How is this not a super Mid plan? what's the pitch on our direction

[Troubadour]

What frustrates me the most about this direction is that it all stems from the decision that Scottie Barnes was the future of this franchise no matter the cost. Scottie was sad in 2022/2023, so Masai labels Siakam selfish, runs him out of town, and gives permission for the team to lose for two straight seasons.

The expectation in that losing was to see Scottie Barnes distinguish himself as one of the elite players in the league. Instead he's regressed as a shooter, plateaued as a scorer, and looks more disengaged offball in halfcourt settings than ever before. Back when that lead player was Pascal Siakam, they refused to actually build around him, and, now that it's Scottie Barnes, they've abandoned the rebuild to optimize the team around their chosen star.

No excuses for Scottie Barnes to not be an All-Star next season, right?

[Duffman100]

What frustrates me the most about this direction is that it all stems from the decision that Scottie Barnes was the future of this franchise no matter the cost. Scottie was sad in 2022/2023, so Masai labels Siakam selfish, runs him out of town, and gives permission for the team to lose for two straight seasons.

The expectation in that losing was to see Scottie Barnes distinguish himself as one of the elite players in the league. Instead he's regressed as a shooter, plateaued as a scorer, and looks more disengaged offball in halfcourt settings than ever before. Back when that lead player was Pascal Siakam, they refused to actually build around him, and, now that it's Scottie Barnes, they've abandoned the rebuild to optimize the team around their chosen star.

No excuses for Scottie Barnes to not be an All-Star next season, right?

Yeah at this point he needs a monster season. He doesn't have to be our lead scorer, but he does need to be dominant

[GLF]

Tankers really confuse me lol. Now we are only for sure better than Washington to them, and if true (which it’s not), shouldn’t they be happy? If Washington is the only team in the East we are better than that means we should get another top pick which is what tankers love so much lol

[nikster]

The data is pretty conclusive that the #1 pick has the highest probability to become an all-star. It’s not really that much of a crap shoot.

Just because it is the highest probability doesn't mean that it comes through with a great chance. It's been pretty rough lately, and the draft is a lot less of a sure thing in the one-and-done age, was my point.

Meantime, it's worth remembering what we're talking about here. We're not talking about Jamaal Magloire, we're talking about franchise players.

There are two factors at play.

The lottery
The chance of landing a franchise guy

Both of those obviously reduce the % of having draft success.

Obviously it's a route to go. But when people are talking about "miracles" that lead for team to be contenders, im guess that % of that route is just as equally a miracle.

Yeah and "made an all star team" doesn't not Menace franchise player. Scottie and Ingram have both made all star teams.

Don't think anybody wants to build around Wiggins, KAT, Zion or Simmons

[tsherkin]

The data is pretty conclusive that the number one pick has the highest chance of becoming an allstar and the higher you are in the draft, the more likely the player you selected is better than the ones selected lower in the draft.

Haven't contested this. It isn't salient to my point, though.

The only real franchise-level player we've seen drafted in the past 21 years is Dwight... and PROBABLY Wemby. Borderline on AD. No one else. That's a pretty LOW hit rate. There have been a whole bunch of GOOD players, but not a lot of the sort of talent which you can actually build around towards a title. There's a big difference between the two.

What frustrates me the most about this direction is that it all stems from the decision that Scottie Barnes was the future of this franchise no matter the cost. Scottie was sad in 2022/2023, so Masai labels Siakam selfish, runs him out of town, and gives permission for the team to lose for two straight seasons.

The expectation in that losing was to see Scottie Barnes distinguish himself as one of the elite players in the league. Instead he's regressed as a shooter, plateaued as a scorer, and looks more disengaged offball in halfcourt settings than ever before. Back when that lead player was Pascal Siakam, they refused to actually build around him, and, now that it's Scottie Barnes, they've abandoned the rebuild to optimize the team around their chosen star.

No excuses for Scottie Barnes to not be an All-Star next season, right?

Yeah at this point he needs a monster season. He doesn't have to be our lead scorer, but he does need to be dominant

He'll be a good defender. Waiting for anything else is probably a large waste of time.

I do think we are in a place where we have somewhat of a logjam as far as prospects go. We have a plethora of shooting guards and no big man depth. I would not be opposed to some sort of clean up trade to better balance the roster or acquire us surplus draft assets. If we could round out a roster of 8/9 rotation worthy players + excess draft capital that could put us in a solid spot as far as win-now and being ready to strike in a trade. At some point we’ll see diminishing returns on our young guards if we can’t carve out enough playing time for all of them (which they all deserve in some sense).

