ImageImageImage

**NBA Draft Discussion 2025**

Moderators: KingDavid, MettaWorldPanda, Wiltside, IggieCC, BFRESH44, QUIZ, heat4life

Who's the guard pick if all available at 20?

Poll ended at Thu Jun 26, 2025 1:35 pm

Jase Richardson
2
9%
Nolan Traore
4
17%
Walter Clayton Jr
14
61%
Ben Saraf
3
13%
 
Total votes: 23

User avatar
MettaWorldPanda
Forum Mod - Heat
Forum Mod - Heat
Posts: 51,305
And1: 161,126
Joined: Nov 16, 2014
     

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1061 » by MettaWorldPanda » Mon Jun 2, 2025 5:30 pm



Read on Twitter
User avatar
MettaWorldPanda
Forum Mod - Heat
Forum Mod - Heat
Posts: 51,305
And1: 161,126
Joined: Nov 16, 2014
     

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1062 » by MettaWorldPanda » Mon Jun 2, 2025 5:34 pm

Saraf got that mid 30’s Dragic craftiness to his game at 19 lol.
greg4012
General Manager
Posts: 8,055
And1: 12,378
Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1063 » by greg4012 » Mon Jun 2, 2025 5:45 pm

Interesting reddit post on Ben Saraf. If accurate, provides some compelling additional background on Saraf.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/1kzb78f/israeli_sarafs_fan_rant_trying_to_explain_why/

Ok. Here's my full scale Israeli Saraf's "stan" rant trying to explain why Saraf's achievements in Israel U18 and in Ulm are really under-appreciated

First, Ulm. German league is somewhat weaker (but not that much) than French league and certainly weaker than Spanish ACB. But specifically this season Ulm is different story that "generally" German league team. They played also in EuroCup (very good competition, maybe 2nd best outside NBA after EuorLeague) and looked rather good finishing on 50% 9w/9l , they finished 2nd in German BBL regular season just 1 win behind Bayern which is above average EuroLeague team, they also last week swept 3:0 in QF Alba Berlin (which technically was EuroLeague team, but the dead worst one to say the truth). Being the leader of good pro-team is very important and extremely rare for 18 y/o, for example in Killian Hayes' season in Ulm (which had similar to Saraf stats, with somewhat more efficient scoring) they were not good at all team - also played in EuroCup but was horrible really worst team there - 1w/9l, and below average team in German league.

Now about stats. Over 50 games for Ulm in all competitions he averages 12.4 on 46 / 31 / 75 split, 4.3 ast. He is now the best scorer of the team (which has very balanced scoring among their best players) together with 2020 51th pick Justian Jessup, and leads team by large margin in assists. He is playing almost exclusively PG (and I don't really know why he rated among SGs in mock drafts), and the team really has no other good option at #1. Plummer and Weidemann are smallish guards, quick and good ball-handlers - but they can't pass at all, both averaging ~ 2 ast with horrible ast/to ratio. And Jessup can distribute ball really good - but he is 6'7" wing which is rather slow and average ball handler. The only player of Ulm which is quick (Saraf is not slow at all, he just switches speed all the time, but his top gear is actually quick enough), the team's best ball handler, and clearly best distributor is Saraf, and he has huge impact on their success this season. Unlike what is said about him - Saraf is not bad shooter. He is good midrange pull-up shooter and his 3P shot success was low in Ulm to some level because the way they played - they have a lot good 3P shooters, and no good penetrators/distributors except Saraf so very large percent of his 3P shots was very hard 3P pull-ups to bail out stuck possession.

Speaking about Euro U18 where Saraf got MVP award. Usually MVP in such tournaments is the best player of winner team. It was not the case here. Israel lost in 2xOT to Serbia in semifinal, Saraf still got MVP award because he clearly was the best player in the field which included Traore, Essengue, Kasparas Jakucionis, Hugo Gonzales and others. It was probably the best performance of any player in any "age-category" Euro championship ... ever. Saraf averaged 28.1 pts(45 / 36 / 76 split ) , 5.0 rbs, 5.3 ast and 4 stl. No one scored 28+ ppg since 1998. No one scored more than Saraf since 1980s.

