2025 NBA FINALS: #1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #4 Indiana Pacers (Series tied 1-1)

[xBulletproof]

Indy dominated the boards in game 1 56-39. This is the team that had trouble cleaning up the boards against Knicks. This was a factor in their come back. I don't see them being able to do that again.

Rebounding is much too contextual and nuanced to blindly look at like this. OKC forced 25 turnovers, and thus shot way more shots, but because OKC missed those shots, Indy racked up the defensive boards. They had the same offensive rebounds basically.

There is no chance Indy turns the ball over 25 times again, which means that they won't have a massive defensive rebounding edge and OKC likely "wins" the rebounding battle. However, Indy will likely have a substantially better offensive game because they will get more shots up without turning the ball over 25 times and likely score double digit more points where as in game 1 they didn't even get shots up in those situations.

IMO this series comes down almost entirely to transition defense. If OKC can't score 20+ppg off turnovers and in transition every game they have no chance and if they are lucky will push it 6 games. If they can score 20+ every game off turnovers on the break then they'll win going away in 5 or 6 games.

Kudos. So much better than the random .... "well they won't shoot that good again" or similar simple takes. See them all the time. The other end of this to me that you forgot was that OKC switched from a two bigs starting lineup to one. It was the first thought I had when I saw they made the change, was that the Pacers have rebounding issues. Something you could take advantage of, and they gave up that opportunity right off the bat.

It'll be interesting to see if they go back to the 2 bigs lineups.

[___Rand___]

Indy dominated the boards in game 1 56-39. This is the team that had trouble cleaning up the boards against Knicks. This was a factor in their come back. I don't see them being able to do that again.

Rebounding is much too contextual and nuanced to blindly look at like this. OKC forced 25 turnovers, and thus shot way more shots, but because OKC missed those shots, Indy racked up the defensive boards. They had the same offensive rebounds basically.

There is no chance Indy turns the ball over 25 times again, which means that they won't have a massive defensive rebounding edge and OKC likely "wins" the rebounding battle. However, Indy will likely have a substantially better offensive game because they will get more shots up without turning the ball over 25 times and likely score double digit more points where as in game 1 they didn't even get shots up in those situations.

IMO this series comes down almost entirely to transition defense. If OKC can't score 20+ppg off turnovers and in transition every game they have no chance and if they are lucky will push it 6 games. If they can score 20+ every game off turnovers on the break then they'll win going away in 5 or 6 games.

Kudos. So much better than the random .... "well they won't shoot that good again" or similar simple takes. See them all the time. The other end of this to me that you forgot was that OKC switched from a two bigs starting lineup to one. It was the first thought I had when I saw they made the change, was that the Pacers have rebounding issues. Something you could take advantage of, and they gave up that opportunity right off the bat.

It'll be interesting to see if they go back to the 2 bigs lineups.

That's my point. I don't know how to look up all the team stats but I'm pretty sure Indy's always had trouble with rebounding through the playoffs in each of their series. That they've been able to dominate the boards in game 1, regardless of the excuses, is a reversal of the fortunes.

[ForeverTFC]

Rebounding is much too contextual and nuanced to blindly look at like this. OKC forced 25 turnovers, and thus shot way more shots, but because OKC missed those shots, Indy racked up the defensive boards. They had the same offensive rebounds basically.

There is no chance Indy turns the ball over 25 times again, which means that they won't have a massive defensive rebounding edge and OKC likely "wins" the rebounding battle. However, Indy will likely have a substantially better offensive game because they will get more shots up without turning the ball over 25 times and likely score double digit more points where as in game 1 they didn't even get shots up in those situations.

IMO this series comes down almost entirely to transition defense. If OKC can't score 20+ppg off turnovers and in transition every game they have no chance and if they are lucky will push it 6 games. If they can score 20+ every game off turnovers on the break then they'll win going away in 5 or 6 games.

