Official Scottie All Star Barnes Thread 9

[ConSarnit]

I've said this a lot even going back to when Siakam was on the team but he's most effective (comparatively) as a scorer as a 3 because he gets more size mismatches. As a 4, he effectively loses his size advantage. He struggles to finish over size and length really and he's not quick enough to get around those guys either when he has them out in space.

It's hard playing him at the 3 considering his shooting. He badly needs to develop a mid range game, and become a consistent 35% shooter from three if he wants to be a small forward.

A lot of people will disagree and think it's a lost cause but I still think it's a necessity that he becomes at least a competent shooter. Unless you're a Giannis or Zion level athlete, you have to be able to shoot at least a bit to be a decent offensive player as a non C.

If he’s not going to be able to shoot a few things are going to need to happen for us to become a really good team with Barnes on it:

-he needs to become all-defense level player who can play small ball 5 for stretches

-we’re going to need a stretch 5 because high level offense isn’t tenable with 2 complete zeros as shooters at the 4/5

Honestly, if Barnes can’t shoot I’m not sure he’s going to have positive value. He’ll lose playmaking reps as the team improves and he can’t really function as a supporting offensive player. He could mitigate this by becoming all-defense but even then “really good defensive PF who can’t shoot” isn’t exactly a player archetype found on successful teams. I guess the comp would be Aaron Gordon but you can’t be paying that guy the max. When he’s making $37m a year his flaws become that much more detrimental to the team. Ideally he improves his shooting next year or at least his defense is strong enough to buy us another developmental year for him on the scoring end (which is not a great place to be with a 5th year player making the 25% max).

[tsherkin]

I've said this a lot even going back to when Siakam was on the team but he's most effective (comparatively) as a scorer as a 3 because he gets more size mismatches. As a 4, he effectively loses his size advantage. He struggles to finish over size and length really and he's not quick enough to get around those guys either when he has them out in space.

It's hard playing him at the 3 considering his shooting. He badly needs to develop a mid range game, and become a consistent 35% shooter from three if he wants to be a small forward.

A lot of people will disagree and think it's a lost cause but I still think it's a necessity that he becomes at least a competent shooter. Unless you're a Giannis or Zion level athlete, you have to be able to shoot at least a bit to be a decent offensive player as a non C.

The root issue is assuming that he needs touches. He can shoot 36% from the corners. He doesnt need anything else but transition, offensive boards, cuts and maybe roll action. That's it.

[PushDaRock]

It's hard playing him at the 3 considering his shooting. He badly needs to develop a mid range game, and become a consistent 35% shooter from three if he wants to be a small forward.

A lot of people will disagree and think it's a lost cause but I still think it's a necessity that he becomes at least a competent shooter. Unless you're a Giannis or Zion level athlete, you have to be able to shoot at least a bit to be a decent offensive player as a non C.

If he’s not going to be able to shoot a few things are going to need to happen for us to become a really good team with Barnes on it:

-he needs to become all-defense level player who can play small ball 5 for stretches

-we’re going to need a stretch 5 because high level offense isn’t tenable with 2 complete zeros as shooters at the 4/5

Honestly, if Barnes can’t shoot I’m not sure he’s going to have positive value. He’ll lose playmaking reps as the team improves and he can’t really function as a supporting offensive player. He could mitigate this by becoming all-defense but even then “really good defensive PF who can’t shoot” isn’t exactly a player archetype found on successful teams. I guess the comp would be Aaron Gordon but you can’t be paying that guy the max. When he’s making $37m a year his flaws become that much more detrimental to the team. Ideally he improves his shooting next year or at least his defense is strong enough to buy us another developmental year for him on the scoring end (which is not a great place to be with a 5th year player making the 25% max).

That sounds about right. There's a very real possibility that his contract could be negative value by Year 2 or 3 into it.

[PushDaRock]

It's hard playing him at the 3 considering his shooting. He badly needs to develop a mid range game, and become a consistent 35% shooter from three if he wants to be a small forward.

A lot of people will disagree and think it's a lost cause but I still think it's a necessity that he becomes at least a competent shooter. Unless you're a Giannis or Zion level athlete, you have to be able to shoot at least a bit to be a decent offensive player as a non C.

The root issue is assuming that he needs touches. He can shoot 36% from the corners. He doesnt need anything else but transition, offensive boards, cuts and maybe roll action. That's it.

We are paying him Max Money. If he's functioning as a low USG role player offensively, he better be a DPOY candidate on the other end to justify the salary.