It's really weird how underrated and underappreciated Saraf is. If your favorite team has pick after #15 - they should take Ben Saraf
greg4012
General Manager
Posts: 8,055
And1: 12,378
Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1064 » by greg4012 » Mon Jun 2, 2025 5:47 pm

User avatar
DayofMourning
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 37,321
And1: 91,671
Joined: Jan 03, 2006
       

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1065 » by DayofMourning » Mon Jun 2, 2025 5:54 pm

Saraf and Fleming out of this draft works 4 me.
greg4012
General Manager
Posts: 8,055
And1: 12,378
Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1066 » by greg4012 » Mon Jun 2, 2025 6:20 pm

If the Heat like how Saraf's shooting potential looks when they scout him and work him out, it'll be very hard to pass on that creation upside
greg4012
General Manager
Posts: 8,055
And1: 12,378
Joined: Jul 14, 2008

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1067 » by greg4012 » Mon Jun 2, 2025 6:28 pm

greg4012 wrote:Interesting reddit post on Ben Saraf. If accurate, provides some compelling additional background on Saraf.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/comments/1kzb78f/israeli_sarafs_fan_rant_trying_to_explain_why/

Unlike what is said about him - Saraf is not bad shooter. He is good midrange pull-up shooter and his 3P shot success was low in Ulm to some level because the way they played - they have a lot good 3P shooters, and no good penetrators/distributors except Saraf so very large percent of his 3P shots was very hard 3P pull-ups to bail out stuck possession.


A bit more context to reference on the above from a good scouting article on Saraf from a month ago:

At this juncture, Saraf is a solid spot-up shooter. It was rare for him to receive the ball instead of passing it to a waiting shooter on the wings, but Saraf did take 54 catch-and-shoot three-pointers this season for Ratiopharm Ulm. He canned 38.9% of them and showed off a more fluid shooting form. It’s encouraging to see the freedom and calmness that Saraf has as a shooter, given that it’s not as clear when taking other jumpers.

Where the jury (me) is still hung on Ben Saraf’s shooting, is his pull-up game. If you go purely by Synergy’s numbers, Saraf profiles as a middling shooter in this area. He’s only hit 8/49 pull-up three-pointers this season, a stark difference from his spot-up numbers, which speaks to his lack of balance on this type of shot. It’ll limit Saraf’s ceiling as a point guard if he can’t start to hit more of these looks in the flow of the offense.

As a mid-range shooter, however, it’s a more complex story. Saraf has taken 110 mid-range dribble mid-range jump shots this season, a gargantuan number, and hit them at a 40.9% clip. That’s fair efficiency for the difficulty on these shots, as Saraf is showing off his isolation scoring ability in one-on-one situations. I’m much more encouraged by his mid-range shooting, based on this year and his FIBA tape, than by his pull-up from deep.


Need to see if shot doctors can get Saraf to develop a pull-up 3 ball if he wants to reach upside cases as a primary on-ball creator.
User avatar
Wiltside
Forum Mod - Heat
Forum Mod - Heat
Posts: 24,119
And1: 77,911
Joined: Sep 16, 2016

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1068 » by Wiltside » Mon Jun 2, 2025 9:25 pm

Saraf definitely got a bit of the Gogi’s about him
Formerly BG44, MB30 and Wade County at BasketballForum.com
twix2500
RealGM
Posts: 27,716
And1: 27,936
Joined: Dec 25, 2003
   

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1069 » by twix2500 » Mon Jun 2, 2025 10:08 pm

Is there a door to move up in the draft?
User avatar
MettaWorldPanda
Forum Mod - Heat
Forum Mod - Heat
Posts: 51,305
And1: 161,126
Joined: Nov 16, 2014
     

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1070 » by MettaWorldPanda » Mon Jun 2, 2025 10:11 pm

twix2500 wrote:Is there a door to move up in the draft?

