2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

[IlikeSHAIguys]

this was fun

[IlikeSHAIguys]

shais the goat by the way

[OhayoKD]

Shai just dominated a better version of the bad boy pistons

[jalengreen]

I wonder how good the 2025 Clippers really were. Part of me wonders if they were a top 3 team in the conference despite the R1 exit. Other part of me thinks Harden was always going to doom them, idk.

[TheGOATRises007]

I wonder how good the 2025 Clippers really were. Part of me wonders if they were a top 3 team in the conference despite the R1 exit. Other part of me thinks Harden was always going to doom them, idk.

They were certainly the best team knocked out in the 1st round.

[Doctor MJ]

I wonder how good the 2025 Clippers really were. Part of me wonders if they were a top 3 team in the conference despite the R1 exit. Other part of me thinks Harden was always going to doom them, idk.

Honestly, I think them being a Top 3 West team is probably right. Only real question is whether the Warriors with Curry was better.

Re: Harden was always going to doom them. Harden doesn't keep teams from being Top 3 in a conference.

[Black Feet]

The Clippers have been eliminated in the first round the last 3 years placing 5,4,5. They haven’t been a top 3 team for a while.

[TheGOATRises007]

The Clippers have been eliminated in the first round the last 3 years placing 5,4,5. They haven’t been a top 3 team for a while.

This year's version could theoretically be a top 3 team in the West.

They may have played the 2nd best team in the West in the 1st round.

[Statlanta]

Even though Rudy Gobert currently has a positive +/- (averaged out) during this finals I'll still use this result as a reason why you can't with a title with a center who's blah blah blah.

Doesn't matter if the team he's facing has statistically arguably the greatest RS ever.

Why are we blaming Gobert when the PF love child of Harden and DeMarcus Cousins in Randle is right there?

[Black Feet]

The Clippers have been eliminated in the first round the last 3 years placing 5,4,5. They haven’t been a top 3 team for a while.

This year's version could theoretically be a top 3 team in the West.

They may have played the 2nd best team in the West in the 1st round.

I think after OKC there is no clear 2nd or 3rd best team, but what the wolves warriors houston and nuggets have done this year is more impressive than the clippers season.

[TheGOATRises007]

The Clippers have been eliminated in the first round the last 3 years placing 5,4,5. They haven’t been a top 3 team for a while.

This year's version could theoretically be a top 3 team in the West.

They may have played the 2nd best team in the West in the 1st round.

I think after OKC there is no clear 2nd or 3rd best team, but what the wolves warriors houston and nuggets have done this year is more impressive than the clippers season.

Impressive doesn't equate to better.

[Black Feet]

Even though Rudy Gobert currently has a positive +/- (averaged out) during this finals I'll still use this result as a reason why you can't with a title with a center who's blah blah blah.

Doesn't matter if the team he's facing has statistically arguably the greatest RS ever.

Why are we blaming Gobert when the PF love child of Harden and DeMarcus Cousins in Randle is right there?

Ant and Randle didn’t play great but Gobert is the highest paid player on the Wolves averaging 3pts/5rbs during the Thunder series.

[eminence]

OKC's ORTG against MIN in the WCF:

Gobert ON: 110.7 in 131 minutes
Gobert Off: 128.4 in 109 minutes

Chet in particular:

Gobert On: 23.9 points per 100 possessions on 55.7% TS
Gobert Off: 40.5 points per 100 possessions on 72.9% TS

Free buckets whenever Rudy was on the bench. And as bad as the rep was, basically no change in their offense with and without Rudy.

Unless there's an injury issue I'm not aware of, Rudy should've played more in this series.

[sp6r=underrated]

OKC is cruising to a title. I understand why the NBA is reluctant to lean into OKC from a marketing perspective but it was their best option for selling the Conference Finals/NBA Finals to casual fans.

Code: Select all

Team    Wins   Losses    PD     Mov
Thunder   12       4      173   10.8
Pacers    11       3       66    4.7
Wolves     9       6       40    2.7
Knicks     9       7        0    0

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Opponent   Wins   Losses   PD     Mov     Opp. SRS     Adj. MOV
Thunder   First Round              Grizzlies     4       0     78   19.5       4.79        24.3
Thunder   Conference Semi-Finals   Nuggets       4       3     64    9.1       3.97        13.1
Thunder   Conference Finals        Wolves        4       1     31    6.2       5.15        11.4

I'll add the Knicks when they comeback from 3-1 or in the unlikely event Indy wins them too. Older post from after 2nd round in spoilers:

Spoiler:

At a glance team playoff performances. OKC still looks like the prohibitive favorite is my main takeaway. My secondary takeaway, as a knicks fan is the knicks will need to improve their play significantly to win a title.