[Buff]

It's hard playing him at the 3 considering his shooting. He badly needs to develop a mid range game, and become a consistent 35% shooter from three if he wants to be a small forward.

A lot of people will disagree and think it's a lost cause but I still think it's a necessity that he becomes at least a competent shooter. Unless you're a Giannis or Zion level athlete, you have to be able to shoot at least a bit to be a decent offensive player as a non C.

The root issue is assuming that he needs touches. He can shoot 36% from the corners. He doesnt need anything else but transition, offensive boards, cuts and maybe roll action. That's it.

You can easily post him up and make nice play out of that. Anybody remembers the baby hook he used to have? That was money.

[Clay Davis]

Read on Twitter

I love that landmine exercise. Khabib and his crew do the same thing with rocks (though there is a video of them using the landmine when they're training with Demetrious Johnson). It's a great exercise, really improves the rizz of your obliques.

[tsherkin]

You can easily post him up and make nice play out of that. Anybody remembers the baby hook he used to have? That was money.

If you want a steady diet of the same 45-47% FG shots he gets when he runs his mid-range game, sure. He isn't an elite post-up player because he doesn't get into the RA very well and he isn't elite at drawing fouls, so it's somewhat moot.

We are paying him Max Money. If he's functioning as a low USG role player offensively, he better be a DPOY candidate on the other end to justify the salary.

It is what it is. We're better off ignoring salary and focusing on ability at this point.

[Indeed]

A lot of people will disagree and think it's a lost cause but I still think it's a necessity that he becomes at least a competent shooter. Unless you're a Giannis or Zion level athlete, you have to be able to shoot at least a bit to be a decent offensive player as a non C.

The root issue is assuming that he needs touches. He can shoot 36% from the corners. He doesnt need anything else but transition, offensive boards, cuts and maybe roll action. That's it.

You can easily post him up and make nice play out of that. Anybody remembers the baby hook he used to have? That was money.

NBA Stats (Synergy) says otherwise. He can post up against smaller players, but same size, his postup isn't at league average.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/playtype-post-up?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*Barnes:TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*TOR&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

[Buff]

If you want a steady diet of the same 45-47% FG shots he gets when he runs his mid-range game, sure. He isn't an elite post-up player because he doesn't get into the RA very well and he isn't elite at drawing fouls, so it's somewhat moot.

Not sure how the post up is related to the mid range and I guess we have spoken about this enough for you to know I'm not asking for "steady" diet of anything. But we have seen before the Scottie #1 phase that as a secondary scorer he could generate mismatches in the post. At his best, Scottie is an opportunistic scorer and he's proven to be a 15ppg as a 3rd-4th scorer.

[tsherkin]

Not sure how the post up is related to the mid range

I thought it pretty clear. Scottie's percentages from 3-10 are similar to his percentages on his 10-15 shooting this year. He isn't especially good at getting to the rim or getting to the line, so we're talking about a steady diet of shots at a similar FG% in either situation. AKA inefficient offense.

he's proven to be a 15ppg as a 3rd-4th scorer.

On mediocre to ass efficiency, though, so I don't know how much we want to learn on those earlier examples for guidelines on how to properly deploy him.

[Buff]

I thought it pretty clear. Scottie's percentages from 3-10 are similar to his percentages on his 10-15 shooting this year.

Must have missed it, I will say again I don't think you can take much statistically from this year other than "he should not be deployed as focal point". On which we all agree.

On mediocre to ass efficiency, though, so I don't know how much we want to learn on those earlier examples for guidelines on how to properly deploy him.

Around average league efficiency should be just fine on correct volume since you are deriving the value on the other side of the floor.
In general, I think everyone is so disgusted by his last season that kinda clouds how useful a player he can be for us. Make no mistake I was disgusted as well but frankly I was so nauseated with the whole tanking crap that I have decided not to take anything from that season. I will evaluate next year.

[tsherkin]

Must have missed it,

It happens.

I will say again I don't think you can take much statistically from this year other than "he should not be deployed as focal point". On which we all agree.

Well, you can also take away that he isn't a spacer, and for four years hasn't been especially good at any of the stuff other than on-ball scoring, either, which limits his value as a tertiary guy, too. His post offense isn't worth the return it provides. We're better off letting Ingram take those shots, for example. 45% FG with limited draw isn't really that exciting, which is a big part of WHY we don't see a lot of straight-up post isolations anymore except from the really dominant guys who have insane FG% and strong foul draw out of those sets. And otherwise see more conventional off-ball post offense, and PnR. Scottie's got a game which is like a weaker Al Jefferson (but based on power as opposed to advanced footwork) in terms of his post scoring output, which makes it of very limited value to us.

