Post Mortem #27 - Minnesota Timberwolves

[Bobbymcgee]

T-Wolves should consider taking a step back and trading Gobert, Conley, and Randle (if he opts in) so they can continue to build around their young core.

[bbms]

i saw somebody calling for the timberwolves pick cp3 up to guide ant up.

that would be a solid move.

[djsunyc]

This WCF appearance is fool's gold. They got to play a Laker team with no center, and GSW with no Curry. Denver took OKC to Game 7, but MIN didn't come close.

injuries are part of the playoffs, not an asterisk. they've been to b2b conference finals. nothing foolish about that. have no clue if they can sustain but they've been hugely successful the last 2 seasons.

[Mi Scusi]

1. Trade Gobert
2. Trade Gobert again
3.
4. Profit?

[MoreyWins]

Bad defense, low IQ offense, and bad body language are all things that need to be addressed. Whether that be internal improvement, an outside hire, or doing away with certain players that check all three of those boxes.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Wolves finally ran out of gas after a tough Denver series. Time to move on from gobert and conley and bring in other vet voices while continuing to draft well. They are still heading in the right direction just need tweeks and rest.

Is this an AI post? Minnesota didn't play Denver.

Give the guy a break.

Maybe he's only 360+ days late with that post.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Wolves finally ran out of gas after a tough Denver series. Time to move on from gobert and conley and bring in other vet voices while continuing to draft well. They are still heading in the right direction just need tweeks and rest.

Is this an AI post? Minnesota didn't play Denver.

Give the guy a break.

Maybe he's only 360+ days late with that post.

Slow Wifi

[Biff Cooper]

Question 4 is a tough one with this team. They can't really be called an improving team as they are a second apron team who are likely going to have to sacrifice a starter and a rotation player or two rotation players this off-season. I also have trouble calling them a declining team as Ant and McDaniels are still very young, Gobert and DiVincenzo are solid, and Dillingham, Shannon, Clark, Miller, two top 31 picks in the draft, and possibly Minot are waiting for their opportunities. I called them treadmill, even though they are likely to look quite a bit different next season.

[whatisacenter]

They peaked last year.

[sp6r=underrated]

I selected: Keep HC/FO, performed as expected and improving team.

I briefly want to explain why I selected improving team for Minnesota. Treadmill is a really derogatory term in basketball circles for a team drifting aimlessly. Minnesota has played in two straight WCFs. The connotations associated with treadmill doesn't really fit Minnesota. They have a good team their fans can be excited about and it is making deep playoff runs. Following a team like Minnesota is fun and that isn't what the term treadmill tries to capture.

Do whatever it takes to get Durant without having to give up Ant, Gobert, or McDaniels.

Durant has made himself and everyone around him miserable going back to his final year in San Francisco, when he was in the best possible situation any player gets to be in. It is far more likely Durant sours the mood in Minnesota due to his jealousy of teammates than it is he gets them over the hump against OKC.

Minnesota should avoid Durant like the plague. As should any team outside of the Houston Rockets. The Rockets are the one team in a city he could like, that could acquire Durant and contend with Durant getting almost all the credit if they win it. That is the only situation that will make Durant happy.

This WCF appearance is fool's gold. They got to play a Laker team with no center, and GSW with no Curry. Denver took OKC to Game 7, but MIN didn't come close.

1. They made the WCF last year too.
2. Their MOV over LA/GSW was impressive.
3. Their Margin of defeat against OKC was the best of OKC's three opponents. They weren't close to beating OKC but frankly Denver wasn't either. That series was like Atlanta pushing Boston in 2008 to a G7.
4. The rings or bust mindset is toxic and calling consecutive WCF appearances fool's gold betrays that mindset.

If it happens, feels like it's going to have to come from Ant reaching a new tier.

This is basically correct but that doesn't reflect poorly on Minnesota's management. Basketball is a low variance sport. The NBA has a best of seven, four round playoff format that makes fluke championships very unlikely. Minnesota built a very good supporting cast around Ant. They're a fun team to watch. Their MOV is just below the level of normal championship team. That's good stuff that Minnesota, my former home, should feel good about.

There isn't anything they can do about OKC beyond hoping for regression. But if Ant makes the leap they'll be playing at the level of a normal title team. And that's about as good of an outcome as you can realistically hope for.

