Retro Player of the Year 2014-15

[AEnigma]

General Project Discussion Thread

Ballots, POY Discussion, OPOY/DPOY Discussion, and Results from the Official Player of the Year voting in 2015.

In this thread we'll discuss and vote on the top 5 players and the top 3 offensive and defensive players of 2014-15.

Player of the Year (POY)(5) — most accomplished overall player of that season
Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)(3) — most accomplished offensive player of that season
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)(3) — most accomplished defensive player of that season

Voting will close sometime after 00:00AM PST on Saturday, June 14th, in order to give everyone a reasonable chance for input prior to the end of the Finals (at which point full attention should go to Doctor MJ’s 2025 Award Voting thread).

Valid ballots must provide an explanation for your choices that gives us a window into how you thought and why you came to the decisions you did. You can vote for any of the three awards — although they must be complete votes — but I will only tally votes for an award when there are at least five valid ballots submitted for it.

Remember, your votes must be based on THIS season. This is intended to give wide wiggle room for personal philosophies while still providing a boundary to make sure the award can be said to mean something. You can factor things like degree of difficulty as defined by you, but what you can't do is ignore how the player actually played on the floor this season in favor of what he might have done if only...

You may change your vote, but if you do, edit your original post rather than writing, "hey, ignore my last post, this is my real post until I change my mind again.” I similarly ask that ballots be kept in one post rather than making one post for Player of the Year, one post for Offensive Player of the Year, and/or one post for Defensive Player of the Year. If you want to provide your reasoning that way for the sake of discussion, fine, but please keep the official votes themselves in one aggregated post. Finally, for ease of tallying, I prefer for you to place your votes at the beginning of your balloting post, with some formatting that makes them stand out. I will not discount votes which fail to follow these requests, but I am certainly more likely to overlook them.

Contrarian votes can be and have been sincere, but they look a lot more sincere when you take the time to fully present your reasoning rather than transparently pretend nothing is amiss.

Vote sincerely. Do not move a player down in your voting to give another player an advantage. I would encourage every voter to give some explanations while they do their voting - but particularly if you have a top 5 that deviates strongly with the norm and you haven't expressed your thoughts on it earlier in the thread. If I'm not satisfied, I may ask you for more of an explanation - and it may come to actually booting people out of the project.

The rules here are that you've got to use the same type of thinking for all 5 votes. I understand putting more thought into #1 than #5, but I don't want PJ Brown votes. Voters do Brown type votes to give a guy an honorable mention. Makes sense if people only care about who finishes 1st, but I've been clear that I want to measure more than that. I've been trying to encourage literal "honorable mentions" to serve that purpose, and I'd ask that people use that as the way they honor guys who did something special but who aren't actually a top 5 guy that year.

There is a significant difference between a properly justified and internally consistent contrarian vote, and a vote whose purpose is to undermine the project itself. Ballots which threaten to do the latter and derail project discussion via blatant vote manipulation are liable to be tossed. If it happens twice, the offending poster will be removed from the project.

Current Voter List

Spoiler:

This is an addendum thread to the project, with the intent to do one annually around this time to fill some of the empty space between Finals games (2016 next June, 2017 the June after that, etc.).

[ShotCreator]

What are the odds people have a richer understanding of that season now than the posters did back then? I know I don’t and it’s probably the second most memorable season of the decade for me.

[Djoker]

Steph at #1, Lebron at #2 I feel pretty confident about. Don't see Lebron's inefficient albeit impressive carryjob attempt being enough to overtake Curry who's had a better season from start to finish and also very strong in the playoffs. Weird season with so many stars like KD, George, Kyrie injured. Pretty weak year overall. Other contenders to fight for the ballot are CP3, Kawhi, Westbrook, Harden...

[Top10alltime]

Tough year. It looks like Steph has his one and only year as POY (huge gap in the RS), until you realize Lebron has an incredible PO, went 12-4 in his conference, his 3rd best player missed most of the PO, swept a 60 win team with Kyrie playing only 48 total minutes. Also took 2 games from Warriors, with 2 best players missing.

So it's probably a wash to me for whose the POY. The next players that could contend for the next spots are Westbrook, CP3, Kawhi, and Harden.

For the DPOY, I don't really know who to pick, have to think about this a LOT more.
For the OPOY, it's clearly Steph. There is no argument for anyone this year other than him, other than CP3. For others, Harden, CP3, Bron and Westbrook are in the running....

