2025 NBA Draft (2)

[Mik317]

Ace is actually a good finsisher....when he gets there lol. VJ hopefully poor finishing is due to normal youth big athletes **** of overestimating his jump and either going too early or too late....

[Arsenal]

I think the D-Lo comparison is a good example of why I struggle to get behind a Tre Johnson pick at 3. D-Lo beats Tre on pretty much every metric across the board. Better 3P%, TS%, FTr, stock rate, BPM, and almost 2x the assist rate. Maybe Tre is a harder worker and his improvement curve is way better than D-Lo but as prospects the comparison isn’t very flattering for Tre.

D'Lo is also a turrible defender despite his length. Thus far it's the same for Tre, who might be the worst defensive player in the entire lottery.

[Arsenal]

Dylan Harper working out for multiple teams! Is his stock falling???

[Jailblazers7]

Ace is actually a good finsisher....when he gets there lol. VJ hopefully poor finishing is due to normal youth big athletes **** of overestimating his jump and either going too early or too late....

Just watching his tape I think the latter is a real factor. He definitely has a habit of jumping without a good plan and assuming that he can figure it out in the air.

The more I watch and listen the more convinced I am that we will take VJ or Harper, whichever is available. I’m not totally convinced that SA doesn’t take VJ at 2.

[Negrodamus]

Tre and McCain have some similarities in their numbers. Both increase their FTr as they get into more difficult opponents. Top 50 quality games, Tre: 29.5 FTr, McCain 28.3 FTr.

McCain really took off against better opponents across the board though, while Tre largely stayed the same. McCain had jumps in 2FG%, FT%, DBPM. I really like prospects that lock in when it's crunch time. McCain certainly did so.

Also consider the difference in defensive attention faced by a number one option, where a primary defender is locked onto you at all times, with a help defense or zone scheme constantly ready to collapse.

One thing that hurts me is that Tre averaged 43.5% 2FG against top 50 opponents while Jared with his shorter stature and shorter wingspan averaged 59% from 2 against top 50 opponents (52% against everyone). I get the whole difference between team quality, but that's a pretty stark difference. I still deeply value guys who can get a basket at the rim at an efficient level.

[Arsenal]

Tre and McCain have some similarities in their numbers. Both increase their FTr as they get into more difficult opponents. Top 50 quality games, Tre: 29.5 FTr, McCain 28.3 FTr.

McCain really took off against better opponents across the board though, while Tre largely stayed the same. McCain had jumps in 2FG%, FT%, DBPM. I really like prospects that lock in when it's crunch time. McCain certainly did so.

Also consider the difference in defensive attention faced by a number one option, where a primary defender is locked onto you at all times, with a help defense or zone scheme constantly ready to collapse.

One thing that hurts me is that Tre averaged 43.5% 2FG against top 50 opponents while Jared with his shorter stature and shorter wingspan averaged 59% from 2 against top 50 opponents (52% against everyone). I get the whole difference between team quality, but that's a pretty stark difference. I still deeply value guys who can get a basket at the rim at an efficient level.

Another top prospect named "Airous" had a strong 2PT percentage, primarily on midrange jumpers, since his rim frequency was low. You should check him out!

[M2J]

Very insightful IMO from the pod. Teams are doing dumb things in my opinion in terms of scouting. Even hearing Seth yesterday on that PHLy pod stumble through Kyle's question on why Dylan is getting a pass vs Ace on Rutgers season.... Now I trust Morey more than most to do some due diligence, but all I've heard from NBA players around him and Rutgers people around him is that Ace works hard and sacrificed for the team in many ways and was coachable. Seth took one joking question where they were all joking along with each other from an 18 year old millionaire and took it maybe too far in saying he's not handing the process well. These kids need to be developed on the court and allowed to mature as well or the league needs to go the NFL route and make them wait 3 years, because the organization needs to draft the best players, and it's harder to get that right in the NBA target than the NFL where second round picks get a fair chance to actually play and develop.

