iggymcfrack wrote:Really starting to go back and forth on Giannis and Haliburton for 3rd place for POY. The thing is if you look at the numbers, Giannis had a higher average game score in the playoffs than Hali's best game until tonight, but it feels like Hali is massively more impactful and he certainly looked like he was providing more lift in the head-to-head series where the Pacers won 4-1. I feel like the right move is to leave Giannis #3 for now. If Hali's really that good, he should be able to show the same kind of value against the elite defense of the Thunder that he's currently showing against the Knicks. If he can do that, I think he deserves the #3 spot.
So, I do tend to not make firm lists while the playoffs are still on going, and particularly mid-series, but I will say:
Leaving aside the top 3 guys (SGA, Jokic, Giannis), I think it should probably be expected that at least one of the other two spots goes to another guy who carried his team deep into the post-season, even if one of those guys (ahem, Hali) wasn't even an all-star this year. Not a rule or anything, but the culture is just so focused on the post-season and chip that playing well at the right time makes a huge difference.
I will say that if OKC holds serve to the chip, I think it's unlikely I'll strongly consider the other guys over that top 3.
Where things will get super-interesting is if that doesn't happen. In theory it could happen with the teams down 1-3 right now, but obviously the team I'm thinking about at this time is Indy, and while I think Pascal deserves many flowers for his performance this year, the breakout star of the post-season I think has clearly been Hali.
So then, what happens if Indy wins the chip with Hali looking like the best player on the floor by a good margin in both the Conference Finals & NBA Finals? I'll say definitively that it is possible I'll put him at the #1 spot, because the playoffs just mean that much.
However, I think there's a case to be made that Giannis looked like the best player in the 1st round series and Mitchell looked like the best player in the CSF, and both those guys had better regular seasons than Hali, which makes me at least reluctant to elevate him above those guys for POY.
At the same time: There's a really good chance I'm going to be more impressed with Hali than Mitchell leading an elite offense through the playoffs, and I'm not exactly keen to give Mitchell the nod based on defense.
Circling back to the Giannis conversation: I do continue to have mixed feeling about Giannis as a POY candidate in the Bucks post-Jrue era. To me, the acquisition of Dame SHOULD have led to elite team offense and the fact it didn't is a knock on both guys. I'm really not in love with Giannis putting up huge individual numbers on a team where I think him playing that way on a disappointing team when it sure seems like he should have been adapting his game more to work around Dame.
Of course, given Dame's injury and all, I'm not knocking Giannis for failing to beat Indy in the first round, and I also think we shouldn't forget that Giannis led the Bucks to the Cup. Further, it's not like the team didn't do a lot better on offense whenever Giannis was on the floor this year...but at the same time, Giannis' case for being the best player in the world was always based on him being at least close to a DPOY level force at the other end of the court, and the reality is that this has become more and more spotty in the 2020s.
Okay, before I leave the POY conversation:
- Tatum was #4 on my list after the regular season, but I think he's going to fall to the HM. Injuries can do that, and so can late game collapses leading to a bad upset. I really didn't think the Knicks had a chance against the Celtics and frankly, I still think they shouldn't have. Props to the Knicks, but I can't see the Celtics thinking "We just got surpassed by a better team". They blew it this time.
- For the Knicks, my go-to candidate is Brunson, though I think there's a conversation to be had about whether KAT's actually been the more valuable player over the season. I'm never enthusiastic about arguing for KAT as I still question whether you can really win a chip with him as one of your stars due primarily to his poor judgment. I don't know if I can think of another star who is as likely to foul in a way that makes me bang my head against the wall. This is a significant part of why he's not good on defense, but it's part of a larger problem that isn't just defense.
Back on Brunson, I don't think he'll be in my Top 5 unless something drastic changes in the current series.
- Over to the other remaining team, the Timberwolves. We have something kind of similar with Ant & Gobert here. I think Gobert's lower playoff minutes will keep him from getting serious consideration and understandably so, but I also think we should keep in mind that this isn't literally "Gobert getting played off the floor". Often it feels more like a hockey game where the desperate teams pull their goalie because it ups their chances of catching up...even as it makes the situations worse more often than not.
If both Minny & NY go gently into that good night it won't be great for the candidacies of any of their players, but I feel like Ant will be a stronger candidate than Brunson.