[AEnigma]

For the DPOY, I don't really know who to pick, have to think about this a LOT more.

Do not see why it would be anyone other than Draymond.

[One_and_Done]

With hindsight it was probably Lebron. Everyone kind of got caught up in Warrior mania, but it was their team that beat the Cavs, not Curry.

[Top10alltime]

For the DPOY, I don't really know who to pick, have to think about this a LOT more.

Do not see why it would be anyone other than Draymond.

I forgot Draymond , he will be my definite DPOY, still need to think on the others though.

[One_and_Done]

For the DPOY, I don't really know who to pick, have to think about this a LOT more.

Do not see why it would be anyone other than Draymond.

Well, because Kawhi exists.

[AEnigma]

For the DPOY, I don't really know who to pick, have to think about this a LOT more.

Do not see why it would be anyone other than Draymond.

Well, because Kawhi exists.

Kawhi played fifteen fewer games, “led” a worse defence (without what we could characterise as appreciably worse support), and went out in the first round.

[Djoker]

Looking at the last iteration of the project, a lot of people were pretty low on Lebron this season. He had a lot of 3rd and 4th place finishes. His impact numbers don't look super strong in the playoffs but I think I can't put a guy like Harden over him. In the 69 games he played, the Cavs had a +6 rORtg and his impact stats are good so his problem is the missed games not poor play. In the PS his jumper was broken which hurt the offense and thus the overall impact but I still think he's probably pretty securely #2. Kawhi isn't in his prime yet, I just don't trust Harden nor do I think he's a big impact guy on O (while being a negative on D) and Westbrook is in the same boat as Harden and missed the PS.

As for DPOY, Draymond #1 is an easy choice. Kawhi #2 probably. Mozgov flies under the radar and could make my ballot. I posted his and the other Cavs' rim protection numbers in one of the old threads (and just dug it up!) and he looks like a DPOY candidate especially in the PS. Just elite stuff from the big Russian but then the next season he suddenly stops getting minutes, starts getting hurt and never makes much noise in the NBA. Funny how it goes sometimes.

2015 Cavaliers - Regular Season
Lebron James: 63.8 dFG% (97/152) +5.1%
Tristan Thompson: 56.6 dFG% (218/385) -2.3%
Timofey Mozgov: 52.6 dFG% (257/489) -6.4%
Kevin Love: 56.0 dFG% (232/414) -2.8%

Lebron actually struggled defending the rim in the RS. Mozgov looks like the best defender on the team by some distance.

2015 Cavaliers - Playoffs
Lebron James: 52.8 dFG% (38/72) -6.9%
Tristan Thompson: 56.2 dFG% (68/121) -2.4%
Timofey Mozgov: 42.9 dFG% (42/98) -16.5%
Kevin Love: 61.9 dFG% (13/21) +3.7%

Love got injured in the first round. In the playoffs Lebron looks a whole lot better but Mozgov is again the Cavs' most impactful defender.

[AEnigma]

I just don't trust Harden nor do I think he's a big impact guy on O

Seems like an odd reading. I have him as an easy second for OPoY, or maybe third if we do not care much about minutes. I could argue him fourth, but that would not be much of an impact argument so much as a playoff-specific argument.

[Djoker]

I just don't trust Harden nor do I think he's a big impact guy on O

Seems like an odd reading. I have him as an easy second for OPoY, or maybe third if we do not care much about minutes.

I might have him #2 in OPOY too.

I meant it in the context that he isn't an all-timer offensively and then drops off in the playoffs. In later seasons from 2018-2020, he actually is an all-timer offensively in the regular season.

[Top10alltime]

I just don't trust Harden nor do I think he's a big impact guy on O

Seems like an odd reading. I have him as an easy second for OPoY, or maybe third if we do not care much about minutes. I could argue him fourth, but that would not be much of an impact argument so much as a playoff-specific argument.

What would be your top 3 players in OPoY? Mine would be Steph (should be unanimous), CP3, and Lebron.

[AEnigma]

I just don't trust Harden nor do I think he's a big impact guy on O

Seems like an odd reading. I have him as an easy second for OPoY, or maybe third if we do not care much about minutes. I could argue him fourth, but that would not be much of an impact argument so much as a playoff-specific argument.

What would be your top 3 players in OPoY? Mine would be Steph (should be unanimous), Harden, and Lebron.

Generally leaning that way, although the third spot is tight between Paul and Lebron. Westbrook could have been in contention too if the Thunder had made the playoffs.

