tmorgan wrote:One_and_Done wrote:tmorgan wrote:
I don’t agree with this assessment (Paolo? Cade? Come on.), but ignoring that, who cares? Risacher was a weak ass #1 pick, as was Bennett. That doesn’t affect the value of drafting Harper any more than saying he might go 5th or 6th next year. Every draft is different.
Paolo wasn't even going #1 until right before the draft. Until the 11th hour people thought Jabari Smith was going #1, and Paolo was going #3. It's revisionist to suggest most people thought he'd be this good.
Cade has exploded this year, but he wasn't very hyped at the time, and some people didn't even think he should go #1. I feel pretty confident knowing what we did now about all 3 prospects that Harper would go first over them. He'd probably go behind both Zion and Morant though, and certainly behind Oden & KD. Every draft is different, but some guys are viewed more like #1 calibre picks, and some guys aren't. Harper would legitimately go #1 a bunch of years. If it wasn't for the optics, I'm not 100% convinced he wouldn't be getting more of a look in at #1 this year.
Paolo was going #1 the whole time. The Magic just didn’t tell anyone, because they were trying to figure out if trading out could still get them their guy. His skillset and size made a better prospect than Harper, zero doubt. He hasn’t developed as well as you’d like yet, but that’s not relevant here.
Cade was a better prospect if you care at all about winning. Harper has a cool highlight skill set with that handle, but Cade actually dragged a sad ass roster of zero other NBA talent to much better results. And Cade didn’t explode this year — he just had NBA caliber teammates and his defense has started to catch up. He was plenty hyped. He’s an actual point guard, even with that sloppy handle of his.
You chimed in numerous times during the season, even late in the season, about taking Harper over Flagg. I’ll just leave that here for others to evaluate.
Your reply just proves the point I was making. Nobody knew Paolo was even going #1, not even Paolo until right before the draft. Maybe the Magic really were going to take him all along, but if the hype for Paolo was really what you said it was then there wouldn’t have been so much uncertainty. Most mocks had J.Smith Jnr at #1 until the 11th hour. Contrast this to Harper, who is the consensus #2 and in a tier of his own, in what is perceived to be a better draft. Most mocks had Paolo going #3!
I liked Cade all along, and it didn’t take me this year to decide that… but the hype leading into the draft was not that loud. He measured smaller than expected (6-6 vs 6-8) and people were much less excited than they hoped to be given his lack of athleticism. Some people preferred Jalen Green at #2. I thought that was always silly, but the draft was perceived to have a “big 3” of Cade, Green, and Mobley, with pundits debating which should go #1. It looked a safe bet it would be Cade taken #1 leading into the draft, but those 3 players were seen as similar. I’m not certain Harper would have gone #1 in 2021, but he’d have had a fair chance.
I have said little about the draft this year until recently, and so far all I’ve really asked is “are we sure Harper is worse than Flagg?” I’m not saying Harper is better, but it seems like there’s more room to debate this than is being acknowledged, based off my limited scouting of them both. That said, the consensus about how good Harper is has been clear. He’s regarded as a guy who could go #1 some years.
I should add that while Ant has turned out great, the top of the 2020 draft wasn't rated very highly at the time either. It was a '3 way contest' for the #1 pick supposedly, between Ant, Wiseman and Ball. I thought that was crazy at the time, because Wiseman looked like trash to me, but that was the general perception. Note Duncan had Ball ranked #1 overall for eg.