2025 NBA Draft (2)

[zaz102]

Loving the stat dive. What are you using to filter the stats? I used to use Sports Reference but they paywalled the player search functionality.

Looking at the list above, I do think using the eye test comes into play as guys like Harden, SGA, Cade, Harper were all the lead guard for their teams while Josh Green and VJ were off ball. That said, it is promising that VJ can generate assists while being an off ball guy.

https://www.barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2026

It goes back to 2008 if you change the drop down at the top from 2025 to all.

Let's you filter for freshman year, school level, and most stats. Highly recommend it for stat nerds.

Ah gotcha, I've been using it a bit for individual player profiles, but just now checking out the filtering option. Have you had any issues setting a longer timeline? I made it from 2018-2025 and it's only showing me 2018 guys.

It doesnt seem to work when you put the dates in the from/to fields. It works well for me if I got to the dropdown at the top of the page and select all (last option in the dropdown).

[76ciology]

That said, his on/off impact is legit. His team averages just 103 points per 100 possessions on offense and gives up 106 on defense. But with him on the floor, those numbers jump to 119 ORtg and 100 DRtg, he elevates his team to play solid offense and defense. That’s a real contrast, especially compared to our friend Ace.

Rutgers DRtg with Ace on the floor: 109.6

Rutgers DRtg without Ace on the floor: 116.5

So um, yeah Ace actually improved his team's defense by 6.9 points compared to CMB's 6 points... I guess Ace is the better defender with a bigger defensive impact than CMB, right?

I admittedly don't grind these numbers like you guys do, but wouldn't a good part of the reason the Rutgers defense falls off a cliff without Ace on the floor be due to the virtual D2 makeup of the rest of that roster? A lot of these numbers require some perspective.

The problem is, the team still plays terrible defense with him on the floor.

If you’re looking for a real floor raiser, look at CMB. He played on one of the worst teams in the conference, 2-16 record, 103 ORtg, 106 DRtg overall. But when CMB was on the court, that jumped to a 119 ORtg and a 100 DRtg.

The measurements, the team context, the inflated FG%, it’s all fugazi. There’s a massive gap in his shooting against top 100 RPI teams (.40 FG%) versus non-top 100 (.53 FG%). The numbers are dressed up, but they don’t hold under real scrutiny.

[Black Mage]

That said, his on/off impact is legit. His team averages just 103 points per 100 possessions on offense and gives up 106 on defense. But with him on the floor, those numbers jump to 119 ORtg and 100 DRtg, he elevates his team to play solid offense and defense. That’s a real contrast, especially compared to our friend Ace.

Rutgers DRtg with Ace on the floor: 109.6

Rutgers DRtg without Ace on the floor: 116.5

So um, yeah Ace actually improved his team's defense by 6.9 points compared to CMB's 6 points... I guess Ace is the better defender with a bigger defensive impact than CMB, right?

I admittedly don't grind these numbers like you guys do, but wouldn't a good part of the reason the Rutgers defense falls off a cliff without Ace on the floor be due to the virtual D2 makeup of the rest of that roster? A lot of these numbers require some perspective.

Check my follow up post breaking down the ratings for Harper and Dylan together, one without the other, etc. There's analytical evidence now that shows Rutgers' team defense was actually better when Dylan Harper went off the floor; but absolutely cratered without Ace. The D2 squad thing explains why the team defensive rating was still below average compared to other schools.

[Negrodamus]

I think Morey is most intrigued by Edgecombe for a few reasons.

-analytical darling
-puts up gigantic effort every game
-has the off court personality you’d like from a prospect
-many holes are fixable (off ball defense, add weight)
-a fit with Maxey, PG, Embiid
-adds athleticism, rim pressure

In terms of a Morey “don’t overthink it” VJ is that guy.

[ProcessDoctor]

I looked for a guard profile similar to SGA- freshmen that were decent passers, good at drawing fouls, weren't terrible at free throws, and could hit three pointers, and wasn't a munchkin.

AST% ≥ 15%
2P% ≥ 40%
3P% ≥ 33% / 3PA ≥ 50
FT% ≥ 70%
Height ≥ 6'5"
2PA ≥ 200

The players were:
James Harden
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Josh Green
Cooper Flagg
Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe

This made me interested in VJ for a minute until I realized that he was the shortest, one of the poorest shooters, worst at passing, worst at getting to the line.

Great company to be a part of, but he was closer to Josh Green than the rest of the guys which gives me pause. I might need to watch more video of him.

This is why I feel like Morey will end up picking VJ. It’s truly an eye test (Ace) versus analytics (VJ) pick if we stay at #3.

[Stanford]

Ace certainly doesn't pass my eye test.

[FireMorey]

I think Morey is most intrigued by Edgecombe for a few reasons.

-analytical darling
-puts up gigantic effort every game
-has the off court personality you’d like from a prospect
-many holes are fixable (off ball defense, add weight)
-a fit with Maxey, PG, Embiid
-adds athleticism, rim pressure

In terms of a Morey “don’t overthink it” VJ is that guy.

I think he will take the guy he thinks has the best chance to be a 1A on a championship team, whoever that guy is. Not sure when you pick in the top 3 he's going to be focused on specific attributes unless they go into the likelihood that player becomes a 1A on a title team.