2 consecutive Western finals and your best player is 23 years old only. Dont understand the doom talks.

Intellectually I understand how basketball culture got to the spot it did but it really sucks. We've now reached the point where a ton of fans are just super negative about basically anyone who isn't the best player in the NBA and any team that isn't the best team in the NBA.

That mindset leads to the fetish for rebuilding because people find it intolerable to have a team that probably can't win a title even if it is really good. And that just sucks.

My 2 cents is this roster has maxed out and they need to reset, anybody not on Ant's timeline should be shown the door ASAP.

Try to put together a roster that can content for real, this ain't it.

Most re-sets fail and the likely outcome of a Minnesota re-set is you just end up with a worse team and Edwards leaving.

Which trade was worse? 5x FRPs for Rudy Gobert or 5x FRPs for Mikal Bridges?

I think the Gobert trade looks awful . . . . . . for Utah. The Wolves have gotten several good years out of Gobert and a fun team to watch that their fans can enjoy. I'd much rather have that than hanging around at 42 wins hoping for the 13th pick to land.

It is really, really hard when you have to squint to tell if your best player is a Top 10 player in the NBA. Minnesota has made back-to-back NBA Semi-Finals in a difficult conference without a top-tier star. The last time that happened was 2013 and 2014 with the Spurs.

The KAT/Randle trade was a step in the right direction--taking a step back in terms of raw talent for flexibility and assets. They picked up a good pick, #17 while DDV is a good trade chip and/or a good rotation player for the next 2-3 years at a great number coming in at sub-MLE.

The next step forward for Minnesota will be from internal growth with their younger players (McDaniels, Shannon, Dillingham, Clark, Miller, #17, #31, 2026 1st) and whatever next level Anthony Edwards can achieve. Edwards has improved every year of his career and typically adds a new layer to his game.

Great post, I fully agree with what you wrote here. It also captures why I'm not a fan of re-sets. Unless you really think you're somehow going to acquire another player as good as Ant via a re-set the most likely outcome is the team struggles, Ant becomes disillusioned and he walks.

This team probably isn't going to win a title but it is a fun team their fans can enjoy. The idea that should leap into radical restructuring is just nuts. Instead they should either Ant makes the leap to a true MVP level player or the supporting guys all make a leap. And if not they should enjoy rooting for a good club that has a puncher's chance if they get some lucky breaks in the post-season.

[Black Jack]

My 2 cents is this roster has maxed out and they need to reset, anybody not on Ant's timeline should be shown the door ASAP.

Try to put together a roster that can content for real, this ain't it.

Most re-sets fail and the likely outcome of a Minnesota re-set is you just end up with a worse team and Edwards leaving.

Nah you gotta turn those big money vets into younger players that fit the timeline. I would prefer to take a step back for a year or two if I was Minny. This roster is maxed out vs OKC and its only gonna get worse from here. Ant working on his jumper isn't going to fix it.

[Black Feet]

My 2 cents is this roster has maxed out and they need to reset, anybody not on Ant's timeline should be shown the door ASAP.

Try to put together a roster that can content for real, this ain't it.

Most re-sets fail and the likely outcome of a Minnesota re-set is you just end up with a worse team and Edwards leaving.

Nah you gotta turn those big money vets into younger players that fit the timeline. I would prefer to take a step back for a year or two if I was Minny. This roster is maxed out vs OKC and it’s only gonna get worse from here. Ant working on his jumper isn't going to fix it.

If they keep the same core they are not making it to the Western conference finals again.

[DonaldSanders]

Solid season. Got a bit lucky in the first round, but they won 49 games, did way better after the trade than expected and were 3 wins away from the Finals. Couldn't defend the Thunder and OKC got into Ant pretty badly on defense, which took his scoring game down a peg.

That's a pretty good year for the TWolves, really.

What was lucky in the first round? That they drew the Lakers? Seemed like they were clearly the better team.

[Mags FTW]

This WCF appearance is fool's gold. They got to play a Laker team with no center, and GSW with no Curry. Denver took OKC to Game 7, but MIN didn't come close.

