Last 26 years West nearly doubles East in championships

[cgf]

And yet, 4 of the top 6 teams this year were in the east. Balance of power has shifted.

West has won 55.1% of its games against the East this year https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/east_vs_west.html

The German men’s national football team has 4 World Cup titles (1954, 1974, 1990, & 2014) and 3 European championships (1972, 1980, 1996). And are amongst the favorites to win next summer as long as Wirtz & Musiala are both healthy.

Or are we not just sharing random factoids and you think that western conference teams beating Toronto or Charlotte has anything to do with Indiana, Boston, Cleveland, or New York?

The east having two more tanking teams doesn’t change the fact that the best teams this season were Boston / Cleveland / OKC & Indiana / Minnesota / New York. The non-OKC west was just way more mid than people want to admit…despite having so many players that used to be great and Wemby.

Indiana had a better win rate against the west, Boston & Cleveland were basically even…Cleveland a fraction of a percent better, Boston a fraction of a percent worse. New York was worse against the west by a game or two…but only because Brunson got hurt at the start of a west coast trip; if he had been hurt at the end of that trip our record would’ve been better against the west than the east.

[jkvonny]

Minus the ring chasers coalition (Lakers/GSW) you still had a bunch of good ones come through in the West in the past 2 decades (Mavs, Spurs, Nuggets, soon to be Thunder etc).

Two of GSWs championships were with all home grown stars. I can understand separating out the 2 KD ships, but not the others.

True. Agreed.

[ImmortalD24]

And yet, 4 of the top 6 teams this year were in the east. Balance of power has shifted.

West has won 55.1% of its games against the East this year https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/east_vs_west.html

At one point.. 21 out of 22 seasons West has won h2h in that span. Could've been 24 out of 26 if the West didn't fumble in the 2021-22 season by a mere 3 games. Whole careers came and left only seeing Eastern Conference winning once head to head. Talk about dominance. Yikes.

[cgf]

And yet, 4 of the top 6 teams this year were in the east. Balance of power has shifted.

4 of the top 6 teams by what measure?

By record, the East had only 3 of the top-5 teams and then there were 4 teams tied for 6th with 50 wins each. But records are biased because the West is tougher top-to-bottom than the East so the top West teams had a more difficult in-conference schedule. By SRS, the East had only 2 of the top-8 teams.

Moreover, the trajectory for the East going forward is not promising. Boston is entering massive decline, Cleveland has to prove it's not a paper tiger after losing in the semis to a team which won 14 fewer games, Milwaukee has been in decline for awhile and now might lose Giannis, New York is mid, Philly can't get their sh*t together and while Orlando and Detroit are promising young teams, both have yet to win a playoff series.

Folks can disagree…there’s only so many hours one can devote to watching the nba…but all season I said the top 6 teams were Boston / Cleveland / OKC & New York / Indiana / Minnesota. And the playoffs have only reinforced that conviction.

I am sympathetic to the desire to make this as objective a discussion as possible, but the nba’s format makes that an ultimately fruitless exercise because the purpose of the regular season isn’t to win as many games as possible to determine the champion…it is to best position yourself for the postseason tournament that decides the champion, and the postseason is too small a sample size.

So SRS will only ever tell us who had the best regular season performance on the whole, not who is the best team in a vacuum / best suited for the playoffs…especially as the gap between regular season and postseason officiating grows & the value of home court diminishes.

For example, SRS will miss teams who made big trades that they had to develop chemistry after, like New York & Minnesota this season, and Indiana last season. It will overvalue teams that go balls to the walls in the regular season like OKC and Houston, while undervaluing a banged up team that’s just trying to get into the tourney and get healthy for the tourney, like New York.

That’s why I said before the 2nd round that I thought both series in the east were toss ups, before any injuries, despite the metrics. Indiana was better than their 10-15 start made them look and we became a different team after getting healthy & having the Pistons toughen us up.

But the Knicks, pacers, and wolves showed all season that they had the pieces to contend against the top tier, if they were healthy and brought their a-game.

I’ll get back to respond about the future, as I think you continue to underestimate the Knicks & Cavs, while forgetting about Detroit / Orlando & even Atlanta if JJ can stay healthy…but my comment was just about this season.

Looping back to discuss the future now that I've got stuff started at work.

Boston will be a play-in team at best until Tatum’s back and then who knows what they'll be when he gets back...or how close to this Tatum, they'll even get back...while Milwaukee will stay mid at best whether Gianni’s leaves or not, Miami has no #1, and Philly are washed up...although the #3 pick, Maxey, Grimes, and McCain, isn't a bad start to the rebuild...but:

- Indiana isn’t going away. They could lose Obi and TJ to the apron but I like Jarace Walker more than Obi anyway; while Nembhard can fill the backup pg minutes, although the kid they have behind TJ (Quenton Jackson) looks like a player in his own right...and getting Isaiah Jackson back to replace Bryant should make a palpable difference if he hasn't lost his springiness.

