2025 NBA Draft (2)

[76ciology]

Spoiler:

I need to watch an actual full game or 2, but when I see a 29.1 usg%, I have a hard time believing this. Not saying you are wrong.

Try this

Watch on YouTube

I watched this video and would recommend that folks specifically watch from 1:08:30 minute marker. Texas is up 4 and Johnson shows all of the worst aspects of his game. First opponent offensive possession he stops watching his guy and just stands in the paint. His guy goes to the 3 pt line and a teammate sets an off ball screen in case Johnson realizes he's lost his man. Johnson does and then makes a lazy effort to go around the screen and Xavier drains a 3.

Next offensive possession for Texas, Johnson takes a bad deep 3 pt shot; watches it and doesn't track his man to leaks on a long rebound fast break. Only notices his man is racing down the court as the pass is thrown and then makes a weak effort to foul the guy as he goes up for a layup for an and 1.

Next offensive possession, Xavier hard denies him the ball and Texas PG waives him off and you can visibly see Johnson sulking and pouting that he didn't get the ball when he wanted it.

In total, Johnson allowed a 4 pt lead to become a 2 pt deficit bc of his bad awareness and defensive IQ/effort.

Yeah, his defense needs work. But it could also be a reflection of his frustration with the team.. especially given how often he’s left out of their primary actions on offense and used more of a “bail out” guy. That might have thrown him off mentally.

Still he has the length and athleticism to become a much better defender. And at the end of the day, it’s his offensive upside that people value for a top-3 value. If not, then we might as well go for VJ or CMB because of their stellar defense.

[76ciology]

My take on upside

Drafting is essentially an exercise in projection, very similar to calculating expected value. It’s not just about looking at the potential payoff or ceiling of a player.. you also have to consider the probability of that outcome actually happening.

Smart drafting means weighing both the magnitude of the reward and the likelihood of achieving it.

It’s the same logic as not quitting your job and putting all your savings into the lottery just because the potential payout is huge. The reward may be high, but the probability is so low that the expected value is actually poor.

[76ciology]

A NBA scout from a lottery team told Barlowe that Jeremiah Fears is hot right now.

The scout said "I honestly think his draft range is anywhere from 2 through 5. I don’t know if he is going to be around at 7 for the Pelicans."

They continued to say they know New Orleans likes him and so does Brooklyn.

"Pelicans and Nets are the two teams I could see really trying to trade up into the top five

Fears is criticized for being inefficient, but actually he’s a more efficient scorer than Ace Bailey (53 TS% vs 56TS%)

[Stanford]

I'm pretty sure Morey has said that he doesn't believe rookies meaningfully contribute to winning in the playoffs anyway. So I'm not concerned about him prioritizing a "win-now" player in the draft. If he selects someone, it will be a long term play. The win now play is trading the pick.

[76ciology]

"That’s the plan. I think to get a high upside player that we also think can contribute right away is a big deal and we feel like 3 is a great spot to be."

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/sixers-daryl-morey-reacts-no-163218792.html

Why? Because targeting prospects who can contribute right away and still have a high ceiling suggests that their upside is attainable.. they already have a strong foundation in a valuable skill set.

Or else we might as well roll the dice on some Ulrich chomche, Bruno Cabuclo or Jonathan Mogbo.

[Negrodamus]

"That’s the plan. I think to get a high upside player that we also think can contribute right away is a big deal and we feel like 3 is a great spot to be."

Or else we might as well roll the dice on some Ulrich chomche, Bruno Cabuclo or Jonathan Mogbo.

No, I'm out on Maluach.

[Sixersftw]

A NBA scout from a lottery team told Barlowe that Jeremiah Fears is hot right now.

The scout said "I honestly think his draft range is anywhere from 2 through 5. I don’t know if he is going to be around at 7 for the Pelicans."

If our assets weren't headed by two small guards, I'd really heavily consider a trade back for Fears. He just seems like the prize of the mid/late lottery to me.

[Arsenal]

My take on upside

Drafting is essentially an exercise in projection, very similar to calculating expected value. It’s not just about looking at the potential payoff or ceiling of a player.. you also have to consider the probability of that outcome actually happening.

Smart drafting means weighing both the magnitude of the reward and the likelihood of achieving it.

It’s the same logic as not quitting your job and putting all your savings into the lottery just because the potential payout is huge. The reward may be high, but the probability is so low that the expected value is actually poor.

It depends how you calculate "expected value". In the NBA very few players, maybe 5% or less of the total players in the league, provide any measurable impact. All the rest are essentially fungible and interchangeable. The value drop-off from the top players is not linear, but exponential.

So you need to get players in that top 5%. Targeting role players that don't have that high of a ceiling is essentially worthless because you can always get those guys later.

