2025 NBA Draft (2)

[Negrodamus]

Kind of interesting that there's two 6'5+ guys who have similarities to our two 6'2ish guards:

Kasparas is very similar to Maxey in that he had a complete dumpster fire season from 3 even though all of his stats suggest he'd be at minimum a decent long ball guy. He also is one of the most elite guys at the rim in the top ten. Draws fouls.

Meanwhile Kon and McCain were moved off ball while at Duke and were monster shooters from everywhere. The hard thing to predict is if Kon has primary on ball capability, particularly at an NBA level.

The problem with both Kon and Kasparas is that they are mid to bad athletes with weak wingspans, so the ceiling is kinda capped to an extent.

[LeonJordanJr24]

Ace is better now and has more upside than VJ...

[Black Mage]

One thing that hurts me is that Tre averaged 43.5% 2FG against top 50 opponents while Jared with his shorter stature and shorter wingspan averaged 59% from 2 against top 50 opponents (52% against everyone). I get the whole difference between team quality, but that's a pretty stark difference. I still deeply value guys who can get a basket at the rim at an efficient level.

Hey Negro, where are you getting those stats from, would love to play around with that site.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2024&p=Jared%20McCain&t=Duke
https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2025&p=Ace%20Bailey&t=Rutgers

Making sure I'm doing this right, first link is Rutgers as a team against all opponents this year. Second link is Rutgers against top 50. If I did that right, Bailey actually held his own and Harper's numbers dropped? Am I reading that right? Totally wasn't expecting that, if its right.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&tvalue=Rutgers&year=2025&start=20241101&end=20250501
https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&minGP=1&tvalue=Rutgers&year=2025&top=50&start=20241101&end=20250501

[Negrodamus]

Hey Negro, where are you getting those stats from, would love to play around with that site.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2024&p=Jared%20McCain&t=Duke
https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2025&p=Ace%20Bailey&t=Rutgers

Making sure I'm doing this right, first link is Rutgers as a team against all opponents this year. Second link is Rutgers against top 50. If I did that right, Bailey actually held his own and Harper's numbers dropped? Am I reading that right? Totally wasn't expecting that, if its right.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&tvalue=Rutgers&year=2025&start=20241101&end=20250501
https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&minGP=1&tvalue=Rutgers&year=2025&top=50&start=20241101&end=20250501

Yea, I mean it looks like he does well in comparison to Harper. I still am not really a huge fan of the numbers.

[Black Mage]

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2024&p=Jared%20McCain&t=Duke
https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2025&p=Ace%20Bailey&t=Rutgers

Making sure I'm doing this right, first link is Rutgers as a team against all opponents this year. Second link is Rutgers against top 50. If I did that right, Bailey actually held his own and Harper's numbers dropped? Am I reading that right? Totally wasn't expecting that, if its right.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&tvalue=Rutgers&year=2025&start=20241101&end=20250501
https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&minGP=1&tvalue=Rutgers&year=2025&top=50&start=20241101&end=20250501

Yea, I mean it looks like he does well in comparison to Harper. I still am not really a huge fan of the numbers.

Cool, just wanted to be sure I was doing it right. Gonna go have some fun on this site.

[M2J]

Making sure I'm doing this right, first link is Rutgers as a team against all opponents this year. Second link is Rutgers against top 50. If I did that right, Bailey actually held his own and Harper's numbers dropped? Am I reading that right? Totally wasn't expecting that, if its right.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&tvalue=Rutgers&year=2025&start=20241101&end=20250501
https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&minGP=1&tvalue=Rutgers&year=2025&top=50&start=20241101&end=20250501

Yea, I mean it looks like he does well in comparison to Harper. I still am not really a huge fan of the numbers.

Cool, just wanted to be sure I was doing it right. Gonna go have some fun on this site.

Not sure exactly if it's including games missed for Harper. But I know he missed like the Indiana game, and he got injured in the first half of the Penn State game which led to him missing North Western game and Michigan State game. Interesting that 3 of those games are some of Ace's best games as in stepping up for the team.

[76ciology]

He reminds me of a young D’Angelo Russell, similar 6’10” wingspan, high-level passing, heavy perimeter scorer but D’Lo was given the opportunity of playing lead guard at Ohio State. That said, I think Tre is more athletic and is more serious NBA player given his work ethic and demeanor. That’s why I’m optimistic about his development.

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[Black Mage]

He reminds me of a young D’Angelo Russell, similar 6’10” wingspan, high-level passing, heavy perimeter scorer but D’Lo was given the opportunity of playing lead guard at Ohio State. That said, I think Tre is more athletic and is more serious NBA player given his work ethic and demeanor. That’s why I’m optimistic about his development.

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So Ace was only 4.8% off of Tre on making big time passes? And he already plays defense? And he's taller and more athletic? SOLD!

::EDIT:: I say this in jest.

