2025 NBA Draft (2)

[FireMorey]

The Ringer updated their big board. They moved Bailey from 4 to 6 and put Tre 4th and Kon 5th.

[sodmoraes]

“Some years we expect July 1st to be the big time for offseason activity, I think the [NBA Draft] will be very big this time … Either [pick 2 or 3] I think have a chance to be in play. And I don’t know what’s going to happen with them … Maybe the Sixers will trade up with the Spurs? Maybe the Sixers will trade back? Maybe they’ll trade out? That’s going to be an interesting night.”

WindhorstESPN on NBA Today

Is Harper all that? I dont know, never was that impressed with him. He is a great driver, but his shooting seems a bit suspect. If we dont draft Ace i would go with Tre. Harper just doesnt scream superstar to me. People say he can be like Harden, but i dont see it, Harden was a pretty good shooter, who shot a lot off the dribble and was bigger.

[mjkvol]

I think he will take the guy he thinks has the best chance to be a 1A on a championship team, whoever that guy is. Not sure when you pick in the top 3 he's going to be focused on specific attributes unless they go into the likelihood that player becomes a 1A on a title team.

That's going to be difficult in that there are no real potential 1A's in this draft after Flagg. Trading back and staying in the lottery has to be option #1.

I think Harper has Harden-level upside, sans the number of FTA.

I hesitated to include him, but I'd pick him in a second if he's there.

[FireMorey]

Harper is good. Not sure I see elite superstar for Harper, but I see all star and if they can move up without an arm and a leg or if he's there at 3 then yeah he's the best option.

[ProcessDoctor]

I can see San Antonio believing that Harper is a better prospect than Ace, but not so much that they wouldn't consider extracting value to swap the two and commit to a Fox/Castle backcourt.

I feel like anything more than a future 1st swap (top-3 protected) and a couple of 2nds is an overpay from our end. I would not send an extra 1st to move up 1 spot.

[sodmoraes]

I can see San Antonio believing that Harper is a better prospect than Ace, but not so much that they wouldn't consider extracting value to swap the two and commit to a Fox/Castle backcourt.

I feel like anything more than a future 1st swap (top-3 protected) and a couple of 2nds is an overpay from our end. I would not send an extra 1st to move up 1 spot.

I agree. The way i see it, is that Harper is a slightly better prospect, because his floor is higher than Ace, but i think Bailey ceiling is higher. So Bailey has a bigger bust potential, but if he gets close to his potential he would be better than Harper. I wouldnt be surprised if San Antonio views that and pick Bailey, since they have a bit of logjam with their guards.

[Jojothewhale]

There is a ton of messaging out there about San Antonio. Every bit of it is that they're just staying and taking Harper. There hasn't been a single solid source that says anything but that as a firm decision.

[youngcrev]

I'd probably give up that LA pick to move up if it was in the table, but this:

There is a ton of messaging out there about San Antonio. Every bit of it is that they're just staying and taking Harper. There hasn't been a single solid source that says anything but that as a firm decision.

[mjkvol]

San Antonio drafting Bailey and then Morey trading #3 for a win-now piece would be the most Sixers thing ever.

[Stanford]

I'd trade 3 for Jokic

[Negrodamus]

I looked for a guard profile similar to SGA- freshmen that were decent passers, good at drawing fouls, weren't terrible at free throws, and could hit three pointers, and wasn't a munchkin.

AST% ≥ 15%
2P% ≥ 40%
3P% ≥ 33% / 3PA ≥ 50
FT% ≥ 70%
Height ≥ 6'5"
2PA ≥ 200

The players were:
James Harden
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Josh Green
Cooper Flagg
Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe

This made me interested in VJ for a minute until I realized that he was the shortest, one of the poorest shooters, worst at passing, worst at getting to the line.

Great company to be a part of, but he was closer to Josh Green than the rest of the guys which gives me pause. I might need to watch more video of him.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=31&minusage=24&minGP=15&mineFG=51&minAst=4&minStl=1&minFT=0.6&minftr=20&minht=75&minmidper=0.45&mingbpm=0&minogbpm=0&mindgbpm=0&yvalue=FrSo&cvalue=High%20Major&year=all&start=-11101&end=all0501

I tried to match some of Bailey's unique stats and returned basically just himself since his stats are very uniquely him. So I started tinkering with the stats: drop eFG%, AST%, STL%, FTr, FT%, Far 2FG% to see what FR and Soph since 2011 would appear.

Zion appears in here which is interesting. The others are... well, I'll let you all take a look.

[ProcessDoctor]

I looked for a guard profile similar to SGA- freshmen that were decent passers, good at drawing fouls, weren't terrible at free throws, and could hit three pointers, and wasn't a munchkin.