Kudos. So much better than the random .... "well they won't shoot that good again" or similar simple takes. See them all the time. The other end of this to me that you forgot was that OKC switched from a two bigs starting lineup to one. It was the first thought I had when I saw they made the change, was that the Pacers have rebounding issues. Something you could take advantage of, and they gave up that opportunity right off the bat.

It'll be interesting to see if they go back to the 2 bigs lineups.

That's my point. I don't know how to look up all the team stats but I'm pretty sure Indy's always had trouble with rebounding through the playoffs in each of their series. That they've been able to dominate the boards in game 1, regardless of the excuses, is a reversal of the fortunes.

The raw differential is related to the number of shots OKC put up due to all the turnovers they forced as the other poster mentioned, but you are right that the Pacers also rebounded much better than usual: that was their 5th best defensive rebounding performance of the playoffs and best offensive rebounding performance of the playoffs.

What you're missing though is that OKC is not a good rebounding team: 19th in the RS and 12th in the playoffs, one spot below the Pacers. Pacers probably don't rebound THAT well again - especially offensively - but stats say they will have a better time rebounding against the Thunder than what you saw in the playoffs because the Thunder are a similar/worse rebounding team.

[50yrceltsfan]

Pacers are the better team. SVG is great, but the next 3 guys I'd take on both rosters are Siakam, Hali, and Nembhard. They got experience and confidence, execute in the clutch, and have the better coach. They're probably winning game 2 like they did against the Knicks.

[Revived]

I’m still baffled by how the Pacers won the game. That entire first half they looked like a team that doesn’t even belong in the playoffs. Just crazy.

[Jta444]

This series is closer than what many people have said the past week. The matchups are very close.

Two top 10 players in the league with high impact in SGA vs Haliburton

Two experienced vets with championship experience in Caruso vs Siakam

Versatile big men in Hartenstein/Chet vs Turner/Toppin

Great defensive players who can score when needed in Dort/Jalen Williams vs Nembhard/Nesmith

Good bench pieces Cason Wallace/Joe/Wiggins vs TJ McConnell/Mathurin/Sheppard

Great coaching Daigneault vs Carlisle

I don’t see any matchup where one team has the clear upper hand over the other.

We got ourselves a series

I got the Pacers in 6 or 7. Hali is just on another level of confidence right now and he might just match the production of the MVP SGA. With that matchup a wash, I trust Siakam more than JDub/Chet at this point. Thunder got the way higher ceiling though and if they figure it out quick they will win it.

[Mrakar]

Still cant believe they looked at that Pacers challenge at the end where Wallace pushed Siakam out of bounds and called it marginal... Luckily Pacers won and no1 is mentioning it now, otherwise it would be all over twitter.

Meh. Pacers fan here and I have no issue with the decision. Siakam was falling in an attempt to get the ball before Wallace nudged him. He didn't dislodge him or anything so I have no issue calling it marginal contact. It was still correct of Rick to challenge that because a reversal would be huge (plus, we had two timeouts remaining and didn't even need to use them all) but I'm okay with the no-call here.

He wasnt falling if wallace didnt push him, he would manage to stay in 100%.

If you are dribbling ball and someone pushes you and u fall out of bounds or make couple of steps(travel) that should be a foul. I understand them not calling it in that case since they are letting everyting go in last minutes of the game, but looking at replay and staying with that decision is baffling to me...

[No-more-rings]

I mean people really ought to just see how game 2 goes before jumping to major conclusions or shifts in their original prediction. I mean myself like many, assumed OKC would win fairly easily due to the talent gap, however the less talented team does win sometimes. I admit I am starting to wonder though if I was looking too much at regular season performance, while also kind of not recognizing how deep Indiana really is. I mean SGA is the only reason why OKC is considered more talented right?

[Edrees]

Haliburton was smiling after losing game 5 to the Knicks.

His had a “It’s okay, we’re ending this in 6 vibe.” to it.

