If you feel the Pacers are going to beat the Thunder...

[Chuck Everett]

Nothing... sometimes people just think one team is better than the other.

It isn't complicated.

They are treating the pacers like a g league team lol

If I were a Pacers fan, I would have been so angered listening to the recent Bill Simmons Podcast. He and Russillo insinuated that it wasn’t worth “previewing” the Finals because the matchup was lopsided.

Like, we’ve been talking about the NBA season since Halloween! Why stop now!?

They are selling it that way because if they're "wrong," then they can flip it around and say it's either the biggest choke or the greatest upset of all time (by the Thunder) and then they can do a million-and-one pods (over the summer and into next season) about how this is devastating for OKC and they may never recover from a more perfect opportunity to win a chip. It's a content hedge.

Think about this. Everything they cite is analytics based, yet they still felt Cleveland would roll Indiana just because, not actually looking at the player matchups, things like shooting variance, injury concerns. Boston wasn't in trouble in their minds until they were down 3-1. Somehow Denver, with an interim coach was able to make OKC play ugly AF in multiple games with an injured team. You can't use analytics for everything. You still have to watch the games and see what some of these teams do well.

Minnesota played right into OKC's hands because they collectively do not value the basketball. Total opposite of the team Indiana is. OKC may totally dominate the Pacers, but if they do, it's not going to be because SGA was awesome. He's a given. It's going to be because Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren have reached their final form and all their playoff armor has been built. If it's a 6-7 gamer (in either direction), it's probably going to be because the latter two are still not consistent enough to be great every night.

[UcanUwill]

And also, the brainfart from the players and coach in Game 1.

And then coach used same exact tactic in conference finals. I have far more faith in Carlisle from coaching perspective.

Agrees. Indiana definitely has the coaching advantage.

Rick Carlisle is a future HOFer won a championship in 2011 with the Mavs. Great coach, very experienced. Good Pacers team.

OKC coach is young, up and coming, still learning. His time will come. He may win a Championship this year or next. His team is very good as well.

But from a coaching perspective? Rick Carlisle is the most reliable one.

I am generally a big believer in Mark Daigneault, but I do not know what is he thinking fouling instantly in those games. I always was pro fouling, I said but I am even one of those guys who foul up two, because I have seen games where team hits a 3 and its devastating loss, but big part of why you start fouling is not just that you don't allow them to score 3 points, but also because time is running out. Mark has a game with 19.8 still left and he instructs his guys to foul instantly, I mean 0.4 seconds into the clock, in those 19 seconds, we had 3 or 4 different trips to the line in that game, at this point, you just turned one shot clock game into FT shooting lottery. If I am down 3 with 19 seconds to go and you tell me I can give 2 points back by cutting 0.5 seconds from the clock, I take that every time, am I crazy? He is literally helping the other team at that point. You foul when you know time is running out, but no, he voluntarily turns the game into FT shooting contest. He already burned badly and he learned nothing, I now fear those close games.

[Andri]

I would have 75% chances for OKC, 25% for Indiana. OKC are the clear favourites, but IMO games could have great variance due to Pacers either committing (or forced to commit) a lot of TO's or very few (OKC hasn't face a team that protects the ball so well). Mixed with the variance of 3 point shooting, that OKC will allow to average shooters. And lastly, I trust Carlisle to have an edge over MD.

So, Pacers have still a chance, not so small as I'm hearing, but they are still the clear underdogs

[manlisten]

The only weakness OKC really had was inexperience and they seem to have grown up over the course of this playoff run. This version of OKC probably beats Denver in 5 games.

[Bush4Ever]

I'm a Celtics fan living in Indiana.

So in a sense, my heart is with Indiana (Larry Bird influence!).

That said, the smart money is a simple, straightforward win for OKC that will probably be competitive, but not especially close.

Of course, that was the same line used in NY/Boston and Indy/Clev as well

[ryan in Maine]

I saw it in their eyes.

