2025 NBA Draft (2)

[Black Mage]

he is a non shooter

like doesn't even take shots

I have ptsd about that

He took 34 3FG this year. That's 31 more 3FGA than Ben took in his one year at LSU. I think he is a more willing shooter than you'd think.

He's also 30/76 39.5% on 2FG jumpers. There's potential there and the form isn't completely jacked up like Ben's.

I just see his path to success much easier than most of these guys tbh.

That said, his on/off impact is legit. His team averages just 103 points per 100 possessions on offense and gives up 106 on defense. But with him on the floor, those numbers jump to 119 ORtg and 100 DRtg, he elevates his team to play solid offense and defense. That’s a real contrast, especially compared to our friend Ace.

Rutgers DRtg with Ace on the floor: 109.6

Rutgers DRtg without Ace on the floor: 116.5

So um, yeah Ace actually improved his team's defense by 6.9 points compared to CMB's 6 points... I guess Ace is the better defender with a bigger defensive impact than CMB, right?

[76ciology]

He took 34 3FG this year. That's 31 more 3FGA than Ben took in his one year at LSU. I think he is a more willing shooter than you'd think.

He's also 30/76 39.5% on 2FG jumpers. There's potential there and the form isn't completely jacked up like Ben's.

I just see his path to success much easier than most of these guys tbh.

That said, his on/off impact is legit. His team averages just 103 points per 100 possessions on offense and gives up 106 on defense. But with him on the floor, those numbers jump to 119 ORtg and 100 DRtg, he elevates his team to play solid offense and defense. That’s a real contrast, especially compared to our friend Ace.

Rutgers DRtg with Ace on the floor: 109.6

Rutgers DRtg without Ace on the floor: 116.5

So um, yeah Ace actually improved his team's defense by 6.9 points compared to CMB's 6 points... I guess Ace is the better defender with a bigger defensive impact than CMB, right?

109 DRtg is still bad, thats my point.

I dont put much value if you can elevate a team’s defense when your team’s defense is still bad when you are on the court.

And offensively, the inefficient blackhole scorer doesn’t move the needle on offense compared to Dylan Harper.

[Negrodamus]

I could live with us taking just about any of the guys in the top 8 as long as they aren't complete zeroes on offense (this would rule out Maluach). I'm just so over watching junk offensive basketball.

I'm also mentally preparing for us to trade back to get a vet (Cameron Johnson, Herb Jones) and a back end of the top 10 pick.

There’s just not enough payoff in that move. What if you can sign a Cam Johnson type players in free agency?

At the very least, it makes more sense for us to draft the best player available based on long-term value, then use that piece as trade capital to go after a star.

Honestly, I’d rather swing for someone like KD with that pick and try to fill the Cam Johnson role through free agency.

There is no best player available at that range. It’s all subjective. Nique Clifford could be the best player after Harper and we’d never make that pick at 3. I truly think everything after 2 is that volatile.

Trading PG and 3 for KD is moving the chairs around on the Titanic. Getting a high end role player to match with the team already constructed by Morey along with a 5-10 pick is more palatable for the fan base.

[76ciology]

Kasparas averaged 2.2 Stl% prior to injury

The only downside I see is his turn-over rate but I don’t think it would be that high if he’s playing with the talent we have on our team.

And yeah, 41% from 3 and 61 TS% prior to that injury. I would say maybe it’s just a hot streak, but those numbers are in line with his pre-illinois days.

I tried to check if the injury is legit:

[x]

Read on Twitter

[/x]

HE IS TOP 3.

[Black Mage]

I've been searching for awhile to find a site that I could use to track on/off numbers and I came across hoop-explorer.com. Apologies if I botched this, but I don't think I did, I welcome anyone to cross-check and confirm I got it right.

Rutgers per 100 possession ratings when Ace and Harper comparisons

Both on the Floor:

OfRtg: 114.3 - Adj: 121.1
DfRtg: 109.9 - Adj: 102.9

Both off the Floor:

OfRtg: 104.9 - Adj: 111.6
DfRtg: 112.8 - Adj: 107.1

Ace On - Dylan Off

OfRtg: 103.5 - Adj 113.8
DfRtg: 108.7 - Adj 105.9

Dylan On - Ace Off

OfRtg: 106.8 - Adj: 110.1
DfRtg: 118.5 - Adj: 115.4

Going to pause here a minute. The biggest thing that jumps out to me is just what a difference Bailey made on the defensive end and the fact that the team's defense was stronger without Dylan on the floor than with. The team defense was actually a point per 100 possessions better with Ace on and Dylan off compared to both Ace and Dylan on together. Take Ace off and keep Dylan on and woah, the team defense is now 10 points worse compared to Ace on and Dylan off and 9 points worse when both are on together.