[lessthanjake]

Steph seems like the obvious POY here. Led a 67-win title-winning team, winning regular season MVP, and was tremendously impactful.

In terms of that impact, he was easily 1st in EPM, with a massive +8.8. He was 1st in RAPTOR, with an incredible +11.0. He was 1st in LEBRON by a lot. He was 1st in MAMBA, with the second-highest score in the metric’s history, behind only Steph’s next year. In the playoffs, he was also easily 1st in playoff EPM. Single-season RAPM is very noisy, but he was also 1st in RAPM without any priors (as per TheBasketballDatabase’s one-year RAPM). Steph isn’t quite 1st in the stuff that is single-season PI RAPM, but that methodology has lagged effects when a player is rapidly improving, since it uses previous years’ RAPMs as the prior (which is why, for instance, Engelmann’s PI RAPM has LeBron’s 2011 as his highest year), so it would tend to downplay a guy on the ascension like Steph at this point. Overall, the impact case for Steph this year is extremely strong.

The box data case is also strong. Notably, he led the league in BPM fairly easily. He led the league in Thinking Basketball’s BPM fairly easily as well. He also led the league in WS/48. In the playoffs, he also led the league in BPM. He was 2nd in the playoffs in Thinking Basketball’s BPM, but only behind Chris Paul, who got injured in the second round. He was 3rd in playoff WS/48, but only behind Chris Paul (who got injured in the second round) and Tim Duncan (who only played in the first round)

So we have a guy who has a very clear case as the #1 player by impact metrics and the #1 player by box metrics. He won MVP. His team won 67 games, and they also won the title. This is pretty simple choice IMO.

It’s made even simpler by some of the other best players in the league not putting their best foot forward this year. LeBron did make the Finals, but he actually struggled in the playoffs—having a negative rTS% in every single playoff series. The Cavs made it to the Finals anyways and even won 2 games there despite crucial injuries, so it couldn’t have been all bad from him, but this was definitely a down year for him and the Cavs were probably fairly lucky to be in a weak conference and to have guys really step up defensively. Meanwhile, Chris Paul got injured in the playoffs. Kawhi’s Spurs lost in the first round (albeit to a very good team), and he wasn’t quite a real star offensively yet. Harden had a very good year (and deserves to be somewhere in the top 5 IMO), but wasn’t quite at his peak yet. Durant missed almost the whole year. Westbrook was actually good, but OKC didn’t even make the playoffs. Anthony Davis was very good, but the Pelicans got swept in the first round (though I don’t have much of any criticism of his play in that series).

Of course, one thing people talk about with 2015 Steph is that he didn’t win Finals MVP. On that front, I just want to post again this video, which I think exemplifies the huge impact Steph had in the Finals—with the Cavaliers having a game plan designed around loading up like crazy on Steph, which opened up things for the rest of the team. To me, it’s quite obvious he should’ve been Finals MVP, but regardless of that rabbit hole, it’s definitely undeniable that he had incredible impact in the series.

Watch on YouTube

Aside from Steph, I think LeBron would probably be #2, in recognition of the Cavs making the Finals and putting up a pretty good fight there (4-2 loss with a -7.2 MOV wasn’t really a very close series in the end, but definitely a good fight under the circumstances). I’m not convinced he was the 2nd best player that year. For instance, Harden, CP3, and Anthony Davis were all ahead in both regular season EPM and playoff EPM. But, for POY purposes, I put value on a player’s achievements in a given year, and that gets LeBron ahead of those guys because he made the Finals. I think Harden is #3, and is probably the only one I’d seriously consider for #2. I think Chris Paul might’ve been a better player than Harden at this point, but Chris Paul got injured in the playoffs, and Harden didn’t. I’d put Chris Paul #4, and then #5 is either Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, or Russell Westbrook. Westbrook not making the playoffs makes me lean against him, and I’d probably go AD over Kawhi just because it didn’t feel like Kawhi was quite there yet. But I don’t really feel strongly about #5.

[wafflzgod]

POY:
1) Curry
2) Lebron
3) CP3
4) Harden
5) AD
HMs: Russ, Kawhi

OPOY:
1) Curry
2) Lebron
3) CP3

DPOY:
1) Draymond
2) Kawhi
3) AD

[Special_Puppy]

What are the odds people have a richer understanding of that season now than the posters did back then? I know I don’t and it’s probably the second most memorable season of the decade for me.

