2025 NBA FINALS: #1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #4 Indiana Pacers (IND leads 1-0)

[iggymcfrack]

I still think the OKC Thunder could win in 4 games.

Odds does not look pretty for the Pacers indeed. All books have the Thunder winning in five and it's even money at OKC in 6 (or -2.5 in the series wins odds)

i am still trying to convince myself that Vegas could be wrong again (like most of these playoffs);
Pacers were dogs (not by much) against the Bucks
Pacers were dogs against the Cavs (before the injuries)
Pacers were dogs (not by much) against the Knicks

It's a tough decision knowing the these Thunder team is for real. There were a few testy moments in the Nuggets' series but really were never in that much trouble despite it going the full seven.

Unfortuately, we already know who wins this series, question is if this can be extended to six or seven.

I bet Pacers every series in addition to having them to win the East. They definitely weren't dogs against the Bucks. They closed as over 2:1 favorites.

[Wallace_Wallace]

Haliburton will average like 10-15 points against OKC. They are gonna shut him down hard.

Indiana has Hali, Nesmith, Nembhard, Mathurin as Guards / wings.

It's not going to be about shutting down Haliburton. They have a style where anyone goes off. It's going to be much more surprising then you think.

At the perimeter, the Indiana guys don’t seem overmatched. Siakam and Turner don’t have to defend as hard against Chet and IHart. This series should be closer than expected. I think the Pacers will give the Thunder a wake up in the finals right away in game 1.

[tfribs45]

Pacers going to give it their all, not expecting an easy series like most..... OKC in 6 or 7 in a hard-fought series, Pacers have what it takes to keep up with OKC's athleticism and possibly shock the NBA world.

[EastonEddy]

Gunna say Thunder in 6 (maybe 7). Pacers will finally face a team that is young, athletic and who can keep the pace with them up and down the court.

Haliburton cannot take half a game off like he did at times in the ECF because SGA will be attacking nonstop. Unless Siakam and Haliburton both get super hot and play out of their minds I don't see the Pacers taking this. Hoping to see a competitive series.

[MalonesElbows]

Indiana downed the 64 win Cavs in 5 games. They might be an underdog, but it certainly wouldn't be some huge upset if they beat the 68 win Thunder.

[MoneyTalks41890]

Apparently this is the first time in the 22 years luxury tax has been in effect that the two teams meeting in the finals are under the tax.

[slick_watts]

Indiana downed the 64 win Cavs in 5 games. They might be an underdog, but it certainly wouldn't be some huge upset if they beat the 68 win Thunder.

it would be one of the biggest playoff upsets ever.

[flow]

Really will come down to Turner and Siakam taking advantage of the inexperience. OKC is like a bullet train and you have to knock them off step to win. Jokic showed the gameplan.

Turner has been struggling. Seems like he's laboring out there. Maybe these 5 days will help him out.

.

[flow]

Dog quotient

Pacers dogs. Nembhard mcconnell neismith and shephard

OKC dogs. Caruso

Mathurin, too, is a dog. And a pest. He'll be important for Indy in this series.

.

[Woodsanity]

Haliburton will average like 10-15 points against OKC. They are gonna shut him down hard.

Indiana has Hali, Nesmith, Nembhard, Mathurin as Guards / wings.

It's not going to be about shutting down Haliburton. They have a style where anyone goes off. It's going to be much more surprising then you think.

OKC doesn't have any defensive weakspots. Meanwhile we had Kat and Brunson who were defensive liabilities, especially Kat. Indy can win one or two games if they get hot from 3 but I see them struggling to score overall.

[King4Day]

Pulling for Pacers but I have OKC in 5. If I'm wrong, it means we're in store for an absolutely incredible series

[Helsbyte]

I think that OKC defense is going to be too much for Indiana to win a series. OKC has a good/great defensive matchup for all the Pacers critical offensive players and I’m not sure Indiana can handle that level of ball pressure consistently.

They generate a lot of turnovers by denying swing passes when the opposing center has the ball, which forces them to be more of a decision maker than they’re comfortable with. I think Myles Turner is gonna be in hell this series.

Good take with the Myles Turner comment. He will be valuable to take rim protection out, but you want him handling the ball the least possible. He would be the weakest link.

I see Carlisle going small as the series go on, with Siakam at 5.

OKC will struggle with Myles and Siakim. I just don't see OKC having any advantage. I actually see Hartenstein getting played off the floor before Turner. Everyone is conveniently forgetting that the Pacers play 5 out.

[bbms]

Watch on YouTube

simpler times at indiana

[Jailblazers7]

I think that OKC defense is going to be too much for Indiana to win a series. OKC has a good/great defensive matchup for all the Pacers critical offensive players and I’m not sure Indiana can handle that level of ball pressure consistently.