It does seem like Nembhard is being possessed by the Basketball Gods sometimes. He’d probably sell his soul to shoot 56/48/83 in the Finals like he did last playoffs.

Indy would definitely love that. Seriously though -- I saw it in their eyes in the third quarter of game 1 vs Cleveland.

[benhillboy]

I expect it to be far more competitive than the 5% chance BBRef gives the Pacers. Much higher level of team basketball than we saw in last years Final. I would’ve had a nervous breakdown if Boston made it back they’re terrible.

Whoever wins will be very deserving, and I’m talking front office, coaches, and fanbases, let alone players. I can see Indy getting run in the first two but definately showing up in the Fieldhouse.

[Effigy]

If you think that, truly think that, Go throw a hundy down on it. You're getting nice odds.

[benhillboy]

I saw it in their eyes.

It does seem like Nembhard is being possessed by the Basketball Gods sometimes. He’d probably sell his soul to shoot 56/48/83 in the Finals like he did last playoffs.

Indy would definitely love that. Seriously though -- I saw it in their eyes in the third quarter of game 1 vs Cleveland.

Yeah I been following all season. I knew they were trained to go when I read a way-too-detailed essay on Nembhard’s defense.
They play with the chemistry of the pre-KD Warriors, the 5th Spurs championship squad, and recent deep run Heat teams. Like all those teams, there’s a heavy Spurs Dynasty AKA “The Beautiful Game” influence in the pace of the halfcourt offense. That type of team magic can yield amazing, unbelievable results despite all odds. The ball kinda becomes your sixth man. Then that beautiful flow on offense directly leads to being on an absolute string on the other end, raising the level of even your worst defenders.

[morosis]

I think one of the big things that gives IND a chance is their mental toughness. IND doesnt seem to panic, lose their cohesiveness or trust in each other, or give up their identity when they are trailing. And I think they'll be trailing for a huge % of possessions in this series.

it may be some of the more "voodoo" kind of stuff that fans like me come to believe, but I feel like when a team gets down 10+ there are guys who think "oh god we cant let this get worse" and get a bit panicky, and there are guys who know its a game of runs and our time is coming so just play through it and trust. My favorite thing about watching IND this postseason has been how you really cant tell by their body language or decision making whether they are up 10 or down 10 at any given time.

edit: after thinking about this a tiny bit more, i might actually trust the Pacers more when they are trailing by 10 than when they are up by 10. lol.

[benhillboy]

For all the advantages OKC has over Indy, they are at a deficit in two areas for the first time this playoffs-

1. coaching
2. depth

.

Everyone agrees with 1, but I can’t on 2.
OKCs 9th man in these playoffs (Joe) leads the playoffs in 2 point shooting percentage (77%) and is a well-respected pure shooter from deep. They were right there in lockstep with the Pacers, Cavs, and Grizzlies all season in terms of kicking butt with end-of-rotation guys.

I'll elaborate. I'm not comparing bench guys 1 v. 1. No doubt OKC has quality & shooting on the bench. I'm saying Indy goes 10-11 deep as part of their standard rotation. They sub in waves and stay fresh, both up front and in the back court, throughout the game with little drop-off. That's something OKC hasn't faced. They're used to wearing their opponent down and being the fresher team.

.

Oh I hear that. OKC also hasn’t faced a team yet in the playoffs who cut and back screen (and feign all these actions) as well as the Pacers, which places all types of strain on communication. They certainly would’ve had they faced a Curry-led Warriors team but what can you do.

[tamaraw08]

And also, the brainfart from the players and coach in Game 1.

And then coach used same exact tactic in conference finals. I have far more faith in Carlisle from coaching perspective.

Agrees. Indiana definitely has the coaching advantage.

Rick Carlisle is a future HOFer won a championship in 2011 with the Mavs. Great coach, very experienced. Good Pacers team.

OKC coach is young, up and coming, still learning. His time will come. He may win a Championship this year or next. His team is very good as well.

But from a coaching perspective? Rick Carlisle is the most reliable one.