Yep. We have a glut of forwards, for sure, and shooting guards as well. I'm with most of what you said there, for sure. I think we have a little more "big man" depth than you're describing, but lack specifically in center depth.

If we were slightly better prepared to pivot in one specific direction I would have more confidence in the team. Right now there is no clear path as far as I can see. None of our current guys have incredibly high ceilings. We aren’t going to be drafting high and we don’t necessarily have the assets for a big move (at least relative to some other teams). Create a path to even just one of those things and I’ll believe in the team’s future a lot more.

I think the problem you're having is that you're evaluating the team as-is, and that isn't the team's future. We have trade options, Masai's been very good about extracting value from lower draft picks and we have BI incoming. We should be able to arrange some opportunities. We didn't look like we were going huge places with the team until we traded for Kyle and Demar started to improve either, you know? For a minute, DeRozan was just some 6'7 athlete who had no skills, remember? And then later, we grabbed OG and Pascal.

So I think there's more to be optimistic about in terms of what Masai is capable of doing, even if the specific talent present now on the roster doesn't turn a lot of heads.

[douggood]

League impressions are that Raptors are big game hunting Per Windhorst. 22 min mark

https://youtu.be/O0pe4YsI8qY?si=jsl35AqfBQfUa-N4&t=1320

[ATLTimekeeper]

League impressions are that Raptors are big game hunting Per Windhorst. 22 min mark

https://youtu.be/O0pe4YsI8qY?si=jsl35AqfBQfUa-N4&t=1320

I know people say Giannis, but his NTC kills any chance of us competing. It's probably something closer to Devin Booker, who is a big supporter of Darko and the Suns will be aiming to recoup draft capital after Durant goes.

I could see them throw a wall of RJ/Gradey/Walter/#9/ and future firsts and swaps.

[douggood]

League impressions are that Raptors are big game hunting Per Windhorst. 22 min mark

https://youtu.be/O0pe4YsI8qY?si=jsl35AqfBQfUa-N4&t=1320

I know people say Giannis, but his NTC kills any chance of us competing. It's probably something closer to Devin Booker, who is a big supporter of Darko and the Suns will be aiming to recoup draft capital after Durant goes.

I could see them throw a wall of RJ/Gradey/Walter/#9/ and future firsts and swaps.

giannis doesn't have a NTC, he has 2 year guaranteed left
there is a thought that MIL will work with Giannis for him to go where he wants, but that doesnt mean he has a NTC, mil might just trade him where ever for best return

and phx is not trading booker by reports, he is even involved in interviewing new coaches.

[Merit]

What frustrates me the most about this direction is that it all stems from the decision that Scottie Barnes was the future of this franchise no matter the cost. Scottie was sad in 2022/2023, so Masai labels Siakam selfish, runs him out of town, and gives permission for the team to lose for two straight seasons.

The expectation in that losing was to see Scottie Barnes distinguish himself as one of the elite players in the league. Instead he's regressed as a shooter, plateaued as a scorer, and looks more disengaged offball in halfcourt settings than ever before. Back when that lead player was Pascal Siakam, they refused to actually build around him, and, now that it's Scottie Barnes, they've abandoned the rebuild to optimize the team around their chosen star.

No excuses for Scottie Barnes to not be an All-Star next season, right?

Masai didn’t label Pascal selfish, at least that I remember. Can you provide a link? I thought he was talking about Fred - which makes good sense.

[Duffman100]

League impressions are that Raptors are big game hunting Per Windhorst. 22 min mark

https://youtu.be/O0pe4YsI8qY?si=jsl35AqfBQfUa-N4&t=1320

I know people say Giannis, but his NTC kills any chance of us competing. It's probably something closer to Devin Booker, who is a big supporter of Darko and the Suns will be aiming to recoup draft capital after Durant goes.

I could see them throw a wall of RJ/Gradey/Walter/#9/ and future firsts and swaps.

Quickly / Booker / Ingram / Scottie / poeltl is very interesting

[navyblue]

League impressions are that Raptors are big game hunting Per Windhorst. 22 min mark

https://youtu.be/O0pe4YsI8qY?si=jsl35AqfBQfUa-N4&t=1320

I know people say Giannis, but his NTC kills any chance of us competing. It's probably something closer to Devin Booker, who is a big supporter of Darko and the Suns will be aiming to recoup draft capital after Durant goes.

I could see them throw a wall of RJ/Gradey/Walter/#9/ and future firsts and swaps.

Quickly / Booker / Ingram / Scottie / poeltl is very interesting

Expensive AF.

