2025 NBA Draft (2)

[76ciology]

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So 6’6” Nikola Jokic?

[Iverson Armband]

Is Risacher a better prospect than Ace? Curious what the board thinks.

[M2J]

Is Risacher a better prospect than Ace? Curious what the board thinks.

No

[Kobblehead]

Is Risacher a better prospect than Ace? Curious what the board thinks.

Not in my eyes. Risacher had rebounding and block numbers of a G, as opposed to a F. And then he measured with just a 6'9" wingspan.

[zaz102]

I aggregated rankings from respected sources' mock drafts and big boards (sources listed in first post's notes). Thought I would share it for those interested.

From a Sixers' fan perspective, It's probably more interesting to look who might be available for the second round pick. Per the aggregated rankings, Johni Broome is at #35 with Bogoljub Markovic at #34 and Kam Jones at #36.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2461450

[Black Mage]

Kon Kneuppel was a much better shooter off the dribble in high school and also had a solid post game. However, he struggled finishing at the rim and got blocked often.. he just wasn’t as crafty back then as he is now. Interestingly, that trend flipped at Duke. Some experts believe he still has offensive upside, pointing to his high school flashes as a shot creator and playmaker.

A lot of that appears to be him playing against midgets as one of our posters used to love to call them. He looked like a behemoth against his competition. In college with equally sized matchups the added length and physicality obviously affected his comfort level. It's a legitimate concern how he transitions to NBA length, speed, physicality.

[Black Mage]

The team has needed a rebounding/2-way PF every year I've followed this team.

Can that be got in the draft?
If not, are we drafting another combo guard and trading Maxey for an all-star level SF/PF ?

What's the best outcome?

I see a lot of 6'7" - 6'10" talent in next year's draft.

Considering Embiid's contract end date as a major milestone, wouldn't it be prudent to try and get young talent each year until that year, giving them a chance to develop, before having ~$69 million freed up in cap space, to sign a star and or pay our youth coming off rookie contracts?

His last year as an expiring could be of value to a team wanting the salary cap the following year.


2027-28: $64,302,336
2028-29: $69,065,472 (Player Option)

I see Paul George has a 15% trade bonus poison pill for any team seeing him as an expiring contract for his final player option contract year.

You’d have to trade up in the draft for that. Asa Newell and Collin Murray-Boyles fit the bill. The latter might be more reasonable to get. I think Newell goes late lottery or just outside of it.

Sixers first rd pick in 2026 is top 4 protected so it’s basically going to Okc. Unless disaster strikes again.

Sort of the opposite of that.

Trade back to get 4, 5, or 6 this year, plus that team's unprotected pick next year as the core of the trade.

Except no team is going to make that swap at 4, 5 or 6. You'd have to start getting into the 8, 9, 10 range and now you're talking teams that might not be in the lottery next year.

The No Dunks guy went over a PhillyVoice article that reviewed trade down trades that have occurred since 2000. In every case, except for the OJ Mayo/Kevin Love deal the team trading down got the worse of the two players and "lost" the trade. The moral of the story, trading down is a losing bet.

[Negrodamus]

You’d have to trade up in the draft for that. Asa Newell and Collin Murray-Boyles fit the bill. The latter might be more reasonable to get. I think Newell goes late lottery or just outside of it.

Sixers first rd pick in 2026 is top 4 protected so it’s basically going to Okc. Unless disaster strikes again.

Sort of the opposite of that.

Trade back to get 4, 5, or 6 this year, plus that team's unprotected pick next year as the core of the trade.

Except no team is going to make that swap at 4, 5 or 6. You'd have to start getting into the 8, 9, 10 range and now you're talking teams that might not be in the lottery next year.

The No Dunks guy went over a PhillyVoice article that reviewed trade down trades that have occurred since 2000. In every case, except for the OJ Mayo/Kevin Love deal the team trading down got the worse of the two players and "lost" the trade. The moral of the story, trading down is a losing bet.

