keevsnick1 wrote:playa-hater wrote:If Brad Stevens feels Dylan hopper could be another Cade Cunningham. Type player you absolutely attempt to trade brown for him.
Does it really matter if he's ready in his first or a second year too lead...You don't pass on great talent if you have a chance to get it.
I am not sure if I will put him equal to cade cunningham, but I certainly think he's on the same tier
Actually, no you don't. When you are a contending team, which is what you are with Tatum/Brown, you don't trade one of those guys for a high draft pick when both are still in their prime. Because even if you "feel" a guy will eventually be good the keys is he very well might not be, and almost definitely won't be immediately.
People treat these prospects as sure things; they very much are not. The first pick is usually very good, but once you get past that things drop of quickly. i looked up the outcomes of picks 2-5 for the 2006-2021 drafts (22-24 are too early to tell). But of those 18 years the and the 72 players picked 2-5 in those drafts only 28 went on to make at least one all-star team. Thats a 38% chance to get a guy who makes at least one all-star team.
Not all draft classes are equal.
I mentioned this the other day (in this thread, I believe) but Harper is a Cade/Paolo level prospect imo (meaning they're all roughly about as good as each other prior to being drafted). Cade and Paolo were both no. 1 picks. Harper goes 1st in a lot of drafts. Just not this one, because of how good Flagg is.
No, I'm not saying Harper is a sure thing. Nobody is. Not even Flagg. But there's levels to this. And you have to actually study these prospects, watch them play, etc. to identify how good they are, what their upside is, what the probability is that they reach various outcomes, etc. rather than just saying "oh, picks in the 2-5 range, a lot of them don't work out and only x% of them have become stars.." you have to dig deeper than that.
But again, it's likely a moot point because I highly doubt we trade for him..