A lot of the more modern stats like DARKO, EPM, LEBRON, RAPTOR, and updated BPM weren’t out at in 2015

[Special_Puppy]

POY:
1) Curry
2) Lebron
3) CP3
4) Harden
5) AD
HMs: Russ, Kawhi

OPOY:
1) Curry
2) Lebron
3) CP3

DPOY:
1) Draymond
2) Kawhi
3) AD

Need to add an explanation for your vote to count.

[OhayoKD]

1. Lebron James

Lets begin with the elephant in the room. Lebron's very bad no good regular season...

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/2015-cleveland-cavaliers-record-with-and-without-lebron

50-19 (60-win pace) with

3-10 (19-win pace) without

where he still looks like one of the most valuable players ever in a new position on a new team with a new coach. And there's plenty of corroboration:

Spoiler:

Regular Season
Let's start with 2015. To set the table, the lebron-less cavs with kyrie and love are a bad defense and average offense if you go by net-rating(-1.73 overall, 30ish wins). This is also true in 2016(-1.7), 2017(-2.81) which adds up to -1.99 for all 3-seasons. Without any of the 3, the cavs are -14.62.

With Lebron and no kyrie or love, the Cavs are +6.79. With all 3 they're [b]+10.76[/b](PBPstats). with both and without both Lebron looks historically valuable.

But maybe this is just a matter of wonky lineups/rotations? Well, we can then look at WOWY, only including games where the Cavaliers knew they'd be playing without Lebron. In 2015 they were 3-10 without Lebron. Extending our sample the Cavs out to 2017 and the Cavs were 4-23. In games without Lebron and with Kyrie and Love, the cavs were 4-11, a 21-win pace.

With Lebron, the 2015 Cavs went 50-19(59-win). Without they went 3-10 going at a 19-win pace. With all three of Love, Kyrie, and Lebron, the Cavs were 42-5(73-win) improving from 4-11 with just kyrie and love 21-win(note that's a 3-year sample, not just 2015).

What if we forget w-l and look at the o-rating and d-rating splits:




(it's probably not a matter of rotations

Was Steph a better regular season player? Sure. For this year he does seem to have an rapm edge and he's very much a raw-signal giant himself. Lebron also had a back issue to start the season (one he received multiple injections for) and a missed a bunch of games before he and the Cavs (with the aid of more complimentary role players) went on a 67-win pace (with Lebron).

But the idea there is a big gap seems dubious to me. The Warriors showed us they were plenty good without Steph in next year's playoffs and, quite unlike Kyrie, even weaker versions of Draymond have been able to keep the Warriors afloat without Steph when they're actually trying (The Warriors had a winning record pre-butler without Steph in 2025). Even for RAPM, Steph's advantage fades over longer time frames (there are sourced sets where 15-17 Lebron has the advantage even just looking at the regular season) and RAPM is not really a metric designed for 1-year evaluations. In terms of on/off Steph has a marginal edge and a look into the rotations for 15-17 sees him being significantly more tied to Draymond than Lebron is with any of his co-stars

Ultimately an argument for Steph as this massively better rs player just doesn't really work with cold winning. It's an argument that hinges on a specific interpretation of "production", one that consistently fails to line-up with cold reality when the best player of the last 50 years is involved:

Spoiler:

A case example. Awhile ago, I saw a pretty bad Article on BBall index.com. Now, I do really enjoy the site and like what it stands for, and to be clear, this WAS NOT WRITTEN BY TIM (also known as Cranjis Mcbasketball). Tims a smart guy and he’s pretty chill to talk to so he wouldnt write something like this, but the gist of the article was basically one of the other writers clickbaiting off of the olympics doing a “Lebrons not top 10 and I’ll tell you why with FACTS and STATS” and it just being a guy pulling out the LEBRON metric…