Maybe SGA has the same mentality? I can’t speak on his confidence/competitiveness to say. Simply saying a smile doesn’t necessarily mean he doesn’t care or something.

That picture is from the Denver series

Gotcha…and we saw how that turned out. So yea, means nothing.

That picture is a result of some Denver fans in attendence trash talking him. Like "Ill have the last laugh" I dont think any Indy fans were doing the same so it doesn't apply.

[davidfr94]

This series is closer than what many people have said the past week. The matchups are very close.

Two top 10 players in the league with high impact in SGA vs Haliburton

Two experienced vets with championship experience in Caruso vs Siakam

Versatile big men in Hartenstein/Chet vs Turner/Toppin

Great defensive players who can score when needed in Dort/Jalen Williams vs Nembhard/Nesmith

Good bench pieces Cason Wallace/Joe/Wiggins vs TJ McConnell/Mathurin/Sheppard

Great coaching Daigneault vs Carlisle

I don’t see any matchup where one team has the clear upper hand over the other.

We got ourselves a series

I got the Pacers in 6 or 7. Hali is just on another level of confidence right now and he might just match the production of the MVP SGA. With that matchup a wash, I trust Siakam more than JDub/Chet at this point. Thunder got the way higher ceiling though and if they figure it out quick they will win it.

We really need Turner to play well. When he does we are really tough to beat.

Sent from my 2409BRN2CY using RealGM mobile app

[Tnasty4l]

This series is closer than what many people have said the past week. The matchups are very close.

Two top 10 players in the league with high impact in SGA vs Haliburton

Two experienced vets with championship experience in Caruso vs Siakam

Versatile big men in Hartenstein/Chet vs Turner/Toppin

Great defensive players who can score when needed in Dort/Jalen Williams vs Nembhard/Nesmith

Good bench pieces Cason Wallace/Joe/Wiggins vs TJ McConnell/Mathurin/Sheppard

Great coaching Daigneault vs Carlisle

I don’t see any matchup where one team has the clear upper hand over the other.

We got ourselves a series

I got the Pacers in 6 or 7. Hali is just on another level of confidence right now and he might just match the production of the MVP SGA. With that matchup a wash, I trust Siakam more than JDub/Chet at this point. Thunder got the way higher ceiling though and if they figure it out quick they will win it.

I read in another thread that OKC would win because they had better talent. I said what makes you think that:
SGA Hali Siakam J-Dub Turner
Nemhard Nesmith Dort Chet Toppin
Wallace Caruso McConnell IHart Mathurin
Bryant Wiggins Joe Sheppard Walker
11-9 advantage Pacers.

[Mavrelous]

This series is closer than what many people have said the past week. The matchups are very close.

Two top 10 players in the league with high impact in SGA vs Haliburton

Two experienced vets with championship experience in Caruso vs Siakam

Versatile big men in Hartenstein/Chet vs Turner/Toppin

Great defensive players who can score when needed in Dort/Jalen Williams vs Nembhard/Nesmith

Good bench pieces Cason Wallace/Joe/Wiggins vs TJ McConnell/Mathurin/Sheppard

Great coaching Daigneault vs Carlisle

I don’t see any matchup where one team has the clear upper hand over the other.

We got ourselves a series

I got the Pacers in 6 or 7. Hali is just on another level of confidence right now and he might just match the production of the MVP SGA. With that matchup a wash, I trust Siakam more than JDub/Chet at this point. Thunder got the way higher ceiling though and if they figure it out quick they will win it.

This is very simplistic (and wrong) way of looking at it
SGA is top 3, Hali is top 10 after this run, he wasn't considered top 10 before, and everyone has significant gap between SGA and Haliburton.
JDubb and Siakam are similar, both top 25 players, most would have JDub over Siakam.
Siakam is much bigger key to Raptors championship than Caruso to the Lakers.
Chet > Turner, it's not really close, and OKC have Hartenstein and JWill to boost, much better than Toppin/Bryant.
Caruso/Dort/Wallace > Nembhard/Nesmith/Sheppard, again it's not really close.