Probably not unless you’re Brooklyn
lastb1ckman
Rookie
Posts: 1,123
And1: 1,207
Joined: Jul 31, 2020
   

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1071 » by lastb1ckman » Mon Jun 2, 2025 10:16 pm

Anyone have any Cs they're interested in? Guys that could actually play back up C? Thomas Sorber, Danny Wolf, Maxime Raynaud and Hasen Yang seem to be interesting to me. Though, im not sure how a lot of them will be on defense.
twix2500
RealGM
Posts: 27,716
And1: 27,936
Joined: Dec 25, 2003
   

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1072 » by twix2500 » Mon Jun 2, 2025 11:30 pm

twix2500
RealGM
Posts: 27,716
And1: 27,936
Joined: Dec 25, 2003
   

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1073 » by twix2500 » Mon Jun 2, 2025 11:57 pm

MettaWorldPanda wrote:
twix2500 wrote:Is there a door to move up in the draft?

Probably not unless you’re Brooklyn
I would trade back with Brooklyn if they want to give up Cam Johnson

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
User avatar
MettaWorldPanda
Forum Mod - Heat
Forum Mod - Heat
Posts: 51,305
And1: 161,126
Joined: Nov 16, 2014
     

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1074 » by MettaWorldPanda » Tue Jun 3, 2025 12:06 am

twix2500 wrote:
MettaWorldPanda wrote:
twix2500 wrote:Is there a door to move up in the draft?

Probably not unless you’re Brooklyn
I would trade back with Brooklyn if they want to give up Cam Johnson

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

They are discussing that package for another lottery pick.
User avatar
MettaWorldPanda
Forum Mod - Heat
Forum Mod - Heat
Posts: 51,305
And1: 161,126
Joined: Nov 16, 2014
     

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1075 » by MettaWorldPanda » Tue Jun 3, 2025 12:10 am

lastb1ckman wrote:Anyone have any Cs they're interested in? Guys that could actually play back up C? Thomas Sorber, Danny Wolf, Maxime Raynaud and Hasen Yang seem to be interesting to me. Though, im not sure how a lot of them will be on defense.

We really have to focus on a guard or a wing this draft at 20. Ware, Bam, and Jovic front court with Keshad Johnson developing doesn’t really need another young big who will barely play. Think we’ll be fine just signing a vet Center and picking up a Skyforce development prospect. PG or rotation wing behind Herro should be viewed as the highest priority.
twix2500
RealGM
Posts: 27,716
And1: 27,936
Joined: Dec 25, 2003
   

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1076 » by twix2500 » Tue Jun 3, 2025 12:11 am

Curious if the Heat are interested in Drake Powell
twix2500
RealGM
Posts: 27,716
And1: 27,936
Joined: Dec 25, 2003
   

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1077 » by twix2500 » Tue Jun 3, 2025 12:17 am

Looking at Clayton he doesn't have a great wing span but he does have a stocky buil. I can see him after hitting the weight room be a strong 210 lbs.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
User avatar
MettaWorldPanda
Forum Mod - Heat
Forum Mod - Heat
Posts: 51,305
And1: 161,126
Joined: Nov 16, 2014
     

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1078 » by MettaWorldPanda » Tue Jun 3, 2025 12:20 am

twix2500 wrote:Curious if the Heat are interested in Drake Powell

Great measurables and prototype 3/D prospect. Just might be too high for pick 20. I like Nique Clifford or Cedric Coward at 20 if we go the wing route and if still on the board.
User avatar
MettaWorldPanda
Forum Mod - Heat
Forum Mod - Heat
Posts: 51,305
And1: 161,126
Joined: Nov 16, 2014
     

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1079 » by MettaWorldPanda » Tue Jun 3, 2025 12:22 am

twix2500 wrote:Looking at Clayton he doesn't have a great wing span but he does have a stocky buil. I can see him after hitting the weight room be a strong 210 lbs.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

6’4 wingspan but has the build of a running back. Used to play football. Jase Richardson has a 6’6 wingspan. Saraf last recorded in 2024 was 6’7.5
User avatar
MettaWorldPanda
Forum Mod - Heat
Forum Mod - Heat
Posts: 51,305
And1: 161,126
Joined: Nov 16, 2014
     

Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1080 » by MettaWorldPanda » Tue Jun 3, 2025 1:21 am

Read on Twitter

Return to Miami Heat