[Clutch0z24]

Read on Twitter

Only thing that can save us is if this becomes reality...We been trying to make trades without much assets maybe we have the assets now...

[Duffman100]

I know people say Giannis, but his NTC kills any chance of us competing. It's probably something closer to Devin Booker, who is a big supporter of Darko and the Suns will be aiming to recoup draft capital after Durant goes.

I could see them throw a wall of RJ/Gradey/Walter/#9/ and future firsts and swaps.

Quickly / Booker / Ingram / Scottie / poeltl is very interesting

Expensive AF.

Not my money.

[Troubadour]

What frustrates me the most about this direction is that it all stems from the decision that Scottie Barnes was the future of this franchise no matter the cost. Scottie was sad in 2022/2023, so Masai labels Siakam selfish, runs him out of town, and gives permission for the team to lose for two straight seasons.

The expectation in that losing was to see Scottie Barnes distinguish himself as one of the elite players in the league. Instead he's regressed as a shooter, plateaued as a scorer, and looks more disengaged offball in halfcourt settings than ever before. Back when that lead player was Pascal Siakam, they refused to actually build around him, and, now that it's Scottie Barnes, they've abandoned the rebuild to optimize the team around their chosen star.

No excuses for Scottie Barnes to not be an All-Star next season, right?

Masai didn’t label Pascal selfish, at least that I remember. Can you provide a link? I thought he was talking about Fred - which makes good sense.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38550884/masai-ujiri-wants-raptors-play-right-way-talking-contract-pascal-siakam

Masai made the narrative going into the 23/24 season that Pascal was selfish and Darko spent the first two months of the season parking him in the corner. It wasn't until first option Scottie Barnes clearly not viable in the NBA that they went back to Pascal and he averaged 25/5/5 on 64% TS in December.

Ironically, Scottie Barnes also averaged 24/10/6 on 62% TS in December 2023, which was the single best month of his career. Two weeks into January, Pascal Siakam was gone and Scottie Barnes hasn't had a true shooting above 54.8% for a full month since.

This is the product of a cheap ownership group who made sure fans panicked about paying all of Pascal, OG and Fred and wound up paying ZERO OF THEM. This is the product of a management team that demonized one player to build a permission structure to get rid of him to save money, appease a "star" player, and enter a rebuild they would end 13 months later. This is the product of a coaching staff that has no autonomy and exists to serve the interests of management and the aforementioned "star".

[Scase]

The Raptors sat Scottie, IQ, RJ, Yak, and BI for a combined 135 games this season (Scottie was the only player who played 65 games from that group), and still finished 11 games ahead of Charlotte.

The Raptors are a treadmill team, but the Raptors are also a much better team than Charlotte. It doesn't take a genius to see that.

Funny, I recall people saying we were better than DET last off season. Unless we're going to use injuries for a second year in a row of excuses? We've done nothing to elevate us above any team not named WAS, and until we do, it's a reasonable assessment.

FWIW, I think we will finish above CHA, but to suggest it's a guarantee would be foolish.

If both teams are relatively healthy, there is a 0% chance the Raptors don't finish the season with at least 15 more wins. If the Raptors are as bad as you claim, we'd be competing for another lottery pick next year (which is what Charlotte will be doing). It's probably what we should be doing. But you know as well as I do that we won't be doing that.

A massive part of our team has exceptionally bad health, and hell, so does their team, so to drum up some magical hypothetical is pointless. All I'm saying is nothing is guaranteed. It's wild that this is such a hot take to some people.

People saying "we were trying to lose and still had more wins", cool if we completely ignore CHA had just as bad, if not worse injury luck with their top 2 players missing 1/2 to 3/4 of the season, and they definitely were trying to lose more than us.

Like I said, everyone was guaranteeing we'd be better than the pistons, and look where we ended up, **** happens and trying to make any sort of guarantee is just ignoring history.

[tsherkin]

A massive part of our team has exceptionally bad health, and hell, so does their team, so to drum up some magical hypothetical is pointless. All I'm saying is nothing is guaranteed. It's wild that this is such a hot take to some people.

So the guys we're specifically worried about are primarily going to be Quickley, Poeltl and Ingram. And RJ.

Ingram is probably going to play around 60 games, based on the past half-decade. We can generally assume that'll be the case, unless we're especially unlucky.

Barrett's hit or miss; he's played under 60 games 3 times (including the past 2 seasons), but played 70+ for three straight years prior to the trade season. But we can generally assume 65+ with him.

Poeltl's played under 60 for 2 years in a row, but was reasonably healthy from 18-23. So it isn't out of sorts to expect maybe 68 games or so.

