2025 NBA FINALS: #1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #4 Indiana Pacers (IND leads 1-0)

[sp6r=underrated]

DARKO does a similar thing where they look at the entire season, but weigh recent games more and it says that OKC should be around 8 point favorites on neutral court
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UFev1ZRjl-T4cCGslRc9IeiBwPh84Khl_JFjokJ_sj8/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Milwaukee and Denver aren't Minnesota-KG level bad but they've done still did a poor job building a historic talent. There should be a lot of ambivalent feelings within each organization even though both ended up with a title. They had an opportunity to accomplish a lot more.

[MrPainfulTruth]

I just don't see this as a particularly close match-up. Oklahoma City should comfortably win this series unless everything breaks Indiana's way.

That isn't meant as a knock on the Pacers. I'm not a bitter Knicks fan though I am disappointed we aren't here. Indiana has been playing at the level of a Finals team for several months. They are worthy of being here and in a normal year I'd give them a real shot. But Oklahoma City has been playing at the level of the best team in NBA history for months.

The table below shows every team team's record since the Luka trade, post-season included. Adjusted MOV is back-of-the-envelope to adjust for Home/Away splits and opponent's full-season SRS.



The performance gap between Oklahoma City and Indiana by adjusted Margin of Victory is as large as the gap between Indiana and Phoenix. Now adjusted MOV may be over-stating things a bit. I didn't adjust for issues like injuries. But even we accept it is off by 20% in Indiana's favor there is still an enormous gap in Oklahoma City's favor.

Given that I don't think a match-up by match-up analysis is necessary. Oklahoma City should win this series comfortably because even if they underperform they are better.

Just accept it: Vegas knows their stuff


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Denver looks worse than the Pacers...

[lethalizer]

I just don't see this as a particularly close match-up. Oklahoma City should comfortably win this series unless everything breaks Indiana's way.

That isn't meant as a knock on the Pacers. I'm not a bitter Knicks fan though I am disappointed we aren't here. Indiana has been playing at the level of a Finals team for several months. They are worthy of being here and in a normal year I'd give them a real shot. But Oklahoma City has been playing at the level of the best team in NBA history for months.

The table below shows every team team's record since the Luka trade, post-season included. Adjusted MOV is back-of-the-envelope to adjust for Home/Away splits and opponent's full-season SRS.



The performance gap between Oklahoma City and Indiana by adjusted Margin of Victory is as large as the gap between Indiana and Phoenix. Now adjusted MOV may be over-stating things a bit. I didn't adjust for issues like injuries. But even we accept it is off by 20% in Indiana's favor there is still an enormous gap in Oklahoma City's favor.

Given that I don't think a match-up by match-up analysis is necessary. Oklahoma City should win this series comfortably because even if they underperform they are better.

Just accept it: Vegas knows their stuff


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Denver looks worse than the Pacers...

Well, they did say postseason is included. The MOV of Nuggets got a pretty good hit after that Thunder series. Think OKC finished with +64 over Denver in a 7 game series.

[sp6r=underrated]

Well, they did say postseason is included. The MOV of Nuggets got a pretty good hit after that Thunder series. Think OKC finished with +64 over Denver in a 7 game series.

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Opponent   Wins   Losses   PD     Mov     Opp. SRS     Adj. MOV
Thunder   First Round              Grizzlies     4       0     78   19.5       4.79        24.3
Thunder   Conference Semi-Finals   Nuggets       4       3     64    9.1       3.97        13.1
Thunder   Conference Finals        Wolves        4       1     31    6.2       5.15        11.4

Code: Select all

Team         Round                 Opponent   Wins   Losses   PD     Mov     Opp. SRS     Adj. MOV
Pacers    First Round              Bucks         4       1     38    7.6       2.12         9.7
Pacers    Conference Semi-Finals   Cavs          4       1     17    3.4       8.81        12.2
Pacers    Conference Finals        Knicks        4       2     11    1.8       3.59         5.4

The Denver series going seven was much closer to a series like 2008 Boston-Atlanta going seven than a truly competitive seven game series. Oklahoma City did outplay them over the course of it. By contrast the Pacers-Cavs series only went five but was actually fairly close.

[Special_Puppy]

DARKO does a similar thing where they look at the entire season, but weigh recent games more and it says that OKC should be around 8 point favorites on neutral court
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UFev1ZRjl-T4cCGslRc9IeiBwPh84Khl_JFjokJ_sj8/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Milwaukee and Denver aren't Minnesota-KG level bad but they've done still did a poor job building a historic talent. There should be a lot of ambivalent feelings within each organization even though both ended up with a title. They had an opportunity to accomplish a lot more.

Each org defiantly left 1-2 titles on the table

[sp6r=underrated]

DARKO does a similar thing where they look at the entire season, but weigh recent games more and it says that OKC should be around 8 point favorites on neutral court
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UFev1ZRjl-T4cCGslRc9IeiBwPh84Khl_JFjokJ_sj8/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Milwaukee and Denver aren't Minnesota-KG level bad but they've done still did a poor job building a historic talent. There should be a lot of ambivalent feelings within each organization even though both ended up with a title. They had an opportunity to accomplish a lot more.