Around average league efficiency should be just fine on correct volume since you are deriving the value on the other side of the floor.
In general, I think everyone is so disgusted by his last season that kinda clouds how useful a player he can be for us. Make no mistake I was disgusted as well but frankly I was so nauseated with the whole tanking crap that I have decided not to take anything from that season. I will evaluate next year.

I agree that he can be very useful to us. We just need to pivot away from sending him scoring possessions, that's all. His D and rebounding will remain highly valuable to us.

[Buff]

Well, you can also take away that he isn't a spacer, and for four years hasn't been especially good at any of the stuff other than on-ball scoring, either, which limits his value as a tertiary guy, too. His post offense isn't worth the return it provides. We're better off letting Ingram take those shots, for example. 45% FG with limited draw isn't really that exciting, which is a big part of WHY we don't see a lot of straight-up post isolations anymore except from the really dominant guys who have insane FG% and strong foul draw out of those sets. And otherwise see more conventional off-ball post offense, and PnR. Scottie's got a game which is like a weaker Al Jefferson (but based on power as opposed to advanced footwork) in terms of his post scoring output, which makes it of very limited value to us.

What can I say, I'm could be too optimistic but I really enjoyed wreack-havoc Scottie before the pecking orders and the tanking and I trust that we will see that player again next season. I'm excited by that, you're not. What it is.

[tsherkin]

What can I say, I'm could be too optimistic but I really enjoyed wreack-havoc Scottie before the pecking orders and the tanking and I trust that we will see that player again next season. I'm excited by that, you're not. What it is.

I'm excited for Barnes next season, just for different reasons. I'm excited for us to stop throwing scoring responsibilities after him and for the team to finally acknowledge who he is (and has always been, and has always been scouted to be) as a player... which should free him up to have the best defensive season of his career. I'm hopeful that he'll learn how to use those wide shoulders to screen like an adult, because that would be HUGE for us, especially if he could learn to be effective as the roll man (especially with his passing).

And I'm hopeful that he'll get into the corners more, because even his relatively poor shooting there would be quite helpful to his overall value and scoring efficiency. We know he's useless ATB, but he's only about 2 or 3 percent worse than league average from the corners, and if he can bomb 36% from 3 based on almost nothing but corner 3s, then he can provide notable value for us in that way, coupled to transition O and off-ball cuts. That could put him in the mid-teens on acceptable efficiency, as long as we let other guys shoulder the volume and creation responsibilities.

[ConSarnit]

What can I say, I'm could be too optimistic but I really enjoyed wreack-havoc Scottie before the pecking orders and the tanking and I trust that we will see that player again next season. I'm excited by that, you're not. What it is.

I'm excited for Barnes next season, just for different reasons. I'm excited for us to stop throwing scoring responsibilities after him and for the team to finally acknowledge who he is (and has always been, and has always been scouted to be) as a player... which should free him up to have the best defensive season of his career. I'm hopeful that he'll learn how to use those wide shoulders to screen like an adult, because that would be HUGE for us, especially if he could learn to be effective as the roll man (especially with his passing).

And I'm hopeful that he'll get into the corners more, because even his relatively poor shooting there would be quite helpful to his overall value and scoring efficiency. We know he's useless ATB, but he's only about 2 or 3 percent worse than league average from the corners, and if he can bomb 36% from 3 based on almost nothing but corner 3s, then he can provide notable value for us in that way, coupled to transition O and off-ball cuts. That could put him in the mid-teens on acceptable efficiency, as long as we let other guys shoulder the volume and creation responsibilities.

Does it provide value? League average on corner 3’s is 39%. If Barnes is shooting 36% that’s just another (relatively) inefficient outcome.

Barnes shooting 36% from the corner helps him. Not sure how much it helps the team.

[tsherkin]

Does it provide value? League average on corner 3’s is 39%. If Barnes is shooting 36% that’s just another (relatively) inefficient outcome.

Barnes shooting 36% from the corner helps him. Not sure how much it helps the team.

It means he'd be a 36% 3pt shooter. It'd help his overall scoring efficiency. It would be a step forward for his utility to us, even at what is technically below league-average from that spot.