Quickley played 33 games this year, the first time in his career he played less than 64 games. We can probably expect 70+ from him next year, unless we're unlucky.

In other words, there's a pretty good chance we'll have notably MORE heath next season than we enjoyed this year... and should remind ourselves that some of those missed games came from shutting it down in the latter third of the season, as opposed to absent health.

People saying "we were trying to lose and still had more wins", cool if we completely ignore CHA had just as bad, if not worse injury luck with their top 2 players missing 1/2 to 3/4 of the season, and they definitely were trying to lose more than us.

.. and they won 11 fewer games than we did. They were notably worse, and far more successful at tanking. What's the point here? I don't see the reasoning for a comparison to Charlotte.

The Hornets are much more frail than we are on average, and have less talent. They aren't likely to be competing with us to any meaningful extent next season.

[Merit]

What frustrates me the most about this direction is that it all stems from the decision that Scottie Barnes was the future of this franchise no matter the cost. Scottie was sad in 2022/2023, so Masai labels Siakam selfish, runs him out of town, and gives permission for the team to lose for two straight seasons.

The expectation in that losing was to see Scottie Barnes distinguish himself as one of the elite players in the league. Instead he's regressed as a shooter, plateaued as a scorer, and looks more disengaged offball in halfcourt settings than ever before. Back when that lead player was Pascal Siakam, they refused to actually build around him, and, now that it's Scottie Barnes, they've abandoned the rebuild to optimize the team around their chosen star.

No excuses for Scottie Barnes to not be an All-Star next season, right?

Masai didn’t label Pascal selfish, at least that I remember. Can you provide a link? I thought he was talking about Fred - which makes good sense.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38550884/masai-ujiri-wants-raptors-play-right-way-talking-contract-pascal-siakam

Masai made the narrative going into the 23/24 season that Pascal was selfish and Darko spent the first two months of the season parking him in the corner. It wasn't until first option Scottie Barnes clearly not viable in the NBA that they went back to Pascal and he averaged 25/5/5 on 64% TS in December.

Ironically, Scottie Barnes also averaged 24/10/6 on 62% TS in December 2023, which was the single best month of his career. Two weeks into January, Pascal Siakam was gone and Scottie Barnes hasn't had a true shooting above 54.8% for a full month since.

This is the product of a cheap ownership group who made sure fans panicked about paying all of Pascal, OG and Fred and wound up paying ZERO OF THEM. This is the product of a management team that demonized one player to build a permission structure to get rid of him to save money, appease a "star" player, and enter a rebuild they would end 13 months later. This is the product of a coaching staff that has no autonomy and exists to serve the interests of management and the aforementioned "star".

That article still reads like Masai’s talking about Fred. I don’t quite understand the narrative since Fred was an integral part of that core (shooting off the dribble, chemistry with everyone including Jak). Fred left, so Masai couldn’t have paid him, despite offering him a fair market value contract. The optics agree with this as well. Eg. Pascal mistakenly thanking Toronto fans in Indy, Fred being Fred in Houston.

I am not sure why you’re calling management cheap when they just paid IQ and Ingram. Both are better shooters than Pascal and both can create their own offense unlike Fred.

I disagree with your narrative.

[Troubadour]

Masai didn’t label Pascal selfish, at least that I remember. Can you provide a link? I thought he was talking about Fred - which makes good sense.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38550884/masai-ujiri-wants-raptors-play-right-way-talking-contract-pascal-siakam

Masai made the narrative going into the 23/24 season that Pascal was selfish and Darko spent the first two months of the season parking him in the corner. It wasn't until first option Scottie Barnes clearly not viable in the NBA that they went back to Pascal and he averaged 25/5/5 on 64% TS in December.

Ironically, Scottie Barnes also averaged 24/10/6 on 62% TS in December 2023, which was the single best month of his career. Two weeks into January, Pascal Siakam was gone and Scottie Barnes hasn't had a true shooting above 54.8% for a full month since.

This is the product of a cheap ownership group who made sure fans panicked about paying all of Pascal, OG and Fred and wound up paying ZERO OF THEM. This is the product of a management team that demonized one player to build a permission structure to get rid of him to save money, appease a "star" player, and enter a rebuild they would end 13 months later. This is the product of a coaching staff that has no autonomy and exists to serve the interests of management and the aforementioned "star".

That article still reads like Masai’s talking about Fred. I don’t quite understand the narrative since Fred was an integral part of that core (shooting off the dribble, chemistry with everyone including Jak). Fred left, so Masai couldn’t have paid him, despite offering him a fair market value contract. The optics agree with this as well. Eg. Pascal mistakenly thanking Toronto fans in Indy, Fred being Fred in Houston.