Carlsile > Diagnault, more experienced, more creative, and has lots of tools at his disposal.
If Pacers win they'd be overcoming a serious talent gap, maybe next year we'd be saying different things, Neismith will establish himself as a elite 3&D wing, Nembhard as great 3&D combo guard, but before this series started, there was a significant talent gap between the 2 teams.

[xBulletproof]

This series is closer than what many people have said the past week. The matchups are very close.

Two top 10 players in the league with high impact in SGA vs Haliburton

Two experienced vets with championship experience in Caruso vs Siakam

Versatile big men in Hartenstein/Chet vs Turner/Toppin

Great defensive players who can score when needed in Dort/Jalen Williams vs Nembhard/Nesmith

Good bench pieces Cason Wallace/Joe/Wiggins vs TJ McConnell/Mathurin/Sheppard

Great coaching Daigneault vs Carlisle

I don’t see any matchup where one team has the clear upper hand over the other.

We got ourselves a series

I got the Pacers in 6 or 7. Hali is just on another level of confidence right now and he might just match the production of the MVP SGA. With that matchup a wash, I trust Siakam more than JDub/Chet at this point. Thunder got the way higher ceiling though and if they figure it out quick they will win it.

If Pacers win they'd be overcoming a serious talent gap, maybe next year we'd be saying different things, Neismith will establish himself as a elite 3&D wing, Nembhard as great 3&D combo guard, but before this series started, there was a significant talent gap between the 2 teams.

Nesmith is an elite 3&D wing. He literally shot 50-40-90 this year. The defense part is obvious. There's a reason people called it being placed in Nembhell when you're guarded by Nembhard. He's been doing that for 2 years now. The stats put up when he's the primary defender has been crazy.

How you can say Turner isn't even close to Chet is wild. That may be true one day, but today? Not at all.

You said we may say they're elite next year, but before the series started there was a huge talent gap. The issue with that is no "talent gap" is going to be bridged in a couple weeks. That's wild to even say. The only thing that can happen is your recognition of that talent can be changed. The talent will be the same as it was before the series. This is a byproduct of the Pacers being ignored by everyone all year. For **** sales, most people thought they'd lose to the Bucks.

I don't see a talent gap as much as I do a recognition gap. Attention gap.

[Mavrelous]

This series is closer than what many people have said the past week. The matchups are very close.

Two top 10 players in the league with high impact in SGA vs Haliburton

Two experienced vets with championship experience in Caruso vs Siakam

Versatile big men in Hartenstein/Chet vs Turner/Toppin

Great defensive players who can score when needed in Dort/Jalen Williams vs Nembhard/Nesmith

Good bench pieces Cason Wallace/Joe/Wiggins vs TJ McConnell/Mathurin/Sheppard

Great coaching Daigneault vs Carlisle

I don’t see any matchup where one team has the clear upper hand over the other.

We got ourselves a series

I got the Pacers in 6 or 7. Hali is just on another level of confidence right now and he might just match the production of the MVP SGA. With that matchup a wash, I trust Siakam more than JDub/Chet at this point. Thunder got the way higher ceiling though and if they figure it out quick they will win it.

If Pacers win they'd be overcoming a serious talent gap, maybe next year we'd be saying different things, Neismith will establish himself as a elite 3&D wing, Nembhard as great 3&D combo guard, but before this series started, there was a significant talent gap between the 2 teams.

Nesmith is an elite 3&D wing. He literally shot 50-40-90 this year. The defense part is obvious. There's a reason people called it being placed in Nembhell when you're guarded by Nembhard. He's been doing that for 2 years now. The stats put up when he's the primary defender has been crazy.

How you can say Turner isn't even close to Chet is wild. That may be true one day, but today? Not at all.