[Negrodamus]

I think Morey is most intrigued by Edgecombe for a few reasons.

-analytical darling
-puts up gigantic effort every game
-has the off court personality you’d like from a prospect
-many holes are fixable (off ball defense, add weight)
-a fit with Maxey, PG, Embiid
-adds athleticism, rim pressure

In terms of a Morey “don’t overthink it” VJ is that guy.

I think he will take the guy he thinks has the best chance to be a 1A on a championship team, whoever that guy is. Not sure when you pick in the top 3 he's going to be focused on specific attributes unless they go into the likelihood that player becomes a 1A on a title team.

Then he'll trade it because there is no "1A on a title team" option at 3.

[FireMorey]

I think Morey is most intrigued by Edgecombe for a few reasons.

-analytical darling
-puts up gigantic effort every game
-has the off court personality you’d like from a prospect
-many holes are fixable (off ball defense, add weight)
-a fit with Maxey, PG, Embiid
-adds athleticism, rim pressure

In terms of a Morey “don’t overthink it” VJ is that guy.

I think he will take the guy he thinks has the best chance to be a 1A on a championship team, whoever that guy is. Not sure when you pick in the top 3 he's going to be focused on specific attributes unless they go into the likelihood that player becomes a 1A on a title team.

Then he'll trade it because there is no "1A on a title team" option at 3.

We'll see if he feels the same way. If he does, I agree that he'll trade the pick or trade down(unless they think Harper is and he falls to 3). Morey always hunts for elite players. I believe he's going to try to use this stroke of luck getting the 3rd pick to get a franchise player one way or the other. And if that option totally isn't available, then parlaying it into a really good player, plus assets that can help him get that franchise player elsewhere.

[Negrodamus]

I actually think Maxey would be better with VJ while McCain and Grimes make more sense, however playoffs might dictate Grimes starting for this upcoming season since VJ will undoubtedly not be ready for playoff basketball.

Maxey
VJ
Edwards
PG
Embiid

McCain
Grimes
Oubre
??? (guessing Yabusele is gone)
Bona

Pretty decent 9 deep.

[Jailblazers7]

Remember when Daryl said we now give AI a vote in decisions? What player do we think the AI will favor?

[Negrodamus]

I'm trying to let the stats do the heavy lifting on Edgecombe's defensive deficiencies because Ben Simmons looked bad often on defense at LSU and he ended up being elite. I imagine if you have the instincts (reflected by the stats) and athleticism, defense is a relatively easy thing to teach at the next level.

[Jailblazers7]

I'm trying to let the stats do the heavy lifting on Edgecombe's defensive deficiencies because Ben Simmons looked bad often on defense at LSU and he ended up being elite. I imagine if you have the instincts (reflected by the stats) and athleticism, defense is a relatively easy thing to teach at the next level.

JJ Redick became a competent NBA defender during his prime years so anything is possible.

[Stanford]

VJ's highlights look way better than Westbrook's in college

[sodmoraes]

I´m already tired of discussing prospects and we still have a couple of weeks to go

[ProcessDoctor]

I actually think Maxey would be better with VJ while McCain and Grimes make more sense, however playoffs might dictate Grimes starting for this upcoming season since VJ will undoubtedly not be ready for playoff basketball.

Maxey
VJ
Edwards
PG
Embiid

McCain
Grimes
Oubre
??? (guessing Yabusele is gone)
Bona

Pretty decent 9 deep.

I think Oubre is as good as gone. The only time Morey mentioned him was when discussing his likely opt-in (along with Drummond, Gordon). He did not include him when talking about next year's rotation of young guys (picks, McCain, Grimes, Edwards, Bona).

[Negrodamus]

More of a case for Edgecombe. The concern is his ability to create on offense, but I was shocked that he really does score in line with ISO scorers of the past:

At the rim:
76-126 60.3% FG 39.5% shots assisted

Other 2pt FG:
37-96 38.5% FG 21.6% shots assisted

3FG:
50-149 33.6%FG 86.0% shots assisted

Obviously the 3FG are higher assisted, which is to be expected unless you're a lead ball handler or someone who takes tough shots.

[Stanford]

VJ is an underrated passer!

[76ciology]

I don’t mind VJ, he’s a good fit, and I’ve said before he’s a classic Morey-type player because he generates extra possessions. The issue is, with a top-3 pick, I imagine Morey will want to balance that by getting someone who can also carry a real offensive load.

Morey values two things.. shot efficiency and extra possessions. VJ checks the box for the latter, but struggles with the former. He’s got a shaky handle, is an average shooter, and a poor finisher at the rim. His 55 TS% and 50.4 eFG% reflect that.

[Iverson Armband]

I respect Rafael Barlow a lot. He seems to think Tre Johnson should be the pick at #3. Thinks his passing and playmaking are severely underrated and the defense was a product of having to carry such a load offensively. I agree with all of that.

Maxey, Grimes, Johnson with McCain off the bench is some hellacious shooting. There isn’t a team in the league that can compete with that amount of shooting at the guard positions. That is extremely intriguing. We need to find our own way to be successful, there’s more than one way to skin a cat. I don’t want to copy what other teams are doing with different personnel. If you look at the final 4 this year, they all have different play styles. Force teams to adjust to US!