AST% ≥ 15%
2P% ≥ 40%
3P% ≥ 33% / 3PA ≥ 50
FT% ≥ 70%
Height ≥ 6'5"
2PA ≥ 200

The players were:
James Harden
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Josh Green
Cooper Flagg
Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe

This made me interested in VJ for a minute until I realized that he was the shortest, one of the poorest shooters, worst at passing, worst at getting to the line.

Great company to be a part of, but he was closer to Josh Green than the rest of the guys which gives me pause. I might need to watch more video of him.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=31&minusage=24&minGP=15&mineFG=51&minAst=4&minStl=1&minFT=0.6&minftr=20&minht=75&minmidper=0.45&mingbpm=0&minogbpm=0&mindgbpm=0&yvalue=FrSo&cvalue=High%20Major&year=all&start=-11101&end=all0501

I tried to match some of Bailey's unique stats and returned basically just himself since his stats are very uniquely him. So I started tinkering with the stats: drop eFG%, AST%, STL%, FTr, FT%, Far 2FG% to see what FR and Soph since 2011 would appear.

Zion appears in here which is interesting. The others are... well, I'll let you all take a look.

Damn he really is not analytics friendly.

Couldn’t even get the better Toppin lol.

I think if you’re seeing this, then Morey is too.

[Negrodamus]

I looked for a guard profile similar to SGA- freshmen that were decent passers, good at drawing fouls, weren't terrible at free throws, and could hit three pointers, and wasn't a munchkin.

AST% ≥ 15%
2P% ≥ 40%
3P% ≥ 33% / 3PA ≥ 50
FT% ≥ 70%
Height ≥ 6'5"
2PA ≥ 200

The players were:
James Harden
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Josh Green
Cooper Flagg
Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe

This made me interested in VJ for a minute until I realized that he was the shortest, one of the poorest shooters, worst at passing, worst at getting to the line.

Great company to be a part of, but he was closer to Josh Green than the rest of the guys which gives me pause. I might need to watch more video of him.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=31&minusage=24&minGP=15&mineFG=51&minAst=4&minStl=1&minFT=0.6&minftr=20&minht=75&minmidper=0.45&mingbpm=0&minogbpm=0&mindgbpm=0&yvalue=FrSo&cvalue=High%20Major&year=all&start=-11101&end=all0501

I tried to match some of Bailey's unique stats and returned basically just himself since his stats are very uniquely him. So I started tinkering with the stats: drop eFG%, AST%, STL%, FTr, FT%, Far 2FG% to see what FR and Soph since 2011 would appear.

Zion appears in here which is interesting. The others are... well, I'll let you all take a look.

Damn he really is not analytics friendly.

Couldn’t even get the better Toppin lol.

I think if you’re seeing this, then Morey is too.

It doesn't really improve much when you open it up to the upperclassmen too. Zion and DeAndre Hunter really are the ones who stand out.

One of the things we don't know that is found out behind closed doors is if there was an injury or something afflicting his play. Nothing seems to be holding him back while watching him, but I'd be asking some pretty pointed questions.

[Black Mage]

I looked for a guard profile similar to SGA- freshmen that were decent passers, good at drawing fouls, weren't terrible at free throws, and could hit three pointers, and wasn't a munchkin.

AST% ≥ 15%
2P% ≥ 40%
3P% ≥ 33% / 3PA ≥ 50
FT% ≥ 70%
Height ≥ 6'5"
2PA ≥ 200

The players were:
James Harden
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Josh Green
Cooper Flagg
Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe

This made me interested in VJ for a minute until I realized that he was the shortest, one of the poorest shooters, worst at passing, worst at getting to the line.

Great company to be a part of, but he was closer to Josh Green than the rest of the guys which gives me pause. I might need to watch more video of him.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=31&minusage=24&minGP=15&mineFG=51&minAst=4&minStl=1&minFT=0.6&minftr=20&minht=75&minmidper=0.45&mingbpm=0&minogbpm=0&mindgbpm=0&yvalue=FrSo&cvalue=High%20Major&year=all&start=-11101&end=all0501

I tried to match some of Bailey's unique stats and returned basically just himself since his stats are very uniquely him. So I started tinkering with the stats: drop eFG%, AST%, STL%, FTr, FT%, Far 2FG% to see what FR and Soph since 2011 would appear.

Zion appears in here which is interesting. The others are... well, I'll let you all take a look.

How about using the stats when Rutgers took their version of Ben Simmons off the court opening up space and all of his numbers, especially shooting %'s, went through the roof. See my prior post that apparently every anti-Ace'er is choosing to just ignore and pretend it doesn't exit.

[ProcessDoctor]

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=31&minusage=24&minGP=15&mineFG=51&minAst=4&minStl=1&minFT=0.6&minftr=20&minht=75&minmidper=0.45&mingbpm=0&minogbpm=0&mindgbpm=0&yvalue=FrSo&cvalue=High%20Major&year=all&start=-11101&end=all0501

I tried to match some of Bailey's unique stats and returned basically just himself since his stats are very uniquely him. So I started tinkering with the stats: drop eFG%, AST%, STL%, FTr, FT%, Far 2FG% to see what FR and Soph since 2011 would appear.