People seriously need to start realizing just how big an impact he had on Rutgers' defense on the whole and that he's a lot more than flashy weakside blocks.

Now let's look at Ace and Dylan on/off in totality regardless of whether their counterpart was on with them or not.

Ace On

OfRtg: 111.5 - Adj 119.2
DfRtg: 109.6 - Adj 102.3

Ace Off

OfRtg: 106.1 - Adj 109.7
DfRtg: 116.5 - Adj 113.2

Dylan On

OfRtg: 112.6 - Adj 118.7
DfRtg: 111.9 - Adj 105.8

Dylan Off

OfRtg: 103.7 - Adj 112.6
DfRtg: 109.4 - Adj 102.3

This run solidifies the earlier finding that the team actually performed better defensively without Harper on the floor (I'm still surprised by this). Another surprise, the team offense (depending if you look at per 100 or adj per 100) either didn't suffer that much losing its floor general or may have from a metrics standpoint done better.

There is a lot of noise created by the Rutgers situation so again trying to do ratings per 100, especially on offense, may not be as reliable as we'd like. I do think, the defensive ratings are the more reliable of the 2 and man do they really paint a different story about Ace's defensive impact.

[Black Mage]

Following up on the Ace and Dylan On/Off Per 100 - I decided to run this website over the other prospects.

VJ: The offense was 12 pts better per 100 with him off the court. The defense was 4.5 pts worse with him off. The adjusted per 100 was only slightly better for him with the offense scoring 10 pts more with him off.

Kon: Offense was 1 pt worse without him and defense was 1 pt better without him so a wash. On the Adjusted side offense was 5 pts worse and defense 3 points better.

Tre: A big surprise here the offense was 10 pts better with him off and 3 points better defensively as well. The adjusted score was friendlier to him with the offense 2 points worse and defense 7 points worse (I have no idea how that worked out).

Kasper: Might start looking at him more b/c at least the numbers backup what we would want to see. Offense 5 points worse, defense 5 points better. But adjusted it becomes almost 8 pts better on offense and just 3 points worse on defense.

Queen: Had a similar impact to Kasper.

Maluach: Surprisingly had a bigger impact on the offense than Kon did. The offense was 4 pts better when on and that went up to 5 on the adjusted side.

Flagg: Just wanted to use him as a baseline to make sure the site looked legit. The defensive impact of this kid is insane. The team was a full 7 to 8 points better defensively with him on the floor. Malauch didn't even come close to this, he was about 1 pt or neutral.

[Black Mage]

That said, his on/off impact is legit. His team averages just 103 points per 100 possessions on offense and gives up 106 on defense. But with him on the floor, those numbers jump to 119 ORtg and 100 DRtg, he elevates his team to play solid offense and defense. That’s a real contrast, especially compared to our friend Ace.

Rutgers DRtg with Ace on the floor: 109.6

Rutgers DRtg without Ace on the floor: 116.5

So um, yeah Ace actually improved his team's defense by 6.9 points compared to CMB's 6 points... I guess Ace is the better defender with a bigger defensive impact than CMB, right?

109 DRtg is still bad, thats my point.

I dont put much value if you can elevate a team’s defense when your team’s defense is still bad when you are on the court.

And offensively, the inefficient blackhole scorer doesn’t move the needle on offense compared to Dylan Harper.

Wow, so Ace gets completely blamed for the entire team's defensive rating? Are you even reading what you write at this point to dump on Ace?

And wait till you read my post a few posts after this statement about Ace being a blackhole and the offense compared to Harper. Dang are you in for a shock.

[76ciology]

Ace Bailey (30 games)
Against top 100 RPI (17 games) : 40FG%
Against non top 100 RPI (13 games): 53.9 FG%

46FG% is also Fugazi?

[76ciology]

Kasparas before injury



Kasparas after injury



..ended the season with 58TS%!

He’s the 3rd best player hiding in plain sight.

[zaz102]

I looked for a guard profile similar to SGA- freshmen that were decent passers, good at drawing fouls, weren't terrible at free throws, and could hit three pointers, and wasn't a munchkin.