1. They made the WCF last year too.
2. Their MOV over LA/GSW was impressive.
3. Their Margin of defeat against OKC was the best of OKC's three opponents. They weren't close to beating OKC but frankly Denver wasn't either. That series was like Atlanta pushing Boston in 2008 to a G7.
4. The rings or bust mindset is toxic and calling consecutive WCF appearances fool's gold betrays that mindset.

1) That's why I said "this appearance". Last year was last year with a different path and a different team.
2) & 3) Pointless stat skewed by blowout games. There is no logical argument you can make that DEN didn't play OKC tougher and was close to winning the series. They were winning in the 4th quarter of G5 with a chance to go up 3-2 and have a home closeout game.
4) A conference finals appearance is only halfway to a title. The Wolves' appearances are being inflated in value because they were last there 20 years ago.

[tsherkin]

Solid season. Got a bit lucky in the first round, but they won 49 games, did way better after the trade than expected and were 3 wins away from the Finals. Couldn't defend the Thunder and OKC got into Ant pretty badly on defense, which took his scoring game down a peg.

That's a pretty good year for the TWolves, really.

What was lucky in the first round? That they drew the Lakers? Seemed like they were clearly the better team.

That they drew the Lakers and survived a fairly mediocre performance from Ant in the doing, yes.

[Black Jack]

You need two star offensive players to win a title generally. And the Timberwolves have one star player.

Look at the last few title winners:
Boston - Tatum, Brown
Nuggets - Jokic, Murray
Warriors - Curry, Klay
Bucks - Giannis, Jrue
Lakers - LeBron, Davis
Raptoers - Kawhi, Siakam

Even title losers like last years Mavs have two star offensive players.

Not sure why Minny thinks Ant plus role players can ever win a title? Even Jordan needed a Pippen.

[Pointgod]

T-Wolves are one of the most fascinating teams this offseason. Objectively it’s impressive that they made back to back WCF, especially in a tough West with a high level of completion. But also they’ll need to make so many decisions and fill holes as well because of the luxury tax. Their franchise all NBA player is still only 23! This might be their most important offseason that makes or breaks the team.

[TheZachAttack]

The Timberwolves desperately need more ball-handling, initiation, and shot creation around Ant. Teams can overload on Ant without much worry at all. I would also like to see them get younger, more athletic, and play faster. They have some of the pieces internally to do this with Rob, Shannon, and Clark. They also have #17 and #33 in the draft.

From my perspective, Naz/NAW/Randle are all expendable depending on the contract they want. In an ideal world, they trade Gobert but I don't see how that happens. In Game 4, the Thunder doubled Edwards on over 60% of his possessions and face guarded him all over the floor -- the Wolves struggle to punish or even get defenses into rotation despite how much they overload on Ant (more-so than other star players because of the lack of threats).

They desperately need more ball-handling, initiation, and for that matter consistent shooting -- which they do have to some extent -- but IMO is inconsistent because they don't have enough ball handlers and initiators that can let their play finishers by play finishers. The whole rotation was basically slotting up 1-2 spots in advantage creation and initiation -- this is the biggest thing that burned them.

In addition, the Wolves own their own FRP next year. If there is a year to at least "risk" a step back. It's next year.

[firedavidkahn]

This WCF appearance is fool's gold. They got to play a Laker team with no center, and GSW with no Curry. Denver took OKC to Game 7, but MIN didn't come close.

injuries are part of the playoffs, not an asterisk. they've been to b2b conference finals. nothing foolish about that. have no clue if they can sustain but they've been hugely successful the last 2 seasons.

Our team was 100% legit this year. We had the 4th highest net rating in the league. We just severely underperformed in clutch situations in the regular season which hurt our record. To say we didn't belong is laughable.

[The-Power]

You need two star offensive players to win a title generally. And the Timberwolves have one star player.

Look at the last few title winners:
Boston - Tatum, Brown
Nuggets - Jokic, Murray
Warriors - Curry, Klay
Bucks - Giannis, Jrue
Lakers - LeBron, Davis
Raptoers - Kawhi, Siakam

Even title losers like last years Mavs have two star offensive players.

Not sure why Minny thinks Ant plus role players can ever win a title? Even Jordan needed a Pippen.

That's a very loose definition of ‘offensive star’ if you count Jrue, post-injury Klay and 2019 Siakam. At that point you might as well include Randle.