You said we may say they're elite next year, but before the series started there was a huge talent gap. The issue with that is no "talent gap" is going to be bridged in a couple weeks. That's wild to even say. The only thing that can happen is your recognition of that talent can be changed. The talent will be the same as it was before the series. This is a byproduct of the Pacers being ignored by everyone all year. For **** sales, most people thought they'd lose to the Bucks.

I don't see a talent gap as much as I do a recognition gap. Attention gap.

Names and reputation are built not given...
Indiana was average defensive (13th) team and above average offensive team (9th), 50 wins 4th seed in the east, last year people attributed their run to NYK injuries, if they had elite 3&D wins and elite rim protecter, why were they average defensively.
If they win they will earn that reputation, they already built good reputation with this run.

[SA37]

I’m still baffled by how the Pacers won the game. That entire first half they looked like a team that doesn’t even belong in the playoffs. Just crazy.

Yeah, I watched the game and just couldn't figure out how they were able to even stay in the game, much less be in a position to win it. Lu Dort hit 3-4 big 3s when the Pacers pushed into single digits and OKC forced so many turnovers the Pacers had relatively limited opportunities.

[tamaraw08]

Indiana is THE definition of doing it fully as a team. 6 guys in double figures with all of them attempting at least 9FGA with Pascal leading the pack at just 15. In comparison to the Thunder who had just 4 guys with SGA (30) and Jdub (19) accounting for just over half of their 98 FGA.

I think if your going to rely that much their star duo to carry the offense, you need to start Hartenstein not Chet to take advantage of his screening ability to create space.

All great points especially about shot attempts, ball movement etc.
But the bottom line too is Pacers are always hitting 3’s, and they will never be out and get clobbered as long as they hit 38% or better from there.
Rooting for the underdog Pacers but they might be due for a cold spell.
It happened to OKC, TWolves, Lakers, Boston etc.

[Optms]

I mean people really ought to just see how game 2 goes before jumping to major conclusions or shifts in their original prediction. I mean myself like many, assumed OKC would win fairly easily due to the talent gap, however the less talented team does win sometimes. I admit I am starting to wonder though if I was looking too much at regular season performance, while also kind of not recognizing how deep Indiana really is. I mean SGA is the only reason why OKC is considered more talented right?

The most talented team does not always win. Did you say the 2011 Mavericks were more talented than Miami? Or the 2004 Pistons?

[SA37]

This series is closer than what many people have said the past week. The matchups are very close.

Two top 10 players in the league with high impact in SGA vs Haliburton

Two experienced vets with championship experience in Caruso vs Siakam

Versatile big men in Hartenstein/Chet vs Turner/Toppin

Great defensive players who can score when needed in Dort/Jalen Williams vs Nembhard/Nesmith

Good bench pieces Cason Wallace/Joe/Wiggins vs TJ McConnell/Mathurin/Sheppard

Great coaching Daigneault vs Carlisle

I don’t see any matchup where one team has the clear upper hand over the other.

We got ourselves a series

I got the Pacers in 6 or 7. Hali is just on another level of confidence right now and he might just match the production of the MVP SGA. With that matchup a wash, I trust Siakam more than JDub/Chet at this point. Thunder got the way higher ceiling though and if they figure it out quick they will win it.

This is very simplistic (and wrong) way of looking at it
SGA is top 3, Hali is top 10 after this run, he wasn't considered top 10 before, and everyone has significant gap between SGA and Haliburton.
JDubb and Siakam are similar, both top 25 players, most would have JDub over Siakam.
Siakam is much bigger key to Raptors championship than Caruso to the Lakers.
Chet > Turner, it's not really close, and OKC have Hartenstein and JWill to boost, much better than Toppin/Bryant.
Caruso/Dort/Wallace > Nembhard/Nesmith/Sheppard, again it's not really close.