AST% ≥ 15%
2P% ≥ 40%
3P% ≥ 33% / 3PA ≥ 50
FT% ≥ 70%
Height ≥ 6'5"
2PA ≥ 200

The players were:
James Harden
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Josh Green
Cooper Flagg
Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe

This made me interested in VJ for a minute until I realized that he was the shortest, one of the poorest shooters, worst at passing, worst at getting to the line.

Great company to be a part of, but he was closer to Josh Green than the rest of the guys which gives me pause. I might need to watch more video of him.

[youngcrev]

Kasparas averaged 2.2 Stl% prior to injury

The only downside I see is his turn-over rate but I don’t think it would be that high if he’s playing with the talent we have on our team.

And yeah, 41% from 3 and 61 TS% prior to that injury. I would say maybe it’s just a hot streak, but those numbers are in line with his pre-illinois days.

I tried to check if the injury is legit:

[x]

Read on Twitter

[/x]

HE IS TOP 3.

Love picking a guy!

Watching him with a more critical eye, I think my concern would be that he just doesn't generate a ton of space for himself. He's got that step back, but look how close those defenders are. I'm not sure he gets back with enough burst to where NBA defenders aren't eating up that space. Obviously, that's something he could improve on, just an immediate observation. Basically, my worry would be that he's more Micic than Haliburton. Also, with that slight frame, I don't think he's going to put on the strength to make up for it.

That said, he did test reasonably well athletically, so I don't think he'd be completely overwhelmed physically. And the passing/feel seem to be pretty elite.

Fun player. I think you'd really have to buy hard into the pre/post injury shooting numbers to have the balls to pick him this high. Because I'm not sure he has the burst to be a primary, and he's not going to be a plus defender.

Outcome range based on me watching YouTube highlights feels something like:
Ridiculous outcome: Haliburton
Mid/highish range outcome: mediocre defense version of Lonzo
Low end: More athletic Micic

[Jojothewhale]

I don't trust Jakucionis to beat NBA PoA defenders off the dribble. The physical juice just isn't there for an early lottery risk.

I'm a numbers guy, but they can't convince me that's wrong. And if I criticize Ace for that, I have to apply it consistently.

[Jojothewhale]

Double post.

[mjkvol]

I could live with us taking just about any of the guys in the top 8 as long as they aren't complete zeroes on offense (this would rule out Maluach). I'm just so over watching junk offensive basketball.

I'm also mentally preparing for us to trade back to get a vet (Cameron Johnson, Herb Jones) and a back end of the top 10 pick.

There’s just not enough payoff in that move. What if you can sign a Cam Johnson type players in free agency?

At the very least, it makes more sense for us to draft the best player available based on long-term value, then use that piece as trade capital to go after a star.

Honestly, I’d rather swing for someone like KD with that pick and try to fill the Cam Johnson role through free agency.

You're really serious about trying to compete next year, and selling out the future to do it? To me, any trade of #3 for a "win now" piece that does not at least keep us in the lottery is a reason to not watch the Sixers again after taking this past season off.

Actually, any trade involving #3 that does not bring back a lower lottery pick with additional picks should be a non-starter.

[Negrodamus]

I looked for a guard profile similar to SGA- freshmen that were decent passers, good at drawing fouls, weren't terrible at free throws, and could hit three pointers, and wasn't a munchkin.

AST% ≥ 15%
2P% ≥ 40%
3P% ≥ 33% / 3PA ≥ 50
FT% ≥ 70%
Height ≥ 6'5"
2PA ≥ 200

The players were:
James Harden
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Josh Green
Cooper Flagg
Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe

This made me interested in VJ for a minute until I realized that he was the shortest, one of the poorest shooters, worst at passing, worst at getting to the line.

Great company to be a part of, but he was closer to Josh Green than the rest of the guys which gives me pause. I might need to watch more video of him.

Loving the stat dive. What are you using to filter the stats? I used to use Sports Reference but they paywalled the player search functionality.

Looking at the list above, I do think using the eye test comes into play as guys like Harden, SGA, Cade, Harper were all the lead guard for their teams while Josh Green and VJ were off ball. That said, it is promising that VJ can generate assists while being an off ball guy.

[the_process]

We should probably just ban dealing with Ainge in any capacity ever again.

F***ck that, just be competent for a change and catch the little weasel in a spot where he's the more desperate party to make the deal.

Fleecing Danny Ainge would be a dream come true. Maybe we could bring in Mario Elie as a distraction? Throw Ainge off his game.

They had him fleeced for Okafor, but Jerry C nixed the deal.

Never forget that rat Silver ******* this franchise with the Colangelos.

