2025 NBA FINALS: #1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #4 Indiana Pacers (IND leads 1-0)

[jkvonny]

I’m so excited for this series to get underway. Most NBA media is already writing the obituary for IND. I don’t think it’s going to be as lopsided as these folks think

If it isn't then the OKC coach needs to be fired ASAP. An average coach would wrap this up in 5 at worst

Fired?

Don't be ridiculous.

Also, I picked OKC in 6.

But, wouldn't be entirely shocked if Indiana pulls of the upset. They are deep like OKC, well coached (big coaching advantage), quick pace on offense, more playoff experienced than OKC (less brain farts, etc), etc.

Indy is a very good team as well
OKC is more talented.

[scrabbarista]

I'm going to go Thunder in 6, but that's hoping for Nesmith at 100%. If he's not, forget about it.

[Backcountry]

I picked OKC in 6, but this series also has the potential to make Tyrese Haliburton a legend.

[ryan in Maine]

Indy officially the fun team lol

[Mavrelous]

NBA dropped a hype video
https://youtu.be/0sW5tgF3x94?si=AFehUargGegKGCx6

[Revived]

And they work off Tyrese, who will get shut down by the Thunder. He goes, the Pacers go. They don't have a secondary playmaker like the Thunder do.

Who’s the Thunder secondary playmaker, Jalen Williams? Pacers have Siakam and Nembhard who are just as good a secondary playmakers and secondary options as Jalen Williams.

Siakam is an actual multi-time All Star as well.

[Patches Perry]

Alright fellow basketball loving humans, we have arrived. Good luck friends, see you on the other side.

[AFM]

Acted a little goofy and went Pacers in 7. Fk it.

[scrabbarista]

Honestly, if I were a gambler and could get -700 or -800, I'd put every dollar I could spare on OKC.

But I'm rooting for IND, and may the best team win.

[boomershadow]

I looked back at the thread for Pacers vs. Bucks in round one and RealGm voting didn't have the Pacers getting out of the first round or even taking it to seven games. So I think the overall opinion here of what is gonna happen might not be that predictive.

[kodo]

I'm going to go Thunder in 6, but that's hoping for Nesmith at 100%. If he's not, forget about it.

Is Nesmith injured? That's huge.

[Dadouv47]

Thunder in 5. Took my 3rd xanax of the day but I'm 100% relaxed and confident.

[bbms]

Thunder in 5. Took my 3rd xanax of the day but I'm 100% relaxed and confident.

[Curmudgeon]

Well, the Thunder have a GM from Concord and a coach from Leominster. So they are the next best thing to the Celtics.

[scrabbarista]

I'm going to go Thunder in 6, but that's hoping for Nesmith at 100%. If he's not, forget about it.

Is Nesmith injured? That's huge.

It's ambiguous. Hurt his ankle in Game 3.

[boomershadow]

I'm going to go Thunder in 6, but that's hoping for Nesmith at 100%. If he's not, forget about it.

Is Nesmith injured? That's huge.

Rolled his ankle in game 3 verses Knicks. Still played, but didn't look the same guarding Brunson the rest of the series. Had to put Nembhard back on him full time for the last game.

[Nuntius]

I'm going to go Thunder in 6, but that's hoping for Nesmith at 100%. If he's not, forget about it.

Is Nesmith injured? That's huge.

He rolled his ankle during game 4. He did eventually return in the game and he did play the next two but he only played 16 and 20 minutes respectively in those games. We'll see how it goes. Maybe the rest helped him.

PS: The rest are right, it was game 3.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

I'm just gonna say this. While OKC has been favored in every series in the playoffs, the Pacers have been the underdogs all playoffs long. They have defeated three straight teams - yes, even the Bucks - who had higher SRS and Net Rtg to get here. They have won the first two games on the road in both of the previous series, including vs a #1 seeded Cavs team and a Knicks team that had just defeated the defending champs.

Looking at some numbers for the Pacers and Thunder.

Throughout the playoffs so far, the Pacers have scored more efficiently than the the Thunder as a team:

61.2% TS
40.1% 3P on 33.4 attempts per game
49.7% FG on 85.4 attempts per game

vs

57% TS
33.6% 3P on 37.4 attempts per game
46.4% FG on 92.1 attempts per game

It's a significant gap in 3P% in particular.

The Pacers also have a slim assist-to-turnover ratio advantage:

28.1:12.7(2.21 to 1) vs 25.3:11.8(2.14 to 1)

which, as slim as it, seems notable simply because one of the ways the Thunder are the most dangerous is when they clamp down defensively and force turnovers. The Pacers have been one of the best ball-protection teams in the playoffs, and that's going to be important here.

Defensively, the Thunder are better, but one thing the Pacers have going for them is that they have the perimeter size to match up with the Thunder. The Thunder have lots of 6'5' and 6'6' guys from SF to PG and that has caused some matchup issues for their opponents in previous rounds, but the Pacers also have a bunch of 6'5' and 6'6' guys from Hali to Nembhard to Nesmith to Mathurin to Sheppard...McConnell is the only one who doesn't have the size.

And in the frontcourt, Turner and Siakam are both shooting 40%+ from 3 in the playoffs and they both have the athleticism to drive by a closeout defender, and while Holmgren can certainly cover that ground, I'm not sure if Hartenstein is a guy you want having to close out to the 3P line here.

They also have a coaching advantage IMO, as Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the game.

And I think they match up very well:

Turner / Walker
Siakam / Toppin
Nesmith / Mathurin
Nembhard / Sheppard
Haliburton / McConnell

Hartenstein / Jay.Williams
Holmgren / Wiggins
Dort / Wallace
Jal.Williams / Joe
SGA / Caruso

OKC are obviously favored, but I think there are reasons to think the Pacers have a shot.

[RB34]

Finally! It’s today!

[darkse1d]

Don't really care much for this series and probably won't watch but I'm really interested to see the numbers/ratings for this game.