But it actually is relevant to this, because Lebron represents probably the clearest example (That I know of) of a high profile player that represents a bias. While I don’t want to go on a 10 page tangent defending Lebrons honor from LEBRON on a spreadsheet in Capslock, what I’ll say is that, especially on the defensive end, for pretty much his entire post Miami career (at the very least),any available “Box Score” component for an all in one of Lebron’s data severely undershoots him defensively. The 2 exceptions, 2018 and 2022, are the only years where his actual adjusted defensive impact data wasn’t good (according to RAPM). This is the case for LEBRON, DPM, and Mine (I’ll release the overall numbers, I can give the priors to anyone who asks but this is a first draft still so need to do some tuning) etc. . On a deeper level though, despite his great box scores, what you end up seeing fairly consistently is the more you weight box scores, the less impressive his All-in-One data can be. This doesn’t mean “Hey maybe his impact data overrates him” because that’s really not how it works if it’s this consistent for long periods of time for a high production player, it means Lebron is better than his box score production indicates. To be clear, Lebron’s career age adjusted impact data is by far the greatest in history, and if you only get playoff RAPM (there are caveats to doing it that way beyond the scope of this post), he’s basically a lone dot at the top even without adjusting for age, and that’s with him being in LeCoast mode in the Regular Season since 2014. All in one data ironically shrouds the case here, but for his Career Lebron is pretty much the Undisputed king in the realm of impact data (Although obviously now he’s no longer undisputed #1 there). I’m sure there are other examples (I feel KG would be another guy?)

Made-up numbers are fun, but ultimately the case that Steph's impact on winning was dramatically higher is a theoretical one, and theory just doesn't matter when it's consistently contradicted by the phenomenon you're trying to force it on. Steph Curry isn't operating from a significant advantage in the rs beyond sheer availablity. And Lebron missing games really doesn't matter much(at least not for championships) when his team, no thanks to what they did without him, comfortably floats in as a top seed, eviscerates their conferences #1 and takes 2 games from the league's #1 without 2 of their 3 best players.

Championships are not won in December. And when the games that really really mattered around, a gap emerged:

Spoiler:

(2015 Cavs)

Regular Season Record: 53-29, [b]Regular Season SRS: +4.08 (91st), Earned a 2 Seed
Regular Season Offensive Rating: +5.5 (24th), Regular Season Defensive Rating: +0.7 (97th

Playoff Offensive Rating: +4.2 (63rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -5.4 (44th)
Playoff SRS: +9.98 (65th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.72 (26th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.85 (32nd), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.37 (41st)

(2015 Warriors)

Regular Season Record: 67-15, [b\Regular Season SRS: +10.01 (10th)[/b], Earned the 1 Seed
Regular Season Offensive Rating: +6.0 (18th), Regular Season Defensive Rating: -4.2 (39th)
Shooting Advantage: +5.8%, Possession Advantage: -1.0 shooting possessions per game

Playoff Offensive Rating: +4.1 (64th), Playoff Defensive Rating: -7.5 (23rd)
Playoff SRS: +13.26 (22nd), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +2.08 (58th)
Shooting Advantage: +4.6%, Possession Advantage: -0.9 shooting possessions per game

It was the Cavs who missed their third best player for nearly the full postseason, and their second best player for nearly half of it. It was the Cavs who saw 3 different starters miss multiple games with injury. It was the Cavs who, by all rights should have fallen off. Instead it was the Warriors who slipped, getting taken to 6 by a banged up Memphis side and then going 2-1 down to Lebron's 2015 Cavaliers, minus their second and third banana.

Perhaps Lebron's true-shooting wasn't so impressive, but there's more to basketball than scoring efficiency:

Spoiler:

His TS does plummet by 8 points, but he also goes from scoring 25ppg to 30ppg. And whatever you think of that scoring trade-off, lebron's creation improves:


Take a peep at Kyrie Irving. While he's basically unaffected by Lebron in the regular season, his playoff shooting spikes by 9 points when Lebron is on the floor.

As it so happens, Lebron puts up goat-level playmaking-box stuff(and the best of his playoff prime (putting up an ast% of 45 to a tov% of only 11%. In the finals, against the best playoff defense of the era, Lebron puts up an ast% of 52 on a tov% of 8 in for, at least per box, one of the best playmaking series ever.

The Cavs also improve defensively, with Lebron anchoring a -5.4 playoff defense. Check who that defense performs best against:

Boston Celtics: +7.1 / -3.0
Chicago Bulls: +8.0 / -1.6
Atlanta Hawks: +10.9 / -9.1
Golden State Warriors: -1.7 / -4.3

Detroit Pistons: +14.9 / +4.4
Atlanta Hawks: +21.5 / +4.0
Toronto Raptors: +13.3 / -8.8
Golden State Warriors: +5.3 / -6.0

Overall, the 15/16 Cavs were elite playoff defenses, elevating significantly from "ok" in the regular season(bad without Lebron), and then turning all-time great against top 5 offenses(including the small-ball warriors). While they regress a bit in 2016 in the playoffs(kevin love and kyrie irving lineups consistently look worse defensively than lineups without the two), they remain elite overall and hit another gear in the last two rounds.