Watch on YouTube

[mksp]

Ace is actually a good finsisher....when he gets there lol. VJ hopefully poor finishing is due to normal youth big athletes **** of overestimating his jump and either going too early or too late....

It's a little concerning for sure.

I don't have numbers to back this up, but something I loved about Maxey coming out was he seemed like he had amazing touch around the rim and was a creative finisher even at his size.

[Negrodamus]

Also consider the difference in defensive attention faced by a number one option, where a primary defender is locked onto you at all times, with a help defense or zone scheme constantly ready to collapse.

One thing that hurts me is that Tre averaged 43.5% 2FG against top 50 opponents while Jared with his shorter stature and shorter wingspan averaged 59% from 2 against top 50 opponents (52% against everyone). I get the whole difference between team quality, but that's a pretty stark difference. I still deeply value guys who can get a basket at the rim at an efficient level.

Another top prospect named "Airous" had a strong 2PT percentage, primarily on midrange jumpers, since his rim frequency was low. You should check him out!

Yea, that's good. But it should goes with a bunch of other stats that Ace is short of.

[Negrodamus]

Ace is actually a good finsisher....when he gets there lol. VJ hopefully poor finishing is due to normal youth big athletes **** of overestimating his jump and either going too early or too late....

Kyle Neubeck had a good breakdown of all of Ace's finishes at the basket. It becomes a small sample size when you remove fast break baskets.

[Stanford]

I see video of front office people, including the highest executives, scouting prospects live all the time. There's probably video of Morey watching every top prospect in this draft in high school.

[stormi]

He reminds me of a young D’Angelo Russell, similar 6’10” wingspan, high-level passing, heavy perimeter scorer but D’Lo was given the opportunity of playing lead guard at Ohio State. That said, I think Tre is more athletic and is more serious NBA player given his work ethic and demeanor. That’s why I’m optimistic about his development.

Dawg what?

This is why I retired from this thread.

[stormi]

Your favorite team having a top five pick is probably the best thing ever because the consensus boards & mocks will sell every player in that range as elite.

[Black Mage]

I just don't see the kind of explosive leaping you'd expect from a guy with a 37.5 vert. With that vert and his wingspan and in a practice session where guys are supposed to look unstoppable; he looked meh to me. I've been saying his hips are stiffer than you think in a game setting and this video also showed that.

In theory, VJ Edgecombe and Ace Bailey should be unstoppable at the rim in the half court as well. But scoring and finishing in the paint is about more than just length and athleticism, you also need touch, craft, and the ability to read the defense. Things like pump fakes, pivots, step-throughs, and spins all matter. Guys like Jase Richardson, Kneuppel, and Kasparas are finishing over 60% at the rim despite being below-the-rim players without elite length.

I see Tre using his length and athleticism in actions both in HS and College, intercepting passes, finishing breakaway dunks, and shooting over defenders. He doesn’t strike me as having that “fake vertical” like JJ Redick measured at the combine. In my view, he doesn’t like physical defense, that’s my profile of him as a shooter. But you can see this length and athleticism more in open court and perimeter than in the paint.

He reminds me of a young D’Angelo Russell, similar 6’10” wingspan, high-level passing, heavy perimeter scorer but D’Lo was given the opportunity of playing lead guard at Ohio State. That said, I think Tre is more athletic and is more serious NBA player given his work ethic and demeanor. That’s why I’m optimistic about his development.

I've seen VJ launch himself at the rim and float through the air exactly as you'd expect someone with a 38-40 inch vert.

Tre has very little burst off one or two feet at the rim and he's often settling for the types of shots that we see from Maxey or McCain but their excuse for those shots are that they are SHORT.

What's Tre's excuse for barely getting above the rim while being an inch taller than VJ with nearly 3 inch longer wingspan a 2 inch higher standing vertical and only a 1 inch shorter max vertical?

