2025 Draft Class Strength?

[FarBeyondDriven]

Now that the dust has settled and the draft is around the corner, let's get people on record. Asking for how this class will be viewed 5 years from now.

Elite, Great, Good, Average, Weak, Very Weak?

I personally think it's weak, worst since 2015. I'll try to pull from other threads like last year since not everyone will reply.

Results

Elite

Great
JMAC3
CptCrunch
tmorgan
brackdan70

Good
76ciology
The-Power
Chokic

Average
Babyjax13
EMG518
clyde21
ReggiesKnicks
BigGargamel
FarBeyondDriven

Weak

Very Weak

[EMG518]

Worst since 2015, you're smoking something. It's better than last year.

I would say it ends up between Avg and Good, closer to Avg.

[babyjax13]

I think it is a bit better than 2016 pre-draft, probably most comparable to 2019. Clear #1 that is above-average relative to most #1 picks pre-draft, a solid #2 (probably average?) and some interesting players in the lottery. It obviously lacks for depth because of NIL, so I am going to go that it is "average". I think pre-draft:

Zion >= Flagg
Ja = Harper
Barrett = Ace
Hunter < Edgecomb
Garland = Johnson
Culver < Kneuppel
White < Fears
Hachimura < Maluach
Reddish = Jakucionis

I think this draft is deeper with talent through the first 25 or so picks, but it really drops hard after that.

[tmorgan]

Average, but unusually distributed. Certainly better than last year.

Strong #1, average #2, weak for about 3-7, then back to average 8-13, then strong for 14-30, then tapers off back to weak in the early to mid second round.

So, a big star 1st and reasonable value 2nd, no other prospects I like for their spots for quite a while, but considerable depth through 25 or 30, but not enough decent guys after that to make an interesting second round.

Seems average overall. Not a good year to pick 3-7 or in the second round, but more than usual number guys that could be good if you are patient.

I guess that’s three ways to say the same thing. Sorry, tired.

[The-Power]

I think the top 25 are looking quite good. Very good top 2 but the lottery isn't as great as I thought initially and does not look comparable to the best drafts in recent years but still above average IMO. Later depth seems pretty poor due to NIL money, though. All in all, above average seems about right.

That said, a draft class can be good coming in and still not be considered good down the road. It takes just a couple players not working out, for a host of reasons, to fundamentally shape the outcome. The same is true the other way around. Thus, assessing the strength of the draft class at the time of the draft is not the same as predicting with certainty how it will pan out (even though I'm sure this thread is intended to create ‘gotcha’ moments down the road).

[The-Power]

a solid #2 (probably average?)

That's actually an interesting question to ask: where does Harper rank among 2nd best prospects in recent years?

Below are the players picked 2nd over the past 10 years:

2015 D'Angelo Russell
2016 Brandon Ingram
2017 Lonzo Ball
2018 Marvin Bagley III
2019 Ja Morant
2020 James Wiseman
2021 Jalen Green
2022 Chet Holmgren
2023 Scoot Henderson
2024 Alex Sarr

Now, that doesn't mean that our own big boards looked the same and thus the evaluation changes but it gives us an idea of what a 2nd pick looks like. Where does he rank among those? I haven't thought about it too hard yet but for me personally it would definitely be above average and probably close to the top.

That said, if I looked at my own big boards to see who I considered to be the 2nd best prospect, it would of course look a bit different (e.g., JJJ ahead of Bagley in 2018, and I'd have JJJ ahead of Harper). I'm still confident that he'd come in as above average.

[JRoy]

Scoot was picked 3rd.

[The-Power]

Scoot was picked 3rd.

Indeed you are right. That's what you get for relying on ChatGPT even for simple tasks.

[76ciology]

This draft class reminds me a lot of the 2022 NBA Draft. There’s one clear alpha.. Cooper this year, like Chet back then. The second pick feels solid but not overly exciting, Harper drawing parallels to Banchero. Then you have a questionable third option.. Ace this year, similar to Jabari in 2022.

You could also compare Keegan Murray to Tre Johnson, both offensively skilled with concerns on the defensive end. Beyond that, it’s a deep class filled with solid two-way players and potential gems, just like 2022 had with Jalen Williams, Dyson Daniels, Mark Williams (malauch?), and others. This class has similar upside with names like VJ, Carter Bryant, Flemming, Coward, and more.

In terms of overall strength, I’d say it’s a good class, maybe not top-heavy, but deep and full of good players that can contribute on winning teams.

[clyde21]

It's better than last year's so it can't be the worst since 2015, but pretty meh class overall, well below 2018 and 2021 who are still the standard the last decade or so

[tester551]

Average, but unusually distributed. Certainly better than last year.

Strong #1, average #2, weak for about 3-7, then back to average 8-13, then strong for 14-30, then tapers off back to weak in the early to mid second round.

So, a big star 1st and reasonable value 2nd, no other prospects I like for their spots for quite a while, but considerable depth through 25 or 30, but not enough decent guys after that to make an interesting second round.

Seems average overall. Not a good year to pick 3-7 or in the second round, but more than usual number guys that could be good if you are patient.

I guess that’s three ways to say the same thing. Sorry, tired.

I agree here. It really depends on where you are picking.
I really like the quality of the depth in the 10-30 range

[ReggiesKnicks]

Strong #1 and #2 are going to do a lot of heavy lifting. Below average rest of the lottery. A lot of intrigue rounding out the Top 40 than many years.

