he still had the MIL role. It looks like he declined this year statistically, but it was really just a down year shooting after a career year. Otherwise he was the same as last year. We don’t really know for sure if he can still be MIL Jrue but I tend to think he can.

Conley / Horford were mostly the same at age 35 and 36, 37 is where the decline really started. Personally I think he is solid positive value first two years, questionable on the third, but then he can be packaged up as an expiring.

If the Spurs decide to move Fox because of the Harper found money, Jrue is absolutely perfect for them IMO.

[Michaellam1987]

BTW, I don't see the point with SAC being in, and stealing value without give up anything.

I honestly don't know if Marshall holds any value on his contract. Dallas was the high bidder or he wouldn't be a Maverick so I don't think there is much excess value there and Prosper holds none.

Now we have a Kings fan saying they are willing to give a couple 2nds and I also noted that possibility in the OP. But I don't think the Kings are really stealing much value here because Knife just doesn't have that much imo.

13.2 point + 4.9 rebound + 2.9 assist, while being above average defender, normally worth at least MLE, if not more. Hence yes, Marshall is a positive value asset, a coupon 2nds are definitely not enough. Prosper's value is close to none -> that one I basically agree.

[Michaellam1987]

I'll be shocked if BOS can unload Jrue without attaching some form of draft compensation. Good player and good guy but that contract is one of the worst in the league at his current age and production.

This is a common but uninformed take.
He is the 53rd highest paid player on the league next year. Likely lower the following years as new contracts become signed. He is a top 60-70 guy on impact metrics last season. Yes he is past his prime and will be 35-37 for the 3 years left on his contract. It’s not likely that he falls off a cliff. He keeps himself in good shape and is obviously a solid intelligent player.
Yeah he is overpaid a bit but not as much as the hyperbole we see here “one of the worst contracts in the league.
I do believe it would take an asset to move him if the Cs are clearing all or most of his salary. I don’t think an asset would be required if they are taking back guys with multi year salary like Klay. Maybe I am wrong but from what we are hearing he is valued highly around the league, which makes sense given his positive impact.

Jrue and Klay are both of the similar age, and that stat sheet is similar, one give you more defense and passing, while another one give you more offense and shooting. But one has 3 years 100M, another one has 2 year 35M. That makes the trade value be different.

[LightTheBeam]

I think sac wants jrue, not sure they'd help Dallas get him. I've been a Naji fan so im good with this. Look elsewhere for a pg

[babyjax13]

I love Jrue to Dallas, he fits like a glove there. I'm not sure I like the additional Hauser for Williams + filler swap for Dallas, though? Hauser is useful, yes, but it feels like a third guard who can provide some offensive oomph is still needed. I love Sexton for them, but cheaper targets like Cole Anthony and Jordan Clarkson might make more sense.

[cl2117]

What would it cost for Sac to eat Klay into their Huerter TPE instead?

DAL: Jrue
BOS: Gafford
SAC: Klay

[Mavrelous]

Trade is illegal, Mavs would be above the 2nd Apron after the deal when accounting for the 2 roster spots cap hold, and aggregating player hardcaps at 2nd Apron.
For Dallas to do such a deal, they much leave 4-5 million under the 2nd Apron, repeating this season mistake of being hardcapped with 0 leverage to sign 10-days even would be a malpractice, not something foreign to Nico Harrison, but still, you'd hope he learns from his mistakes.

[brackdan70]

I'll be shocked if BOS can unload Jrue without attaching some form of draft compensation. Good player and good guy but that contract is one of the worst in the league at his current age and production.

This is a common but uninformed take.
He is the 53rd highest paid player on the league next year. Likely lower the following years as new contracts become signed. He is a top 60-70 guy on impact metrics last season. Yes he is past his prime and will be 35-37 for the 3 years left on his contract. It’s not likely that he falls off a cliff. He keeps himself in good shape and is obviously a solid intelligent player.
Yeah he is overpaid a bit but not as much as the hyperbole we see here “one of the worst contracts in the league.
I do believe it would take an asset to move him if the Cs are clearing all or most of his salary. I don’t think an asset would be required if they are taking back guys with multi year salary like Klay. Maybe I am wrong but from what we are hearing he is valued highly around the league, which makes sense given his positive impact.

Jrue and Klay are both of the similar age, and that stat sheet is similar, one give you more defense and passing, while another one give you more offense and shooting. But one has 3 years 100M, another one has 2 year 35M. That makes the trade value be different.

There is a very large gap in impact metrics.
I don’t think GMs are making decisions comparing stat sheets.
Jrue is far and away a better player. If you are worried about that third year on Jrues contract then I can understand valuing him less.
I don’t think he will deteriorate like real gm posters think though.

[daoneandonly]

I really don't get it. We're seeing firsthand the importance of youth and fresh legs, yet somehow Dallas should keep adding old, tired (not to mention more expensive) vets who can't even perform at the levels they were known for. This formula does not work anymore