2025 NBA FINALS: #1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #4 Indiana Pacers (IND leads 1-0)

[azcatz11]

The poster 'Tyler Durden' bet the OKC...Pacers win big tonight!

[Dadouv47]

Don't really care much for this series and probably won't watch but I'm really interested to see the numbers/ratings for this game.

I don't understand why some fans care that much about the ratings

[scrabbarista]

I'm just gonna say this. While OKC has been favored in every series in the playoffs, the Pacers have been the underdogs all playoffs long. They have defeated three straight teams - yes, even the Bucks - who had higher SRS and Net Rtg to get here. They have won the first two games on the road in both of the previous series, including vs a #1 seeded Cavs team and a Knicks team that had just defeated the defending champs.

Looking at some numbers for the Pacers and Thunder.

Throughout the playoffs so far, the Pacers have scored more efficiently than the the Thunder as a team:

61.2% TS
40.1% 3P on 33.4 attempts per game
49.7% FG on 85.4 attempts per game

vs

57% TS
33.6% 3P on 37.4 attempts per game
46.4% FG on 92.1 attempts per game

It's a significant gap in 3P% in particular.

The Pacers also have a slim assist-to-turnover ratio advantage:

28.1:12.7(2.21 to 1) vs 25.3:11.8(2.14 to 1)

which, as slim as it, seems notable simply because one of the ways the Thunder are the most dangerous is when they clamp down defensively and force turnovers. The Pacers have been one of the best ball-protection teams in the playoffs, and that's going to be important here.

Defensively, the Thunder are better, but one thing the Pacers have going for them is that they have the perimeter size to match up with the Thunder. The Thunder have lots of 6'5' and 6'6' guys from SF to PG and that has caused some matchup issues for their opponents in previous rounds, but the Pacers also have a bunch of 6'5' and 6'6' guys from Hali to Nembhard to Nesmith to Mathurin to Sheppard...McConnell is the only one who doesn't have the size.

And in the frontcourt, Turner and Siakam are both shooting 40%+ from 3 in the playoffs and they both have the athleticism to drive by a closeout defender, and while Holmgren can certainly cover that ground, I'm not sure if Hartenstein is a guy you want having to close out to the 3P line here.

They also have a coaching advantage IMO, as Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the game.

And I think they match up very well:

Turner / Walker
Siakam / Toppin
Nesmith / Mathurin
Nembhard / Sheppard
Haliburton / McConnell

Hartenstein / Jay.Williams
Holmgren / Wiggins
Dort / Wallace
Jal.Williams / Joe
SGA / Caruso

OKC are obviously favored, but I think there are reasons to think the Pacers have a shot.

Excellent post!

Not trying to be facetious here, I promise, but it legitimately made me feel better about my OKC in 6 pick, as opposed to 4 or 5.

And, yes, of course they have a shot. I'd say it's a long one!

[PlatinumState]

Whoever wins game 1 is winning the series

[bbms]

Don't really care much for this series and probably won't watch but I'm really interested to see the numbers/ratings for this game.

I don't understand why some fans care that much about the ratings

that's because they're worried about how much billionaires will make off this game.

the other day a "the athletic daily" came out saying it really doesn't matter the ratings. that viewership of nuggets rose 32% after 2023 finals. nba's money is already guaranteed in a 10 year contract yada yada

for those who aren't too busy counting billionaire's money, enjoy the show!

there'll happen some basketball of the future from both sides. both legit!

[ArksNetsSince99]

Honestly, if I were a gambler and could get -700 or -800, I'd put every dollar I could spare on OKC.

But I'm rooting for IND, and may the best team win.

Exactly the same feelings

Mighty Pacers make it happen just ONE MORE TIME !!!

LETS GOOOOOOOOOO

[Backcountry]

Don't really care much for this series and probably won't watch but I'm really interested to see the numbers/ratings for this game.

I don't understand why some fans care that much about the ratings

Other than network and advertising executives, why does anybody care about ratings, let alone be "really interested" in them. Nothing screams boring life more than desperately waiting for the viewership ratings to drop...

[JustBuzzin]

Whoever wins tonight will win the series.

[RunOKC]

i think tonight will be close

good luck pacer bros

[MoneyTalks41890]

Whoever wins tonight will be up a game

[Nuntius]

Don't really care much for this series and probably won't watch but I'm really interested to see the numbers/ratings for this game.

I don't understand why some fans care that much about the ratings

Gotta feed the billionaires over on ABC.

[MoneyTalks41890]

I love when people get on here and announce we can ignore their opinions because they don’t actually like basketball.

[SlimShady83]

Thunder in 6 games, but if it goes to 7 games I give it to Pacers.

[Revived]

Siakam is a bad FT shooter (66% in the playoffs this year), Thunder need to hack the hell out of him anytime he’s getting into a groove imo.

[azcatz11]

Whoever wins tonight will be up a game

This is analysis folks

[RB34]

Don't really care much for this series and probably won't watch but I'm really interested to see the numbers/ratings for this game.

I don't understand why some fans care that much about the ratings

A lot of “fans” are just there for the narratives and the soap opera. They don’t actually like basketball.

[WeLikeOurGuys]

I like the Pacers squad, but they're going to need Haliburton to play out of his mind if they want to win this series. I just can’t see OKC allowing that to happen with all the defenders they can throw at him. Nembhard, Mathurin, and Nesmith will really need to step up—but those guys could easily get into foul trouble. Plus, OKC’s size will be a huge problem for the Pacers on the boards. I’m hoping for a competitive Finals, but it could get ugly.

[Tnasty4l]

LET'S GO PACERS!!!

[MoneyTalks41890]

Cason starting, Hart coming off the bench

[Dadouv47]

Cason starting, Hart coming off the bench

just worried about early fouls from Chet but good call from Coach D to start that 5