MrSparkle wrote:Dan Z wrote:MrSparkle wrote:
Well, you don’t get “fair” value in this scenario, but Milwaukee can get a farm.
Barnes, RJ (or Ingram), Dick, and then 6 FRPs (unprotected, 2-3 of them being swaps) would be a pretty decent offer… Raps try to get back some of Bucks’ unwanted/near-expiring vets to help depth (Pat, Prince, whoever).
I think Toronto would still have a solid rotation. Walter, Boucher (resigned), etc. Very strong starting 5 (Quick, Ochai, Ingram, Giannis, Poeltl).
Milwaukee is left with a team of Barnes, RJ, Dick, Portis (resigned?), Lopez (resigned?), AJ Green, Kuzma, an injured Lillard and the #9 pick in 2025. That's worse than the current Raptors team, which just finished with a 30 wins season.
They'd have no control of their own picks, but would have three late ones from Toronto (late because they'd be a good team with Giannis) and 2-3 swaps. Or 4 picks plus swaps if they did the deal after the draft (trading the draft rights to the #9 pick instead of the pick itself).
The Bucks would be better off keeping Giannis than do this deal.
They could modify pick details with Toronto (maybe 4 swaps, whatever), but I don’t think a 23yo All-Star, 24yo improving 2nd option, and another 3P prospect is a bad haul for a near-expiring 30yo Giannis, if he tells Milwaukee he’s not resigning. Bucks aren’t really in position to compete with their situation, so they can’t be that worried about their FRPs the next 2-3Y. They basically need a talented depth chart, and make it through 2-3 rough years. Lillard returning next year could be an interim boost (atleast he becomes a near-expiring trade chip if anything).
The other teams that could offer the best package for Giannis are Houston, OKC and SAS. I think Toronto, if willing to move Barnes, has a good place to start negotiating. On an individual level, I don’t think the other teams would offer their best player (maybe Amen or Sengun). Barnes would arguably be the best single star available for trade.
Of course Bucks could just hold Giannis and hopelessly compete. I’d probably prioritize that scenario if I was their GM. OTOH, Luka Lakers will have Lebron expiring, and the cap-space to join them together. If Giannis doesn’t ink an extension by next summer, I’d be highly concerned about that playing out in 2027.
It’s a dicey scenario. You have a healthy Giannis with 2 years left before the player option. It’s a secure time to deal him at high value. With Lillard’s injury and their lack of assets, the roster is going to be very bad short of miracle additions, like some kind of young Caruso, Reaves, Strus pickups. But they could just gamble on Dame coming back and them having a decent enough team next season to get him to resign.
If Milwaukee makes that trade with Toronto then they're locked into a roster that is lead by RJ and Barnes. They're not bad players, but how far have they lead Toronto?
If the Bucks trade Giannis they need some sort of hope that they can rebuild and move on to the next iteration of their team. You've mentioned Houston...what about Sengun, Reed, Whitmore plus picks? Or SA...#2 pick, Castle and picks? I'm sure the Bucks will want to involve New Orleans so they can get their swap (2026) and pick (2027) back.
If trading Giannis means they're stuck with a team going nowhere then they might as well keep him, even if he leaves in two years.
I would love to have Thibs back here - NY can take Billy.