Each org defiantly left 1-2 titles on the table

I don't know the count of titles they left on the table but they each left 3-4 years of serious title contention on the table. And that's a shame.

[Wizop]

The performance gap between Oklahoma City and Indiana by adjusted Margin of Victory is as large as the gap between Indiana and Phoenix.

Pacers winning almost 70% of the time with a low margin of victory is a reflection of their being very good in close (clutch) games. This is a significant improvement from last year's Pacer team which often collapsed late [see last year's ECF].

[Castle Black]

Sorry Pacers fans, but y'all are about to see a lot of this for the next 4-5 games. SGA is a virtual lock to win FMVP.

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[NY2k1]

The Pacers had a great run, but assuming OKC stays healthy, I can't see how they don't win. They're basically a better version of the Pacers but with an actual MVP-caliber player, and they're also fully healthy and well rested and have home court. Going to go with Thunder in 5.

That being said, there's a reason the games are played, so I very well could be wrong! We'll see.

[flow]

The last time a Finals team was this roundly & emphatically dismissed before the start of the series was in 2004. Followed by 2011.


Should be a good one, then.

.

[Woodsanity]

The last time a Finals team was this roundly & emphatically dismissed before the start of the series was in 2004. Followed by 2011.


Should be a good one, then.

.

Both the Heat and Lakers were very top heavy teams with mediocre role players. Wouldn't really compare them to the team oriented Thunder.

[31since1990]

If Turner play soft and unserviceable like he was in the Knicks series.....

[DrModesty]

The last time a Finals team was this roundly & emphatically dismissed before the start of the series was in 2004. Followed by 2011.


Should be a good one, then.

.

It was the 2018 Cavs. Everyone knew that the Warriors Rockets conference final was the actual battle for the title.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

Regardless of what happens, I’m super proud of this Pacers team. No one gave them a chance or paid attention to them all season. Before the season people called them a play-in team. In the first round they heard “Bucks don’t need Lillard to beat Indiana in 5,” then it became “Even without Garland, Cavs win easily,” to “Pacers finally have to face a healthy team, Knicks in 4.”

Right now, they are a massive underdog. I’ve said the whole time, I think the Pacers can beat any team in a 7 game series…except OKC. They just have insane counters for everything the Pacers like to do, but they’ve been proving people wrong all season and I’m hoping they can do it again.

Regardless of what happens though, this is such a fun team to watch. They all put their egos aside and play as a unit. Rare to see that these days and it’s been a blast to watch.

4 more to shock the world, let’s go!

[sp6r=underrated]

The performance gap between Oklahoma City and Indiana by adjusted Margin of Victory is as large as the gap between Indiana and Phoenix.

Pacers winning almost 70% of the time with a low margin of victory is a reflection of their being very good in close (clutch) games. This is a significant improvement from last year's Pacer team which often collapsed late [see last year's ECF].

Indiana has been remarkable at the end of games throughout this post-season but for them to have a chance against Oklahoma City they are going to have to considerably pick up their play through the first three quarters.

The Pacers road to the finals wasn't easy but the Thunder are considerably better than anything Indiana faced on the road to the finals.

[ShootersShoot]

Its tough to see the pacers being able to competently guard jdub and shai. Nesmith and nembhard are both a bit on the smallish side to guard their counterparts imo. They could put siakam on jdub and maybe have toppin out there with turner as well I suppose.

[Castle Black]

Read on Twitter

[dakomish23]

If the regular season is an indicator, it's going to be Nembhard on SGA

12/26 - 7/8 16 pts
3/29 - 4/10 11 pts

Nembhard had struggled with Brunson till he did that great job on him in game 6 so who knows what's going to happen

[dakomish23]

Regardless of what happens, I’m super proud of this Pacers team. No one gave them a chance or paid attention to them all season. Before the season people called them a play-in team. In the first round they heard “Bucks don’t need Lillard to beat Indiana in 5,” then it became “Even without Garland, Cavs win easily,” to “Pacers finally have to face a healthy team, Knicks in 4.”

Right now, they are a massive underdog. I’ve said the whole time, I think the Pacers can beat any team in a 7 game series…except OKC. They just have insane counters for everything the Pacers like to do, but they’ve been proving people wrong all season and I’m hoping they can do it again.

Regardless of what happens though, this is such a fun team to watch. They all put their egos aside and play as a unit. Rare to see that these days and it’s been a blast to watch.

4 more to shock the world, let’s go!

IDK Bill Simmons has been singing their praises for a while now

[3ddman23]

The last time a Finals team was this roundly & emphatically dismissed before the start of the series was in 2004. Followed by 2011.


Should be a good one, then.

.

One of those team had an all time great (Dirk),
While the other had 4 all stars on there team and the best defense center in the league.

I don't think it's comparable much. I can't think of any other NBA champion who comes close to Indiana in terms of make up roster wise.

That's why I have a hard time seeing the pacers winning this series. They don't have anything to go off of history wise to say they have the upper hand and should win this series.

They remind me of the 02-03 nets somewhat.

But like some said the games have to be played, so we'll see what happens.