Tatum/Fultz trade? I’d say the Celtics won.

[Snotbubbles]

I can also stomach Tre Johnson. I don't think he'll ever be a good defensive player, but I can see him becoming taller Jamal Murray. The fit is a disaster but I fully trust the off the dribble shot translating to the next level, particularly from three. Would love him to become something better near the rim though, particularly as it relates to drawing fouls.

I would think the team expects to need to trade Maxey or McCain if they take Tre. You'd probably have to use one of them to go land a wing defender. Watching more of his off-ball coming off set screens and staggers and I don't think Murray is the right comp, poor man's Steph was my thought. Gotta remember Steph came out as a junior or senior so need to go back to his freshman year in a minor conference.

I previously said I'd rule out Tre b/c of the defense; but if Morey sees a possible future Steph level offensive weapon then it makes sense at 3 and you just accept one of McCain or Maxey is getting traded.

I was thinking the same thing and wouldn't be opposed. Like maybe a Maxey for Zion Williamson type deal.

[Black Mage]

I can also stomach Tre Johnson. I don't think he'll ever be a good defensive player, but I can see him becoming taller Jamal Murray. The fit is a disaster but I fully trust the off the dribble shot translating to the next level, particularly from three. Would love him to become something better near the rim though, particularly as it relates to drawing fouls.

I would think the team expects to need to trade Maxey or McCain if they take Tre. You'd probably have to use one of them to go land a wing defender. Watching more of his off-ball coming off set screens and staggers and I don't think Murray is the right comp, poor man's Steph was my thought. Gotta remember Steph came out as a junior or senior so need to go back to his freshman year in a minor conference.

I previously said I'd rule out Tre b/c of the defense; but if Morey sees a possible future Steph level offensive weapon then it makes sense at 3 and you just accept one of McCain or Maxey is getting traded.

I was thinking the same thing and wouldn't be opposed. Like maybe a Maxey for Zion Williamson type deal.

It would almost have to be Maxey b/c it's likely you're bringing back a guy on their 2nd contract. McCain's deal will make him really hard to deal while matching costs. If you think we can just dump George; then now you have to expect to pay a premium to get off that deal or bring in a 3rd team that will want compensation to take it on.

So if you look at Kon/Tre you need to be prepared to trade Maxey.

[Black Mage]

Sort of the opposite of that.

Trade back to get 4, 5, or 6 this year, plus that team's unprotected pick next year as the core of the trade.

Except no team is going to make that swap at 4, 5 or 6. You'd have to start getting into the 8, 9, 10 range and now you're talking teams that might not be in the lottery next year.

The No Dunks guy went over a PhillyVoice article that reviewed trade down trades that have occurred since 2000. In every case, except for the OJ Mayo/Kevin Love deal the team trading down got the worse of the two players and "lost" the trade. The moral of the story, trading down is a losing bet.

Tatum/Fultz trade? I’d say the Celtics won.

Oddly, I forgot about that deal and I don't recall them discussing it, then again I was trying to listen with 2 noisy kids in the backseats. That would be another example, but by and large the trading down team lost the deal. I'd erase the Tatum deal b/c Ainge knew exactly who both teams were taking. I don't know if Ainge makes that deal if Morey had been our GM; think he would have been concerned Morey's functional brain would notice Fultz not shooting well. Unlike BC who was too busy victory lapping and tweeting on his burners.

[Snotbubbles]

Sort of the opposite of that.

Trade back to get 4, 5, or 6 this year, plus that team's unprotected pick next year as the core of the trade.

Except no team is going to make that swap at 4, 5 or 6. You'd have to start getting into the 8, 9, 10 range and now you're talking teams that might not be in the lottery next year.

The No Dunks guy went over a PhillyVoice article that reviewed trade down trades that have occurred since 2000. In every case, except for the OJ Mayo/Kevin Love deal the team trading down got the worse of the two players and "lost" the trade. The moral of the story, trading down is a losing bet.

