Buy Low Candidate?

[DuckIII]

I get it this year. Nobody below 4 seems much more than a role player, but it feels like you can get the same quality guy at 26 as you can at 12.

That’s basically never true and isn’t true this year either. It’s of course possible to get a better or equal guy at 19 or 26 that you can get at 12 but it’s extremely unlikely due to the fact that you have to pick the right guy.

I think it’s an absolutely terrible idea in general, and especially in our situation where we have zero franchise players. We have to maximize the potential of our draft swings every time and that means, using statistical likelihoods, drafting as high as possible.

I consider it to be such a bad idea that the only reason I believe it’s even possible is because Mr. “You can win titles with 9 good players” is our GM.

OK. So who would you draft at #12 that you guarantee will be better than Rasheer Fleming who we can probably get with the 19th pick? And Fleming fills a position of great need, a "4" with a freakish wingspan that can defend 4 positions and kill you with corner "3s" ?

No such thing as guarantees. This is the draft. It’s all about ceilings, existing pool of options, and likelihoods.

Can’t guarantee that Fleming won’t suck either. Or just be some dude. Or even be there at all when the 19th pick happens.

[Almost Retired]

Player 1:
6' 2" barefoot; 200 lbs; 6' 4" wingspan; 8' 1.5" reach; 8.25 hand measurement
FG% 44.8; 3pt% 38.6; FT% 87.5; 18.3 points per game; 1.2 steals per game; 4.2 assists per game

Player 2:
6' 1" barefoot; 198 lbs; 6'4" wingspan; 8'0" standing reach; 8.5 hand measurement
FG% 52; 3pt% 40.8; FT% 80; 18.9 points per game; 4.6 assists per game

Player #1 is Walter Clayton Jr this past season. A guy we could get with pick #26 in a trade down with Brooklyn (#12 & #45 for their #19 and #26). Player #2 was Jalen Brunson in his junior year at Vandy. Getting Rasheer Fleming and #19 and Clayton at #26 is a much better haul than any single player we could draft at #12.

[DuckIII]

Player 1:
6' 2" barefoot; 200 lbs; 6' 4" wingspan; 8' 1.5" reach; 8.25 hand measurement
FG% 44.8; 3pt% 38.6; FT% 87.5; 18.3 points per game; 1.2 steals per game; 4.2 assists per game

Player 2:
6' 1" barefoot; 198 lbs; 6'4" wingspan; 8'0" standing reach; 8.5 hand measurement
FG% 52; 3pt% 40.8; FT% 80; 18.9 points per game; 4.6 assists per game

Player #1 is Walter Clayton Jr this past season. A guy we could get with pick #26 in a trade down with Brooklyn (#12 & #45 for their #19 and #26). Player #2 was Jalen Brunson in his junior year at Vandy. Getting Rasheer Fleming and #19 and Clayton at #26 is a much better haul than any single player we could draft at #12.

Yeah but Jalen Williams and Tyrese Haliburton were both recent #12 picks which means we are guaranteed a superstar NBA-Finalist if we stay put.

[Almost Retired]

That’s basically never true and isn’t true this year either. It’s of course possible to get a better or equal guy at 19 or 26 that you can get at 12 but it’s extremely unlikely due to the fact that you have to pick the right guy.

I think it’s an absolutely terrible idea in general, and especially in our situation where we have zero franchise players. We have to maximize the potential of our draft swings every time and that means, using statistical likelihoods, drafting as high as possible.

I consider it to be such a bad idea that the only reason I believe it’s even possible is because Mr. “You can win titles with 9 good players” is our GM.

OK. So who would you draft at #12 that you guarantee will be better than Rasheer Fleming who we can probably get with the 19th pick? And Fleming fills a position of great need, a "4" with a freakish wingspan that can defend 4 positions and kill you with corner "3s" ?

No such thing as guarantees. This is the draft. It’s all about ceilings, existing pool of options, and likelihoods.

Can’t guarantee that Fleming won’t suck either. Or just be some dude. Or even be there at all when the 19th pick happens.