[zaz102]

I looked for a guard profile similar to SGA- freshmen that were decent passers, good at drawing fouls, weren't terrible at free throws, and could hit three pointers, and wasn't a munchkin.

AST% ≥ 15%
2P% ≥ 40%
3P% ≥ 33% / 3PA ≥ 50
FT% ≥ 70%
Height ≥ 6'5"
2PA ≥ 200

The players were:
James Harden
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Josh Green
Cooper Flagg
Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe

This made me interested in VJ for a minute until I realized that he was the shortest, one of the poorest shooters, worst at passing, worst at getting to the line.

Great company to be a part of, but he was closer to Josh Green than the rest of the guys which gives me pause. I might need to watch more video of him.

Loving the stat dive. What are you using to filter the stats? I used to use Sports Reference but they paywalled the player search functionality.

Looking at the list above, I do think using the eye test comes into play as guys like Harden, SGA, Cade, Harper were all the lead guard for their teams while Josh Green and VJ were off ball. That said, it is promising that VJ can generate assists while being an off ball guy.

https://www.barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2026

It goes back to 2008 if you change the drop down at the top from 2025 to all.

Let's you filter for freshman year, school level, and most stats. Highly recommend it for stat nerds.

[Negrodamus]

I looked for a guard profile similar to SGA- freshmen that were decent passers, good at drawing fouls, weren't terrible at free throws, and could hit three pointers, and wasn't a munchkin.

AST% ≥ 15%
2P% ≥ 40%
3P% ≥ 33% / 3PA ≥ 50
FT% ≥ 70%
Height ≥ 6'5"
2PA ≥ 200

The players were:
James Harden
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Josh Green
Cooper Flagg
Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe

This made me interested in VJ for a minute until I realized that he was the shortest, one of the poorest shooters, worst at passing, worst at getting to the line.

Great company to be a part of, but he was closer to Josh Green than the rest of the guys which gives me pause. I might need to watch more video of him.

Loving the stat dive. What are you using to filter the stats? I used to use Sports Reference but they paywalled the player search functionality.

Looking at the list above, I do think using the eye test comes into play as guys like Harden, SGA, Cade, Harper were all the lead guard for their teams while Josh Green and VJ were off ball. That said, it is promising that VJ can generate assists while being an off ball guy.

https://www.barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2026

It goes back to 2008 if you change the drop down at the top from 2025 to all.

Let's you filter for freshman year, school level, and most stats. Highly recommend it for stat nerds.

Ah gotcha, I've been using it a bit for individual player profiles, but just now checking out the filtering option. Have you had any issues setting a longer timeline? I made it from 2018-2025 and it's only showing me 2018 guys.

[mjkvol]

He took 34 3FG this year. That's 31 more 3FGA than Ben took in his one year at LSU. I think he is a more willing shooter than you'd think.

He's also 30/76 39.5% on 2FG jumpers. There's potential there and the form isn't completely jacked up like Ben's.

I just see his path to success much easier than most of these guys tbh.

That said, his on/off impact is legit. His team averages just 103 points per 100 possessions on offense and gives up 106 on defense. But with him on the floor, those numbers jump to 119 ORtg and 100 DRtg, he elevates his team to play solid offense and defense. That’s a real contrast, especially compared to our friend Ace.

Rutgers DRtg with Ace on the floor: 109.6

Rutgers DRtg without Ace on the floor: 116.5

So um, yeah Ace actually improved his team's defense by 6.9 points compared to CMB's 6 points... I guess Ace is the better defender with a bigger defensive impact than CMB, right?

I admittedly don't grind these numbers like you guys do, but wouldn't a good part of the reason the Rutgers defense falls off a cliff without Ace on the floor be due to the virtual D2 makeup of the rest of that roster? A lot of these numbers require some perspective.

[76ciology]

I don't trust Jakucionis to beat NBA PoA defenders off the dribble. The physical juice just isn't there for an early lottery risk.

I'm a numbers guy, but they can't convince me that's wrong. And if I criticize Ace for that, I have to apply it consistently.

Hc rim frequency 30% at 61FG%
50% FTr;
50% 3PTr
85 FT%
59TS%
Shot 41% on 3,15 games prior to injury
96th percentile in PnR 35.8% of his stepback 3’s, going 12/23 on “side step backs
He’s a very good FT shooter 85-90-ish prior to illinois

He’s a legit 3 level scorer, he has one of the highest feel and IQ. He’s one of the rare high usage guys with good motor (averaged 2.2 stl% prior to injury; ended up with good rebounding number; never gives up on defense)

He had almost 10BPM prior to his injury