Zion appears in here which is interesting. The others are... well, I'll let you all take a look.

Damn he really is not analytics friendly.

Couldn’t even get the better Toppin lol.

I think if you’re seeing this, then Morey is too.

It doesn't really improve much when you open it up to the upperclassmen too. Zion and DeAndre Hunter really are the ones who stand out.

One of the things we don't know that is found out behind closed doors is if there was an injury or something afflicting his play. Nothing seems to be holding him back while watching him, but I'd be asking some pretty pointed questions.

On one hand, we were so lucky to grab the #3 pick (all four teams ahead of us dropped, which I still can't believe). On the other hand, it's a shame Ace couldn't be a straightforward pick, because I feel good/great about the top 2.

Speaking of Zion, I'd still trade down (Embiid) or out (George) of the draft for him. He's the only possible MVP-caliber talent attainable this summer besides Giannis, Flagg, and maybe Harper. Even if I'm okay with Ace/Edge, I don't see that in either of their futures.

[Negrodamus]

I looked for a guard profile similar to SGA- freshmen that were decent passers, good at drawing fouls, weren't terrible at free throws, and could hit three pointers, and wasn't a munchkin.

AST% ≥ 15%
2P% ≥ 40%
3P% ≥ 33% / 3PA ≥ 50
FT% ≥ 70%
Height ≥ 6'5"
2PA ≥ 200

The players were:
James Harden
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Josh Green
Cooper Flagg
Dylan Harper
VJ Edgecombe

This made me interested in VJ for a minute until I realized that he was the shortest, one of the poorest shooters, worst at passing, worst at getting to the line.

Great company to be a part of, but he was closer to Josh Green than the rest of the guys which gives me pause. I might need to watch more video of him.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=31&minusage=24&minGP=15&mineFG=51&minAst=4&minStl=1&minFT=0.6&minftr=20&minht=75&minmidper=0.45&mingbpm=0&minogbpm=0&mindgbpm=0&yvalue=FrSo&cvalue=High%20Major&year=all&start=-11101&end=all0501

I tried to match some of Bailey's unique stats and returned basically just himself since his stats are very uniquely him. So I started tinkering with the stats: drop eFG%, AST%, STL%, FTr, FT%, Far 2FG% to see what FR and Soph since 2011 would appear.

Zion appears in here which is interesting. The others are... well, I'll let you all take a look.

How about using the stats when Rutgers took their version of Ben Simmons off the court opening up space and all of his numbers, especially shooting %'s, went through the roof. See my prior post that apparently every anti-Ace'er is choosing to just ignore and pretend it doesn't exit.

I think it's a little interesting but also hard for me to wrap my head around using the #3 pick on a guy who was so heavily afflicted by a random journeyman. Like 22% difference at the rim because Jeremiah Williams wasn't on the floor? Was Harper suffering that much? Do you think any other top flight prospects would suffer that much by some role player on the roster?

[Negrodamus]

Also, running the numbers on that site:

Without Harper, Ace seems to shoot worse across the board (but his FTr goes up a little!)
Without Ace on the floor, Harper's 2FG at the rim balloons up to a crazy 79% 2FG% (up from 66%). His midrange and 3FG take a dip.

Should I read into it that Ace is affecting Harper's FG% at the rim or that Ace needs Harper to shoot better percentages?

[Negrodamus]

Am I understanding this right?

https://hoop-explorer.com/OnOffAnalyzer?autoOffQuery=true&baseQuery=&gender=Men&maxRank=400&minRank=0&offQuery=NOT%20%28%22Johnson%2C%20Tre%22%20%29&onQuery=%22Johnson%2C%20Tre%22%20&team=Texas&year=2024%2F25&

Texas was basically better in most facets when Tre wasn't on the court?

[Iverson Armband]

Am I understanding this right?

https://hoop-explorer.com/OnOffAnalyzer?autoOffQuery=true&baseQuery=&gender=Men&maxRank=400&minRank=0&offQuery=NOT%20%28%22Johnson%2C%20Tre%22%20%29&onQuery=%22Johnson%2C%20Tre%22%20&team=Texas&year=2024%2F25&

Texas was basically better in most facets when Tre wasn't on the court?

Do you really believe that team of scrubs would have won more than 19 games in the SEC without Tre? This is where the analytics stuff just goes off the rails.

[Jojothewhale]

You can get weird results with On-Offs, which is why I tend to not put much stock in them. They’re often a measure of bench strength and limited by sample size. We’ve all seen how that can happen with the Sixers over the last X years.

Jordan Pope had an eFG% over 21 points higher in non-Johnson Minutes. That’s probably not repeatable or instructive for example. But it might mean Pope’s game would scale well at the college level.