Call me crazy, probably a Caruso fanatic but I just don't know why Mark would play Alex for 22 mins/game in the playoffs.
I'm not sure if he is nursing an injury but the guy plays really good defense, INCLUDING how he guarded the freaking Jokic AND shooting 41.5% from 3.
Not a few felt the first 2 games vs the TWolves were a massacre from the start but Minnesota was right there fighting within 5 pts for the first 25-28 minutes of the games and I believe it's because some questionable decisions of Mark. Not saying he is dumb but .... what do I know?

[cgf]

If you truly believe the Pacers are going to defeat the Thunder....What do you think the masses are missing..

1. Their offense isn't just good, it might be the best in the NBA, and how hard they push is just exhausting
2. Their defense is not just OK, it's actually pretty good with some really good defenders and high pressure style.
3. How well they leverage their depth to wear out opposing stars, even against deeper teams like Cleveland.
4. How lethal Haliburton has become in crunchtime
5. How good of a coach Carlisle is.

People who don't watch them can scoff at the idea that Nembhard and Nesmith being out, while Hali wasn't 100% but still playing, could so massive dragging them down...but they're so dangerous because all of the pieces make the whole a lot more than the sum of it's parts. And those are some really nice parts.

[ball_takes23]

for the Pacers to win they need to stop SGA, hes a better shooter than he is a passer, opposite of Luka/Lebron. get the ball out of his hands, make the others beat you.

[tamaraw08]

If you truly believe the Pacers are going to defeat the Thunder....What do you think the masses are missing..

1. Their offense isn't just good, it might be the best in the NBA, and how hard they push is just exhausting
2. Their defense is not just OK, it's actually pretty good with some really good defenders and high pressure style.
3. How well they leverage their depth to wear out opposing stars, even against deeper teams like Cleveland.
4. How lethal Haliburton has become in crunchtime
5. How good of a coach Carlisle is.

People who don't watch them can scoff at the idea that Nembhard and Nesmith being out, while Hali wasn't 100% but still playing, could so massive dragging them down...but they're so dangerous because all of the pieces make the whole a lot more than the sum of it's parts. And those are some really nice parts.

What the heck do you mean being out? Am I and google missing something?

[cgf]

If you truly believe the Pacers are going to defeat the Thunder....What do you think the masses are missing..

1. Their offense isn't just good, it might be the best in the NBA, and how hard they push is just exhausting
2. Their defense is not just OK, it's actually pretty good with some really good defenders and high pressure style.
3. How well they leverage their depth to wear out opposing stars, even against deeper teams like Cleveland.
4. How lethal Haliburton has become in crunchtime
5. How good of a coach Carlisle is.

People who don't watch them can scoff at the idea that Nembhard and Nesmith being out, while Hali wasn't 100% but still playing, could so massive dragging them down...but they're so dangerous because all of the pieces make the whole a lot more than the sum of it's parts. And those are some really nice parts.

What the heck do you mean being out? Am I and google missing something?

They started the season 10-15 because Nembhard & Nesmith were out, and Hali was still banged up. And that poor start made people assume they were a fluke, like the 21 hawks. But getting those guys healthy has been transformative for them. And they are now proving that last year's run was no fluke.

[jowglenn]

I've already witnessed three utter miracle comebacks by the Pacers in these playoffs. Why would I doubt them? They've clearly got divine providence on their side.

[bbms]

I've already witnessed three utter miracle comebacks by the Pacers in these playoffs. Why would I doubt them? They've clearly got divine providence on their side.

finally someone touch the point on how pacers beat the thunder

a miracle. divine providence.

[Edrees]

Rick carlisle has done it before with even worse odds stacked against him. Pacers got a better chance than I thought mavs had against the Heat with 1 vs 3 superstars

[pushfloater]

They have consistently overachieved in these playoffs. They have 5 guys that can make a 3 in their starting lineup. They have no ego. They are unselfish. They play hard. Them winning wouldn't surprise me...