[Black Mage]

Spoiler:

Try this

Watch on YouTube

I watched this video and would recommend that folks specifically watch from 1:08:30 minute marker. Texas is up 4 and Johnson shows all of the worst aspects of his game. First opponent offensive possession he stops watching his guy and just stands in the paint. His guy goes to the 3 pt line and a teammate sets an off ball screen in case Johnson realizes he's lost his man. Johnson does and then makes a lazy effort to go around the screen and Xavier drains a 3.

Next offensive possession for Texas, Johnson takes a bad deep 3 pt shot; watches it and doesn't track his man to leaks on a long rebound fast break. Only notices his man is racing down the court as the pass is thrown and then makes a weak effort to foul the guy as he goes up for a layup for an and 1.

Next offensive possession, Xavier hard denies him the ball and Texas PG waives him off and you can visibly see Johnson sulking and pouting that he didn't get the ball when he wanted it.

In total, Johnson allowed a 4 pt lead to become a 2 pt deficit bc of his bad awareness and defensive IQ/effort.

Yeah, his defense needs work. But it could also be a reflection of his frustration with the team.. especially given how often he’s left out of their primary actions on offense and used more of a “bail out” guy. That might have thrown him off mentally.

Still he has the length and athleticism to become a much better defender. And at the end of the day, it’s his offensive upside that people value for a top-3 value. If not, then we might as well go for VJ or CMB because of their stellar defense.

That isn't a good character trait to have with a team packed with Maxey and Joel. If Joel is able to play, Tre is going to be sulking a lot.

[Black Mage]

A NBA scout from a lottery team told Barlowe that Jeremiah Fears is hot right now.

The scout said "I honestly think his draft range is anywhere from 2 through 5. I don’t know if he is going to be around at 7 for the Pelicans."

They continued to say they know New Orleans likes him and so does Brooklyn.

"Pelicans and Nets are the two teams I could see really trying to trade up into the top five

Fears is criticized for being inefficient, but actually he’s a more efficient scorer than Ace Bailey (53 TS% vs 56TS%)

Just putting this out there, the "Lock On" casts have struck me as inferior sources of information and knowledge as a whole. More often it feels like the "Locked On" chanels are just being used as mouthpieces by organizations and/or agents that they gleefully play along with because it gives them content. The Jazz Locked on put out a series of pieces immediately after the lottery fiasco about how Ace, Tre, VJ, Kon are all elite prospects and the Jazz fans should be thrilled to be in a position to get one.

The more I try to listen to Barlowe, the more I'm left unimpressed with him. He loves just repeating talking points that others have made without really providing details of why he believes it or not.

[Arsenal]

A NBA scout from a lottery team told Barlowe that Jeremiah Fears is hot right now.

The scout said "I honestly think his draft range is anywhere from 2 through 5. I don’t know if he is going to be around at 7 for the Pelicans."

They continued to say they know New Orleans likes him and so does Brooklyn.

"Pelicans and Nets are the two teams I could see really trying to trade up into the top five

Fears is criticized for being inefficient, but actually he’s a more efficient scorer than Ace Bailey (53 TS% vs 56TS%)

Just putting this out there, the "Lock On" casts have struck me as inferior sources of information and knowledge as a whole. More often it feels like the "Locked On" chanels are just being used as mouthpieces by organizations and/or agents that they gleefully play along with because it gives them content. The Jazz Locked on put out a series of pieces immediately after the lottery fiasco about how Ace, Tre, VJ, Kon are all elite prospects and the Jazz fans should be thrilled to be in a position to get one.

The more I try to listen to Barlowe, the more I'm left unimpressed with him. He loves just repeating talking points that others have made without really providing details of why he believes it or not.

Yeah, most of this draft news is agenda-driven propaganda.

[Stanford]

Any podcast with a daily release mandate is going to be low content junk, for the most part.

[Negrodamus]

https://nikoza2.substack.com/p/ace-in-the-hole?r=avi2&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
The final boss of Ace Derangement Syndrome

[mjkvol]

If he’s bluffing, it could be a move to get non-Ace-believer teams to trade up.. possibly to flip the pick for Kneuppel or even Kasparas. But I don’t think he’d mind drafting either of them. It makes sense if he targets a high-upside player with a high floor at #3.. both guys can contribute right away and still have good upside. Morey even mentioned they’re considering the two timelines approach with this pick.

I'd be just fine with Jaku or Kon at #3 if we stay put. I'd rather trade down and grab one of them along with an extra pick, but if those are Morey's guys and a trade can't be worked out, give me either one.

