DB23 wrote:vvoland wrote:DB23 wrote:
Actually I think you could add several other basketball related skills to a write up of both brown and kawhi at the same age. His development curve is nothing alike and my biggest concern with kuminga is that he just doesn’t seem to have the bbiq on either side of the ball.
But yes he could fix his shot like kawhi, it wouldn’t be wild but also seems more the exception than the norm with players of his profile.
what did you have in mind? I don't watch much CBB but both were touted as raw athletes with defensive upside and limited offensive potential. Kawhi def blew past that, Brown, not yet.
Defense is actually exactly what I had in mind. I watched more kawhi than brown at that age. But kawhi basically came in and blew everyone’s expectations out of the water on the defensive side. And most importantly, he looked like he belonged on the court, contributing to winning pretty much straight away.
So it seems we are asking a lot. Kuminga not only needs to tread the narrow path to being a knockdown shooter, he also needs to learn to dribble, defend and pass. But I guess it depends what your expectations are. For me, I think he could be a really good role player if he accepts his role. Superstar is out of the question, he’s more likely to be out of the league in 3 years than become a kawhi level superstar.
If he does everything you outline, he'll be 2-way superstar. With JK's current skills, if he becomes a knockdown shooter while improving his handle, passing, and defense? You just described Kawhi without the rebounds.
I do not remember jalen brown coming out of cal as a high IQ player, nor does he really have that rep now. Kawhi, if memory serves, came in as an athletic but undersized 4 that couldn't shoot or dribble; certainly not as a 'skilled' player. . He was a on-ball defender and rebounder but grew the handle and shot to incredible levels. I didn't expect JK to have that level of development, I thought he had more of those tools at 18 than kawhi did when he got drafted. I just thought he could develop into one of those big bodied, bully, wings, in the mold of kawhi or brown. Clearly, after 4 years, I no longer hold out much hope for this scenario.
That said, the john collins or josh jackson comparisons are off the mark. JK creates offense better than either of those guys and as we saw in the playoffs, that is a very valuable skill. Maybe not for this team when everyone is healthy but it's not as useless as Kerr makes it seem. His floor does seem to be magette. Josh jackson was playing in the phillipines by his second contract.
JK has a few paths to come close to realizing his potential, you mentioned all 3:
1. He becomes a consistent 3pt shooter and the 37 percent we saw his 2nd year (and in stretches since) is the new normal, on decently high volume. If he can do that and stabilize at 75%+ from the line, he can become one of the more efficient 25 ppg scorers in the league. How valuable is that? We'll all have our opinions. How likely? I'd say something like 35%-50%.. towards the bottom of that range if he stays or is traded to a team that doesn't have a role/shots for him. I think most disagree but we've all seen multiple stretches of ~10 games where he's shooting near 40% from 3 and 80 from the line, on decently high volume. I don't expect that to be consistent starting next year but I don't think it's an impossible scenario for him to reach that in a year or two and stay there. If he's 35/75, he's a borderline all-star. If he's 40/80, it's all-nba territory.
2. He becomes a lockdown, on-ball defender. He has shown glimpses, in certain matchups, and his peaks indicate he may have that potential. His struggles indicate he won't do it consistently. He was our best option on both randle and ant in the wolves series. He also continues to struggle navigating screens and is super lost off ball. I'd put those chances at 15-25%. Towards the higher end of that range if he gets paid and either stays here (willingly) or goes to a winning organization. If he does that, he'd be able to keep his current offensive flaws but still reach replacement all-star level (ala siakam).
3. He develops his handle and vision to the point that he starts to create good offense for the team while still keeping his scoring punch. It would allow him to not have to become a 3pt threat if he becomes the creator that Paul George became. I'd put these odds at like 3%.
I'm fine if everyone else thinks my probabilities are off by a factor of 10. It's sports. We'll find out soon enough. 24 months ago, if anyone told me that Haliburton was going to doing this.. or ant would be the face of the league (unwillingly).. or luka would be in LA, I would have thought they were insane. Life comes at you fast.
https://youtu.be/iQeieQRYCOIThe first highlight in the video was why I thought JK could be special. That's a hell of a pass for a scoring forward to see, much less make, at 17 years old. He takes one dribble and that pass is out of his hands. "That pass," in this case, being a 45 foot bounce pass in stride to a Jalen Green in full sprint. THAT'S why I always thought he was talented but the "he doesn't get it and never will" crowd may end up being right.