- Cleveland getting injured and losing to an excellent Indiana team doesn’t make them paper tigers…even if they were the other top 4 team I feared the least before the playoffs started; they’re still really good when their top 4 are fit. And despite losing some depth to the cap, could be much stronger if Garland & Mobley continue to improve.

- If the Knicks are mid after what they did to Boston, then OKC is the only non-mid team in the west lol. But New York should be better next season either way; after a training camp with both towns & Robinson, the tax payer MLE to snag an 8th man, and an offseason for one of Kolek / McCullar / Hukporti to stake a claim to a rotation spot.

- You’re under-rating Orlando and Detroit, they are just as tough as Houston, who just got the 2 seed out west…only they have young #1s to go with their terrifying defenses. And if you’re pencilling Giannis onto the rockets, why not pencil Lauri onto the Pistons? Or Coby White + Cam Johnson on Orlando? Those are more likely to happen & more realistically upgrade those teams into contenders.

- Then there’s Atlanta who are a .500 team that punches up well, whenever JJ is healthy. Trae undermines the defense too much without someone like Mitch replacing Capela's ghost...but Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, & Terrance Mann, are an excellent supporting cast for him; plus Risacher could be in a for a nice sophomore bounce and both Gueye / Krejci looked like players.

- And who knows what’ll happen with Toronto if they stay healthy. I don't like their offense...and like Houston don't think they have a young #1 of the future to groom, already in house...but their defense was so good it screwed up their tank even without an offense.

If BI can be just a passable #1 for them, that could let everyone slide into roles they are better suited for; RJ as the #2; Quickley as the #3; Dick as the flamethrowing 6th man who can step in whenever RJ or IQ has an off night. While Barnes focuses on being the supped up Draymond that he was always supposed to become...whether next to Poeltl or as a smallball 5.

Given how mid the non-OKC west is, we could see more of the top teams coming from the east next season, as well...especially if Minnesota has to lose Randle or Reid for cap reasons.

[druggas]

6 of those titles were the result of guys signing with the Lakers or Warriors to make movies or ring chase.

Shaq signed with the Lakers.
Kobe demanded that the Lakers draft him.
KD signed with the Warriors.
LeBron signed with the Lakers.
AD demanded a trade to the Lakers.

That isn't shrewd management. It's having a market advantage over other cities.

What about New York, don’t they have a market advantage?

New York is cold. There is a reason why every player would sacrifice their own mother to live in LA, especially when the team is trash/mediocre, as was the case when Shaq and LeBron signed with them. There was no basketball reason for them to go there. It purely for the weather and endorsements, and the knowledge that others would follow for the same reasons.

When Shaq signed, they were already a playoff team. Do some research.

[toooskies]

The West is, in general, better than the East because the East has a few owners (Charlotte, Washington to name the most prominent) who are just happy to have a team in the NBA rather than deliver a winning product. The West has comparatively fewer teams that are going through the motions rather than investing in both on-court and off-court expenses.

But let's examine how picking endpoints matters. The East has won 3 out of the last 6 titles and 6 of the last 13 titles in the sample. Yes, the West is generally slightly better, but not nearly to the degree conveyed in the media.

[zimpy27]

And over the last 40 years it's like 20-20

[Raps in 4]

What about New York, don’t they have a market advantage?

New York is cold. There is a reason why every player would sacrifice their own mother to live in LA, especially when the team is trash/mediocre, as was the case when Shaq and LeBron signed with them. There was no basketball reason for them to go there. It purely for the weather and endorsements, and the knowledge that others would follow for the same reasons.

When Shaq signed, they were already a playoff team. Do some research.

That's why I said trash/mediocre. He was leaving a 60-win team to sign with a 48-win team.

[jehosafats]

The Heatles won 77% of their regular season games against Western conference teams.

[sp6r=underrated]

Since MJ's Bulls.. 1999 to 2024

West (17): 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023

East (9) : 2004, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2021, 2024


West has more ambitious newer owners, better GMs/ Front Offices, scouting and some luck in drafts I expect this trend to continue for some time especially if Giannis heads West. When will the league address this disparity in conferences?

Edit:
It gets even worse head to head during the regular season:

West has won 55.1% of its games against the East this year https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/east_vs_west.html

Since 1999-00 to now West has won 6,298 games in 10,844 head to head matches in the regular season.. that's over 58% of games.



At one point.. 21 out of 22 seasons West has won h2h in that span. Could've been 24 out of 26 if the West didn't fumble in the 2021-22 season by a mere 3 games. Whole careers came and left only seeing Eastern Conference winning once head to head. Talk about dominance. Yikes.

Honestly the ratio of elite teams is probably more lopsided as the East has won a few titles over that span with teams I think would have failed to have gotten through in the West.