They generate a lot of turnovers by denying swing passes when the opposing center has the ball, which forces them to be more of a decision maker than they’re comfortable with. I think Myles Turner is gonna be in hell this series.

Good take with the Myles Turner comment. He will be valuable to take rim protection out, but you want him handling the ball the least possible. He would be the weakest link.

I see Carlisle going small as the series go on, with Siakam at 5.

OKC will struggle with Myles and Siakim. I just don't see OKC having any advantage. I actually see Hartenstein getting played off the floor before Turner. Everyone is conveniently forgetting that the Pacers play 5 out.

Turner is a perfectly fine stretch 5 but NY was able to play double bigs effectively against Indy - I think Hartenstein will be ok even if his minutes get squeezed a bit.

Siakim is interesting for OKC. I’m guessing Chet and J Dub will both get an opportunity to guard him but I’ll be watching that closely in game 1.

[Raps in 4]

Let's predict the hot takes:

If OKC wins:

- SGA is the new face of the NBA
- Haliburton is the most overrated player in the NBA
- Indy overpaid for Siakam
- Carlisle is the most overrated coach in the NBA

If Indy wins:

- SGA is a fraud and will never be the face of the NBA
- Tyrese is better than Jokic
- The Siakam trade is the greatest trade in NBA history
- OKC should have kept Giddey

[sp6r=underrated]

I just don't see this as a particularly close match-up. Oklahoma City should comfortably win this series unless everything breaks Indiana's way.

That isn't meant as a knock on the Pacers. I'm not a bitter Knicks fan though I am disappointed we aren't here. Indiana has been playing at the level of a Finals team for several months. They are worthy of being here and in a normal year I'd give them a real shot. But Oklahoma City has been playing at the level of the best team in NBA history for months.

The table below shows every team team's record since the Luka trade, post-season included. Adjusted MOV is back-of-the-envelope to adjust for Home/Away splits and opponent's full-season SRS.



The performance gap between Oklahoma City and Indiana by adjusted Margin of Victory is as large as the gap between Indiana and Phoenix. Now adjusted MOV may be over-stating things a bit. I didn't adjust for issues like injuries. But even we accept it is off by 20% in Indiana's favor there is still an enormous gap in Oklahoma City's favor.

Given that I don't think a match-up by match-up analysis is necessary. Oklahoma City should win this series comfortably because even if they underperform they are better.

The series by series data tells a similar story.

Code: Select all

Team    Wins   Losses    PD     Mov
Thunder   12       4      173   10.8
Pacers    12       4       66    4.1

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Opponent   Wins   Losses   PD     Mov     Opp. SRS     Adj. MOV
Thunder   First Round              Grizzlies     4       0     78   19.5       4.79        24.3
Thunder   Conference Semi-Finals   Nuggets       4       3     64    9.1       3.97        13.1
Thunder   Conference Finals        Wolves        4       1     31    6.2       5.15        11.4

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Opponent   Wins   Losses   PD     Mov     Opp. SRS     Adj. MOV
Pacers    First Round              Bucks         4       1     38    7.6       2.12         9.7
Pacers    Conference Semi-Finals   Cavs          4       1     17    3.4       8.81        12.2
Pacers    Conference Finals        Knicks        4       2     11    1.8       3.59         5.4

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Time with Lead    Time Behind    Ratio
Thunder   First Round              126.3               55.4          2.28
Thunder   Conference Semi-Finals   216.5              103.1          2.10
Thunder   Conference Finals        163.4               69.1          2.36
Pacers    First Round              168.5               64            2.63 
Pacers    Conference Semi-Finals   113.7              120           -1.05
Pacers    Conference Finals        157.8              114.9          1.37

The Oklahoma City-Denver series going seven looms large in people's impression of the Thunder but by the data that series wasn't particularly close.

Aside, Time lead/Behind is back of envelope. Exporting from b-r was a pain.

[Special_Puppy]

I just don't see this as a particularly close match-up. Oklahoma City should comfortably win this series unless everything breaks Indiana's way.

That isn't meant as a knock on the Pacers. I'm not a bitter Knicks fan though I am disappointed we aren't here. Indiana has been playing at the level of a Finals team for several months. They are worthy of being here and in a normal year I'd give them a real shot. But Oklahoma City has been playing at the level of the best team in NBA history for months.

The table below shows every team team's record since the Luka trade, post-season included. Adjusted MOV is back-of-the-envelope to adjust for Home/Away splits and opponent's full-season SRS.



The performance gap between Oklahoma City and Indiana by adjusted Margin of Victory is as large as the gap between Indiana and Phoenix. Now adjusted MOV may be over-stating things a bit. I didn't adjust for issues like injuries. But even we accept it is off by 20% in Indiana's favor there is still an enormous gap in Oklahoma City's favor.