Also, just like with the regular-season, the Cavs (and Lebron's) playoff jump was hardly a one-off:

Spoiler:

(2016 Cavs)

Regular Season Metrics:

Regular Season Record: 57-25, Regular Season SRS: +5.45 (79th), Earned the 1 Seed
Regular Season Offensive Rating: +4.5 (40th), Regular Season Defensive Rating: -1.9 (76th)
Shooting Advantage: +2.4%, Possession Advantage: +1.5 shooting possessions per game

Playoff Metrics:

Playoff Offensive Rating: +11.43 (4th), Playoff Defensive Rating: -3.82 (68th)
Playoff SRS: +14.55 (8th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +5.84 (5th)
Shooting Advantage: +3.1%, Possession Advantage: +2.7 shooting possessions per game
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +3.42 (16th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.33 (43rd)

(2017 cavs)

Overall SRS: +9.46, Standard Deviations: +1.91, Lost in NBA Finals (Preseason 2nd)

Regular Season Record: 51-31, Regular Season SRS: +2.87 (99th), Earned the 2 Seed
Regular Season Offensive Rating: +4.8 (35th), Regular Season Defensive Rating: +1.5 (99th)

PG: Kyrie Irving, +3.4 / +2.2
SG: J.R. Smith, -2.1 / +0.5
SF: LeBron James, +7.6 / +9.8
PF: Tristan Thompson, -0.7 / -0.1
C: Kevin Love, +2.1 / +3.2

LeBron James (SF, 32): 39 MPPG, 32% OLoad, 27 / 9 / 9 / 2 on +6.7%
Kyrie Irving (PG, 24): 37 MPPG, 31% OLoad, 26 / 3 / 6 / 2 on +2.8%
Kevin Love (C, 28): 33 MPPG, 25% OLoad, 20 / 12 / 2 / 1 on +2.1%
J.R. Smith (SG, 31): 30 MPPG, 14% OLoad, 9 / 3 / 2 / 1 on -6.8%
Tristan Thompson (PF, 25): 31 MPPG, 11% OLoad, 8 / 10 / 1 / 2 on +4.2%

Scoring/100: Kyrie Irving (35.9 / +2.8%), LeBron James (34.9 / +6.7%), Kevin Love (30.2 / +2.1%)
Assists/100: LeBron James (11.5), Kyrie Irving (8.3), Kevin Love (3.1)

Heliocentrism: 50.0% (7th of 83 teams) - LeBron
Wingmen: 39.6% (34th) - Irving & Love
Depth: 10.4% (74th)

Playoff Offensive Rating: +13.17 (2nd), Playoff Defensive Rating: +0.01 (95th)
Playoff SRS: +13.74 (18th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +6.59 (2nd)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +3.29 (19th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -1.67 (61st)

Playoffs
For 2015-2017, the Cavs without lebron and with kyrie and love go from -1.99 to -5.05. the Cavs with none of the three go from -14.62 to -11.62. Frankly i'm not inclined to rely on these samples(a combined 280 minutes is covered here), and would recommend using the larger regular season stuff as an "off", regardless, whatever happens with the lebron-less teams, the lineups with lebron improve, The +6.79 no kyrie/love lineups from the regular season improve to +8.47(648 minutes) and the lebron and kyrie and love lineups improve from 10.76 to +14.50.

Lebron is just a better player, especially in the games that matter the most. While it wasn't as pretty as many of his other years, Lebron was still the league's most valuable player, and came far closer than he had any right to being it's most successful. That's seems like a POY to me.

2. Steph Curry

Strong argument as the league's best regular season player and while he dropped off in the playoffs, no one really took advantage besides Lebron.

3. James Harden Chris Paul

RAPM darling and had himself an excellent series against the defending champs. Open to moving him up but unlike with say, Magic in 1989, CP3's knees failing him is not really one-off and he struggled pretty badly vs the Rockets in general.


4. Chris Paul James Harden

I don't think his MVP race with Steph is really the toss up many potrayed it at the time but he was a top 3 or 4 guy in the regular season, mantained his production in the playoffs, and had a good series against the league's best defense. Am open to moving him down.