I'm not sure why it is so lopsided. Here are the possible reasons:

1. The West has better cities.

Each conference has one of the mega-markets (NYC/LA). Both conferences have a good split of the next level cities. The East has Chicago, Atlanta, Miami and the West has Dallas, Houston and Phoenix.

2. The West has gotten luckier in the draft.

There is truth to this. The West has gotten a bit luckier in having elite players begin their career in the Western Conference but it is not a huge imbalance.

3. The West just got lucky in the finals.

As discussed by others this is just false. The West was way deeper than the East too for most of the years.

4. The bad owners are concentrated in the East.

There is some truth here. Dolan ran the Knicks into the ground for the better part of two decades. Reinsdorf is an example of where the owner's objective, guaranteed profit, really goes against fan interest. In the West the only really bad big market owner was Sterling and he's been gone for about a decade.

[Lalouie]

oh well

[floppymoose]

Wouldnt Sarver count as bad western owner?

[Wingy]

[
I'm not sure why it is so lopsided. Here are the possible reasons:

1. The West has better cities.

Each conference has one of the mega-markets (NYC/LA). Both conferences have a good split of the next level cities. The East has Chicago, Atlanta, Miami and the West has Dallas, Houston and Phoenix.

…

4. The bad owners are concentrated in the East.

There is some truth here. Dolan ran the Knicks into the ground for the better part of two decades. Reinsdorf is an example of where the owner's objective, guaranteed profit, really goes against fan interest. In the West the only really bad big market owner was Sterling and he's been gone for about a decade.

Want to focus on your points 1 and 4.

#4 owners have teams in the ‘next level cities’ you pointed out in 1. They wipe away some of the East’s key ammo there.

You were 100% correct picking out the asshats in Reinsdorf and co. They are trash. The most recognized international brand in perhaps all of sports thanks to MJ, and they act like a poverty center.

Chicago. Atlanta. Miami.
They are all focused on being treadmill, definition of mid. Mid of the mid.

Maybe things will shift now with the idiot Dumonts and Ishbias of the west, but dumb as they are, at least they have ambition.

[sp6r=underrated]

[
I'm not sure why it is so lopsided. Here are the possible reasons:

1. The West has better cities.

Each conference has one of the mega-markets (NYC/LA). Both conferences have a good split of the next level cities. The East has Chicago, Atlanta, Miami and the West has Dallas, Houston and Phoenix.

…

4. The bad owners are concentrated in the East.

There is some truth here. Dolan ran the Knicks into the ground for the better part of two decades. Reinsdorf is an example of where the owner's objective, guaranteed profit, really goes against fan interest. In the West the only really bad big market owner was Sterling and he's been gone for about a decade.

Want to focus on your points 1 and 4.

#4 owners have teams in the ‘next level cities’ you pointed out in 1. They wipe away some of the East’s key ammo there.

You were 100% correct picking out the asshats in Reinsdorf and co. They are trash. The most recognized international brand in perhaps all of sports thanks to MJ, and they act like a poverty center.

Chicago. Atlanta. Miami.
They are all focused on being treadmill, definition of mid. Mid of the mid.

Maybe things will shift now with the idiot Dumonts and Ishbias of the west, but dumb as they are, at least they have ambition.

I don't get deriding Miami. They've been very successful with their approach to team building over decades. Maybe it won't work this time but I can fault them for sticking with it. Even this decade they have been in 3 conference finals in 6 years and the finals twice.

That's way different than what goes on in Chicago. I like the way you call Reinsdorf in asshat. He really is. Say what you will about the warriors decisions this decade but they are trying to milk the Curry era for as much as it is worth. Reinsdorf just looked at the bulls as too costly, pulled the plug and hasn't given a **** since.

[Wingy]

I don't get deriding Miami. They've been very successful with their approach to team building over decades. Maybe it won't work this time but I can fault them for sticking with it. Even this decade they have been in 3 conference finals in 6 years and the finals twice.

That's way different than what goes on in Chicago. I like the way you call Reinsdorf in asshat. He really is. Say what you will about the warriors decisions this decade but they are trying to milk the Curry era for as much as it is worth. Reinsdorf just looked at the bulls as too costly, pulled the plug and hasn't given a **** since.

Miami got lucky that Jimmy reached a level that no one except he would’ve predicted. Then they sat on their hands after Finals and ECF runs and did nothing except add a washing out Scary Terry…and even then with more draft ammo did nothing to try to improve that team. Yeah, they struck out on some big names, but to not go for any alternatives after that when you’re that close is pretty egregious IMO.

Absolutely on the Bulls. Karnisovas is one of the absolute worst in the league. I still follow boxscores and our board, but I basically never post about the team anymore other than to bash the ownership and the FO. Basically given up…didn’t watch a second of their regular season that wasn’t on a highlight vid…despite having access to League Pass creds. Why bother if they don’t?