[ReggiesKnicks]

This draft class reminds me a lot of the 2022 NBA Draft. There’s one clear alpha.. Cooper this year, like Chet back then. The second pick feels solid but not overly exciting, Harper drawing parallels to Banchero. Then you have a questionable third option.. Ace this year, similar to Jabari in 2022.

I don't see the comparison as strong or good, especially when you consider the difference between Jabari Smith Jr and Ace as prospects.

[JMAC3]

Class is significantly better than last year.

This is a tough exercise because people use hindsight far too often, for example 2023 plenty of people on this board had the Thompson Twins outside of the top 10 as prospects and they went 4th and 5th. Anthony Black went 6th, which I am not sure he goes all that high this class and Noa Essengue is a better prospect than Bilal- who played half the year in French2 League.

2022 had 4 sophomores drafted top 10, Tre Johnson and Edgecombe are better prospects than Ivey and Mathurin.

2020 class was way worse, Patrick Williams would be like Carter Bryant going 4th. Okoro is worse than VJ as prospect. Killian Hayes and Obi Toppin going top 8, they might not go lottery in this draft.

2019 class had no depth, most of the guys who went outside the lottery would be 2nd round grades in this draft class.

2015 and 2016 top 10s were terrible.

I have this as a top 3 class of the last 15 drafts.

[JMAC3]

This class is apparently super underrated after reading this thread, for 1 it is super young.
Good chance 5 18yr olds are drafted in the top 10, good chance zero 20 yr+ olds are in top 10.

 
Looking back at previous classes it is very easy to see how guys like Raynauld, Traore, Clayton Jr, Egor, Sorber.. would all have legit cases as top 10 picks, good chance none of these guys even go lottery in this class.

Honestly the only weak spot in this draft is maybe 4th overall because it lacks a really strong star swing at that spot (but that is even rare) , but top 3 are elite compared to any class. Hard to find draft classes where Edgecombe, Fears, Maluach, Tre Johnson and Carter Bryant are top 10 picks.

[CptCrunch]

This is one of the strongest classes in recent memory.

There are many league guard prospects in this class. Their hit rates are extremely high in the NBA if you define outcome as NBA all-star first options on a NBA team.

Harper, VJ, Tre, Fears, Jaku, Traore, Jase have all lead guard potential.

These kids are all freshman putting up amazing counting stats in P5 conferences. Basically a guarantee that at least 1/3 of them will be all-star, rookie max type players in 3 years.

Then we have Coop whom most people consider to be one of the best prospect of all times.

[EMG518]

I think some of you are getting pulled away from the initial exercise.

How is this draft going to be viewed 5 years from now, not how does it compare at the time of the draft to other drafts. So it should take into consideration your projections from these players, what they look like 5 years from now and how does it compare to how past drafts ended up.

We have had plenty of drafts we went into thinking we're weak and turned out good and vice versa.

[JMAC3]

I think some of you are getting pulled away from the initial exercise.

How is this draft going to be viewed 5 years from now, not how does it compare at the time of the draft to other drafts. So it should take into consideration your projections from these players, what they look like 5 years from now and how does it compare to how past drafts ended up.

We have had plenty of drafts we went into thinking we're weak and turned out good and vice versa.

If we view the draft class as strong today, why would we have a different opinion on how the class will be viewed in 5 years? Shouldn't those be the same thing at this point? If anything giving the class 5 years instead of 2-3 should make it even stronger considering this class is so young which will give them even more time to fully develop.

Also, the OP specifically compared it to a previous class, so that is probably causing some of the confusion if we are all missing the point of the exercise.

[EMG518]

I think some of you are getting pulled away from the initial exercise.

How is this draft going to be viewed 5 years from now, not how does it compare at the time of the draft to other drafts. So it should take into consideration your projections from these players, what they look like 5 years from now and how does it compare to how past drafts ended up.

We have had plenty of drafts we went into thinking we're weak and turned out good and vice versa.

If we view the draft class as strong today, why would we have a different opinion on how the class will be viewed in 5 years? Shouldn't those be the same thing at this point? If anything giving the class 5 years instead of 2-3 should make it even stronger considering this class is so young which will give them even more time to fully develop.

Also, the OP specifically compared it to a previous class, so that is probably causing some of the confusion if we are all missing the point of the exercise.

Giving a class time, whether its 2-3 years, or 5 years, only allows for us to see how things play out. It doesn't automatically make it stronger because players are young and have time to develop. The development doesn't always go as planned, players under achieve their projections and there is more risk with a young player development wise.

If you're just going to go with the consensus and what is already projected, no point to post. This draft has a real #1 compared to this other draft, etc etc. We all already know what the consensus is and who is projected to go where and how they are viewed.

What do you think though this draft looks like 5 years from now compared to how other drafts turned out. Other drafts didn't have x and y in the top 5 but they wound up being in the draft later and drafts turned out good.

If you just are going chalk, everyone turns out how they are projected and is picked where they should that's fine as well. 5 years from now the draft is exactly what it was expected today and all the players turned out as expected so we can already know how this draft looks compared to other drafts aster 5 years.

[JMAC3]

Yeah still not making sense to me, maybe I am the only one though.