Thunder-Pacers Among Top Mismatches In NBA Finals History, Continuing Trend of Net Rating Gaps

[RealGM Wiretap]

For the third straight season, the NBA has a Finals team with a Net Rating outside the top-10 as the Indiana Pacers ranked 12th in the category during the regular season while the Oklahoma City Thunder were first. With teams reaching the Finals outside the top-10 in Net Rating, we've also seen more significant disparities between the two teams.

The 2023 Finals between the Nuggets and Heat had the largest disparity, with Denver ranked 6th in Net Rating facing Miami, who ranked a distant 21st. The 2024 and 1999 Finals are tied for second place with 13-spot differences, while 2025 and 2018 are tied for fourth with 11-spot gaps. All four of those previous series were decided in five or fewer games.

NBA Finals Net Rating Rankings & Differences
 
2025: Thunder, 1st / Pacers, 12th (11 spot difference)
2024: Celtics, 1st / Mavericks, 14th (13 spots)
2023: Nuggets, 6th / Heat, 21st (15 spots)
2022: Warriors, 5th / Celtics, 2nd (3 spots)
2021: Bucks, 4th / Suns, 3rd (1 spot)
2020: Lakers, 5th / Heat, 7th (2 spots)
2019: Raptors, 3rd / Warriors, 2nd (1 spot)
2018: Warriors, 3rd / Cavaliers, 14th (11 spots)
2017: Warriors, 1st / Cavaliers, 7th (6 spots)
2016: Cavaliers, 4th / Warriors, 2nd (2 spots)
2015: Warriors, 1st / Cavaliers, 5th (4 spots)
2014: Spurs, 1st / Heat, 4th (3 spots)
2013: Heat, 2nd / Spurs, 4th (2 spots)
2012: Heat, 4th / Thunder, 3rd (1 spot)
2011: Mavericks, 8th / Heat, 1st (7 spots)
2010: Lakers, 7th / Celtics, 9th (2 spots)
2009: Lakers, 3rd / Magic, 4th (1 spot)
2008: Celtics, 1st / Lakers, 3rd (2 spots)
2007: Spurs, 1st / Cavaliers, 7th (6 spots)
2006: Heat, 6th / Mavericks, 3rd (3 spots)
2005: Spurs, 1st / Pistons, 6th (5 spots)
2004: Pistons, 2nd / Lakers, 7th (5 spots)
2003: Spurs, 3rd / Nets, 4th (1 spot)
2002: Lakers, 2nd / Nets, 5th (3 spots)
2001: Lakers, 8th / Sixers, 5th (3 spots)
2000: Lakers, 1st / Pacers, 6th (5 spots)
1999: Spurs, 1st / Knicks, 14th (13 spots)
1998: Bulls, 3rd / Jazz, 4th (1 spot)
1997: Bulls, 1st / Jazz, 2nd (1 spot)
1996: Bulls, 1st / Sonics, 2nd (1 spot)
1995: Rockets, 11th / Magic, 3rd (8 spots)
1994: Rockets, 6th / Knicks, 2nd (4 spots)
1993: Bulls, 2nd / Suns, 4th (2 spots)
1992: Bulls, 1st / Blazers, 2nd (1 spot)
1991: Bulls, 1st / Lakers, 3rd (2 spots)
1990: Pistons, 3rd / Blazers, 4th (1 spot)
1989: Pistons, 4th / Lakers, 3rd (1 spot)
1988: Lakers, 2nd / Pistons, 3rd (1 spot)

Via RealGM Staff Report

[23artest23]

Truth is that the Pacers started off the year with bad injury luck. They started 10-15 I'm wanting to say with much of that due to the injuries. Run the numbers back from January or mid December and I'd bet that the disparity shrinks quite considerably.

[itsxtray]

Truth is that the Pacers started off the year with bad injury luck. They started 10-15 I'm wanting to say with much of that due to the injuries. Run the numbers back from January or mid December and I'd bet that the disparity shrinks quite considerably.

I started from December 5th, which is when the Pacers actually turned things around. Since then, the Thunder are 52–9 with a 13.3 net rating, while the Pacers are 41–18 with a 4.8 net rating, a difference of 8.5.

From January 1st, the Thunder are 41–9 with a 13.2 net rating, and the Pacers are 34–14 with a 5.3 net rating, making it a 7.9 difference.

Either way, it’s lopsided on paper. For what it’s worth, the Thunder had an 8.9 net rating gap over the Nuggets and still got taken to seven, so it’s not impossible for the Pacers to pull off a win.

[Jax_23]

It wasn't even Game 1, zero games were played, and you call it a "mismatch?"

How'd that workout for ya?

When will the pretentious analytics nerds (who clearly never played the sport IRL) realize that basketball is more than just numbers. This isn't Algebra.