I am not sure why you’re calling management cheap when they just paid IQ and Ingram. Both are better shooters than Pascal and both can create their own offense unlike Fred.

I disagree with your narrative.

Masai gave that quote in response to a question about Pascal Siakam. You can go back and check the press conference video.

IQ cannot create his own offence. He's a spot up guy mostly. Ingram is not a better shooter than Siakam. And IQ shot worse from three than Siakam did this season too with only two more attempts per game.

Siakam:
0-3 Feet - 77%
3-10 Feet - 54%
10-16 Feet - 44%
16-3P Range - 35%
3PT Range - 39%

Ingram:
0-3 Feet - 74%
3-10 Feet - 41%
10-16 Feet - 54%
16-3P Range - 40%
3PT Range - 37%

[tsherkin]

Ingram is not a better shooter than Siakam.

Pardon?

Ingram's last 5 seasons in aggregate have him an 84.7% FT shooter taking 4.9 3PA/g at 37.2% on merely 82.5% assisted. Shooting 44.1% from 16-23 feet, 48.9% from 10-16 and 42.7% from 3-10.

Over that same stretch, Siakam's posted 76.6% FT, 34.6% 3P on 4.1 3PA/g (with a single season of 36%+, though one at 35.9%), 37.0% from 16-23 feet, 43.8% from 10-16 feet and 47.8% from 3-10.

Ingram is very CLEARLY a superior shooter. Pascal's better in transition and better on the block.

And IQ shot worse from three than Siakam did this season too with only two more attempts per game.

Siakam:
0-3 Feet - 77%
3-10 Feet - 54%
10-16 Feet - 44%
16-3P Range - 35%
3PT Range - 39%

Ingram:
0-3 Feet - 74%
3-10 Feet - 41%
10-16 Feet - 54%
16-3P Range - 40%
3PT Range - 37%

You mean in his 33-game season?

[Merit]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38550884/masai-ujiri-wants-raptors-play-right-way-talking-contract-pascal-siakam

Masai made the narrative going into the 23/24 season that Pascal was selfish and Darko spent the first two months of the season parking him in the corner. It wasn't until first option Scottie Barnes clearly not viable in the NBA that they went back to Pascal and he averaged 25/5/5 on 64% TS in December.

Ironically, Scottie Barnes also averaged 24/10/6 on 62% TS in December 2023, which was the single best month of his career. Two weeks into January, Pascal Siakam was gone and Scottie Barnes hasn't had a true shooting above 54.8% for a full month since.

This is the product of a cheap ownership group who made sure fans panicked about paying all of Pascal, OG and Fred and wound up paying ZERO OF THEM. This is the product of a management team that demonized one player to build a permission structure to get rid of him to save money, appease a "star" player, and enter a rebuild they would end 13 months later. This is the product of a coaching staff that has no autonomy and exists to serve the interests of management and the aforementioned "star".

That article still reads like Masai’s talking about Fred. I don’t quite understand the narrative since Fred was an integral part of that core (shooting off the dribble, chemistry with everyone including Jak). Fred left, so Masai couldn’t have paid him, despite offering him a fair market value contract. The optics agree with this as well. Eg. Pascal mistakenly thanking Toronto fans in Indy, Fred being Fred in Houston.

I am not sure why you’re calling management cheap when they just paid IQ and Ingram. Both are better shooters than Pascal and both can create their own offense unlike Fred.

I disagree with your narrative.

Masai gave that quote in response to a question about Pascal Siakam. You can go back and check the press conference video.

IQ cannot create his own offence. He's a spot up guy mostly. Ingram is not a better shooter than Siakam. And IQ shot worse from three than Siakam did this season too with only two more attempts per game.

Siakam:
0-3 Feet - 77%
3-10 Feet - 54%
10-16 Feet - 44%
16-3P Range - 35%
3PT Range - 39%

Ingram:
0-3 Feet - 74%
3-10 Feet - 41%
10-16 Feet - 54%
16-3P Range - 40%
3PT Range - 37%

Iq was injured for the majority of the season and can create more than Fred, which is the comparison I’m making. Pascal has improved his shooting, I’ll give him that - and I really like pascal as a player. I’ll consistently give him his flowers. BI has been injured all year, so not sure why you’re comparing them this year, when historically Ingram has been miles better than pascal as a shooter and especially at self creation. I’m also not sure why you’re comparing injury riddled seasons. Compare their usual/historical performance.

It doesn’t matter that Masai gave that response to a question about Pascal. The comment is about Fred.