[sp6r=underrated]

I don't get deriding Miami. They've been very successful with their approach to team building over decades. Maybe it won't work this time but I can fault them for sticking with it. Even this decade they have been in 3 conference finals in 6 years and the finals twice.

That's way different than what goes on in Chicago. I like the way you call Reinsdorf in asshat. He really is. Say what you will about the warriors decisions this decade but they are trying to milk the Curry era for as much as it is worth. Reinsdorf just looked at the bulls as too costly, pulled the plug and hasn't given a **** since.

Miami got lucky that Jimmy reached a level that no one except he would’ve predicted. Then they sat on their hands after Finals and ECF runs and did nothing except add a washing out Scary Terry…and even then with more draft ammo did nothing to try to improve that team. Yeah, they struck out on some big names, but to not go for any alternatives after that when you’re that close is pretty egregious IMO.

I very strongly disagree with you on Miami. Signing a good, older player is exactly the opposite approach of people who promote tanking. To their credit they identified Butler was an undervalued player and decided to build around him. I respect that even if it ended ugly.

I just think building title teams is next to impossible unless you get lucky in draft or an MVP level player decides to come to your team. Given that when I see success like Miami I see them as doing a good job.

Absolutely on the Bulls. Karnisovas is one of the absolute worst in the league. I still follow boxscores and our board, but I basically never post about the team anymore other than to bash the ownership and the FO. Basically given up…didn’t watch a second of their regular season that wasn’t on a highlight vid…despite having access to League Pass creds. Why bother if they don’t?

They just need Reinsdorf to die or sell the team. They are screwed until they do. Because he is a brutal owner to work for. He got totally lucky with the 90s bulls and frankly I don't even think he cared about em.

[mademan]

Hard to get around the West just drafting the best players. I mean even the ecf best players were mostly drafted by the west (Hali/Brunson/Towns vs Siakam)

Ya location plays a part, but call it luck or management, for some reason, western conference teams draft the best players

[Special_Puppy]

I don't get deriding Miami. They've been very successful with their approach to team building over decades. Maybe it won't work this time but I can fault them for sticking with it. Even this decade they have been in 3 conference finals in 6 years and the finals twice.

That's way different than what goes on in Chicago. I like the way you call Reinsdorf in asshat. He really is. Say what you will about the warriors decisions this decade but they are trying to milk the Curry era for as much as it is worth. Reinsdorf just looked at the bulls as too costly, pulled the plug and hasn't given a **** since.

Miami got lucky that Jimmy reached a level that no one except he would’ve predicted. Then they sat on their hands after Finals and ECF runs and did nothing except add a washing out Scary Terry…and even then with more draft ammo did nothing to try to improve that team. Yeah, they struck out on some big names, but to not go for any alternatives after that when you’re that close is pretty egregious IMO.

I very strongly disagree with you on Miami. Signing a good, older player is exactly the opposite approach of people who promote tanking. To their credit they identified Butler was an undervalued player and decided to build around him. I respect that even if it ended ugly.

I just think building title teams is next to impossible unless you get lucky in draft or an MVP level player decides to come to your team. Given that when I see success like Miami I see them as doing a good job.

Absolutely on the Bulls. Karnisovas is one of the absolute worst in the league. I still follow boxscores and our board, but I basically never post about the team anymore other than to bash the ownership and the FO. Basically given up…didn’t watch a second of their regular season that wasn’t on a highlight vid…despite having access to League Pass creds. Why bother if they don’t?

They just need Reinsdorf to die or sell the team. They are screwed until they do. Because he is a brutal owner to work for. He got totally lucky with the 90s bulls and frankly I don't even think he cared about em.

I would honestly love to go into one of those front office meetings and see what they're thinking. Forget winning a title. What's their plan to get to 55+ wins or getting out of the first round.

[ProcessDoctor]

More reason for Giannis to stay in the East.

[morosis]

1-16 seeding in the playoffs when.

shorten regular season, 1-16 seeding in playoffs, no need for WC and EC to both be represented in the finals, 2-3-2 format for all 7 game series with 2 days between games on all travel cycles to allow for the hypothetical portland vs miami series or los angeles vs new york series that the current playoff structure is designed to avoid.

if the point of the nba season is truly to find the best team, then the priority should be ensuring the 2 best teams play in the finals. current system does not do a good job of that. 1-16 would not be a fix but it would be better. regardless of which part of the historical cycle we are in and which conference is stronger at the time, for the last 50 years there has always been one conference stronger than the other either in terms of top-heaviness of teams or depth of teams or both, so making sure that does not impact which teams make it to the finals should be a thing we want to do. idrc if its two east teams in the finals or two west teams. if they are good enough to get there, i will watch. if they are historical rivals or not i will watch. because its the two best teams.