Code: Select all

Team    Wins   Losses    PD     Mov
Thunder   8       3      142   12.9
Wolves    8       2       71    7.1
Knicks    8       4       11    0.9
Pacers    8       2       55    5.5

Also round by round performance. Adjusted MOV doesn't take into account injuries which were significant in many of these series.

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Opponent   Wins   Losses   PD     Mov     Opp. SRS     Adj. MOV
Thunder   First Round              Grizzlies     4       0     78   19.5       4.79        24.3
Thunder   Conference Semi-Finals   Nuggets       4       3     64    9.1       3.97        13.1
Wolves    First Round              Lakers        4       1     35    7.0       1.45         8.5
Wolves    Conference Semi-Finals   Warriors      4       1     36    7.2       3.56        10.8
Knicks    First Round              Pistons       4       2      8    1.3       1.73         3.1
Knicks    Conference Semi-Finals   Celtics       4       2      3    0.5       8.28         8.8
Pacers    First Round              Bucks         4       1     38    7.6       2.12         9.7
Pacers    Conference Semi-Finals   Cavs          4       1     17    3.4       8.81        12.2

Time with lead

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Time with Lead    Time Behind   
Thunder   First Round              126.3               55.4
Thunder   Conference Semi-Finals   216.5              103.1
Wolves    First Round              119.3              110.9
Wolves    Conference Semi-Finals   159.8               65.9
Knicks    First Round              147.6              118.1
Knicks    Conference Semi-Finals    82.5              195.1
Pacers    First Round              168.5               64
Pacers    Conference Semi-Finals   113.7              120

Celtics and Cavs on some level must be kicking themselves for the blown games. Due to injuries a title was highly unlikely but there is a chance they could have advanced even hobbled.

[jalengreen]

The marketing conversation is a common one and I’d argue that it’s overstated. What exactly are people thinking of when they’re talking about marketing in this context?

It’s not the NBA directly, but two of the biggest commercials over the last two seasons featured OKC players. Shai/Chet in the “What a Pro Wants” AT&T ad last season and then that AT&T ad this season with Shai/Chet/JDub that I know everybody has seen constantly if they’re watching the playoffs. And for many people, these just really aren’t recognizable faces yet, and I don’t think that’s surprising at this point in their arc.

I think popularity is more driven by results than whatever Adam Silver can do. For example, marketing didn’t make Curry Curry; back-to-back Finals runs and MVPs (including one of the most exciting MVP seasons ever), a 24-0 start & 73-9 season made him Curry.

Could count national TV games and say they should have had more, but it’s not as if those have made Brunson or Tatum into faces of the league either - it can only do so much and another handful of those games probably isn’t doing anything crazy.

The best marketing they could have done is making a deeper run last year. Instead, they lost their chance to put the league on notice early, and this year they’re doing it.

[Black Feet]

OKC's ORTG against MIN in the WCF:

Gobert ON: 110.7 in 131 minutes
Gobert Off: 128.4 in 109 minutes

Chet in particular:

Gobert On: 23.9 points per 100 possessions on 55.7% TS
Gobert Off: 40.5 points per 100 possessions on 72.9% TS

Free buckets whenever Rudy was on the bench. And as bad as the rep was, basically no change in their offense with and without Rudy.

Unless there's an injury issue I'm not aware of, Rudy should've played more in this series.

he didn’t play more because he can’t shoot ft’s he wasn’t rebounding well he has trouble handling the ball when passed to and he’s not scoring, this is not the type of player that should be your highest paid and one of the highest earners in the league.

[Texas Chuck]

Should we play this guy who makes our team better every time he plays or should we sit him for arbitrary reason X or Y? I think I'd play the guy despite him not being perfect at every aspect of basketball. But I hope when your team plays mine they sit every positive impact player with any flaws.

[sp6r=underrated]

The marketing conversation is a common one and I’d argue that it’s overstated. What exactly are people thinking of when they’re talking about marketing in this context?

First, I agree that ratings are primarily driven by fundamentals and fundamentals limit what the NBA can do. A finals between Boston and Los Angeles with the exact same players will do markedly better than a finals between Cleveland and Utah.

But within that constraint the NBA can do a better job. OKC first game of the playoffs on opening weekend was buried in the worst timeslot. This is the likely finals team and they hid it. Most of their pre and post game shows avoided leaning on the OKC is a historically great team. That was a mistake IMO because an OKC stomp through the playoffs was a likely outcome.

It is a minor thing but it was a mistake making GSW-LA the marquees Christmas Eve game. Before the trades that was purely a nostalgia rating gimmick. Instead of leaning into nostalgia they should have made the marquees game a matchup of the likely finals teams and used Warriors-Lakers as a lead-in game.