I don't know what vids you're watching, but Tre wasn't finishing break-a-ways with dunks or intercepting passes (under a steal per game at Texas).

https://www.espn.co.uk/video/clip?id=42860067

College hoop is 10 feet, Tre has an 8'5" standing reach. He just needs to jump 19" to get his fingertips to the rim With a 37 vert he should have another 17 inches to spare. In that breakaway dunk he BARELY scrapes above the rim. Tre almost always ends up well below the rim.

THIS is what a real 38 inch vertical in game action looks like.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DB-to8lRHPb/

[Black Mage]

Tre and McCain have some similarities in their numbers. Both increase their FTr as they get into more difficult opponents. Top 50 quality games, Tre: 29.5 FTr, McCain 28.3 FTr.

McCain really took off against better opponents across the board though, while Tre largely stayed the same. McCain had jumps in 2FG%, FT%, DBPM. I really like prospects that lock in when it's crunch time. McCain certainly did so.

Also consider the difference in defensive attention faced by a number one option, where a primary defender is locked onto you at all times, with a help defense or zone scheme constantly ready to collapse.

One thing that hurts me is that Tre averaged 43.5% 2FG against top 50 opponents while Jared with his shorter stature and shorter wingspan averaged 59% from 2 against top 50 opponents (52% against everyone). I get the whole difference between team quality, but that's a pretty stark difference. I still deeply value guys who can get a basket at the rim at an efficient level.

Hey Negro, where are you getting those stats from, would love to play around with that site.

[Negrodamus]

Also consider the difference in defensive attention faced by a number one option, where a primary defender is locked onto you at all times, with a help defense or zone scheme constantly ready to collapse.

One thing that hurts me is that Tre averaged 43.5% 2FG against top 50 opponents while Jared with his shorter stature and shorter wingspan averaged 59% from 2 against top 50 opponents (52% against everyone). I get the whole difference between team quality, but that's a pretty stark difference. I still deeply value guys who can get a basket at the rim at an efficient level.

Hey Negro, where are you getting those stats from, would love to play around with that site.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2024&p=Jared%20McCain&t=Duke
https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2025&p=Ace%20Bailey&t=Rutgers

[phifans]

If you ask me Tre Johnson does look like an one dimension shooter who don't pass , attack the rim and has no intention to defense. He's a hard pass for me.

[Black Mage]

Ace is actually a good finsisher....when he gets there lol. VJ hopefully poor finishing is due to normal youth big athletes **** of overestimating his jump and either going too early or too late....

It's a little concerning for sure.

I don't have numbers to back this up, but something I loved about Maxey coming out was he seemed like he had amazing touch around the rim and was a creative finisher even at his size.

Guys like Maxey and Wade displayed natural feel for those soft shots at the rim. Harper's got that feel I think. Kon also was surprisingly decent, but his were a bit farther from the rim as he danced and pivoted in the paint to clear some space to toss it up. Think Fears is decent, but not really checking into him much.

[Iverson Armband]

I just don't see the kind of explosive leaping you'd expect from a guy with a 37.5 vert. With that vert and his wingspan and in a practice session where guys are supposed to look unstoppable; he looked meh to me. I've been saying his hips are stiffer than you think in a game setting and this video also showed that.

In theory, VJ Edgecombe and Ace Bailey should be unstoppable at the rim in the half court as well. But scoring and finishing in the paint is about more than just length and athleticism, you also need touch, craft, and the ability to read the defense. Things like pump fakes, pivots, step-throughs, and spins all matter. Guys like Jase Richardson, Kneuppel, and Kasparas are finishing over 60% at the rim despite being below-the-rim players without elite length.

I see Tre using his length and athleticism in actions both in HS and College, intercepting passes, finishing breakaway dunks, and shooting over defenders. He doesn’t strike me as having that “fake vertical” like JJ Redick measured at the combine. In my view, he doesn’t like physical defense, that’s my profile of him as a shooter. But you can see this length and athleticism more in open court and perimeter than in the paint.