[sodmoraes]

https://clutchpoints.com/nba/nba-stories/2025-nba-draft-big-board-3-0-rising-stars-top-10

Ace 2nd and Maluach 4th... i actually can see the spurs passing on Harper. Dont think his ceiling is that high. He will be a good player, but i dont think he will be that good.
Maluach seems to be rising on the mocks lately...

[Black Mage]

https://nikoza2.substack.com/p/ace-in-the-hole?r=avi2&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
The final boss of Ace Derangement Syndrome

Gotta love a guy that tries to mask his lack of experience by vaguely stating he has experience in 3 separate sports organizations while omitting 2 of them were as a 3 month intern where he probably mostly fetched coffee.

As for his hack job article...

In his "Sources of Edge" word salad article he actually admits it would be a better indicator to incorporate not just college but pre-college shooting data to give a larger sample size...BUT when he decides to chainsaw Ace, guess what he decides not to do? Yup, pull his high school data, especially free throws which he goes on to repeatedly bring up as being a sign of a poor shooter.

His entire article is a generic broad sweep using only shooting % without context. Doesn't take into account situational shooting. Ace often found himself on the short-end of a shot clock hand grenade and had to put it up. It ignores Ace's strengths and good shooting %'s in C&S and guarded C&S (43.9%) (something I think is grossly understated in his evaluation by these experts) and off-screen C&S 3's (40.7%). He also declares Ace having low IQ; yet if you actually watch his games he shows elements of advanced IQ especially as it involves reading cuts and timing them; reading defensive rotations and relocating to the open spots.

Then we get to his, I guess we call it a paragraph about defense kinda? He just blanket discusses Ace as an on-ball defender and then baldly declares his lack of IQ probably makes him a bad team defender. His exact statement:

"It is plausible that Ace’s lack of basketball IQ will also seep into his play on the defensive end of the floor, particularly off the ball."

I mean wow, seriously? You want to post an article about how smart you are and how you use numbers "ooooo" and then you make that dumb as sh** statement? Rutgers relied on Ace to be their defacto rim protector from a weak side help. He was quite successful at it too given the shooting percentages of opponents when he got involved near the rim (I believe it was 40% or such). Ace has enough tape to show he is anything but a low IQ player and he provides A LOT of value as an off-ball defender. Yes he had lapses, so do many of these other prospects and even most pros do, that doesn't make him low IQ.

Look, I want people to challenge and question Ace as a player; I can't tell you how many times comments from 76, Negro and others have made me stop and go back to recheck what I saw versus how they see it. That's the best kind of soundboarding we can do with each other. What I can't stand, is guys who state in their analytical article they use X,Y,Z formula and then the first article they write they don't follow their own formula or he drops analytics altogether and starts pontificating about personal "presumptions" he makes based not on what he has seen or data he has; but based on what he's heard/read others have said (which by the way is literally the definition of group think).

[LeonJordanJr24]

we have been owned on the boards by rebounding guards all of my life

and if VJ is JUST Jrue or D. White...two guys who were major parts of championship winning squads...I'll take it.

We aint a championship squad .. and we aint
A play off team. Ace has the highest upside position of need and we need length. We have plenty of guards already.

[LeonJordanJr24]

Ace sucks and will always suck

Ace is 18.. I'm not trading down for two rookies , a vet like cam johnson nor drafting a player who I think can play right now like VJ over upside. VJ is redundant and is not offensively gifted like that. He's 3 and D right now not Wade level prospect maybe Olidipo.? lol.... We are lucky to have the third pick. Draft highest upside Cooper, Harper or Ace.... I'm not getting cute with this pick bc everything is a crapshoot. Stop overating this team tryna find players like Jrue, white and bs that the Celtics won a chip with because we aint them. They built through the draft with Tatum and Brown. We are a lottery team with two old injury prone players on max contracts with multiyears left ...

[76ciology]

https://clutchpoints.com/nba/nba-stories/2025-nba-draft-big-board-3-0-rising-stars-top-10

Bailey can be a primary playmaker on the wing for his team, and he isn't scared of big moments against any opponent.

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=bJcUtOCSwzTqqyZgysWpbQ[/x]

[youngcrev]

Ace sucks and will always suck

Ace is 18.. I'm not trading down for two rookies , a vet like cam johnson nor drafting a player who I think can play right now like VJ over upside. VJ is redundant and is not offensively gifted like that. He's 3 and D right now not Wade level prospect maybe Olidipo.? lol.... We are lucky to have the third pick. Draft highest upside Cooper, Harper or Ace.... I'm not getting cute with this pick bc everything is a crapshoot. Stop overating this team tryna find players like Jrue, white and bs that the Celtics won a chip with because we aint them. They built through the draft with Tatum and Brown. We are a lottery team with two old injury prone players on max contracts with multiyears left ...

Redundant with who? I don't see any guards that fit the profile on the team.