[Iverson Armband]

He reminds me of a young D’Angelo Russell, similar 6’10” wingspan, high-level passing, heavy perimeter scorer but D’Lo was given the opportunity of playing lead guard at Ohio State. That said, I think Tre is more athletic and is more serious NBA player given his work ethic and demeanor. That’s why I’m optimistic about his development.

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Keep dropping that heat big dog.

[Kolkmania]

I think the D-Lo comparison is a good example of why I struggle to get behind a Tre Johnson pick at 3. D-Lo beats Tre on pretty much every metric across the board. Better 3P%, TS%, FTr, stock rate, BPM, and almost 2x the assist rate. Maybe Tre is a harder worker and his improvement curve is way better than D-Lo but as prospects the comparison isn’t very flattering for Tre.

I just want to say that D'Angelo Russell was a really fun prospect, far better as a playmaker than Tre, but also certainly not as effective as an off ball threat. He never showed the willingness to run off screens, make quick reads/connective passer, etc. In addition, let's not forget that Russell was an All Star in his age 22 season in the NBA (Jalen Williams, who we all praise at the moment, reached that level in his age 23 season).

My perspective on Russell is that he's not good enough as a primary playmaker (not efficient enough due to poor rim attempts/free throw rate, while also not being even league average from three) and simply not effective as an off ball guy to compensate his poor defense. That limits him to a 6th man role for a team that has title aspirations. And that is a fair concern for Tre as well.

As a counterpoint, I think that Tre shows more playmaking skills than the number indicates, but even if he's not the primary guy (and I do think there's as potential Devin Booker-esque development curve possible), it's reasonable to expect that he'll thrive as a secondary/tertiary option on offense. Russell shot >40% from three at Ohio State, but I rank Tre's shooting way higher than Russell due to shot mechanics, FT% and incredible difficulty/volume of shots attempted.
His floor would be raised tremendously if he's going to improve enough defensively to be passable. The additional 1.5 inch and big wingspan will certainly help if he's able to put on some weight.

[Iverson Armband]

This is where you can’t just look at numbers when comparing players. Tre Johnson and DLO play NOTHING alike. One is being compared to Ray Allen, the other apparently James Harden (never heard that, but whatever). You couldn’t find two more totally different players than that.

[76ciology]

Kind of interesting that there's two 6'5+ guys who have similarities to our two 6'2ish guards:

Kasparas is very similar to Maxey in that he had a complete dumpster fire season from 3 even though all of his stats suggest he'd be at minimum a decent long ball guy. He also is one of the most elite guys at the rim in the top ten. Draws fouls.

Meanwhile Kon and McCain were moved off ball while at Duke and were monster shooters from everywhere. The hard thing to predict is if Kon has primary on ball capability, particularly at an NBA level.

The problem with both Kon and Kasparas is that they are mid to bad athletes with weak wingspans, so the ceiling is kinda capped to an extent.

Kasparas combines McCain’s scoring efficiency and rebounding with superior shot creation, and playmaking, surpassing what we saw from Maxey at the same stage. He also has superior positional size than both with his 6’6” height and 6’8” wingspan (similar sized to Gordan Hayward).

Kon for me is the 6’6” version of McCain.

[zaz102]

Kind of interesting that there's two 6'5+ guys who have similarities to our two 6'2ish guards:

Kasparas is very similar to Maxey in that he had a complete dumpster fire season from 3 even though all of his stats suggest he'd be at minimum a decent long ball guy. He also is one of the most elite guys at the rim in the top ten. Draws fouls.

Meanwhile Kon and McCain were moved off ball while at Duke and were monster shooters from everywhere. The hard thing to predict is if Kon has primary on ball capability, particularly at an NBA level.

The problem with both Kon and Kasparas is that they are mid to bad athletes with weak wingspans, so the ceiling is kinda capped to an extent.

I'm interested in Kasparas and Kon. In Philly alone, we've seen some players do a lot more with less athleticism and short wingspan in the past (Butler vs. Tobias, McCain vs. Fultz). I need to watch more video to see if they have the craftiness of a Butler or a McCain.

[Evil Twin]

So what’s the deal with all these old all=stars who look at Ace and see special talent that reminds them of some of the best they played with? Why can’t they comprehend the stats that so many local analysts and even fans can readily come up with, and instead depend on the eye test so much?

[Kolkmania]

Kind of interesting that there's two 6'5+ guys who have similarities to our two 6'2ish guards:

Kasparas is very similar to Maxey in that he had a complete dumpster fire season from 3 even though all of his stats suggest he'd be at minimum a decent long ball guy. He also is one of the most elite guys at the rim in the top ten. Draws fouls.

Meanwhile Kon and McCain were moved off ball while at Duke and were monster shooters from everywhere. The hard thing to predict is if Kon has primary on ball capability, particularly at an NBA level.

The problem with both Kon and Kasparas is that they are mid to bad athletes with weak wingspans, so the ceiling is kinda capped to an extent.

Kasparas combines McCain’s scoring efficiency and rebounding with superior shot creation, and playmaking, surpassing what we saw from Maxey at the same stage. He also has superior positional size than both with his 6’6” height and 6’8” wingspan (similar sized to Gordan Hayward).