He reminds me of a young D’Angelo Russell, similar 6’10” wingspan, high-level passing, heavy perimeter scorer but D’Lo was given the opportunity of playing lead guard at Ohio State. That said, I think Tre is more athletic and is more serious NBA player given his work ethic and demeanor. That’s why I’m optimistic about his development.

I've seen VJ launch himself at the rim and float through the air exactly as you'd expect someone with a 38-40 inch vert.

Tre has very little burst off one or two feet at the rim and he's often settling for the types of shots that we see from Maxey or McCain but their excuse for those shots are that they are SHORT.

What's Tre's excuse for barely getting above the rim while being an inch taller than VJ with nearly 3 inch longer wingspan a 2 inch higher standing vertical and only a 1 inch shorter max vertical?

I don't know what vids you're watching, but Tre wasn't finishing break-a-ways with dunks or intercepting passes (under a steal per game at Texas).

https://www.espn.co.uk/video/clip?id=42860067

College hoop is 10 feet, Tre has an 8'5" standing reach. He just needs to jump 19" to get his fingertips to the rim With a 37 vert he should have another 17 inches to spare. In that breakaway dunk he BARELY scrapes above the rim. Tre almost always ends up well below the rim.

THIS is what a real 38 inch vertical in game action looks like.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DB-to8lRHPb/

You’re trying to compare a dunk where a guy has a clear path and no contest vs a dunk where the defender beats him to the spot and VJ tries to elevate as the guy tries to block him

[Black Mage]

In theory, VJ Edgecombe and Ace Bailey should be unstoppable at the rim in the half court as well. But scoring and finishing in the paint is about more than just length and athleticism, you also need touch, craft, and the ability to read the defense. Things like pump fakes, pivots, step-throughs, and spins all matter. Guys like Jase Richardson, Kneuppel, and Kasparas are finishing over 60% at the rim despite being below-the-rim players without elite length.

I see Tre using his length and athleticism in actions both in HS and College, intercepting passes, finishing breakaway dunks, and shooting over defenders. He doesn’t strike me as having that “fake vertical” like JJ Redick measured at the combine. In my view, he doesn’t like physical defense, that’s my profile of him as a shooter. But you can see this length and athleticism more in open court and perimeter than in the paint.

He reminds me of a young D’Angelo Russell, similar 6’10” wingspan, high-level passing, heavy perimeter scorer but D’Lo was given the opportunity of playing lead guard at Ohio State. That said, I think Tre is more athletic and is more serious NBA player given his work ethic and demeanor. That’s why I’m optimistic about his development.

I've seen VJ launch himself at the rim and float through the air exactly as you'd expect someone with a 38-40 inch vert.

Tre has very little burst off one or two feet at the rim and he's often settling for the types of shots that we see from Maxey or McCain but their excuse for those shots are that they are SHORT.

What's Tre's excuse for barely getting above the rim while being an inch taller than VJ with nearly 3 inch longer wingspan a 2 inch higher standing vertical and only a 1 inch shorter max vertical?

I don't know what vids you're watching, but Tre wasn't finishing break-a-ways with dunks or intercepting passes (under a steal per game at Texas).

https://www.espn.co.uk/video/clip?id=42860067

College hoop is 10 feet, Tre has an 8'5" standing reach. He just needs to jump 19" to get his fingertips to the rim With a 37 vert he should have another 17 inches to spare. In that breakaway dunk he BARELY scrapes above the rim. Tre almost always ends up well below the rim.

THIS is what a real 38 inch vertical in game action looks like.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DB-to8lRHPb/

You’re trying to compare a dunk where a guy has a clear path and no contest vs a dunk where the defender beats him to the spot and VJ tries to elevate as the guy tries to block him

Given my point is VJ displays in-game what you'd expect from a player with a 38 inch vertical and Tre in-game and in workout sessions with no defense doesn't come close to utilizing the 37.5 vertical he posted at the combine? Yeah, I think that vid drives home my point.