Switching my order based on some of the points LA Bird brings up here (emphasis mine):

Spoiler:

Paul vs Harden comes down to the hamstring injury really. Paul anchored the best regular season offense, had the highest raw on/off in the league (+21.9 vs Bron's +17.3 and Curry's +16.3 without garbage minutes), and led the Clippers to a +8.7 net without Griffin for the year. If not for the injury, the debate for him is with Curry for 2 not Harden for 3. Playoffs are still important though so let's take a closer look. Round 1: Clippers beat the defending champs Spurs who were peaking heading into the postseason (+13.5 net in last 25 games) while the Rockets faced the imploding Rondo Mavs. Paul averaged 23/5/8 on 63% TS in the best series win of his career and capped it off with a last second G7 winner over Duncan. Round 2: Clippers were on the verge of a series victory when Josh Smith and Corey Brewer randomly mounted an improbable comeback completely without Harden. For the game, the Rockets were -21 with Harden and +33 with him on the bench. Are we supposed to reward Harden for his team going on a lucky run without him? Yeah, Paul missed 2 games which might have cost them the series but Curry missed 6 playoffs games in both 2016 and 2018 and the only difference is his team managed to survive without him while Paul's didn't.

5. Westbrook

Open to arguments for Kawhi but the combination of leading the Thunder to 45-wins with Durant missing almost all of the season, and what we saw him do the prior playoffs and the following regular season makes it hard for me to rate Kawhi as better at this point. An impressive postseason might have catapulted Leonard anyway but he playing pretty meh in a 1st round exit isn't going to do it.

[Elpolo_14]

For My Voting would be :
( All the on/off data will not included low leverage possession like blowout/Garbage time )
All the number I use can be found in Databallr + NBA RAPM + Basketball Reference + I also will judge by my knowledge of the player ability by watching game

Player of the Years
1. Lebron James - One of his down year But I still have him as the best player in the world. In regular season the Cavs without Bron are -4.5 Net rating and they're +11.1 Nets when he one the floor ( A gap of +15.6 nets ) not to mention when lebron was on the floor without his best playoff in Klove and Kyrie the Cavs were a +18.9 nets in the regular season . Lebron lead the Cavs to a TOP 3 offense in the league only behind GSW / LAC with an offensive team of +5.5 rORTG ( even with not playing he full season ) when lebron was initiating the offense in the court the Cavs offensively get better by +11.8 offense rating. In the Playoffs lebron was not really efficient but it can be attributed to missing 3rd option in Klove for most playoff and Kyrie in the final ( also kyrie didn't play much in ECF like half the series and being bad while playing ). Lebron face average defense in playoffs of -2.5rDRTG and on the floor he still able to lead a +4.3rORTG adj. ( 106.5 rawORTG ) In the playoffs against these defense. Lebron defense in regular season was worse than before to be honest but by advance metric his on/off defense still make additional jump for his team ( By defense rating I used for DPOY list lebron RS is 104.5 rDRTG ( +3.7 better than off ) / 53.1 D-TS% ( +0.7 better than off ) / 14.9 D-TS% ( +1.1 better than off ) ) but his defense intensity and ability were there when the playoff started. Lebron scoring was down but his playmaking was still on an all time high level with his ability to collapse the defense around him and create opportunities for other. Lebron average opponent face in PS are +4.7 net rating ( he face the 2 toughest opponent while missing his full roster like in ECF and Final ). Bron RAPM 1st in the league with 6.8

2. Chris Paul - one of his best year on the clippers with the lob ability and fast offense. He lead the LAC to the second best Net rating in the league and the best offense in the league with +6.8rORTG. The LAC without CP3 are -11.5 Nets and they're +12.6 nets when he play ( +24.1 swing would be biggest difference on/off this year )this is one of his history floor offensive engine he able to make the difference of +22.1 offensive rating when he play ( almost as much as Curry + Bron combine ). CP3 without his lob thread as Blake and 3§D guy on JJ still able to be a positive for his team in general like +5.3 net. CP3 even being injured before entering the 2nd round able to initiate a +6.8rORTG adj. On the floor ( 108.7 Raw ORTG ) Against average defense of -2.9rDRTG also average opponent of +5.0 Nets ( only 2 round tho ). he able to beat the defending Champions Spurs in the first round and he able to perform even against Great personnel. CP3 defense as POA defender and passing lane traits make him very valuable in this aspect combine with his ability to generate offense for his team by playmaking/ passing with the PNR with Blake/D-Jordan was almost unstoppable. He one of the best this year/ could be the best if he didn't get injured so quickly in the PS run. CP3 RAPM 2nd in the league with 6.3 RAPM