Kon for me is the 6’6” version of McCain.

If Kasparas truly had the size of Gordon Hayward then it would be an entirely different discussion, but there's a full two inches between them. 6'4.75'' vs 6.6.75'' without shoes. Hayward played as a 3 or even 4 later in his career. You can also see it in the college stats, Hayward posted a ridiculous >23 DREB% for example.

[Jailblazers7]

I think the D-Lo comparison is a good example of why I struggle to get behind a Tre Johnson pick at 3. D-Lo beats Tre on pretty much every metric across the board. Better 3P%, TS%, FTr, stock rate, BPM, and almost 2x the assist rate. Maybe Tre is a harder worker and his improvement curve is way better than D-Lo but as prospects the comparison isn’t very flattering for Tre.

I just want to say that D'Angelo Russell was a really fun prospect, far better as a playmaker than Tre, but also certainly not as effective as an off ball threat. He never showed the willingness to run off screens, make quick reads/connective passer, etc. In addition, let's not forget that Russell was an All Star in his age 22 season in the NBA (Jalen Williams, who we all praise at the moment, reached that level in his age 23 season).

My perspective on Russell is that he's not good enough as a primary playmaker (not efficient enough due to poor rim attempts/free throw rate, while also not being even league average from three) and simply not effective as an off ball guy to compensate his poor defense. That limits him to a 6th man role for a team that has title aspirations. And that is a fair concern for Tre as well.

As a counterpoint, I think that Tre shows more playmaking skills than the number indicates, but even if he's not the primary guy (and I do think there's as potential Devin Booker-esque development curve possible), it's reasonable to expect that he'll thrive as a secondary/tertiary option on offense. Russell shot >40% from three at Ohio State, but I rank Tre's shooting way higher than Russell due to shot mechanics, FT% and incredible difficulty/volume of shots attempted.
His floor would be raised tremendously if he's going to improve enough defensively to be passable. The additional 1.5 inch and big wingspan will certainly help if he's able to put on some weight.

Yeah, they’re definitely different prospects so don’t want to take the comparisons too far. I just saw the comp dropped in this thread, looked at the metrics, and came away surprised how favorable D-Lo compared to Tre.

The off ball scoring and movement is a big draw for Tre - that potentially makes him a seamless fit in a lot of lineups and opens up the offensive scheme considerably. The Ray Allen comps make sense because of the movement shooting and high/quick release but I don’t think Tre can touch Ray athletically.

[Mik317]

So what’s the deal with all these old all=stars who look at Ace and see special talent that reminds them of some of the best they played with? Why can’t they comprehend the stats that so many local analysts and even fans can readily come up with, and instead depend on the eye test so much?

Michael Jordan drafted Kwame Brown

Lebron once stamped the table for Shabazz Napier.

[Stanford]

So what’s the deal with all these old all=stars who look at Ace and see special talent that reminds them of some of the best they played with? Why can’t they comprehend the stats that so many local analysts and even fans can readily come up with, and instead depend on the eye test so much?

They don't watch basketball either. They've got other **** going on.

[Negrodamus]

So what’s the deal with all these old all=stars who look at Ace and see special talent that reminds them of some of the best they played with? Why can’t they comprehend the stats that so many local analysts and even fans can readily come up with, and instead depend on the eye test so much?

They find out at the first practice when Justin Edwards doesn’t let him anywhere near the rim and he has to take awkward, contested jumpers for the entire scrimmage

[76ciology]

Kind of interesting that there's two 6'5+ guys who have similarities to our two 6'2ish guards:

Kasparas is very similar to Maxey in that he had a complete dumpster fire season from 3 even though all of his stats suggest he'd be at minimum a decent long ball guy. He also is one of the most elite guys at the rim in the top ten. Draws fouls.

Meanwhile Kon and McCain were moved off ball while at Duke and were monster shooters from everywhere. The hard thing to predict is if Kon has primary on ball capability, particularly at an NBA level.

The problem with both Kon and Kasparas is that they are mid to bad athletes with weak wingspans, so the ceiling is kinda capped to an extent.

Kasparas combines McCain’s scoring efficiency and rebounding with superior shot creation, and playmaking, surpassing what we saw from Maxey at the same stage. He also has superior positional size than both with his 6’6” height and 6’8” wingspan (similar sized to Gordan Hayward).

Kon for me is the 6’6” version of McCain.

If Kasparas truly had the size of Gordon Hayward then it would be an entirely different discussion, but there's a full two inches between them. 6'4.75'' vs 6.6.75'' without shoes. Hayward played as a 3 or even 4 later in his career. You can also see it in the college stats, Hayward posted a ridiculous >23 DREB% for example.

My mistake on the height, I overlooked the difference with and without shoes for Hayward.

Kasparas measures 6’6” with a 6’8” wingspan, while Hayward is 6’8” with the same wingspan.

That said, Kasparas still brings very good positional size for a guard.