Absolutely right. There is just as much probability IN THIS DRAFT that we can get a decent starting PF at #19 as at #12. But adding another good player at #26 makes the trade down even more appealing. This is a 4 or 5 star draft. And who knows, fit or injury could derail one of those players too. I like Fleming for his freakish wingspan and switchability on defense combined with his decent 3 pt range. He could be an effective "4" for us. Add in a Center or a guy like Walter Clayton at #26 and you have a potentially great draft.

[Almost Retired]

Player 1:
6' 2" barefoot; 200 lbs; 6' 4" wingspan; 8' 1.5" reach; 8.25 hand measurement
FG% 44.8; 3pt% 38.6; FT% 87.5; 18.3 points per game; 1.2 steals per game; 4.2 assists per game

Player 2:
6' 1" barefoot; 198 lbs; 6'4" wingspan; 8'0" standing reach; 8.5 hand measurement
FG% 52; 3pt% 40.8; FT% 80; 18.9 points per game; 4.6 assists per game

Player #1 is Walter Clayton Jr this past season. A guy we could get with pick #26 in a trade down with Brooklyn (#12 & #45 for their #19 and #26). Player #2 was Jalen Brunson in his junior year at Vandy. Getting Rasheer Fleming and #19 and Clayton at #26 is a much better haul than any single player we could draft at #12.

Yeah but Jalen Williams and Tyrese Haliburton were both recent #12 picks which means we are guaranteed a superstar NBA-Finalist if we stay put.

Five minutes ago you said there were no guarantees.

[pipfan]

I still love my deal of Port pick for Dieng/#24
Take Newell at #12
Now we have 2 nice power forward prospects and move Matas to full time 3.
At #24 we hope Beringer drops there, or Wolf/Sorber
White/Ayo/Terry
Giddey/Ball/Huerter
Matas/PWill/Phillips
Dieng/Newell/JSmith
Vuc/Collins/Beringer

That is a very interesting lineup, with lots of expiring deals and young talent. We play out the year, and run like crazy with out depth.
If a superstar becomes available during the season, we have the young guys, big/expiring contracts and future picks to play with, or go into next summer with all our picks and a ton of cap space

[DuckIII]

Player 1:
6' 2" barefoot; 200 lbs; 6' 4" wingspan; 8' 1.5" reach; 8.25 hand measurement
FG% 44.8; 3pt% 38.6; FT% 87.5; 18.3 points per game; 1.2 steals per game; 4.2 assists per game

Player 2:
6' 1" barefoot; 198 lbs; 6'4" wingspan; 8'0" standing reach; 8.5 hand measurement
FG% 52; 3pt% 40.8; FT% 80; 18.9 points per game; 4.6 assists per game

Player #1 is Walter Clayton Jr this past season. A guy we could get with pick #26 in a trade down with Brooklyn (#12 & #45 for their #19 and #26). Player #2 was Jalen Brunson in his junior year at Vandy. Getting Rasheer Fleming and #19 and Clayton at #26 is a much better haul than any single player we could draft at #12.

Yeah but Jalen Williams and Tyrese Haliburton were both recent #12 picks which means we are guaranteed a superstar NBA-Finalist if we stay put.

Five minutes ago you said there were no guarantees.

Dude, that last post was sarcasm. I don’t believe a word of it.

[dougthonus]

Exactly this feels very similar to the Terrence Shannon case that was completely false and a shake down.

What needs to happen is the people that are reporting these claims that prove to be false need to do time. Nothing seems to happen to them whereas the accused proven innocent takes a major hit in public perception and can cost them big money. Zion going to take a pay cut when it’s all said and done. It also has to drain them emotionally and I’m sure that doesn’t help their performance on the court.

Now, if true Zion should absolutely be behind bars but like you said there was nothing even reported as criminal now years later as civil for money.

How many people do you think have really been ruined by allegations that have later turned out to be false? That strikes me as a really small amount of people, likely orders of magnitude smaller than the number of times rich and powerful people get away with breaking the law in absolutely massive ways.

