Why Do 20+ Point Leads Keep Getting Blown?

[dirkdiggler4177]

For me, it looks more like defense does this than the 3-point shots, but it's a combo of defense, 3-pointers, and luck. Like that bounce goes half an inch the other way, and the Knicks are 2-1

[Hornet Mania]

Higher three point attempts create higher variance overall and greater opportunity for dramatic swings.

As AdamSSSlither pointed out it also has a lot to do with pace. Very few teams make an attempt to just take the air out of the ball anymore when up big, putting up shots with half the shot clock or more left. That increases the possessions available to the opponent for a comeback compared to previous eras as well.

[shi-woo]

Dumb ass modern players and stubborn coaches. It’s not just threes. Most teams are missing smart veteran point guards to calm the team down on the court and go back to running the offense instead of panic isoing or panic chucking. It’s maddening to watch as a basketball fan

This is the answer, and it's glaring at this point. Most teams have either scoring guards, or they run their offense through a forward these days, and neither of those have the CP3/Kidd/Nash level of playmaker in the half court. The ball sticks, and teams end up playing 1v1 instead of 5v5 and taking advantage of whatever they were taking advantage of throughout the game.

Celtic's are the poster child of this obviously, and we can break it down into these miscues:

1.) Run everything through two players (The Jays) who aren't the best playmakers and lacking in ball skills.
2.) Slow the pace down to try and use all that clock. Teams start playing the clock and not the opponent, and we saw that with IND last night. Which leads to:
3.) Everything turns iso as you slow it down and only run plays through a few dudes. Most teams that don't have Luka/LeBron aren't going to be good at this, and need freeflowing offense, so now they are playing a suboptimal style and not their OG gameplan. As mentioned, the game turns into a guy going 1v1 on one side, and then 5 v 5 on the other. The ISO is the most predictable play in basketball, which leads to:
4.) Playing against set defenses. One of the reason teams get these leads is they have defenses scrambling, and they abuse out of position defenders. When you slow the game down, go iso heavy through a few guys, you are allowing even a bad defensive team to also slow it down, get into position, communicate, and then play against the most predictable play in the game.
5.) Once you start playing like this, take your foot off the gas because 4 dudes are essentially iced out of the offense, it's hard to put your foot back on the gas as the other team is now emotionally more invested and probably playing harder. You get trapped into playing this horrible style of play, and everyone starts playing on edge as you feel the momentum switch, and start playing sloppy when you force trying to go back to team basketball. Pacers make like 5-6 horrific plays last night trying to speed the game back up...

The formula is as good as gold, and yes, you can add the 3pnt shot which makes it worse to do the 5 things mentioned because the slack isn't nearly as loose when teams can score 10 points in 1 minutes...

I think we are seeing the work of media propaganda, the "Kobe!" generation that grew up thinking Kobe was hitting iso middies over dudes for the game every other day, and then had that reinforced by peak LBJ during the superteam era essentially doing this but being effective because he was on stacked teams and was one of the best.

Now you have guys like Pascal Siakim and Jaylen Brown trying to do this, and it simply doesn't work.

Unless you have a Luka type of player on your team, and are used to playing this sloppy heliocentric style, you need to have a floor general on the floor to keep the offense humming, running plays, not turning the ball over, and keeping guys involved. Pacers are dangerous because Hali doesn't have that ego, and guys like Nem and Nesmith play open and get good looks. Last night they did the slow it down crap, and you saw how tight everyone got...

Teams need to have someone that is a 2nd coach on the floor, and if it's the dude who is the star, who is simply going to call his own number 10 out of 10 times, you are 100% going to fall vitim to these upsets in 2025.

[Godymas]

because the basketball is a momentum based sport. Once a team finds rhythm on offense they tend to go on runs and they essentially break the other team out of a rhythm. That's why most coaches take timeouts as soon as a run forms, they want to break the momentum.

[GrandTheftRondo]

Because it’s like what a 10 point lead was 15 years ago.

You get hot from 3 and a lead can be blasted away in minutes.

You saw it in game 1 of the Knicks Pacers. The Knicks didn’t even really have issues scoring but still blew the lead because the Pacers just went bananas from
3.

[kenwood3333]

sports betting

[Joao Saraiva]

Teams can score at super fast pace nowadays. 20 point leads don't mean a game is safe anymore. 4 shots from 3 and it's really close, and at the rate teams shoot it nowadays it's not that unlikely to happen.

It's a good lesson for people who think scoring down 10 in the 4th is not useful.

[Jailblazers7]

I think the lack of post play and the way the rules disincentivize it plays a big role. In prior eras, you could slow the game down, get a post touch, and either get an easy basket or some FTs. But modern zones/double teams and the difference in physicality allowed defending the post vs perimeter makes that style extremely difficult.

[flow]

There's a big difference between 20 pt. leads in the 2nd quarter and 20 pt. leads in the late 3rd/4th quarter.

20 point 1st half leads are overcome all the time.

.

[durden_tyler]

sports betting

Thank you for answering the one that makes sense. Not all of the time of course, since that’s be too obvious


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[bisme37]

If posters think 20 points is an insurmountable lead, players probably do too. Or they know it's not, but human nature creeps in and they take their foot off the gas a little anyway.

Meanwhile a 20 point lead is not much, especially in the 1st half of a game. Last night the Knicks cut the lead from 20 to 13 in just the last minute or two before halftime. Then a couple 3's take it from 13 to 7, then a layup and it's a 5 point game, etc etc. And then the momentum and confidence flips and you're swimming upstream wondering what happened.

[Johnny Bball]

Variance

[TheGeneral99]

A 20 point lead today is kind of the equivalent of a 10 point lead back in the late 1990s or early 2000s.

All you need is a few stops and 3-4 threes in a row and you are right back in the game.

Today you need a 30 point lead as a real cushion to prevent a comeback.

[Ice Man]

I think the lack of post play and the way the rules disincentivize it plays a big role. In prior eras, you could slow the game down, get a post touch, and either get an easy basket or some FTs. But modern zones/double teams and the difference in physicality allowed defending the post vs perimeter makes that style extremely difficult.

This is a good and accurate post.

[Loaded_Hollows]

I don’t get it either. I almost expect it to get blown now.

You must not be married.

[K N U C K L E S]

because the basketball is a momentum based sport. Once a team finds rhythm on offense they tend to go on runs and they essentially break the other team out of a rhythm. That's why most coaches take timeouts as soon as a run forms, they want to break the momentum.

An interesting experiment would be 10 games with no timeouts to see if runs last longer because they aren't stopped with a timeout.

[K N U C K L E S]

Threes, and more specifically, the 14-second shot clock after an offensive rebound.

Almost always leads to a 3.

Another interesting experiment would be to put in the old shot clock rules to see what effect it has on this. When did it start that you only get 14 seconds after an offensive rebound? 15 years ago?

[Wingy]

I think the lack of post play and the way the rules disincentivize it plays a big role. In prior eras, you could slow the game down, get a post touch, and either get an easy basket or some FTs. But modern zones/double teams and the difference in physicality allowed defending the post vs perimeter makes that style extremely difficult.

I think it’s more an utter lack of post skills. Every big growing up for a long time now has wanted to be more like Ray Allen, Steph Curry, etc and not Shaq. Heck, IIRC, Shaq always wished during his career that he could shoot 3s.

[druggas]

Dumb coaches. Team is a reflection of their coach.

[Tha Cynic]

If one team can go up by 20 points at some point, why can’t the other team also score enough to catch up? It’s just a lot easier now with random 3 point shooting.