3. Curry - his accessioning to the star this year he lead the GSW to a 67 win team best in the league. GSW without curry are +3.3Net rating ( a good team ) and they're +16.4 Net with him on the floor ( insanely elite team the gap is +13.1 Net ) also when curry was on the floor without his best shooter as Klay and defender on Draymond the GSW was still +13.8. Curry ability on offense make the GSW the 2nd best offense just behind LAC with +6.0rORTG and with Stephen curry on the court the GSW are +12.5 on offense. In playoffs curry was able to translate his offensive ability but the lack of real personnel and performing against injured team ( Jrue injury in 1st round/ Mike Conley broke his face for half the series + Tony Allen hamstring injury ( G6 )in 2rd round/ Pat bev being Injured even before the playoff for Houston/the Cavs being destroy by injury )hold him back for me. Curry face average of -1.0rDRTG with most of his Defensive personnel gone or injured but on the floor he only lead a +2.7rORTG adj ( 106.4 Raw ORTG ) Against these kind of defense. Curry defense in playoffs is just average not much to bring on the discussion. Curry offensive was all time great with his offball movement and shooting ( he still able to bring the ball up )this PS run but due to outside factor on opposite team by injury his offense don't look so insane while providing context. Curry average opponent face in PS are +3.1Net rating ( would be lower considering injury ). Curry RAPM 3rd in the league with 6.2 RAPM

4. Harden - actually great year for him able to make an OK rocket roster to a 56 win team with 7th best rating in the league but not that great as offense general by his usual standard ( not top 10 offense in the league with +1.4rORTG ). The rocket without harden are still a good team with +3.6 net and they are 6.3 net with him ( a gap of +2.7 net ). The rocket are mediocre in offense without harden because harden is responsible for a +11.1 difference on offense rating when he play ( -6.4 off vs +4.7 on ). His weakness was defense this year he was a huge negative on that end even with great surrounding cast around him but his Half Court offense can make up for that to some extent. He able to perform in the playoffs ( injured CP3 tho ) but eventually loses to GSW. Harden face average defense on PS of -1.3rDRTG ( average opponent of 6.7 net in 3 round ) on court he able to lead a +4.7rORTG adj ( 108.2 Raw ORTG ) In these playoff. Harden RAPM is 7th with +5.3 RAPM

5. AD - able to be really impactful even without Jrue for most of the season he was a great scoring big whle being a versatile defender with ability to roam / help / switch / Prerimeter and interior . Didn't lead the team to a great record " 45 win". His impact on the court is +5.6 net and without him they're -6.9net ( very bad team with the swing of +12.5 ). Both offense and Defense get better with AD on the floor. His PS run his very short due to getting swept by GSW in first round ( +10.2net with -4.3rDRTG )but he did perform on both scorer and as defender. AD RAPM 15th with 3.5 RAPM

OPOY ( detail of offense are in POY list )
1. Curry - I do think curry is the best offensive ceiling here. With how he upgrade a good offense to an elite one

2. Bron - He can lift up the offense with great cast but he also can be an all time offensive engine when his 2 best player is on the bench

3. CP3 - with the right system he able to have historical floor offense. But sometimes without his keys piece the offense tend to drop

DPOY
1. Draymond - one of the most versatile and smart defender lead the best defensive team. When Draymond on the floor the GSW have 98.3rDRTG ( 4.5 better than when he off ) / keep opponent efficiency of 50.0D-TS% ( 1.7 better than off the floor ) / make opponent TOV by defense 17.1 D-TOV% ( 1.0 better than off the floor ). In addition Draymond also lead the best defense in the Playoffs that why he ranked above the two below because playoff defense

2. AD - also one of the best versatile defender with great interior skills. Great sole defensive carrier for a bad team. Pelican defense when AD on the floor 105.2 rDRTG ( 5 better than off )/ 52.6D-TS% ( 1.5 better than off ) / 14.0 D-TOV ( 2.1 better than off ). He might have the best impact between them but his overall team was the worse on defense as 22th in the league

3. Kawhi - the best on ball and wing defender of this year. His ability to press the ball handler is unmatched. He lead the 2nd best defense in the league. When kawhi on the floor 99.3rDRTG ( 3.8 better than off ) / 50.8 D-TS% ( 1.7 better than off ) / 15.4 D-TOV ( 0.1 better than off )