Again fundamentals limit what the NBA can do to sell games but I think they did a poor job with OKC.

[sp6r=underrated]

OKC's ORTG against MIN in the WCF:

Gobert ON: 110.7 in 131 minutes
Gobert Off: 128.4 in 109 minutes

Chet in particular:

Gobert On: 23.9 points per 100 possessions on 55.7% TS
Gobert Off: 40.5 points per 100 possessions on 72.9% TS

Free buckets whenever Rudy was on the bench. And as bad as the rep was, basically no change in their offense with and without Rudy.

Unless there's an injury issue I'm not aware of, Rudy should've played more in this series.

Gobert should have played more in the first three quarters but I understand why he sat in the 4th quarters of the games were they were behind by a huge margin. Finch was correct that removing Gobert gave the team a higher offensive ceiling even if you are correct that the median play was likely to be worse. And when you are behind by a large margin the primary focus is on juicing a team's offensive ceiling not the median play.

[eminence]

OKC's ORTG against MIN in the WCF:

Gobert ON: 110.7 in 131 minutes
Gobert Off: 128.4 in 109 minutes

Chet in particular:

Gobert On: 23.9 points per 100 possessions on 55.7% TS
Gobert Off: 40.5 points per 100 possessions on 72.9% TS

Free buckets whenever Rudy was on the bench. And as bad as the rep was, basically no change in their offense with and without Rudy.

Unless there's an injury issue I'm not aware of, Rudy should've played more in this series.

Gobert should have played more in the first three quarters but I understand why he sat in the 4th quarters of the games were they were behind by a huge margin. Finch was correct that removing Gobert gave the team a higher offensive ceiling even if you are correct that the median play was likely to be worse. And when you are behind by a large margin the primary focus is on juicing a team's offensive ceiling not the median play.

Going quarter by quarter

Q1: 1:38, +7 in Rudy minutes, -4 in non Rudy minutes - foul trouble caused (2 quick fouls)
Q2: 9:21, +1 in Rudy minutes, 0 in non Rudy minutes
Q3: 10:21, -10 in Rudy minutes, -4 in non Rudy minutes
Q4: DNP, -16 in non Rudy minutes - down 10 going into the 4th, it was at 9 with about 9 minutes remaining

Q1: 9:22, -7 in Rudy minutes, +3 in non-Rudy minutes
Q2: 7:13, -2 in Rudy minutes, -2 in non-Rudy minutes
Q3: 7:15, -5 in Rudy minutes, -9 in non-Rudy minutes
Q4: 5:55, +5 in Rudy minutes, +2 in non-Rudy minutes, pulled Rudy with 6 minutes left down 17

Q1: 10:04, +14 in Rudy minutes, +6 in non-Rudy minutes
Q2: 6:06, +3 in Rudy minutes, +8 in non-Rudy minutes
Q3: 12:00, +6 in Rudy minutes, n/a
Q4: DNP, +5 in non-Rudy minutes, all starters pulled due to Wolves blowing them out

Q1: 9:17, -1 in Rudy minutes, -6 in non-Rudy minutes
Q2: 6:18, -1 in Rudy minutes, 0 in non-Rudy minutes
Q3: 9:48, +3 in Rudy minutes, 0 in non-Rudy minutes
Q4: 6:53, +3 in Rudy minutes, 0 in non-Rudy minutes

Q1: 9:06, -7 in Rudy minutes, -10 in non-Rudy minutes
Q2: 2:54, -3 in Rudy minutes, -13 in non-Rudy minutes
Q3: 7:21, +3 in Rudy minutes, +4 in non-Rudy minutes
Q4: DNP, -4 in non-Rudy minutes, getting blown out

So there are really 5 quarters with exceptionally low minutes.
Q1G1 - Foul trouble, 2 in 90 seconds, seems like an understandable decision, things went okay without Rudy.
Q4G1 - Should've brought him back imo, not so far down to justify pulling the goalie. What they tried certainly didn't work.
Q3G3 - Sure, no reason to play any starter.
Q2G5 - Rudy wasn't the primary problem for the Wolves last night. They had to turn a knob, so I get it, but I'm frustrated it was the one they chose. I don't believe it was their best chance (I'd try seeing if Naz could do Randle's job on that night or going to McDaniels at the 4 with Rudy before going with the no-Rudy Wolves).
Q4G5 - Sure, nobody was coming back from here.

So I'm really looking at Quarter 4 of game 1 and Quarter 2 last night in game 5.

I'll say I probably overstated it, it's not a huge issue, and I'm more frustrated than Finch deserves due to me liking Rudy's play and having to hear so much of this over the years. It's only 15-20 extra minutes, certainly doesn't win them the series, and is unlikely to even get them to game 6, but I do think those were mistakes.