Carlsile > Diagnault, more experienced, more creative, and has lots of tools at his disposal.
If Pacers win they'd be overcoming a serious talent gap, maybe next year we'd be saying different things, Neismith will establish himself as a elite 3&D wing, Nembhard as great 3&D combo guard, but before this series started, there was a significant talent gap between the 2 teams.

Speaking of simplistic ways of looking at things, this entire take is X team made it to the Finals, therefore their players must all be top-X.

The sum of the parts of both teams is greater than their individual talents, save for SGA and Haliburton. But SGA is neither top-3, nor is Haliburton a top-10 player. And forget Siakam being top-25. For context, I say this in the sense that, if every player became a FA and teams had to put the most competitive team together over the next 2 seasons, these guys don't get selected in the ranges you've mentioned.

This type of thinking is how we've gotten to the point where people think role players like Jrue Holiday, Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green, Jarett Allen, Mikal Bridges...etc are top-25 players when they're really just the product of a specific system/team.

[MoneyTalks41890]

This series is closer than what many people have said the past week. The matchups are very close.

Two top 10 players in the league with high impact in SGA vs Haliburton

Two experienced vets with championship experience in Caruso vs Siakam

Versatile big men in Hartenstein/Chet vs Turner/Toppin

Great defensive players who can score when needed in Dort/Jalen Williams vs Nembhard/Nesmith

Good bench pieces Cason Wallace/Joe/Wiggins vs TJ McConnell/Mathurin/Sheppard

Great coaching Daigneault vs Carlisle

I don’t see any matchup where one team has the clear upper hand over the other.

We got ourselves a series

I got the Pacers in 6 or 7. Hali is just on another level of confidence right now and he might just match the production of the MVP SGA. With that matchup a wash, I trust Siakam more than JDub/Chet at this point. Thunder got the way higher ceiling though and if they figure it out quick they will win it.

This is very simplistic (and wrong) way of looking at it
SGA is top 3, Hali is top 10 after this run, he wasn't considered top 10 before, and everyone has significant gap between SGA and Haliburton.
JDubb and Siakam are similar, both top 25 players, most would have JDub over Siakam.
Siakam is much bigger key to Raptors championship than Caruso to the Lakers.
Chet > Turner, it's not really close, and OKC have Hartenstein and JWill to boost, much better than Toppin/Bryant.
Caruso/Dort/Wallace > Nembhard/Nesmith/Sheppard, again it's not really close.

Carlsile > Diagnault, more experienced, more creative, and has lots of tools at his disposal.
If Pacers win they'd be overcoming a serious talent gap, maybe next year we'd be saying different things, Neismith will establish himself as a elite 3&D wing, Nembhard as great 3&D combo guard, but before this series started, there was a significant talent gap between the 2 teams.

Speaking of simplistic ways of looking at things, this entire take is X team made it to the Finals, therefore their players must all be top-X.

The sum of the parts of both teams is greater than their individual talents, save for SGA and Haliburton. But SGA is neither top-3, nor is Haliburton a top-10 player. And forget Siakam being top-25. For context, I say this in the sense that, if every player became a FA and teams had to put the most competitive team together over the next 2 seasons, these guys don't get selected in the ranges you've mentioned.

This type of thinking is how we've gotten to the point where people think role players like Jrue Holiday, Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green, Jarett Allen, Mikal Bridges...etc are top-25 players when they're really just the product of a specific system/team.

SGA is a top 3 player in the league and he’s not 3.

[No-more-rings]

I mean people really ought to just see how game 2 goes before jumping to major conclusions or shifts in their original prediction. I mean myself like many, assumed OKC would win fairly easily due to the talent gap, however the less talented team does win sometimes. I admit I am starting to wonder though if I was looking too much at regular season performance, while also kind of not recognizing how deep Indiana really is. I mean SGA is the only reason why OKC is considered more talented right?

The most talented team does not always win. Did you say the 2011 Mavericks were more talented than Miami? Or the 2004 Pistons?

Are we even disagreeing?