Obviously, no one wants an unfair world on either side of this equation, but I'm not generally not too worried about millionaires getting unfair rulings compared to every day people. It feels like that second group which often has poor representation and can't afford protracted fights is typically the one that's heavily disadvantaged.

[Chi town]

Exactly this feels very similar to the Terrence Shannon case that was completely false and a shake down.

What needs to happen is the people that are reporting these claims that prove to be false need to do time. Nothing seems to happen to them whereas the accused proven innocent takes a major hit in public perception and can cost them big money. Zion going to take a pay cut when it’s all said and done. It also has to drain them emotionally and I’m sure that doesn’t help their performance on the court.

Now, if true Zion should absolutely be behind bars but like you said there was nothing even reported as criminal now years later as civil for money.

How many people do you think have really been ruined by allegations that have later turned out to be false? That strikes me as a really small amount of people, likely orders of magnitude smaller than the number of times rich and powerful people get away with breaking the law in absolutely massive ways.

Obviously, no one wants an unfair world on either side of this equation, but I'm not generally not too worried about millionaires getting unfair rulings compared to every day people. It feels like that second group which often has poor representation and can't afford protracted fights is typically the one that's heavily disadvantaged.

Have two family friends that have suffered from this. Both consensual BF GF relationships. One guy was the younger brother of a close friend in HS. His little brother went to prison for alleged rape. Did his time and then years later after getting out the woman said it was in fact consensual. Meanwhile he is jacked from all the trauma in prison and is barely making it.

Obviously I was not there and did not know what actually happened. Innocent until proven guilty but even then this guy paid the price and was in fact innocent.

Abuse is devastating. False accusations in the internet era are too. Neither of these folks are wealthy and didn’t have the wherewithal to lawyer up.

[dougthonus]

Have two family friends that have suffered from this. Both consensual BF GF relationships. One guy was the younger brother of a close friend in HS. His little brother went to prison for alleged rape. Did his time and then years later after getting out the woman said it was in fact consensual. Meanwhile he is jacked from all the trauma in prison and is barely making it.

Obviously I was not there and did not know what actually happened. Innocent until proven guilty but even then this guy paid the price and was in fact innocent.

Abuse is devastating. False accusations in the internet era are too. Neither of these folks are wealthy and didn’t have the wherewithal to lawyer up.

Certainly I am sorry for your brother and other friend, that is really awful, and I can't imagine how terrible it would be to go to jail unfairly.

Certainly the trauma from being raped and then getting slut-shamed in court and watching your accuser walk is likely similarly traumatic. In the end, when there is an unfair result, it's just terrible. Like anything with judgment you get both false positives and false negatives.

Generally speaking, the widespread belief/research points to fake accusations being extremely rare and the much larger problem historically being lack of accountability by perpetrators. Obviously anyone with personal connections to either side has every right to feel really strongly towards that problem though and without outing anyone, I definitely also have some personal baggage on this topic with family.

[Red Larrivee]

Player 1:
6' 2" barefoot; 200 lbs; 6' 4" wingspan; 8' 1.5" reach; 8.25 hand measurement
FG% 44.8; 3pt% 38.6; FT% 87.5; 18.3 points per game; 1.2 steals per game; 4.2 assists per game

Player 2:
6' 1" barefoot; 198 lbs; 6'4" wingspan; 8'0" standing reach; 8.5 hand measurement
FG% 52; 3pt% 40.8; FT% 80; 18.9 points per game; 4.6 assists per game

Player #1 is Walter Clayton Jr this past season. A guy we could get with pick #26 in a trade down with Brooklyn (#12 & #45 for their #19 and #26). Player #2 was Jalen Brunson in his junior year at Vandy. Getting Rasheer Fleming and #19 and Clayton at #26 is a much better haul than any single player we could draft at #12.

.

I like Clayton, but we really need to stop selling rookies with historical outliers. There is a high chance the 19th and 26th picks will be duds.

[Rose2Boozer]

Ben Simmons.

[WindyCityBorn]

Ben Simmons.

Ben Simmons peaked 4 years ago. Would be an absolute terrible fit with Giddey as well. Unless you’re taking about signing him as bench player for cheap.