[ConSarnit]

A lot of people will disagree and think it's a lost cause but I still think it's a necessity that he becomes at least a competent shooter. Unless you're a Giannis or Zion level athlete, you have to be able to shoot at least a bit to be a decent offensive player as a non C.

The root issue is assuming that he needs touches. He can shoot 36% from the corners. He doesnt need anything else but transition, offensive boards, cuts and maybe roll action. That's it.

You can easily post him up and make nice play out of that. Anybody remembers the baby hook he used to have? That was money.

Post up scoring by year:

46th percentile
33rd percentile
42nd percentile
33rd percentile

He’s never been a good postup player.

Such is the biggest issue with Barnes (so far). Ok, maybe his shooting doesn’t come around but he’s not shown an ability to be good in the majority of other scoring areas. It’s not as simple as saying “post him up more” because the alternatives to jump shooting (postups, transition, etc) haven’t been good either. We’re just going to shift his possessions to other things he hasn’t been good at?

[tsherkin]

Post up scoring by year:

46th percentile
33rd percentile
42nd percentile
33rd percentile

He’s never been a good postup player.

Such is the biggest issue with Barnes (so far). Ok, maybe his shooting doesn’t come around but he’s not shown an ability to be good in the majority of other scoring areas. It’s not as simple as saying “post him up more” because the alternatives to jump shooting (postups, transition, etc) haven’t been good either. We’re just going to shift his possessions to other things he hasn’t been good at?

Without evidence of improvement, our best bet is to limit his possession total and types. He does okay on transition, he does well enough to help his individual value as a corner 3pt shooter, and then we can afford to experiment with him cutting off-ball and as a roll man, all at less than 12 FGA/g. See what we have, see what he can do, see where he improves with the superior spacing and reduced defensive attention, etc.

Scottie's problems arise heavily from poor shooting and lack of ability to score effectively with a live dribble. But we can improve his value to us in a few different ways (offensively)... and he can be a mediocre offensive player, as long as he isn't a terrible one, if he's crushing it on D for us and other guys lead the way on O.

[ConSarnit]

Does it provide value? League average on corner 3’s is 39%. If Barnes is shooting 36% that’s just another (relatively) inefficient outcome.

Barnes shooting 36% from the corner helps him. Not sure how much it helps the team.

It means he'd be a 36% 3pt shooter. It'd help his overall scoring efficiency. It would be a step forward for his utility to us, even at what is technically below league-average from that spot.

What about downstream effects? So now he’s zero threat to shoot out of pnr (you could argue he already is). We know he’s not blowing by guys with his speed or ball handling.

If Barnes is established a guy who only takes corner 3’s why are we giving him any pnr possessions? And if he is limited in on-ball possessions his ability to create gets marginalized and his value drops even more.

If Barnes is not type of any threat to shoot (or really get to the rim) his value as an on-ball player plummets. And if he’s not on-ball what actual role can he play?

I get your angle is we have to work with that we’ve got (and I agree with it) but some of these outcomes make things looks a little bleak. It sucks that we’re at the point where we are forced to try and fit in Barnes game at the cost of the overall team. I guess it’s a necessary evil or else we’re just stuck with a bad contract.

[ConSarnit]

Post up scoring by year:

46th percentile
33rd percentile
42nd percentile
33rd percentile

He’s never been a good postup player.

Such is the biggest issue with Barnes (so far). Ok, maybe his shooting doesn’t come around but he’s not shown an ability to be good in the majority of other scoring areas. It’s not as simple as saying “post him up more” because the alternatives to jump shooting (postups, transition, etc) haven’t been good either. We’re just going to shift his possessions to other things he hasn’t been good at?

Without evidence of improvement, our best bet is to limit his possession total and types. He does okay on transition, he does well enough to help his individual value as a corner 3pt shooter, and then we can afford to experiment with him cutting off-ball and as a roll man, all at less than 12 FGA/g. See what we have, see what he can do, see where he improves with the superior spacing and reduced defensive attention, etc.

Scottie's problems arise heavily from poor shooting and lack of ability to score effectively with a live dribble. But we can improve his value to us in a few different ways (offensively)... and he can be a mediocre offensive player, as long as he isn't a terrible one, if he's crushing it on D for us and other guys lead the way on O.

Transition creation? Maybe. Scoring, it’s been bad. Transition scoring percentile by year:

40th
25th
29th
25th

We really need him to be all-defense level next year (luckily that seems attainable).