Given that I don't think a match-up by match-up analysis is necessary. Oklahoma City should win this series comfortably because even if they underperform they are better.

The series by series data tells a similar story.

Code: Select all

Team    Wins   Losses    PD     Mov
Thunder   12       4      173   10.8
Pacers    12       4       66    4.1

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Opponent   Wins   Losses   PD     Mov     Opp. SRS     Adj. MOV
Thunder   First Round              Grizzlies     4       0     78   19.5       4.79        24.3
Thunder   Conference Semi-Finals   Nuggets       4       3     64    9.1       3.97        13.1
Thunder   Conference Finals        Wolves        4       1     31    6.2       5.15        11.4

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Opponent   Wins   Losses   PD     Mov     Opp. SRS     Adj. MOV
Pacers    First Round              Bucks         4       1     38    7.6       2.12         9.7
Pacers    Conference Semi-Finals   Cavs          4       1     17    3.4       8.81        12.2
Pacers    Conference Finals        Knicks        4       2     11    1.8       3.59         5.4

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Time with Lead    Time Behind    Ratio
Thunder   First Round              126.3               55.4          2.28
Thunder   Conference Semi-Finals   216.5              103.1          2.10
Thunder   Conference Finals        163.4               69.1          2.36
Pacers    First Round              168.5               64            2.63 
Pacers    Conference Semi-Finals   113.7              120           -1.05
Pacers    Conference Finals        157.8              114.9          1.37

The Oklahoma City-Denver series going seven looms large in people's impression of the Thunder but by the data that series wasn't particularly close.

Aside, Time lead/Behind is back of envelope. Exporting from b-r was a pain.

DARKO does a similar thing where they look at the entire season, but weigh recent games more and it says that OKC should be around 8 point favorites on neutral court
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UFev1ZRjl-T4cCGslRc9IeiBwPh84Khl_JFjokJ_sj8/edit?gid=0#gid=0

[MrPainfulTruth]

Haliburton and Siakam will have quick fouls in game 1. There will be tons of turnovers while on the other end, FTA will shoot 6 FT in the first half. A lot of Pacers fans will be upset with the officiating.

[durden_tyler]

I just don't see this as a particularly close match-up. Oklahoma City should comfortably win this series unless everything breaks Indiana's way.

That isn't meant as a knock on the Pacers. I'm not a bitter Knicks fan though I am disappointed we aren't here. Indiana has been playing at the level of a Finals team for several months. They are worthy of being here and in a normal year I'd give them a real shot. But Oklahoma City has been playing at the level of the best team in NBA history for months.

The table below shows every team team's record since the Luka trade, post-season included. Adjusted MOV is back-of-the-envelope to adjust for Home/Away splits and opponent's full-season SRS.



The performance gap between Oklahoma City and Indiana by adjusted Margin of Victory is as large as the gap between Indiana and Phoenix. Now adjusted MOV may be over-stating things a bit. I didn't adjust for issues like injuries. But even we accept it is off by 20% in Indiana's favor there is still an enormous gap in Oklahoma City's favor.

Given that I don't think a match-up by match-up analysis is necessary. Oklahoma City should win this series comfortably because even if they underperform they are better.

The series by series data tells a similar story.

Code: Select all

Team    Wins   Losses    PD     Mov
Thunder   12       4      173   10.8
Pacers    12       4       66    4.1

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Opponent   Wins   Losses   PD     Mov     Opp. SRS     Adj. MOV
Thunder   First Round              Grizzlies     4       0     78   19.5       4.79        24.3
Thunder   Conference Semi-Finals   Nuggets       4       3     64    9.1       3.97        13.1
Thunder   Conference Finals        Wolves        4       1     31    6.2       5.15        11.4

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Opponent   Wins   Losses   PD     Mov     Opp. SRS     Adj. MOV
Pacers    First Round              Bucks         4       1     38    7.6       2.12         9.7
Pacers    Conference Semi-Finals   Cavs          4       1     17    3.4       8.81        12.2
Pacers    Conference Finals        Knicks        4       2     11    1.8       3.59         5.4

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Time with Lead    Time Behind    Ratio
Thunder   First Round              126.3               55.4          2.28
Thunder   Conference Semi-Finals   216.5              103.1          2.10
Thunder   Conference Finals        163.4               69.1          2.36
Pacers    First Round              168.5               64            2.63 
Pacers    Conference Semi-Finals   113.7              120           -1.05
Pacers    Conference Finals        157.8              114.9          1.37

The Oklahoma City-Denver series going seven looms large in people's impression of the Thunder but by the data that series wasn't particularly close.

Aside, Time lead/Behind is back of envelope. Exporting from b-r was a pain.

Just accept it: Vegas knows their stuff


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sp6r=underrated]

Just accept it: Vegas knows their stuff


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Why do you a gamble so much if you believe sportslines are efficient?