[sco]

I'll be interested to see what happens with Kuminga. Saw an article recently, forget where, that quoted sources that BKN won't be pursuing him. Sounds like he might be signable for less than the $30M number that has been floated around. Publicly, at least, GS is saying that their relationship is fine and want him back. I wonder how cheaply he can be had via S&T?

Back on the BKN point for a second, that same article mentioned that BKN was focusing on using it's cap space to garner other assets by acting as a 3rd team presumably in one of the mega deals. This gives me some optimism that they won't be playing in the Giddey sweepstakes...perhaps that was the catalyst in the latest lower Giddey salary expectations leaked.

[drosestruts]

For a different look at it - if you were the fan of another team, would you look at any of the Bulls players as potential "buy low" candidates?

[jnrjr79]

For a different look at it - if you were the fan of another team, would you look at any of the Bulls players as potential "buy low" candidates?

Maybe some team thinks they can develop Patrick Williams, but you'd need to be a team without any imminent cap concerns, nor be trying to win super fast.

Aye seems like a potential buy low candidate after a down year.

[sco]

For a different look at it - if you were the fan of another team, would you look at any of the Bulls players as potential "buy low" candidates?

Maybe some team thinks they can develop Patrick Williams, but you'd need to be a team without any imminent cap concerns, nor be trying to win super fast.

Aye seems like a potential buy low candidate after a down year.

I'd be all over Smith who fell out of the rotation but IMO was our best C.

[HomoSapien]

What about Scoot Henderson? He hasn't been nearly as good as the hype but he's been productive. He's still only 21. Could Portland be tempted by 12 and their first that we own? Would that be a smart play for us? It wasn't that long ago that people thought he had franchise player potential.

Whitmore is another guy from that draft class that just seems like he would bust out if given the minutes.

[Almost Retired]

Player 1:
6' 2" barefoot; 200 lbs; 6' 4" wingspan; 8' 1.5" reach; 8.25 hand measurement
FG% 44.8; 3pt% 38.6; FT% 87.5; 18.3 points per game; 1.2 steals per game; 4.2 assists per game

Player 2:
6' 1" barefoot; 198 lbs; 6'4" wingspan; 8'0" standing reach; 8.5 hand measurement
FG% 52; 3pt% 40.8; FT% 80; 18.9 points per game; 4.6 assists per game

Player #1 is Walter Clayton Jr this past season. A guy we could get with pick #26 in a trade down with Brooklyn (#12 & #45 for their #19 and #26). Player #2 was Jalen Brunson in his junior year at Vandy. Getting Rasheer Fleming and #19 and Clayton at #26 is a much better haul than any single player we could draft at #12.

.

I like Clayton, but we really need to stop selling rookies with historical outliers. There is a high chance the 19th and 26th picks will be duds.

Not a lot of teams thought that highly of Brunson either, which is why he lasted until the 2nd round. While Brunson is more of a true PG, they are similar physically, similar in shooting prowess, and similar in that they were both hugely clutch players for their college teams. I'm not guaranteeing Clayton becomes a star, but I can't dismiss the possibility either. The kid can play, and he's the kind of player that WANTS to take that last second shot. My suggested tandem of Fleming and Clayton beats any single player likely to be available for us at #12 in terms of value. With a few exceptions most of the players after the top 5 could be busts. They all have flaws. A bad fit or an injury could derail them. That's another reason to get 2 bites out of the apple.

[Muzbar]

What about Scoot Henderson? He hasn't been nearly as good as the hype but he's been productive. He's still only 21. Could Portland be tempted by 12 and their first that we own? Would that be a smart play for us? It wasn't that long ago that people thought he had franchise player potential.

Whitmore is another guy from that draft class that just seems like he would bust out if given the minutes.

I don't see Portland giving up on Scoot, he was quietly having a pretty good year for them last year and I expect a breakout year from him next year. Plus he'd be a terrible fit next to Giddey.

Whitmore on the other hand, I'd definitely take a jab at him and think he could be 'bought' kind of low.