Tatum/Fultz trade? I’d say the Celtics won.

https://i0.wp.com/saltcityhoops.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/DTSmoveup-lotto.png?ssl=1

2000 - Cleveland traded up from #8 to take Chris Mihm at #7. Jamal Crawford was taken #8.
2001 - Houston traded up from #13 to take Eddie Griffin at #7. Richard Jefferson was taken #13.

[Arsenal]

Why the arbitrary cutoff in 2000? Before that you have the below, with the "winner" listed first:

1998 - Nowitzki (9th) for Traylor (6th)
1998 - Carter (5th) for Jamison (4th)
1993 - Hardaway (3rd) for Webber (1st)
1987 - Pippen (5th) for Polynice (8th)
1980 - McHale (3rd) for Carroll (1st)

4 out of 5 times the team trading down "won" the trade, the only exception being the Pippen trade.

Bottom line is there's way too small sample size even going back this far for it to be statistically significant. Just make the best deal you can.

[Stanford]

On top of all these examples that did happen, we don't have a list of trades that were offered but not accepted by the team trading down, which seems pretty relevant.

Also relevant is the offer. Should we trade down to 5 for a future second? Obviously not. Should we trade down to 5 for the Jazz's unprotected pick in 2026? I don't need to answer that.

[MVP1992]

Why the arbitrary cutoff in 2000? Before that you have the below, with the "winner" listed first:

1998 - Nowitzki (9th) for Traylor (6th)
1998 - Carter (5th) for Jamison (4th)
1993 - Hardaway (3rd) for Webber (1st)
1987 - Pippen (5th) for Polynice (8th)
1980 - McHale (3rd) for Carroll (1st)

4 out of 5 times the team trading down "won" the trade, the only exception being the Pippen trade.

Bottom line is there's way too small sample size even going back this far for it to be statistically significant. Just make the best deal you can.

Did those teams trading down get a future pick or another player in the trade?

If another pick, I wonder if they hit on the pick also.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Well we did trade Keith Van Horn (#2 pick) to the Nets for Tim Thomas (#7 pick). Safe to say we lost that trade, although KVH did eventually end up playing for us a few years later.

[sodmoraes]

I watched some Harper highlights today, just in case San Antonio gets cute and doesnt pick him and he drops to us. Hes pretty elite going to the rim( altough doesnt seem to have an elite first step).

His 3 ball is kinda flat, but i think it will get better at the pros. But what i find a bit worrying: isnt his ft kinda bad for a guard at 75%? People here are down on Ace because he shot at 69%, and Bailey only shot 3.5 fts per game, while Harper shot 5.8, so it seems Bailey may have some variance there. This had me thinking of Fultz.

Another thing that had me worried is he only had 4 assists per game, which is kinda low for a leading guard. I know his team sucked, so his APG numbers were affected, but will he be a true PG at the pros or more of a combo guard? In comparison, fultz had 6 apg and played for a crap team too.

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[Stanford]

Well we did trade Keith Van Horn (#2 pick) to the Nets for Tim Thomas (#7 pick). Safe to say we lost that trade, although KVH did eventually end up playing for us a few years later.

Yeah. So ultimately it matters how well Morey evaluates players. I'd be willing to bet that in nearly all of these cases where a team traded down, a player was available after the pick that would have changed the balance of the trade. If McGrady had been selected instead of Tim Thomas, that's an obvious win.

You can construct hypothetical trades in every draft where trading down would have been beneficial. It really just comes down to intel and player evaluation. Can you identify the best player and can you accurately predict if that player will be available at the spot you're trading down to. All this other stuff is pretty useless.

[Kobblehead]

I like how Harper changes speeds and utilizes angles in his drives. Shades of Andre Miller and Jalen Brunson, in that regard.

[Arsenal]

We also won the Dario Saric (#12) for Elfrid Payton (#10) trade down in 2014.